Huh wow! I didn't know about this. Can you take a screenshot? I'm not seeing this feature. I know you can't upload images to comments, but you could link to https://imgbb.com/ or the link. Thanks!
That's a little rude. I think it's fine to talk about what other social media platforms say about downballot races on here. They're allowed to have dedicated political communities too.
Especially when it's something as absurd as thinking Platner isn't going to be the Dem Senate nominee at this point, one week out from the primary. I don't use Bluesky but I'm assuming that's what those posts are referring to, in light of the recent NYT and WSJ articles on Platner's sexting prior to his campaign.
The one time I bring up Bluesky chatter is specifically from that site’s left wing. Bluesky actually has multiple communities, ranging from moderate Dems to progressives, and the latter group is home to a lot of DSA online types. Sometimes I use this latter group to get a pulse on what DSA types in general are feeling about a specific race, or just progressives as a whole. In addition, I also sometimes see people float prospective candidates for seats on Bluesky — and I bring those up too because I just find candidate recruitment and/or filing news fascinating.
It's really just a euphemism for referring to chatter in leftwing spaces on the internet, which seems at least somewhat relevant to this leftwing space on the internet.
Counterargument: the opinions of left-wing spaces, just like those of moderates (which Bluesky does also have), are 100% relevant to political races even if you don’t agree with them. If one wing of the party refuses to support a candidate, that can hint at problems with that candidate. And that’s not left-exclusive either — wasn’t Mandela Barnes’ loss attributed in part to him being so left wing alienating moderate voters?
For what it’s worth, I do think The Downballot having multiple categories of Dem is incredibly valuable. I’m significantly to the left of several posters here, and I have occasionally rethought my own positions on races and issues in having discussion with others not as left as I. I’m just saying that Bluesky discussion shouldn’t be outright disallowed here, as I do think it can be relevant to some races.
This was not necessary. Rayspace referenced Bsky only in passing. Their question was about a candidate. If a topic doesn't interest you, please move on.
He has been the Democratic sacrifical lamb candidate against Angus King at least once. Never served elected office, basically just Generic Democrat, the person.
Graham Platner is not Eric Swalwell. He’s had real demons since he came back from serving in the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars. I believe the sex texts although unacceptable do not seem to be indicating Platner has predatory behavior. If anything, he may have not been secure emotionally but he also had PTSD to deal with at the same time.
If Platner’s wife is already aware of this, it’s different than Swalwell’s wife being completely blindsided when Swalwell became predatory while still being married to her. The latter cannot be spinned.
There also does not need to be a rational explanation for all choices and behavior. Some men are one thing in public, and may be skilled politically, but that does not mean they aren't pieces of shit in private. (See the political vs private conduct of the Kennedy family for example)
This is my concern, and has been along. The steady drip, drip, drip of bad news on Platner is precisely what I was worried about from day 1. Suffice it to say, my worry has not abated and I expect further revelations as we move into the Fall. Regardless, as you point out, he's our horse now so we might as well all get onboard.
For now I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt, as none of these scandals thus far have seem to caught on that much, and have seen reasonable explanations and apologies on his end.
I struggle to say certain things on here about Platner without sounding insulting, but what has this guy ever done to warrant giving him the benefit of the doubt?
His apologies for his now numerous scandals have credible reasoning behind them and make logical sense as to why he would do things the way he has (his social media posts came at a time where his mental health was in question, this current "cheating" scandal was resolved long before it came into the limelight, and his wife and him have reconciled). His campaign has been genuine and sincere, grassroots and issue focused. Part of the reason he's so controversial is because he's been willing to go against the establishment wing of the Democratic Party as well as establishment politics in general. He has a proven track record of caring about progressive issues (see his activism in high school). He's not independently wealthy and doesn't come across as an arrogant asshole like many other politicians do.
I give him the benefit of the doubt because he's a human like the rest of us, and is allowed to make mistakes. I have a little bit of empathy for him. To be so cynical regarding his candidacy also ignores the many other ongoing political scandals that the mainstream media doesn't give as much attention.
I see you have a negative opinion on him, so I'll stop there. All of this is to say I'm also willing to change my mind if he doesn't demonstrate these qualities any longer, or if a more serious scandal emerges.
Well no polls have been released regarding this *latest* scandal, which is different than the others. It wouldn't surprise me IF IF IF a couple bad polls come out in the next week, there's "drop out" chatter. But time is certainly running out.
It's not really different from the others. I can't imagine people will be more offended by him texting other women than his tattoo or his Reddit posts.
No, he’s not. But we took a huge risk as a party by accepting this nobody with enough red flags to fill Six Flags with as our standard bearer in the most important Senate seat. The Platner deadenders own this if we end up losing this seat. We knew about a lot of his issues In October of last year, and had five months to find a new young progressive who wasn’t 79 years old or unpopular with labor.
I dont know why people think this is the straw that will break the camel. IMO it's literally the weakest of his several "scandals". Democrats are acting like Republicans circa 1996 about a private matter which the wife knew about. Huge nothingburger.
Who really owns this is Troy Jackson et al who were so shell-shocked by the Gideon loss in 2020 that they wimped out running against Collins at the beginning of the cycle.
