The initial head-to-head had Ernst up by 1 point. In my view that should be the starting point of what gets reported. The hypothetical result after providing info is standard practice, but may not be a realistic reflection of actual campaign messaging conditions.
Ernst just might be the weakest Republican option of the three. Tough call with Bird but it's not as if there's "too far right" for Iowa voters anymore so that wouldn't be enough to stop Bird. Hinson would be the toughest Republican to beat, at least of these three.
She’s earned them. Her wishy-washyness (highly technical political jargon there) on the Pete Hegseth nomination, followed by her snide “Well, we’re all gong to die” to her constituents and then her snide non-apology for that statement have shown that she has no concern (or respect) for the voters who elected her. Right now Americans can’t stand “just another politician “, and that’s exactly how she appears.
It's great that The Downballot gets all this visibility from the special election posts, but they certainly attract some more outré perspectives on what Democrats need to do to win elections.
It takes a certain amount of self control not to pull a Barney Frank and respond as he did in this 2009 town hall:
WOMAN (after comparing Obama and the Affordable Care Act to Hitler and the Nazis):
My question to you is, why do you continue to support a Nazi policy?
BARNEY FRANK:
I am going to revert to my ethnic heritage and answer your question with a question: On what planet do you spend most of your time?
Barney Frank is Jewish and the woman asked him if he supported a Nazi policy as it relates to the Affordable Healthcare Act. Pretty bad form to ask a then-sitting Jewish Congressman anything related to Nazis, even if it’s about the ACA.
That said, a more direct response would have said, “I don’t agree this is a Nazi policy…” and then an explanation as to what the realistic impact of the ACA would be.
I don't think Barney's response was inappropriate at all given how absurd the comment was and his (perhaps slightly coded) reference to his jewishness.
I'm saying that I don't want to channel that moment when responding to sincere, if ridiculous, opinions from people who aren't regulars here.
Yes, that was more of a off the cuff comment by Frank. Nevertheless, you are arguing for a more fair and less divisive response, something the 2nd paragraph of mine was alluding to.
As crazy as people are when they ask these loaded questions, better not to talk down to them as it's only going to extend the problems.
Barney Frank’s response was pitch perfect! But I wouldn’t be surprised if, after the meeting, that deranged woman needed someone to explain his answer.
It doesn't hurt that #1. we are the out party #2. Spanberger is a VERY strong candidate and #3. Sears is a weak candidate. Unlike Youngkin she can't fool people into thinking she's a "moderate" Republican. Absolutely crucial in this pro business and heavily suburban state.
I'm usually pretty conservative in my projections, but I'm pretty bullish on this race. I think Spanbarger wins this by double digits, possibly by north of 15 points. There's a decent chance she carries a number of D legislative candidates to victory with her too.
Too bad we didn’t have fair legislative and congressional maps in place in NC last year. We’d be busy undoing everything Moore and Berger pushed through as Berger seethes.
If we win by 15 per cent, it would be THE largest margin of victory in a Virginia Gubernatorial Election for a Democrat since Albertis S Harrison back in 1961. And that goes back to the - albeit end of - days of the Byrd Organization.
True enough, but McConnell won by 17 in 2009 and VA is more D now than it was R then (if that makes sense) and I think the environment, particularly in a highly-educated state with a lot of government workers, will be a mirror inverse of that year.
As Chaz points out, a Virginia poll from AtlasIntel which ultimately reflected the results last fall had the state at D+3. We're supposed to believe the state shifted 6 points Republican after DOGE and Trump's unpopular policies, and as his national popularity has dropped?
I wonder what it's like to be a democrat in a place like Alabama State House district 11. The republican won there 89-11 yesterday lol. Impressive that a democrat even ran in such a hostile environment.
One of my fellow election workers from Somerville was moving to a similarly red county in Tennessee. He was actually rather excited, since he had already been appointed to the Election Commission, even though he hadn't moved yet. I guess State law requires a balance of Democrat and Republican members so they were taking any warm body for the Dem seats, even a newly transplanted Yankee.
UT: Could Rs try this map out or is the referendum more strict than I'm assuming (as in should Salt Lake City be kept whole or just not be sliced into oblivion and is a 4-way split for Salt Lake County okay so long as one district is entirely within it): https://davesredistricting.org/join/aeb68542-a1a5-4871-9e6a-7053909a3293
I think the referendum is stricter, that's why Gibson said she would implement her own redrawn maps if the UT legislature did not comply by this time next month.
Yeah, it's hard to even jump into conclusions just yet at this early in the ME-SEN race, especially considering there hasn't been a single Democratic Senate Candidate who has really broken through and dominated the campaign.
LOL at this poll, even for an internal. I mean, Collins could certainly lose but I will be any amount of money that it's not by double digits, much less 16 points...
Those numbers look hilariously implausible! The best way to make sense of it I can see is that there are a lot of conservatives that are on the fence about her but will mostly come home in the end. Especially with RCV taken into account.
