It would fly in the face of polling, but a 3-4 point Harris win would comport with the state's trendline in the last 3 presidential elections. In 2012 GA voted 11.7 points to the right of the country, in 2016 it was 7.3 and in 2020 it was 4.3. If Kamala wins the popular vote by a similar number to Biden her winning Georgia by 3-4 would fit pretty well within that trendline.
I also suspect that polls have a tendency to miss when a state is trending one way or the other because they model the electorate on the last election. I don't think that Joe Biden let any Georgia in 2020 for the same reason. I also suspect that a similar dynamic is happening with the Arizona polls.
I'm not; Trump has not endeared himself to Republicans in that state with his actions and pushing Walker onto them to boot, when other actual Georgia Republican candidates were available
IтАЩm 38, and have so far defied gravity and avoided the grays that all of my old high school friends now have. Hoping they donтАЩt all come in at once on Election Night!
Having gone on Medicare this last year, I would love to have your melancholy.
My 30s were probably my best decade. I bought my house when I was 30, within 3 years income increased enough I wasn't paying over 50% for housing, negotiated 4 weeks vacation into my employment contract, and traveled internationally or 2 week backpack trips twice a year.
But I'm enjoying my 60s too, it's just life throws you some curves. Enjoy whatever situation you are in, you never know when it will end.
A 35 point youth gender gap wouldn't shock me, but those specific numbers would. The crosstabs of polls have, pretty consistently, shown narrow leads for Harris among young voters. Conversely young voter-specific polls typically show her with leads in the 30-2:1 range.
My guess is if we have a 35 point gender gap it'll be something like Kamala winning young women 70-25 and winning young men 52-42.
I don't mind seeing these polls after a couple of weeks of growing negativity out there. It leaves a little room for one of the polls being a good deal off (GA) and the ball falling on the wrong side of the net (NV) and still pulling off a victory. Though obviously I'd feel better with better margins in PA and MI.
Really at this point more polls are more or less useless. The race is within the margin of error in the 7 swing states, and either candidate could win them all, lose them all, or any of the 126 combinations in between.
Any movement in the aggregates is likely to do compositional effects from who is dropping polls on a given day.
Realistically, I think this election comes down to - do the relatively small number of undecided voters decide that they dont particularly feel like putting up with Donald Trump for another four years and do they feel strongly enough about not putting up with him to actually show up.
I think we tend to overfocus on so-called undecided voters...
First and foremost, this election is about GOTV. LetтАЩs keep in mind how dismal turnout tends to be in American presidential elections. I seem to recall that in 2020 turnout was a mere 67%. Compared to other Western democracies, that is atrocious!
The Harris Campaign has invested heavily in ground game and GOTV operations, as have a legion of democracy-defending organizations, and it has mobilized a record-setting number of volunteers. If the Harris Campaign can raise the turnout of "our side" to European levels, say 75тАУ85%, then regardless of what the polls say, this will be a Blue Wave election.
Right now I think the most telling statistic in the Early Vote is the gender gap. In swing state after swing state, women account for 9тАУ10% more of the vote than men do.
QUESTION: I wonder what gender gaps the pollsters have built into their Likely Voter models.
PS. There is now a flood of bad-faith polls from Republican-leaning pollsters тАУ a flood that seems coordinated and specifically designed to impact the polling averages and the media narrative. That said, you gotta admire how cost-effective this is!
I consider people who need GOTV to get them to vote to be undecided.
I wouldnt use Early Vote for any kind of prediction. An enthusiastic woman's early vote counts the same as a guy who didn't decide to vote at all until after dinner on November 5.
I also understand what the GOP is doing regarding junk polls - it doesnt change much - the state level aggregates have been well within the margin of error the entire time since Harris took over.
Sure - maybe the polls are all wrong in our favor this time, and really we are sitting on a blue wave, but there is no reason to expect that to be the case over the opposite.
US participation rate is on voting age citizen population. The 67%, was surpassed only if you looking back in history when racial minority, women, 18-20 year old couldnтАЩt vote. That is, we had highest participation EVER.
