Yeah when I saw how badly things were going elsewhere I knew Caraveo was in trouble. Commission designed this district to be "Hispanic opportunity" only if Democrats could sustain 65%+ with them. By the time polls closed I was not shocked at all to see Trump over 40% in Costilla county. These areas dodged most of the red shift in 2020, s…
Yeah when I saw how badly things were going elsewhere I knew Caraveo was in trouble. Commission designed this district to be "Hispanic opportunity" only if Democrats could sustain 65%+ with them. By the time polls closed I was not shocked at all to see Trump over 40% in Costilla county. These areas dodged most of the red shift in 2020, seeing only tiny shifts because of how badly Trump bombed all over in Colorado (and honestly, how much of them already realigned in 2016, somewhat contrary to other trends that year), but it caught up to us this time. Lost the Dem state rep in Greeley too (though oddly enough both our Pueblo reps hung on). Almost lost the Adams County state senate seat which was Biden +15, depending on huge margins in Commerce City and Westminster to offset rural eastern Adams and Arapahoe counties (inane district, like many drawn by that commission).
Mesa moving left while Pitkin and Eagle moved right was not expected at all though. Douglas and El Paso holding the line is something, Democrats are absolutely going to tie these counties the next time we do well presidentially. Weird coalitions continuing to evolve. Republicans are hosed here regardless, they aren't getting the legislature back with Jefferson electing unanimous Dem delegations and Colorado Springs electing two Dem senators (!)
Probably up in the air at this point. Imagine most of the statewide officeholders and US house members besides DeGette will give it a look. Ken Salazar might also poke his head up again. The Republicans maybe Kent Thiry though happily, his RCV scheme went up in flames so maybe he does not think he can get through a GOP primary. One benefit to having Bobert in CO-04 is it's not a springboard for statewide office anymore like it was for Gardner.
Yeah when I saw how badly things were going elsewhere I knew Caraveo was in trouble. Commission designed this district to be "Hispanic opportunity" only if Democrats could sustain 65%+ with them. By the time polls closed I was not shocked at all to see Trump over 40% in Costilla county. These areas dodged most of the red shift in 2020, seeing only tiny shifts because of how badly Trump bombed all over in Colorado (and honestly, how much of them already realigned in 2016, somewhat contrary to other trends that year), but it caught up to us this time. Lost the Dem state rep in Greeley too (though oddly enough both our Pueblo reps hung on). Almost lost the Adams County state senate seat which was Biden +15, depending on huge margins in Commerce City and Westminster to offset rural eastern Adams and Arapahoe counties (inane district, like many drawn by that commission).
Mesa moving left while Pitkin and Eagle moved right was not expected at all though. Douglas and El Paso holding the line is something, Democrats are absolutely going to tie these counties the next time we do well presidentially. Weird coalitions continuing to evolve. Republicans are hosed here regardless, they aren't getting the legislature back with Jefferson electing unanimous Dem delegations and Colorado Springs electing two Dem senators (!)
Who's the favorite for the dem nomination for governor there? Neguse?
Probably up in the air at this point. Imagine most of the statewide officeholders and US house members besides DeGette will give it a look. Ken Salazar might also poke his head up again. The Republicans maybe Kent Thiry though happily, his RCV scheme went up in flames so maybe he does not think he can get through a GOP primary. One benefit to having Bobert in CO-04 is it's not a springboard for statewide office anymore like it was for Gardner.