I do think Collins is more vulnerable than many people here, but I'd be truly shocked if she did much worse than ~45% even in a huge wave. I expect even in defeat she would do solidly better than 45% for the final round.
Nevertheless, is Graham Platner considered the most credible Democratic Senate Candidate against Susan Collins?
Jordan Wood was the first real Senate candidate to announce months ago but it's him along with Platner, Tucker Favreau (no relationship to any of the Jon Favreau guys it seems) and Natasha Alcala although she doesn't have a website up last I checked.
No doubt under pressure from the “justice department,” Louisiana will no longer defend the court-ordered map that created a second minority majority congressional district.
So Louisiana thinks that using race to put black communities in one district is impermissible and “abhorrent” but using race to split black communities into many districts is perfectly fine. Sounds like logic this Supreme Court can get behind.
The initial head-to-head had Ernst up by 1 point. In my view that should be the starting point of what gets reported. The hypothetical result after providing info is standard practice, but may not be a realistic reflection of actual campaign messaging conditions.
Agree. Good points. So far from what I can see, it looks like Ernst.
Ernst just might be the weakest Republican option of the three. Tough call with Bird but it's not as if there's "too far right" for Iowa voters anymore so that wouldn't be enough to stop Bird. Hinson would be the toughest Republican to beat, at least of these three.
The more eye-opening number is that Ernst only got 43%, and even against no names she got 45%. Those are terrible numbers for a 2-term incumbent.
She’s earned them. Her wishy-washyness (highly technical political jargon there) on the Pete Hegseth nomination, followed by her snide “Well, we’re all gong to die” to her constituents and then her snide non-apology for that statement have shown that she has no concern (or respect) for the voters who elected her. Right now Americans can’t stand “just another politician “, and that’s exactly how she appears.
Shades of Mark Pryor's 2014 numbers here
Very different circumstances though regarding state trend previously, between Arkansas and Iowa
It's great that The Downballot gets all this visibility from the special election posts, but they certainly attract some more outré perspectives on what Democrats need to do to win elections.
It takes a certain amount of self control not to pull a Barney Frank and respond as he did in this 2009 town hall:
WOMAN (after comparing Obama and the Affordable Care Act to Hitler and the Nazis):
My question to you is, why do you continue to support a Nazi policy?
BARNEY FRANK:
I am going to revert to my ethnic heritage and answer your question with a question: On what planet do you spend most of your time?
Barney Frank is Jewish and the woman asked him if he supported a Nazi policy as it relates to the Affordable Healthcare Act. Pretty bad form to ask a then-sitting Jewish Congressman anything related to Nazis, even if it’s about the ACA.
That said, a more direct response would have said, “I don’t agree this is a Nazi policy…” and then an explanation as to what the realistic impact of the ACA would be.
I don't think Barney's response was inappropriate at all given how absurd the comment was and his (perhaps slightly coded) reference to his jewishness.
I'm saying that I don't want to channel that moment when responding to sincere, if ridiculous, opinions from people who aren't regulars here.
Yes, that was more of a off the cuff comment by Frank. Nevertheless, you are arguing for a more fair and less divisive response, something the 2nd paragraph of mine was alluding to.
As crazy as people are when they ask these loaded questions, better not to talk down to them as it's only going to extend the problems.
Barney Frank’s response was pitch perfect! But I wouldn’t be surprised if, after the meeting, that deranged woman needed someone to explain his answer.
Of course!
Frank btw was great in Congress. He's always been a great attack dog and unrelenting when he fires back.
Morning VA poll from R garbage pollster. Spanberger by 5 but look at the internals. They have it at +3R what a joke https://x.com/chaznuttycombe/status/1960684833455088045?s=61&t=5copDbz1aPl7ASsRCUclLg
And he says it’s an internal.
Internal, all right – taken from where the sun never shines.
It wouldn't surprise me if Spanberger, should she not make a big campaign blunder, wins by more than 9 points.
It doesn't hurt that #1. we are the out party #2. Spanberger is a VERY strong candidate and #3. Sears is a weak candidate. Unlike Youngkin she can't fool people into thinking she's a "moderate" Republican. Absolutely crucial in this pro business and heavily suburban state.
I'm usually pretty conservative in my projections, but I'm pretty bullish on this race. I think Spanbarger wins this by double digits, possibly by north of 15 points. There's a decent chance she carries a number of D legislative candidates to victory with her too.
It's not Stein/Black Nazi yet, but it rhrymes. I'd say 12-ish margin.
Ah yes, Mark "Pizza n' Porn" Robinson.
Too bad we didn’t have fair legislative and congressional maps in place in NC last year. We’d be busy undoing everything Moore and Berger pushed through as Berger seethes.
If we win by 15 per cent, it would be THE largest margin of victory in a Virginia Gubernatorial Election for a Democrat since Albertis S Harrison back in 1961. And that goes back to the - albeit end of - days of the Byrd Organization.
True enough, but McConnell won by 17 in 2009 and VA is more D now than it was R then (if that makes sense) and I think the environment, particularly in a highly-educated state with a lot of government workers, will be a mirror inverse of that year.
