The initial head-to-head had Ernst up by 1 point. In my view that should be the starting point of what gets reported. The hypothetical result after providing info is standard practice, but may not be a realistic reflection of actual campaign messaging conditions.
She’s earned them. Her wishy-washyness (highly technical political jargon there) on the Pete Hegseth nomination, followed by her snide “Well, we’re all gong to die” to her constituents and then her snide non-apology for that statement have shown that she has no concern (or respect) for the voters who elected her. Right now Americans can’t stand “just another politician “, and that’s exactly how she appears.
Do we think we have more of a chance to win the IA senate seat with or without Ernst? My guess is even with any latent incumbency/name ID advantage that she's become pretty toxic for "we're all gonna die" and (to hyperpartisans) for supporting Hegseth, while also having softer MAGA support for not being awful ENOUGH. And so, someone more generic would be a lot harder to beat.
But then I guess I wonder if the statewide environment is as bad as the specials have been, if not Ernst is it better for us to go against someone like Ashley Hinson (still "moderate" so disfavored by the nutjobs) or Brenna Bird (a mouth foaming true believer)?
Ernst just might be the weakest Republican option of the three. Tough call with Bird but it's not as if there's "too far right" for Iowa voters anymore so that wouldn't be enough to stop Bird. Hinson would be the toughest Republican to beat, at least of these three.
Hinson is what Ernst was before her latest controversies that were mentioned above. Brenna Byrd was the candidate that every Dem was hoping would run for Governor. Tom Miller did not highlight some of her ties to Steve King. I think Tom Miller for whatever reason just thought he would defeat her again as he did in the past. Unaware that the political climate had changed.
Ernst would be in better shape than Byrd, but in worse shape than Hinson. Hinson is a blank page to most people around our state. We will see whether our nominee can get eastern Iowa (my part of the state) voting Democratic again. I think the person (Turek) that has the best message that appeals to the broadest swath of voters is still learning the key issues. Norris has the resume. but she is still growing as a candidate, IMO. Wahls has an understanding of the issues, but I don't know if coming from one of the most liberal counties in the state will be helpful. Nathan Sage is a good enough person. He would make a good U.S. Senator. I'm not convinced that he expected Ernst to make some large gaffes, and he may have just wanted to run and become a rockstar amongst progressive leaders in the state while losing as a sacrificed lamb.
I think Zach Wahls has enough support to stay and be competitive in the primary. Possibly winning it. Turerk is trying to find a way to get Wahls out of the race, and Norris has enough connections around the state to win the primary if Tuek and Wahls start to joust.
It's great that The Downballot gets all this visibility from the special election posts, but they certainly attract some more outré perspectives on what Democrats need to do to win elections.
It takes a certain amount of self control not to pull a Barney Frank and respond as he did in this 2009 town hall:
WOMAN (after comparing Obama and the Affordable Care Act to Hitler and the Nazis):
My question to you is, why do you continue to support a Nazi policy?
BARNEY FRANK:
I am going to revert to my ethnic heritage and answer your question with a question: On what planet do you spend most of your time?
Barney Frank is Jewish and the woman asked him if he supported a Nazi policy as it relates to the Affordable Healthcare Act. Pretty bad form to ask a then-sitting Jewish Congressman anything related to Nazis, even if it’s about the ACA.
That said, a more direct response would have said, “I don’t agree this is a Nazi policy…” and then an explanation as to what the realistic impact of the ACA would be.
I don't think Barney's response was inappropriate at all given how absurd the comment was and his (perhaps slightly coded) reference to his jewishness.
I'm saying that I don't want to channel that moment when responding to sincere, if ridiculous, opinions from people who aren't regulars here.
Yes, that was more of a off the cuff comment by Frank. Nevertheless, you are arguing for a more fair and less divisive response, something the 2nd paragraph of mine was alluding to.
As crazy as people are when they ask these loaded questions, better not to talk down to them as it's only going to extend the problems.
Barney Frank’s response was pitch perfect! But I wouldn’t be surprised if, after the meeting, that deranged woman needed someone to explain his answer.
It doesn't hurt that #1. we are the out party #2. Spanberger is a VERY strong candidate and #3. Sears is a weak candidate. Unlike Youngkin she can't fool people into thinking she's a "moderate" Republican. Absolutely crucial in this pro business and heavily suburban state.