BTW, your тАЬ EuropeanтАЭ level of election participation is grossly overstated. That is Australian level with compulsory voting, or maybe some smaller countries. The larger ones, GermanyтАЩs last national election had 76% using total registration as base, it would be 68.8 if VAP. French presidential election had 73.7% for registration, 66.5 for VAP; The one just in UK, 59.8 of registration, only 53 of VAP. None is substantially better than US.
Another note, if the turnout truly hits 75% of 258 million VAP, or even just the estimated 240 million citizens in them, say 180 million total turnout, you cannot assume it will help Democrats at all.
We're not switching to Nordic style proportional representation voting anytime soon. We're barely able to get preferential voting off the ground in some cities. And even some of those are going back to first past the post.
Field dates for these polls were 9-30 to 10-15 so they won't likely pick up any really late movement. I suspect there hasn't been much movement though.
Washington Post polls
PA:
Harris 49
Trump 47
WI:
Harris 50
Trump 47
MI:
Harris 49
Trump 47
NV:
Harris 48
Trump 48
AZ:
Trump 49
Harris 46
NC:
Trump 50
Harris 47
GA:
Harris 51
Trump 47
I'm surprised by the Georgia result. Everything else seems reasonable.
It would fly in the face of polling, but a 3-4 point Harris win would comport with the state's trendline in the last 3 presidential elections. In 2012 GA voted 11.7 points to the right of the country, in 2016 it was 7.3 and in 2020 it was 4.3. If Kamala wins the popular vote by a similar number to Biden her winning Georgia by 3-4 would fit pretty well within that trendline.
I also suspect that polls have a tendency to miss when a state is trending one way or the other because they model the electorate on the last election. I don't think that Joe Biden let any Georgia in 2020 for the same reason. I also suspect that a similar dynamic is happening with the Arizona polls.
I'm not; Trump has not endeared himself to Republicans in that state with his actions and pushing Walker onto them to boot, when other actual Georgia Republican candidates were available
Interesting tidbit from the write up:
"women under age 30 favoring Harris by 20 points while men under 30 favor Trump by 15 points."
It's a melancholy thought that I no longer qualify as a voter under 30.
Yes, but your vote will be a good counterweight to one of those young idiots. ;)
Hey, I hit 40 recently, so I am feeling ancient too.
YouтАЩre not even half a century. Mere youngster!
My first "vote" was caucusing for Paul Wellstone in 2002, at age 17.
The grays are coming in quick. Lol
IтАЩm 38, and have so far defied gravity and avoided the grays that all of my old high school friends now have. Hoping they donтАЩt all come in at once on Election Night!
Having gone on Medicare this last year, I would love to have your melancholy.
My 30s were probably my best decade. I bought my house when I was 30, within 3 years income increased enough I wasn't paying over 50% for housing, negotiated 4 weeks vacation into my employment contract, and traveled internationally or 2 week backpack trips twice a year.
But I'm enjoying my 60s too, it's just life throws you some curves. Enjoy whatever situation you are in, you never know when it will end.
An amusing side note: In Norway, itтАЩs mandated that people over 60 get an extra week of vacation. It is often commonly referred to as "senile week".
Lol
Still too young to run for President. IIRC the Levitical priesthood wasnтАЩt considered full fledged until 30.
And if I remember correctly, men traditionally weren't supposed to study Kabbalah until they turned 40.
But in the meantime, we can study Martin Buber, starting with "I and Thou".
I still think going on Rogan could be a net positive. Maybe take that from 15 points down to 14.
Can't hurt
Was there any new announcement about that?
A 35 point youth gender gap wouldn't shock me, but those specific numbers would. The crosstabs of polls have, pretty consistently, shown narrow leads for Harris among young voters. Conversely young voter-specific polls typically show her with leads in the 30-2:1 range.
My guess is if we have a 35 point gender gap it'll be something like Kamala winning young women 70-25 and winning young men 52-42.