R+3 and we are still up 5? Wow!
This is good news for Earle-Sears! /s
Earle-Sears is going the way of Sears-Roebuck.
Well, being that there are no Sears store locations in VA today, that about sums it up!
As Chaz points out, a Virginia poll from AtlasIntel which ultimately reflected the results last fall had the state at D+3. We're supposed to believe the state shifted 6 points Republican after DOGE and Trump's unpopular policies, and as his national popularity has dropped?
That, and the 2021 exit poll was D+2 by party ID which is probably about the Dem floor for 2025. Something like D+5 to D+7 seems more likely.
Interesting that the NH AG is appointed and confirmed by the Executive Council while the SoS is elected by the legislature.
I wonder what it's like to be a democrat in a place like Alabama State House district 11. The republican won there 89-11 yesterday lol. Impressive that a democrat even ran in such a hostile environment.
Yet even there Dems got a 22-point over-performance from the last election.
I'm assuming that means the Republican was unopposed last cycle?
They were indeed unopposed
And had been for decades - at least that’s what I remember Charles Gaba posting on Bluesky not too long ago.
One of my fellow election workers from Somerville was moving to a similarly red county in Tennessee. He was actually rather excited, since he had already been appointed to the Election Commission, even though he hadn't moved yet. I guess State law requires a balance of Democrat and Republican members so they were taking any warm body for the Dem seats, even a newly transplanted Yankee.
Umichvoter found the data for the district and it was 88 percent white and 1 percect Black with the rest being Hispanics and mixed-race.
So essentially votes like whites vote D vs R statewide.
Kamala got 9% so improvement!
Sometimes just getting the data on dem voters in that district can be useful in the future, say if Doug Jones makes another run.
UT: Could Rs try this map out or is the referendum more strict than I'm assuming (as in should Salt Lake City be kept whole or just not be sliced into oblivion and is a 4-way split for Salt Lake County okay so long as one district is entirely within it): https://davesredistricting.org/join/aeb68542-a1a5-4871-9e6a-7053909a3293
Ben McAdams upset Mia Love in a redder district than that. No reason he can't come back.
I think the referendum is stricter, that's why Gibson said she would implement her own redrawn maps if the UT legislature did not comply by this time next month.
Would be nice if the UT state legislature maps were redrawn too so there’s not as much of an lopsided R majority.
No stay for UT. Judge refuses to stay order reqruiniig new maps while case is on appeal https://x.com/RedistrictNet/status/1960758850799214801
That's good for us, right?
Yes, provided a higher court doesn’t intervene
Q poll TRump keeps sinking 37-55. https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1960764129435636130
It’s like, maybe we shouldn’t have elected the vindictive maniac with a toddler’s understanding of the world?
New - Senate poll - Maine
🔵 Planter 48% (+16)
🔴 Collins (Inc) 32%
(🔵) Internal poll
https://www.threads.com/@ppoliticalpolls/post/DN3TnE_2mRp?xmt=AQF0Q5yL8F1gyefnBmgQt66kGAaKcMwrUymYj1nyq2TtXQ&slof=1
Yeah, it's hard to even jump into conclusions just yet at this early in the ME-SEN race, especially considering there hasn't been a single Democratic Senate Candidate who has really broken through and dominated the campaign.
LOL at this poll, even for an internal. I mean, Collins could certainly lose but I will be any amount of money that it's not by double digits, much less 16 points...
If she loses, it’ll be by 1-2 points.
Those numbers look hilariously implausible! The best way to make sense of it I can see is that there are a lot of conservatives that are on the fence about her but will mostly come home in the end. Especially with RCV taken into account.
I do think Collins is more vulnerable than many people here, but I'd be truly shocked if she did much worse than ~45% even in a huge wave. I expect even in defeat she would do solidly better than 45% for the final round.
Who even conducted this poll for Platner?
I believe it's Platner instead of Planter.
Nevertheless, is Graham Platner considered the most credible Democratic Senate Candidate against Susan Collins?
Jordan Wood was the first real Senate candidate to announce months ago but it's him along with Platner, Tucker Favreau (no relationship to any of the Jon Favreau guys it seems) and Natasha Alcala although she doesn't have a website up last I checked.
Aaron Frey (state AG, albeit appointed) is in, too, I believe
Hmmm. I just did my research and didn't see anything regarding Frey jumping in the race.
Then again, just because a candidate like Alcala has filed to run doesn't mean it represents an active campaign.
He's listed as Potential on wiki, fwiw
He said he would only run if Mills didn’t
No doubt under pressure from the “justice department,” Louisiana will no longer defend the court-ordered map that created a second minority majority congressional district.
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/louisiana-will-no-longer-defend-map-in-supreme-court-case-on-future-of-vra/
So Louisiana thinks that using race to put black communities in one district is impermissible and “abhorrent” but using race to split black communities into many districts is perfectly fine. Sounds like logic this Supreme Court can get behind.
Yes, going out of their way to create as many white super majority districts as possible is fine.