IA-GOV: I went to Zach Lahn's event in Ankeny (a suburb of Des Moines) on Sunday. For anyone who wants to see what this guy's pitch is about, here is the full video.
Rob Sand would need to completely rethink his case if this guy wins the nomination because he is running on a change message and can't be tied to anything enacted by Congress or Iowa's GOP trifecta.
For sure, every Democrat would rather see Sand run against Feenstra.
In fact that has become a central part of Lahn's pitch: Feenstra would lose to Rob Sand but I would beat Rob Sand. It's near the very end of that video I posted to YouTube.
I regret that I haven't finished my big Wahls/Turek post! I was planning to work on it Friday and Saturday but I got sidetracked by the GOP race for governor.
Great article Laura, I will just cross my fingers and hope the Trump endorsement drags Feenstra across the line tomorrow, to give Sand a better chance in the Fall.
In the FL House items, worth pointing out per the lead state house sponsor of a law passed this year on candidate qualification, Allison Tant, that Parnas almost certainly does not qualify to refile as an independent/no party affiliation (NPA).
And as trivia, regarding Moise and Bastien's effots to be the first Haitian-descent member of Congress in 2011, Mia Love took that title in 2015 and then Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick was ofc the first Floridian.
Mayor of Overland Park Curt Skoog launched a last second campaign for governor. He was initially elected to city council as a republican, but switched parties in 2021 before running for mayor. OP is the largest city in Johnson County, where all of the dem candidates for governor are from.
Yes, I can see him eating into both of their bases of support. Holscher and Corson‘s senate districts both include parts of Overland Park. Makes for a very unpredictable primary since every candidate has the same geographic base of support.
Not really. The only available poll has Holscher up 24 points, though that was in January. It's practically an ideological battle, as Corson is seen as more establishment compared to Holscher's supposed progressivism, and Corson did take donations from CoreCivic in 2024.
On having endorsements from Kelly and Sebelius, Holscher also has an endorsement from John Carlin, who was the last living Democrat to be elected governor before them, so it goes both ways.
If the CA-Gov race is Becerra vs Steyer, it helps downballot Dems while depressing downballot GOP turnout. If the CA-Gov race is Becerra vs Hilton, it hurts Dems esp in places like CA-22, where Hilton will campaign with Valadao to pump up GOP turnout. (At least, that's the realization I've come to and am sharing on social media) So unsure Dems' best bet is to vote for the Dem in second place, Steyer.
Given the shift we've seen to Democrats among Hispanic voters, I strongly suspect Hilton campaigning with Valadao would hurt Valadao's candidacy. But I do agree that having no Republican candidate at the top of the ticket would hurt Valadao even more.
I also suspect (despite the DCCC's apparent belief) that if Villegas becomes the nominee in CA-22, Democrats are favored to win. Having a Hispanic last name has seemed to benefit candidates in this area in the past (and probably has helped Valadao win reelection, even though he's actually of Portuguese descent).
CA-22 is a district where I would be very interested in seeing some quality polling. I don't think any general election matchup polls have been leaked so far.
Isn't it pretty easy to vote in California by mail? I would imagine most republicans are just going to skip the gov race and vote to help out Valadao if Hilton doesn't make it. It's not like they have to drag themselves to a voting booth. Not saying it won't hurt somewhat but i think it's a little overblown to say republicans won't vote.
Weeks ago I received my mail-in ballot and dropped it off in the mail two or so weeks ago. The process is made easy and I get notifications in advance by mail about the ballot beforehand.
It's easy and yet millions of people don't vote every primary and general election. Being aware and enthused about the races and candidates and national implications is what causes people to vote.
From last week, but bipartisan constitutional amendments were introduced to change MI to move from using conventions to nominate SOS; AG and boards members of education, University of Michigan, Michigan State University and Wayne State University to primaries for SOS and AG and gubernatorial appointments for the boards. (One deals with all of the above, the other just focuses on the SOS and AG nominees.) Neither effort is addressing supreme court nominations at conventions.
Amendments require 2/3rds passage in each chamber first before it goes to voters for a simple majority. If it passes before 6/5, it could be added to the 8/4 primaries (but unlikely).
Question: Why cannot some entity advance a new lawsuit on the basis that the Founding Fathers did not intend US Congressional districts that look like a salamander. Why would this not appeal to the ORIGINALISTS? With the advances of A.I. and other data-gathering entities in recent years, would there not be a chance to install a data-driven process for new maps after each Census? Keep municipalities in a whole district and maintain regular shapes. It would be fair to all parties and avoid a lot of in-fighting. Things have changed since SCOTUS refused to get involved...was it in a 2019 case?
The salamander shape you discuss is subjective, and fairness and actual proportionality doesn't come from shapes of districts, it comes from common regions and voting groups. You can have a terrible looking district that is part of a fair map (see Louisiana's current 2024 map).
For example, you wouldn't combine California's North Coast with that of inner mountainous regions, as they have different cultures. But a big district in the northern part of the state looks good.
Thanks- I understand your good point, and I regret the slander to the lowly salamander. My question remains: Is there not a data-driven method that the tech-fearful SCOTUS might be willing to consider...if it came up through the lower courts.