I'm usually pretty conservative in my projections, but I'm pretty bullish on this race. I think Spanbarger wins this by double digits, possibly by north of 15 points. There's a decent chance she carries a number of D legislative candidates to victory with her too.
Too bad we didn’t have fair legislative and congressional maps in place in NC last year. We’d be busy undoing everything Moore and Berger pushed through as Berger seethes.
If we win by 15 per cent, it would be THE largest margin of victory in a Virginia Gubernatorial Election for a Democrat since Albertis S Harrison back in 1961. And that goes back to the - albeit end of - days of the Byrd Organization.
True enough, but McConnell won by 17 in 2009 and VA is more D now than it was R then (if that makes sense) and I think the environment, particularly in a highly-educated state with a lot of government workers, will be a mirror inverse of that year.
As Chaz points out, a Virginia poll from AtlasIntel which ultimately reflected the results last fall had the state at D+3. We're supposed to believe the state shifted 6 points Republican after DOGE and Trump's unpopular policies, and as his national popularity has dropped?
I wonder what it's like to be a democrat in a place like Alabama State House district 11. The republican won there 89-11 yesterday lol. Impressive that a democrat even ran in such a hostile environment.
One of my fellow election workers from Somerville was moving to a similarly red county in Tennessee. He was actually rather excited, since he had already been appointed to the Election Commission, even though he hadn't moved yet. I guess State law requires a balance of Democrat and Republican members so they were taking any warm body for the Dem seats, even a newly transplanted Yankee.
UT: Could Rs try this map out or is the referendum more strict than I'm assuming (as in should Salt Lake City be kept whole or just not be sliced into oblivion and is a 4-way split for Salt Lake County okay so long as one district is entirely within it): https://davesredistricting.org/join/aeb68542-a1a5-4871-9e6a-7053909a3293
I think the referendum is stricter, that's why Gibson said she would implement her own redrawn maps if the UT legislature did not comply by this time next month.
They could try this instead. This map has only a 3-way split of Salt Lake County. The district entirely in it is Trump +6 (which is pretty much as red as possible for it), and the other three districts are all safely Republican.
Though to be fair, Dems would have a fairly good chance at winning a Trump+6 district entirely in Salt Lake County next year, considering how things are going with special elections.
LOL at this poll, even for an internal. I mean, Collins could certainly lose but I will be any amount of money that it's not by double digits, much less 16 points...
Those numbers look hilariously implausible! The best way to make sense of it I can see is that there are a lot of conservatives that are on the fence about her but will mostly come home in the end. Especially with RCV taken into account.
I do think Collins is more vulnerable than many people here, but I'd be truly shocked if she did much worse than ~45% even in a huge wave. I expect even in defeat she would do solidly better than 45% for the final round.
I don't believe that for a second. Makes me wonder if they accidentally flipped the numbers, since Planter could reasonably be at 32% right now due to his lack of name recognition.
Nevertheless, is Graham Platner considered the most credible Democratic Senate Candidate against Susan Collins?
Jordan Wood was the first real Senate candidate to announce months ago but it's him along with Platner, Tucker Favreau (no relationship to any of the Jon Favreau guys it seems) and Natasha Alcala although she doesn't have a website up last I checked.
1) There is no way Collins gets only 32% of the vote in 2026, so that puts this entire poll into question.
2) 48% of Maine voters supporting Platner as a first time candidate also is a red flag to be suspicious of.
3) If however, by some strange, inexplicable reason, it is accurate, then I now understand the panicked DailyCaller hit piece telling their Republican voting base to not vote for him a day after he launched his campaign for office.
I would REALLY love a nonpartisan poll testing Mills, Platner, Wood and Frey against Collins. No doubt Platner made an unexpectedly big splash, but I don’t think it’s big enough to get this kind of result.
Yeah, it's hard to even jump into conclusions just yet at this early in the ME-SEN race, especially considering there hasn't been a single Democratic Senate Candidate who has really broken through and dominated the campaign.
No doubt under pressure from the “justice department,” Louisiana will no longer defend the court-ordered map that created a second minority majority congressional district.
