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James Trout's avatar

Prediction: should she win the Governorship.......AND we Democrats win all three statewide offices and make gains in the House of Delegates in November, Abigail Spanberger WILL do a 180. The realist in me thinks she has the 2028 Vice Presidency in mind. https://www.wric.com/news/virginia-news/8news-exclusive-abigail-spanberger-says-she-wont-sign-bill-to-fully-repeal-virginias-right-to-work-law/

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Paleo's avatar

A 180? She says she won't sign a full repeal. So does that mean she will sign a full repeal or veto any repeal? Or maybe just sign a partial partial repeal?

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James Trout's avatar

I expect her to sign a full repeal of so called "right to work" should all those mini predictions come true. It's for the same reason Jimmy Carter sucked up to George Wallace and segregationists when he ran for Governor of Georgia in 1970, political necessity. Keep in mind the Commonwealth of Virginia is the ONLY state in the nation where Governors are not permitted consecutive terms so she loses nothing by acting as I prescribed.

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Ncsupack's avatar

Is RTW that popular in Virginia?

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Stargate77's avatar

Most Virginia politicians seem to think it is, or at least was. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine both supported RTW in their runs for statewide office in the 2000s. I imagine public opinion in Virginia has shifted on this issue as the state has shifted further left over the years, and I would like to see a poll that asks this question. In order for this poll to be reliable, however, it needs to clarify to respondents what RTW laws actually entail. Without that clarification, many poll respondents will mistakenly assume that these laws are about whether or not people have the right to get a job - something that's not in question by anyone.

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James Trout's avatar

Sadly yes. You have to keep in mind that even when Virginia was a solid southern Democratic state, it was NEVER one where left populism was popular. Even today, left populism here goes to die in statewide elections. A major reason for that is due to the fact that urban power has always been tempted here. The largest city here is Virginia Beach, which is still dominated by Republicans and where Pat Robertson had his home base.

The ONLY reason why Virginia has moved in our direction is due to the fact that we now dominate in the suburbs of DC and Richmond. Something that was far from given just two decades ago. The Old Dominion may HATE Falwell/Robertson style social conservatism, but neither are they won over by Bernie Sanders style "progressivism." Far from it. This remains a pro business AND anti tax Commonwealth. The fact that Glenn Youngkin made repeal of the grocery tax a centerpiece of his campaign in 2021 just as Jim Gilmore did the same with the car tax in 1997 speaks for itself.

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michaelflutist's avatar

What's the appeal of "right to work" to non-business execs?

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James Trout's avatar

The whole "right of association" thing. Especially in Northern Virginia where there are a lot of libertarian types.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I never heard there were. Has the Libertarian Party ever had much effect on Virginian elections?

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James Trout's avatar

Small l libertarian, not Libertarian Party. Even when this was a Republican state, it was majority pro choice. Something Doug Wilder made sure to exploit when he ran for Governor in 1989 against Marshall Coleman who ran as very anti choice. Wilder also ran as pro business and pro death penalty though.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Aren't you talking about civil libertarianism, though? That's not at all the same as libertarianism in general, which opposes things like safety regulations for products and limits on pollution by industries.

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PollJunkie's avatar

Why progressivism is in quotes? It's a well established ideology now.

Virginia beach and the coast seem to vote hard for Democrats in the presidential and state elections when I pulled up a precinct map.

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James Trout's avatar

Because most people who call themselves progressives today are actually populists. They have a LOT more in common with William Jennings Bryan than Theodore Roosevelt. Progressivism and populism are two separate ideologies.

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PollJunkie's avatar

I have a different view, Progressives in the USA are ideologically similar to establishment European Social Democrats except in a very few issues but are populist here because the American Overton window is way right.

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ArcticStones's avatar

I like the way you think.

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Stargate77's avatar

She may also have Tim Kaine's Senate seat in mind. If Spanberger wins the Governor's race this year, then her term will end in January 2030. She'll then be in a good position to run for that Senate seat if Kaine retires in 2030.

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Darren Monaghan's avatar

I'd support her 100% in 2025 & 2030 if that's the case!! 💙🇺🇲

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michaelflutist's avatar

I would hesitate to predict that she doesn't mean what she says. Hasn't she been somewhat toward the right side of the Democratic Party?

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Zero Cool's avatar

I would say more moderate in tone but not necessarily to the right.

Spanberger’s been a reliable vote for the Democratic Party’s agenda. However, it’s the Defund the Police agenda that Spanberger pointed out was a problem for her constituents to stomach. Her answer in addressing this issue seems to be more rooted in common sense than anything.

https://www.ontheissues.org/VA/Abigail_Spanberger.htm

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/20/abigail-spanberger-virginia-policing-message-00026211

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michaelflutist's avatar

I'm not about defunding the police.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Neither am I.

Getting rid of excessive military influence on the police when it’s not needed, yes.

However, you cannot spin the Defund the Police narrative to those who are just looking to shop, eat out and avoid being victims of crimes such as car break-ins or thefts.

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James Trout's avatar

Whether we like it or not, one constant concern that people have is crime. The LAST thing people want to hear is "don't be afraid."

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Zero Cool's avatar

Democrats have been painted as “weak on crime” by the GOP for a long time.

It doesn’t need to be this way.

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James Trout's avatar

Exactly my point.

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Andrew's avatar

Agreed. I’m from Mpls and when the George Floyd protests turned into “defund the police”, I was like oh fuck, ya’ll just ruined this.

It’s why I love Spanberger. I don’t think she’s a moderate, I think she’s realistic about politics and how to win over voters. It’s a huge lesson to learn that being right doesn’t equal winning.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Frankly, "defunding the police" is primarily a Republican goal. They’re gutting the federal government’s regulatory, policing and enforcement agencies. From the EPA and the IRS to the DOJ and the CFPB, and many more. (Of course it’s never called "defunding the police" when they do it.)

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Zero Cool's avatar

That’s definitely been Grover Norquist’s agenda from the beginning.

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James Trout's avatar

She co sponsored the PRO Act in 2021. I stand by my statement that she'll sign a full repeal as Governor.

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michaelflutist's avatar

OK, fair point.

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