I'd say at the time of every redraw per the census, mapmakers should compile data from statewide results from the past decade and apportion seats based on the average percentage of the vote each party gets, then also try to ensure municipalities are within a district like you said.
Is there any sense of who the strongest Republicans are in the Alaska race? I would've thought she'd be near the top, but I guess she thought differently.
Businesswoman Bernadette Wilson and former Anchorage mayor Dave Bronson have seemed to lead the pack so far. Former state Sen. Click Bishop has also gained some traction, and physician Matt Heilala has poured millions of his own money into his campaign.
Dahlstrom was a risk to drop out if she made it to Top 4 in 3rd or 4th place since that’s what she did in 2024. It’s good for us she’s dropping now. We need to encourage/pressure any Dem that gets 3rd or 4th to drop out as well and coalesce around the top Dem in the general.
*If* another Dem gets 3rd or 4th. The most recent poll showed just Tom Begich with a pretty big plurality for the Democrats and then Wilson, Bronson and Bishop rounding out the pack.
There’s a risk of fifth or sixth getting the spots if anyone else in top 4 drop out. Eric Hafner got 6th on the 2024 primary ballot but ended up in the November general because 2 Republicans dropped out. Hopefully other Dems drop if there is a clear Dem frontrunner, as seems likely with Tom Begich.
Although Primary School is no longer publishing, a special 2026 New Jersey edition for tomorrow’s primaries in that state has been published, for those curious. (Author Nick Tagliaferro has hinted on Bluesky he may also do a NY run-down).
Péter Magyar has been good so far on pretty much every issue. I was skeptical of him at first because he rarely challenged Orbán's views during the campaign, but I'm happily eating crow.
Malta's snap election, called by the center-left ruling Labour Party to limit the backlash they would've faced due to being in charge when the global economy sucks, turned out well. Labour won the election, and will keep governing Malta as it has since 2013.
Although the right-leaning parties won a majority in the election Denmark held a couple of months ago, irreconcilable differences between the center-right and the far right prevented them from forming a government. This is still not officially confirmed, but it seems that the center-right Moderates agreed to join the left-leaning parties and support the incumbent center-left prime minister Mette Frederiksen after all other options failed.
Bad news:
The far right got stronger in the recent parliamentary election in Cyprus, although part of that was due to inefficient vote splitting among the minor centrist parties. The parliament now has a two-thirds conservative majority, which is historically large.
The far-right candidate unexpectedly came first in the first round of the presidential election in Colombia. The candidate who came third is also conservative, so I expect the far right to claim the presidency of Colombia in the second round, as they have done in other Latin American countries recently.
You're right, but back then, Petro didn't need to win over many of Gutiérrez's voters. This time, if the same people vote as in the first round, Cepeda would need about half of Valencia's supporters (as well as all of Fajardo's). Cepeda can definitely win this, but I think he's the underdog.
They're the incumbents now, and deeply unpopular ones.
They won very closely in Bogota and Barranquilla, and those are the places they need to run up the score if they were to have a chance (I expect Cepeda to lose Barranquilla in the second round, actually)
Their reaction was very Trumpy (claims of cheating that have been widely rejected)
And they have spent all day making silly mistakes (petty complains on the use of the football team's jersey, demanding a debate they refused for months, violating electoral rules of political participation by officials, calls for ministers to quit to campaing) and the general feeling is that they seem lost and desperate.
I'll note that in the grand scheme of things, Cyprus's elections were pretty boring. Sure, the far-right party gained 4 seats and now has 8, and whatever Fidas' party is entered parliament with 4 seats, but that's 12/56. The rest of the seats are held by parties ranging from center-right to left-wing that seem fairly benign. You seem to be counting DIKO as conservative, which isn't accurate for the most part as far as I'm aware. I'm hoping same-sex marriage can be legalized in this term.
Thanks for the correction! Honestly, I don't know much about the situation there and haven't really checked my facts. I was relying on the following article, which describes DIKO as a "right-of-center force" that is in "strategic alignment" with ELAM and DISY:
In all fairness, some places do seem to describe DIKO as center-right, but it's notably also a member of a center-left European party (Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats) and international organization (Progressive Alliance), and seems to also be frequently described as centrist or center-left. Unfortunately a lot of Wikipedia's sources don't work, but this one (https://books.google.com/books?id=q_cG61SQ8MAC&pg=PA16#v=onepage&q&f=false) indicates it used to be center-right, but has shifted left since.
Former Independent Alaska Gov. Bill Walker filed to run again for governor at the last minute. Idk what impact this has on the race, but probably not anything good for us since he won his sole term on Democratic votes.
I think this was mentioned in the Digest. I was also about to make one of my comprehensive filing deadline posts (I don't know if you've seen one, I just did Wyoming the other day) but realized Alaska's filing deadline is still in about 2 hours.
Still, the link from the Digest under the AK-Gov item points to his filing, which was three days ago. He probably is running, but he still has 2 hours to change his mind, as do the others.
Since the top four move onto a ranked choice runoff, I think it doesn't hurt nearly as much? It's hard to say how he would govern if he wins this time, but he was at least the Dem endorsee in 2014 and governed with a Dem LG his whole term as a moderate former Repub.