So Louisiana thinks that using race to put black communities in one district is impermissible and “abhorrent” but using race to split black communities into many districts is perfectly fine. Sounds like logic this Supreme Court can get behind.
The initial head-to-head had Ernst up by 1 point. In my view that should be the starting point of what gets reported. The hypothetical result after providing info is standard practice, but may not be a realistic reflection of actual campaign messaging conditions.
The more eye-opening number is that Ernst only got 43%, and even against no names she got 45%. Those are terrible numbers for a 2-term incumbent.
She’s earned them. Her wishy-washyness (highly technical political jargon there) on the Pete Hegseth nomination, followed by her snide “Well, we’re all gong to die” to her constituents and then her snide non-apology for that statement have shown that she has no concern (or respect) for the voters who elected her. Right now Americans can’t stand “just another politician “, and that’s exactly how she appears.
Shades of Mark Pryor's 2014 numbers here
Very different circumstances though regarding state trend previously, between Arkansas and Iowa
Do we think we have more of a chance to win the IA senate seat with or without Ernst? My guess is even with any latent incumbency/name ID advantage that she's become pretty toxic for "we're all gonna die" and (to hyperpartisans) for supporting Hegseth, while also having softer MAGA support for not being awful ENOUGH. And so, someone more generic would be a lot harder to beat.
But then I guess I wonder if the statewide environment is as bad as the specials have been, if not Ernst is it better for us to go against someone like Ashley Hinson (still "moderate" so disfavored by the nutjobs) or Brenna Bird (a mouth foaming true believer)?
Agree. Good points. So far from what I can see, it looks like Ernst.
Ernst just might be the weakest Republican option of the three. Tough call with Bird but it's not as if there's "too far right" for Iowa voters anymore so that wouldn't be enough to stop Bird. Hinson would be the toughest Republican to beat, at least of these three.
Hinson is what Ernst was before her latest controversies that were mentioned above. Brenna Byrd was the candidate that every Dem was hoping would run for Governor. Tom Miller did not highlight some of her ties to Steve King. I think Tom Miller for whatever reason just thought he would defeat her again as he did in the past. Unaware that the political climate had changed.
Ernst would be in better shape than Byrd, but in worse shape than Hinson. Hinson is a blank page to most people around our state. We will see whether our nominee can get eastern Iowa (my part of the state) voting Democratic again. I think the person (Turek) that has the best message that appeals to the broadest swath of voters is still learning the key issues. Norris has the resume. but she is still growing as a candidate, IMO. Wahls has an understanding of the issues, but I don't know if coming from one of the most liberal counties in the state will be helpful. Nathan Sage is a good enough person. He would make a good U.S. Senator. I'm not convinced that he expected Ernst to make some large gaffes, and he may have just wanted to run and become a rockstar amongst progressive leaders in the state while losing as a sacrificed lamb.
I think Zach Wahls has enough support to stay and be competitive in the primary. Possibly winning it. Turerk is trying to find a way to get Wahls out of the race, and Norris has enough connections around the state to win the primary if Tuek and Wahls start to joust.
It's great that The Downballot gets all this visibility from the special election posts, but they certainly attract some more outré perspectives on what Democrats need to do to win elections.
It takes a certain amount of self control not to pull a Barney Frank and respond as he did in this 2009 town hall:
WOMAN (after comparing Obama and the Affordable Care Act to Hitler and the Nazis):
My question to you is, why do you continue to support a Nazi policy?
BARNEY FRANK:
I am going to revert to my ethnic heritage and answer your question with a question: On what planet do you spend most of your time?
Barney Frank is Jewish and the woman asked him if he supported a Nazi policy as it relates to the Affordable Healthcare Act. Pretty bad form to ask a then-sitting Jewish Congressman anything related to Nazis, even if it’s about the ACA.
That said, a more direct response would have said, “I don’t agree this is a Nazi policy…” and then an explanation as to what the realistic impact of the ACA would be.
I don't think Barney's response was inappropriate at all given how absurd the comment was and his (perhaps slightly coded) reference to his jewishness.
I'm saying that I don't want to channel that moment when responding to sincere, if ridiculous, opinions from people who aren't regulars here.
Yes, that was more of a off the cuff comment by Frank. Nevertheless, you are arguing for a more fair and less divisive response, something the 2nd paragraph of mine was alluding to.