Other polls suggest young men are about as GOP as Millennials (so +8-9 roughly) its that women are something like +35 or so
I don't mind seeing these polls after a couple of weeks of growing negativity out there. It leaves a little room for one of the polls being a good deal off (GA) and the ball falling on the wrong side of the net (NV) and still pulling off a victory. Though obviously I'd feel better with better margins in PA and MI.
I hate that WaPo has adopted the Monmouth "technically not a head to head poll" method. Ugh.
538 lists the results. They donтАЩt list Monmouth.
Really at this point more polls are more or less useless. The race is within the margin of error in the 7 swing states, and either candidate could win them all, lose them all, or any of the 126 combinations in between.
Any movement in the aggregates is likely to do compositional effects from who is dropping polls on a given day.
Realistically, I think this election comes down to - do the relatively small number of undecided voters decide that they dont particularly feel like putting up with Donald Trump for another four years and do they feel strongly enough about not putting up with him to actually show up.
I think we tend to overfocus on so-called undecided voters...
First and foremost, this election is about GOTV. LetтАЩs keep in mind how dismal turnout tends to be in American presidential elections. I seem to recall that in 2020 turnout was a mere 67%. Compared to other Western democracies, that is atrocious!
The Harris Campaign has invested heavily in ground game and GOTV operations, as have a legion of democracy-defending organizations, and it has mobilized a record-setting number of volunteers. If the Harris Campaign can raise the turnout of "our side" to European levels, say 75тАУ85%, then regardless of what the polls say, this will be a Blue Wave election.
Right now I think the most telling statistic in the Early Vote is the gender gap. In swing state after swing state, women account for 9тАУ10% more of the vote than men do.
QUESTION: I wonder what gender gaps the pollsters have built into their Likely Voter models.
PS. There is now a flood of bad-faith polls from Republican-leaning pollsters тАУ a flood that seems coordinated and specifically designed to impact the polling averages and the media narrative. That said, you gotta admire how cost-effective this is!
I consider people who need GOTV to get them to vote to be undecided.
I wouldnt use Early Vote for any kind of prediction. An enthusiastic woman's early vote counts the same as a guy who didn't decide to vote at all until after dinner on November 5.
I also understand what the GOP is doing regarding junk polls - it doesnt change much - the state level aggregates have been well within the margin of error the entire time since Harris took over.
Sure - maybe the polls are all wrong in our favor this time, and really we are sitting on a blue wave, but there is no reason to expect that to be the case over the opposite.
US participation rate is on voting age citizen population. The 67%, was surpassed only if you looking back in history when racial minority, women, 18-20 year old couldnтАЩt vote. That is, we had highest participation EVER.
BTW, your тАЬ EuropeanтАЭ level of election participation is grossly overstated. That is Australian level with compulsory voting, or maybe some smaller countries. The larger ones, GermanyтАЩs last national election had 76% using total registration as base, it would be 68.8 if VAP. French presidential election had 73.7% for registration, 66.5 for VAP; The one just in UK, 59.8 of registration, only 53 of VAP. None is substantially better than US.
Another note, if the turnout truly hits 75% of 258 million VAP, or even just the estimated 240 million citizens in them, say 180 million total turnout, you cannot assume it will help Democrats at all.
I primarily look at the Scandinavian voter turnout.
That is a very special universe though. Very different from the large and diverse elective democracies.
I didnтАЩt mention Canada, which routinely has level of turnout comparable to California.
Fair enough, as a Scandinavian I suppose I have higher expectations.
Yeah, this is kinda тАЬwe should, but we wonтАЩtтАЭ type of thing.
We're not switching to Nordic style proportional representation voting anytime soon. We're barely able to get preferential voting off the ground in some cities. And even some of those are going back to first past the post.
Prior to this year French legislative elections are often under 50% or just a bit over. This year's turnout was exceptionally high at 66.7%.
Field dates for these polls were 9-30 to 10-15 so they won't likely pick up any really late movement. I suspect there hasn't been much movement though.