There’s a risk that not enough Dem voters pref Begich or the other Dem second. Republicans were strategic in 2024 in getting their candidates to drop out after the top 4 primary. Dems should encourage the same. There’s not much margin for error in a state as red as Alaska. Walker muddies the water even further. Hopefully he goes nowhere.
If he governs like he did from 2019–2023 and has the best chance to win, I'm not super opposed to Walker winning over one of the Dems. He's lightyears better than Bronson or Wilson.
He got ran out of office in 2018 and got third place in 2022. He clearly is not well-liked. I think he’s far from our best chance. Just a 75-year-old has been who can let go.
KS-Sen: Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces at least 11 Democratic challengers, but the most prominent are probably pastor Adam Hamilton, state Sen. Patrick Schmidt, and businesswoman Sandy Spidel Neumann.
KS-3: Neither of Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids's Republican opponents, former Shawnee councilor Eric Jenkins and businessman Chase LaPorte, dropped out, so they will face off to take on Davids.
KS-Gov: There's a lot going on both sides here:
-Democratic state Sens. Cindy Holscher and Ethan Corson as well as Overland Park mayor Curt Skoog, who launched a last-minute campaign earlier today, are running.
-Republicans include Secretary of State Scott Schwab, Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, state Sen. Ty Masterson, businessman Phil Sarnecki, former Johnson County commissioner Charlotte O'Hara and businesswoman Stacy Rogers. Additionally, Nick and Katy Reinecker, a couple with no prior political experience, will run on a ticket together. Former Gov. Jeff Colyer dropped out earlier today (thanks Brendan).
KS-SoS: Republican state Rep. Pat Proctor is apparently uncontested for his side, while former state Rep. Jennifer Day and construction worker Sam Lane are the Democrats running to succeed Schwab.
KS-AG: Incumbent Republican Kris Kobach, long a source of controversy in state politics, will face Democrat Chris Mann in a rematch, as neither had intraparty opposition.
KS-Insurance Commissioner: Republican state Rep. Daniel Hawkins and Democratic state Sen. Dinah Sykes will face off to succeed Schmidt, as they also didn't have intraparty opposition.
If this is totally final, it looks like all five incumbent Repub members of the education board are retiring rather than run for reelection (Michelle Dombrosky is the LG running mate to Charlotte O'Hara). Conservatives only flipped control of it after 2024.
Huh wow! I didn't know about this. Can you take a screenshot? I'm not seeing this feature. I know you can't upload images to comments, but you could link to https://imgbb.com/ or the link. Thanks!
EDIT: Ah! So, it's limited to the Substack mobile app: https://support.substack.com/hc/en-us/articles/7265753724692-How-do-I-listen-to-a-Substack-post
I tried it on this post on an iPhone and it worked quite well!
Works on my android mobile. I listen to TDB a lot, rather than read. Poll pile is deliciously wonky though, with words like mesen and rigov.
Bluesky posts on David Costello for ME-SEN this morning. Besides his website, does anyone know anything about him?
That's a little rude. I think it's fine to talk about what other social media platforms say about downballot races on here. They're allowed to have dedicated political communities too.
This is reasonable, but it's entirely possible the posts about Costello on Bluesky were analytical and coolheaded and we just didn't know.
Either way, his political career will be "gone with the wind" when Platner wins the nomination next week, so it's not a big deal.
Especially when it's something as absurd as thinking Platner isn't going to be the Dem Senate nominee at this point, one week out from the primary. I don't use Bluesky but I'm assuming that's what those posts are referring to, in light of the recent NYT and WSJ articles on Platner's sexting prior to his campaign.
The one time I bring up Bluesky chatter is specifically from that site’s left wing. Bluesky actually has multiple communities, ranging from moderate Dems to progressives, and the latter group is home to a lot of DSA online types. Sometimes I use this latter group to get a pulse on what DSA types in general are feeling about a specific race, or just progressives as a whole. In addition, I also sometimes see people float prospective candidates for seats on Bluesky — and I bring those up too because I just find candidate recruitment and/or filing news fascinating.
It's really just a euphemism for referring to chatter in leftwing spaces on the internet, which seems at least somewhat relevant to this leftwing space on the internet.
Counterargument: the opinions of left-wing spaces, just like those of moderates (which Bluesky does also have), are 100% relevant to political races even if you don’t agree with them. If one wing of the party refuses to support a candidate, that can hint at problems with that candidate. And that’s not left-exclusive either — wasn’t Mandela Barnes’ loss attributed in part to him being so left wing alienating moderate voters?
For what it’s worth, I do think The Downballot having multiple categories of Dem is incredibly valuable. I’m significantly to the left of several posters here, and I have occasionally rethought my own positions on races and issues in having discussion with others not as left as I. I’m just saying that Bluesky discussion shouldn’t be outright disallowed here, as I do think it can be relevant to some races.
The Downballot is a nonpartisan, pro-democracy site. Please leave the moderation of the comment section to us. If a comment breaks the rules, you can flag it as outlined here: https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-community-rules-of
This was not necessary. Rayspace referenced Bsky only in passing. Their question was about a candidate. If a topic doesn't interest you, please move on.