As crazy as people are when they ask these loaded questions, better not to talk down to them as it's only going to extend the problems.
Barney Frank’s response was pitch perfect! But I wouldn’t be surprised if, after the meeting, that deranged woman needed someone to explain his answer.
Of course!
Frank btw was great in Congress. He's always been a great attack dog and unrelenting when he fires back.
Morning VA poll from R garbage pollster. Spanberger by 5 but look at the internals. They have it at +3R what a joke https://x.com/chaznuttycombe/status/1960684833455088045?s=61&t=5copDbz1aPl7ASsRCUclLg
And he says it’s an internal.
Internal, all right – taken from where the sun never shines.
It wouldn't surprise me if Spanberger, should she not make a big campaign blunder, wins by more than 9 points.
It doesn't hurt that #1. we are the out party #2. Spanberger is a VERY strong candidate and #3. Sears is a weak candidate. Unlike Youngkin she can't fool people into thinking she's a "moderate" Republican. Absolutely crucial in this pro business and heavily suburban state.
I'm usually pretty conservative in my projections, but I'm pretty bullish on this race. I think Spanbarger wins this by double digits, possibly by north of 15 points. There's a decent chance she carries a number of D legislative candidates to victory with her too.
It's not Stein/Black Nazi yet, but it rhrymes. I'd say 12-ish margin.
Ah yes, Mark "Pizza n' Porn" Robinson.
Too bad we didn’t have fair legislative and congressional maps in place in NC last year. We’d be busy undoing everything Moore and Berger pushed through as Berger seethes.
If we win by 15 per cent, it would be THE largest margin of victory in a Virginia Gubernatorial Election for a Democrat since Albertis S Harrison back in 1961. And that goes back to the - albeit end of - days of the Byrd Organization.
True enough, but McConnell won by 17 in 2009 and VA is more D now than it was R then (if that makes sense) and I think the environment, particularly in a highly-educated state with a lot of government workers, will be a mirror inverse of that year.
R+3 and we are still up 5? Wow!
This is good news for Earle-Sears! /s
Earle-Sears is going the way of Sears-Roebuck.
Well, being that there are no Sears store locations in VA today, that about sums it up!
As Chaz points out, a Virginia poll from AtlasIntel which ultimately reflected the results last fall had the state at D+3. We're supposed to believe the state shifted 6 points Republican after DOGE and Trump's unpopular policies, and as his national popularity has dropped?
That, and the 2021 exit poll was D+2 by party ID which is probably about the Dem floor for 2025. Something like D+5 to D+7 seems more likely.
Interesting that the NH AG is appointed and confirmed by the Executive Council while the SoS is elected by the legislature.
I wonder what it's like to be a democrat in a place like Alabama State House district 11. The republican won there 89-11 yesterday lol. Impressive that a democrat even ran in such a hostile environment.
Yet even there Dems got a 22-point over-performance from the last election.
I'm assuming that means the Republican was unopposed last cycle?
They were indeed unopposed
And had been for decades - at least that’s what I remember Charles Gaba posting on Bluesky not too long ago.
Downballot says it was a D+5% change: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JGk1r1VXnxBrAIVHz1C5HTB5jxCO6Zw4QNPivdhyWHw/edit?gid=415249345#gid=415249345
One of my fellow election workers from Somerville was moving to a similarly red county in Tennessee. He was actually rather excited, since he had already been appointed to the Election Commission, even though he hadn't moved yet. I guess State law requires a balance of Democrat and Republican members so they were taking any warm body for the Dem seats, even a newly transplanted Yankee.
Umichvoter found the data for the district and it was 88 percent white and 1 percect Black with the rest being Hispanics and mixed-race.
So essentially votes like whites vote D vs R statewide.
Kamala got 9% so improvement!
Probably fairly similar to what it's like to be a Republican in Cambridge or Berkeley.
Sometimes just getting the data on dem voters in that district can be useful in the future, say if Doug Jones makes another run.
UT: Could Rs try this map out or is the referendum more strict than I'm assuming (as in should Salt Lake City be kept whole or just not be sliced into oblivion and is a 4-way split for Salt Lake County okay so long as one district is entirely within it): https://davesredistricting.org/join/aeb68542-a1a5-4871-9e6a-7053909a3293
I think the referendum is stricter, that's why Gibson said she would implement her own redrawn maps if the UT legislature did not comply by this time next month.