He has been the Democratic sacrifical lamb candidate against Angus King at least once. Never served elected office, basically just Generic Democrat, the person.
Thank you for answering rayspace's question.
Platner isn't going anywhere; people need to accept it.
Some people would rather win the argument than the election.
Others have a vested interest in outsider candidates who rock the establishment boat losing sonthat fewer challenges happen in the future.
Others are well-meaning but just don't seem to grasp that he IS the candidate and texts are a nothingburger, old news, and the wife already knows.
I was going to add about the texts:
Graham Platner is not Eric Swalwell. He’s had real demons since he came back from serving in the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars. I believe the sex texts although unacceptable do not seem to be indicating Platner has predatory behavior. If anything, he may have not been secure emotionally but he also had PTSD to deal with at the same time.
If Platner’s wife is already aware of this, it’s different than Swalwell’s wife being completely blindsided when Swalwell became predatory while still being married to her. The latter cannot be spinned.
There also does not need to be a rational explanation for all choices and behavior. Some men are one thing in public, and may be skilled politically, but that does not mean they aren't pieces of shit in private. (See the political vs private conduct of the Kennedy family for example)
I agree.
All that needs to be stated is that Platner is a human being and human beings can make mistakes, even like this.
And some people might be of the opinion that there is almost certainly more and worse to come from this guy. He's our candidate, no changing that.
This is my concern, and has been along. The steady drip, drip, drip of bad news on Platner is precisely what I was worried about from day 1. Suffice it to say, my worry has not abated and I expect further revelations as we move into the Fall. Regardless, as you point out, he's our horse now so we might as well all get onboard.
The thing is he's been largely immune to these scandals in polling.
For now I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt, as none of these scandals thus far have seem to caught on that much, and have seen reasonable explanations and apologies on his end.
I struggle to say certain things on here about Platner without sounding insulting, but what has this guy ever done to warrant giving him the benefit of the doubt?
His apologies for his now numerous scandals have credible reasoning behind them and make logical sense as to why he would do things the way he has (his social media posts came at a time where his mental health was in question, this current "cheating" scandal was resolved long before it came into the limelight, and his wife and him have reconciled). His campaign has been genuine and sincere, grassroots and issue focused. Part of the reason he's so controversial is because he's been willing to go against the establishment wing of the Democratic Party as well as establishment politics in general. He has a proven track record of caring about progressive issues (see his activism in high school). He's not independently wealthy and doesn't come across as an arrogant asshole like many other politicians do.
I give him the benefit of the doubt because he's a human like the rest of us, and is allowed to make mistakes. I have a little bit of empathy for him. To be so cynical regarding his candidacy also ignores the many other ongoing political scandals that the mainstream media doesn't give as much attention.
I see you have a negative opinion on him, so I'll stop there. All of this is to say I'm also willing to change my mind if he doesn't demonstrate these qualities any longer, or if a more serious scandal emerges.
You mean as the nominee for the democrats? If these scandals keep popping up he might be going down to defeat in November.
He's leading by 6-9 points right now and that's even after the scandals that came out last year.
Well no polls have been released regarding this *latest* scandal, which is different than the others. It wouldn't surprise me IF IF IF a couple bad polls come out in the next week, there's "drop out" chatter. But time is certainly running out.
It's not really different from the others. I can't imagine people will be more offended by him texting other women than his tattoo or his Reddit posts.
No, he’s not. But we took a huge risk as a party by accepting this nobody with enough red flags to fill Six Flags with as our standard bearer in the most important Senate seat. The Platner deadenders own this if we end up losing this seat. We knew about a lot of his issues In October of last year, and had five months to find a new young progressive who wasn’t 79 years old or unpopular with labor.
I think the worry may have been more valid if he was showing real weakness in his polling after this scandal.
We don't know it hasn't yet. The scandal is literally a day old.
Well his previous scandals haven't really hurt him.
I dont know why people think this is the straw that will break the camel. IMO it's literally the weakest of his several "scandals". Democrats are acting like Republicans circa 1996 about a private matter which the wife knew about. Huge nothingburger.
Who really owns this is Troy Jackson et al who were so shell-shocked by the Gideon loss in 2020 that they wimped out running against Collins at the beginning of the cycle.
Or maybe Jackson, in particular at least, would rather be an executive than a legislator at this point.
IA-GOV: I went to Zach Lahn's event in Ankeny (a suburb of Des Moines) on Sunday. For anyone who wants to see what this guy's pitch is about, here is the full video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kc6kl018PRY
Rob Sand would need to completely rethink his case if this guy wins the nomination because he is running on a change message and can't be tied to anything enacted by Congress or Iowa's GOP trifecta.
Since you are on the ground in Iowa and have done a lot of research, do you have any predictions for the key primary races there tomorrow?
I think Turek is favored in IA-Sen due to the massive outside spending by VoteVets.
I don't know about the Republican primary for governor but I wouldn't be surprised if Lahn wins anyway. My full write-up on that is here:
https://laurabelin.substack.com/p/as-feenstra-sinks-gop-establishment
Interesting, so Feenstra might be weaker due to his state and national ties?
For sure, every Democrat would rather see Sand run against Feenstra.
In fact that has become a central part of Lahn's pitch: Feenstra would lose to Rob Sand but I would beat Rob Sand. It's near the very end of that video I posted to YouTube.
Great, thanks! Hoping for Feenstra then.
Feenstra is also just a terrible candidate on every level.
I regret that I haven't finished my big Wahls/Turek post! I was planning to work on it Friday and Saturday but I got sidetracked by the GOP race for governor.
Great article Laura, I will just cross my fingers and hope the Trump endorsement drags Feenstra across the line tomorrow, to give Sand a better chance in the Fall.
I guess it's good Trump endorsed Feenstra then.
Happy Pride month!
It says "Mazzie" instead of "Mazzei" thrice in paras 7 and 8 of the OK-Gov section.
Thank you, I've fixed.
In the FL House items, worth pointing out per the lead state house sponsor of a law passed this year on candidate qualification, Allison Tant, that Parnas almost certainly does not qualify to refile as an independent/no party affiliation (NPA).
https://x.com/AllisonTantFL/status/2060750208292544575
https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2026/91
And as trivia, regarding Moise and Bastien's effots to be the first Haitian-descent member of Congress in 2011, Mia Love took that title in 2015 and then Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick was ofc the first Floridian.
Mayor of Overland Park Curt Skoog launched a last second campaign for governor. He was initially elected to city council as a republican, but switched parties in 2021 before running for mayor. OP is the largest city in Johnson County, where all of the dem candidates for governor are from.
https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article315962374.html
Could his candidacy gain enough traction to make a 3-way race between him, Holscher and Corson?
Yes, I can see him eating into both of their bases of support. Holscher and Corson‘s senate districts both include parts of Overland Park. Makes for a very unpredictable primary since every candidate has the same geographic base of support.
But Corson has the support of the two most recently elected Democratic governors. That’s gotta count for a lot, right?
Not really. The only available poll has Holscher up 24 points, though that was in January. It's practically an ideological battle, as Corson is seen as more establishment compared to Holscher's supposed progressivism, and Corson did take donations from CoreCivic in 2024.
On having endorsements from Kelly and Sebelius, Holscher also has an endorsement from John Carlin, who was the last living Democrat to be elected governor before them, so it goes both ways.
That was a Holscher internal though when voters don’t know anything about them or who’s backing them. I think it’s basically worthless.
I'm not sure tbh. I don't think Skoog would have gotten in if he thought Corson had it in the bag.
If the CA-Gov race is Becerra vs Steyer, it helps downballot Dems while depressing downballot GOP turnout. If the CA-Gov race is Becerra vs Hilton, it hurts Dems esp in places like CA-22, where Hilton will campaign with Valadao to pump up GOP turnout. (At least, that's the realization I've come to and am sharing on social media) So unsure Dems' best bet is to vote for the Dem in second place, Steyer.
Given the shift we've seen to Democrats among Hispanic voters, I strongly suspect Hilton campaigning with Valadao would hurt Valadao's candidacy. But I do agree that having no Republican candidate at the top of the ticket would hurt Valadao even more.
I also suspect (despite the DCCC's apparent belief) that if Villegas becomes the nominee in CA-22, Democrats are favored to win. Having a Hispanic last name has seemed to benefit candidates in this area in the past (and probably has helped Valadao win reelection, even though he's actually of Portuguese descent).
CA-22 is a district where I would be very interested in seeing some quality polling. I don't think any general election matchup polls have been leaked so far.
Isn't it pretty easy to vote in California by mail? I would imagine most republicans are just going to skip the gov race and vote to help out Valadao if Hilton doesn't make it. It's not like they have to drag themselves to a voting booth. Not saying it won't hurt somewhat but i think it's a little overblown to say republicans won't vote.
Weeks ago I received my mail-in ballot and dropped it off in the mail two or so weeks ago. The process is made easy and I get notifications in advance by mail about the ballot beforehand.
It's easy and yet millions of people don't vote every primary and general election. Being aware and enthused about the races and candidates and national implications is what causes people to vote.
From last week, but bipartisan constitutional amendments were introduced to change MI to move from using conventions to nominate SOS; AG and boards members of education, University of Michigan, Michigan State University and Wayne State University to primaries for SOS and AG and gubernatorial appointments for the boards. (One deals with all of the above, the other just focuses on the SOS and AG nominees.) Neither effort is addressing supreme court nominations at conventions.
Amendments require 2/3rds passage in each chamber first before it goes to voters for a simple majority. If it passes before 6/5, it could be added to the 8/4 primaries (but unlikely).
https://bridgemi.com/michigan-government/lawmakers-elect-michigan-ag-sos-in-primaries-not-at-conventions/
Long overdue.
Question: Why cannot some entity advance a new lawsuit on the basis that the Founding Fathers did not intend US Congressional districts that look like a salamander. Why would this not appeal to the ORIGINALISTS? With the advances of A.I. and other data-gathering entities in recent years, would there not be a chance to install a data-driven process for new maps after each Census? Keep municipalities in a whole district and maintain regular shapes. It would be fair to all parties and avoid a lot of in-fighting. Things have changed since SCOTUS refused to get involved...was it in a 2019 case?