Would be nice if the UT state legislature maps were redrawn too so there’s not as much of an lopsided R majority.
They could try this instead. This map has only a 3-way split of Salt Lake County. The district entirely in it is Trump +6 (which is pretty much as red as possible for it), and the other three districts are all safely Republican.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/5fcd5661-22fd-42c3-a5ef-0eaf5c1afd07
Though to be fair, Dems would have a fairly good chance at winning a Trump+6 district entirely in Salt Lake County next year, considering how things are going with special elections.
Ben McAdams upset Mia Love in a redder district than that. No reason he can't come back.
No stay for UT. Judge refuses to stay order reqruiniig new maps while case is on appeal https://x.com/RedistrictNet/status/1960758850799214801
That's good for us, right?
Yes, provided a higher court doesn’t intervene
Q poll TRump keeps sinking 37-55. https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1960764129435636130
It’s like, maybe we shouldn’t have elected the vindictive maniac with a toddler’s understanding of the world?
If only Americans used the brains they were given, but alas that is far too much to ask for this modern society to do.
New - Senate poll - Maine
🔵 Planter 48% (+16)
🔴 Collins (Inc) 32%
(🔵) Internal poll
https://www.threads.com/@ppoliticalpolls/post/DN3TnE_2mRp?xmt=AQF0Q5yL8F1gyefnBmgQt66kGAaKcMwrUymYj1nyq2TtXQ&slof=1
LOL at this poll, even for an internal. I mean, Collins could certainly lose but I will be any amount of money that it's not by double digits, much less 16 points...
If she loses, it’ll be by 1-2 points.
Those numbers look hilariously implausible! The best way to make sense of it I can see is that there are a lot of conservatives that are on the fence about her but will mostly come home in the end. Especially with RCV taken into account.
I do think Collins is more vulnerable than many people here, but I'd be truly shocked if she did much worse than ~45% even in a huge wave. I expect even in defeat she would do solidly better than 45% for the final round.
Who even conducted this poll for Platner?
I don't believe that for a second. Makes me wonder if they accidentally flipped the numbers, since Planter could reasonably be at 32% right now due to his lack of name recognition.
I believe it's Platner instead of Planter.
Nevertheless, is Graham Platner considered the most credible Democratic Senate Candidate against Susan Collins?
Jordan Wood was the first real Senate candidate to announce months ago but it's him along with Platner, Tucker Favreau (no relationship to any of the Jon Favreau guys it seems) and Natasha Alcala although she doesn't have a website up last I checked.
Aaron Frey (state AG, albeit appointed) is in, too, I believe
Hmmm. I just did my research and didn't see anything regarding Frey jumping in the race.
Then again, just because a candidate like Alcala has filed to run doesn't mean it represents an active campaign.
He's listed as Potential on wiki, fwiw
He said he would only run if Mills didn’t
3 things:
1) There is no way Collins gets only 32% of the vote in 2026, so that puts this entire poll into question.
2) 48% of Maine voters supporting Platner as a first time candidate also is a red flag to be suspicious of.
3) If however, by some strange, inexplicable reason, it is accurate, then I now understand the panicked DailyCaller hit piece telling their Republican voting base to not vote for him a day after he launched his campaign for office.
I would REALLY love a nonpartisan poll testing Mills, Platner, Wood and Frey against Collins. No doubt Platner made an unexpectedly big splash, but I don’t think it’s big enough to get this kind of result.
Yeah, it's hard to even jump into conclusions just yet at this early in the ME-SEN race, especially considering there hasn't been a single Democratic Senate Candidate who has really broken through and dominated the campaign.
No doubt under pressure from the “justice department,” Louisiana will no longer defend the court-ordered map that created a second minority majority congressional district.
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/louisiana-will-no-longer-defend-map-in-supreme-court-case-on-future-of-vra/
So Louisiana thinks that using race to put black communities in one district is impermissible and “abhorrent” but using race to split black communities into many districts is perfectly fine. Sounds like logic this Supreme Court can get behind.
Yes, going out of their way to create as many white super majority districts as possible is fine.