The salamander shape you discuss is subjective, and fairness and actual proportionality doesn't come from shapes of districts, it comes from common regions and voting groups. You can have a terrible looking district that is part of a fair map (see Louisiana's current 2024 map).
For example, you wouldn't combine California's North Coast with that of inner mountainous regions, as they have different cultures. But a big district in the northern part of the state looks good.
Thanks- I understand your good point, and I regret the slander to the lowly salamander. My question remains: Is there not a data-driven method that the tech-fearful SCOTUS might be willing to consider...if it came up through the lower courts.
I'd say at the time of every redraw per the census, mapmakers should compile data from statewide results from the past decade and apportion seats based on the average percentage of the vote each party gets, then also try to ensure municipalities are within a district like you said.
KS-Gov: Former Gov. Jeff Colyer has dropped out of the race on the last day of filing.
https://x.com/i/status/2061504921564742096
AK-Gov: so has Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom
https://x.com/i/status/2061513871072870804
PA-Gov poll: Shapiro (D) leads Treasurer McGarrity (R) 53-29
https://x.com/i/status/2061429486311076352
I'm looking a lot at Lancaster. Washington and Pike are also possibilites.
Would likely look much more like 2022, just bigger margins everywhere, particularly in Dauphin, Cumberland, York, Lancaster county area.
Is there any sense of who the strongest Republicans are in the Alaska race? I would've thought she'd be near the top, but I guess she thought differently.
Businesswoman Bernadette Wilson and former Anchorage mayor Dave Bronson have seemed to lead the pack so far. Former state Sen. Click Bishop has also gained some traction, and physician Matt Heilala has poured millions of his own money into his campaign.
Dahlstrom was a risk to drop out if she made it to Top 4 in 3rd or 4th place since that’s what she did in 2024. It’s good for us she’s dropping now. We need to encourage/pressure any Dem that gets 3rd or 4th to drop out as well and coalesce around the top Dem in the general.
*If* another Dem gets 3rd or 4th. The most recent poll showed just Tom Begich with a pretty big plurality for the Democrats and then Wilson, Bronson and Bishop rounding out the pack.
There’s a risk of fifth or sixth getting the spots if anyone else in top 4 drop out. Eric Hafner got 6th on the 2024 primary ballot but ended up in the November general because 2 Republicans dropped out. Hopefully other Dems drop if there is a clear Dem frontrunner, as seems likely with Tom Begich.
California Elections and Policy Poll has the Cal gov race at Becerra 29, Hilton 23, Steyer 18, Bianco11. H2H Becerra 37 Steyer 26, Becerra 58 Hilton 35, Steyer 55 Hilton 34, Hilton 34 Bianco 15, Styer 31 Porter 20, Becerrra 42 Porter 22
Kounalakis, Ma, Bonta, Weber, Cohen, Kim have purality leads in the other races.
https://primaryschool.ghost.io/new-jersey-2026-special-edition/
Although Primary School is no longer publishing, a special 2026 New Jersey edition for tomorrow’s primaries in that state has been published, for those curious. (Author Nick Tagliaferro has hinted on Bluesky he may also do a NY run-down).
I have some news from abroad to share :)
Good news:
Péter Magyar has been good so far on pretty much every issue. I was skeptical of him at first because he rarely challenged Orbán's views during the campaign, but I'm happily eating crow.
Malta's snap election, called by the center-left ruling Labour Party to limit the backlash they would've faced due to being in charge when the global economy sucks, turned out well. Labour won the election, and will keep governing Malta as it has since 2013.
Although the right-leaning parties won a majority in the election Denmark held a couple of months ago, irreconcilable differences between the center-right and the far right prevented them from forming a government. This is still not officially confirmed, but it seems that the center-right Moderates agreed to join the left-leaning parties and support the incumbent center-left prime minister Mette Frederiksen after all other options failed.
Bad news:
The far right got stronger in the recent parliamentary election in Cyprus, although part of that was due to inefficient vote splitting among the minor centrist parties. The parliament now has a two-thirds conservative majority, which is historically large.
The far-right candidate unexpectedly came first in the first round of the presidential election in Colombia. The candidate who came third is also conservative, so I expect the far right to claim the presidency of Colombia in the second round, as they have done in other Latin American countries recently.
The right had a majority in the first round four years ago but the left wing candidate won the runoff.
You're right, but back then, Petro didn't need to win over many of Gutiérrez's voters. This time, if the same people vote as in the first round, Cepeda would need about half of Valencia's supporters (as well as all of Fajardo's). Cepeda can definitely win this, but I think he's the underdog.
Not happening:
They're the incumbents now, and deeply unpopular ones.
They won very closely in Bogota and Barranquilla, and those are the places they need to run up the score if they were to have a chance (I expect Cepeda to lose Barranquilla in the second round, actually)
Their reaction was very Trumpy (claims of cheating that have been widely rejected)
And they have spent all day making silly mistakes (petty complains on the use of the football team's jersey, demanding a debate they refused for months, violating electoral rules of political participation by officials, calls for ministers to quit to campaing) and the general feeling is that they seem lost and desperate.
Excellent summary, much better than what I wrote. Thank you!
Thank you!
I'll note that in the grand scheme of things, Cyprus's elections were pretty boring. Sure, the far-right party gained 4 seats and now has 8, and whatever Fidas' party is entered parliament with 4 seats, but that's 12/56. The rest of the seats are held by parties ranging from center-right to left-wing that seem fairly benign. You seem to be counting DIKO as conservative, which isn't accurate for the most part as far as I'm aware. I'm hoping same-sex marriage can be legalized in this term.
Thanks for the correction! Honestly, I don't know much about the situation there and haven't really checked my facts. I was relying on the following article, which describes DIKO as a "right-of-center force" that is in "strategic alignment" with ELAM and DISY:
https://en.philenews.com/politics/cyprus-legislative-election-historic-right-wing-majority-parliament/
If this is inaccurate, could you tell me where to find better info?
In all fairness, some places do seem to describe DIKO as center-right, but it's notably also a member of a center-left European party (Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats) and international organization (Progressive Alliance), and seems to also be frequently described as centrist or center-left. Unfortunately a lot of Wikipedia's sources don't work, but this one (https://books.google.com/books?id=q_cG61SQ8MAC&pg=PA16#v=onepage&q&f=false) indicates it used to be center-right, but has shifted left since.
Former Independent Alaska Gov. Bill Walker filed to run again for governor at the last minute. Idk what impact this has on the race, but probably not anything good for us since he won his sole term on Democratic votes.
I think this was mentioned in the Digest. I was also about to make one of my comprehensive filing deadline posts (I don't know if you've seen one, I just did Wyoming the other day) but realized Alaska's filing deadline is still in about 2 hours.
He pulled the trigger on a run instead of just considering it.
Still, the link from the Digest under the AK-Gov item points to his filing, which was three days ago. He probably is running, but he still has 2 hours to change his mind, as do the others.
He filed. I don’t know why we’re arguing over this. This is different from merely considering a run.
https://www.adn.com/politics/2026/06/01/early-shakeup-as-alaska-candidates-have-until-5-pm-monday-to-file-for-office/
I see. The sources from a few days ago, like the one mentioned above, say he filed back then, but this source is more accurate, it seems.
All good.
Since the top four move onto a ranked choice runoff, I think it doesn't hurt nearly as much? It's hard to say how he would govern if he wins this time, but he was at least the Dem endorsee in 2014 and governed with a Dem LG his whole term as a moderate former Repub.
There’s a risk that not enough Dem voters pref Begich or the other Dem second. Republicans were strategic in 2024 in getting their candidates to drop out after the top 4 primary. Dems should encourage the same. There’s not much margin for error in a state as red as Alaska. Walker muddies the water even further. Hopefully he goes nowhere.
If he governs like he did from 2019–2023 and has the best chance to win, I'm not super opposed to Walker winning over one of the Dems. He's lightyears better than Bronson or Wilson.
He got ran out of office in 2018 and got third place in 2022. He clearly is not well-liked. I think he’s far from our best chance. Just a 75-year-old has been who can let go.
Might he drop out in the second round if he's not top 2? That could help Begich.
Hopefully, but i wouldn’t hold my breath. He didn’t in 2022.
https://www.sos.ks.gov/elections/elections_upcoming_candidate.aspx
Kansas filing deadline:
KS-Sen: Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces at least 11 Democratic challengers, but the most prominent are probably pastor Adam Hamilton, state Sen. Patrick Schmidt, and businesswoman Sandy Spidel Neumann.
KS-3: Neither of Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids's Republican opponents, former Shawnee councilor Eric Jenkins and businessman Chase LaPorte, dropped out, so they will face off to take on Davids.
KS-Gov: There's a lot going on both sides here:
-Democratic state Sens. Cindy Holscher and Ethan Corson as well as Overland Park mayor Curt Skoog, who launched a last-minute campaign earlier today, are running.
-Republicans include Secretary of State Scott Schwab, Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, state Sen. Ty Masterson, businessman Phil Sarnecki, former Johnson County commissioner Charlotte O'Hara and businesswoman Stacy Rogers. Additionally, Nick and Katy Reinecker, a couple with no prior political experience, will run on a ticket together. Former Gov. Jeff Colyer dropped out earlier today (thanks Brendan).
KS-SoS: Republican state Rep. Pat Proctor is apparently uncontested for his side, while former state Rep. Jennifer Day and construction worker Sam Lane are the Democrats running to succeed Schwab.
KS-AG: Incumbent Republican Kris Kobach, long a source of controversy in state politics, will face Democrat Chris Mann in a rematch, as neither had intraparty opposition.
KS-Insurance Commissioner: Republican state Rep. Daniel Hawkins and Democratic state Sen. Dinah Sykes will face off to succeed Schmidt, as they also didn't have intraparty opposition.
If this is totally final, it looks like all five incumbent Repub members of the education board are retiring rather than run for reelection (Michelle Dombrosky is the LG running mate to Charlotte O'Hara). Conservatives only flipped control of it after 2024.
https://apnews.com/article/kansas-nebraska-public-school-teaching-dei-crt-84fb99b50f1e64740016c1d7f0bf665c
The deadline was at 12 PM CST (1 PM EST), so it is final, as far as I know.