Caution is the right way to go about it. That said, I do have more optimism for special election overperformance portending a good midterm than I do for it portending a good presidential election. Not that it's definitive either way.
Caution is the right way to go about it. That said, I do have more optimism for special election overperformance portending a good midterm than I do for it portending a good presidential election. Not that it's definitive either way.
Agreed. In my head, this shows that damn near every Dem showed up to vote while the GOP had typical voter drop-off in a special, giving us a tiny win. The drop-off will be much less in a midterm but if Dems are operating at Pres year strength and the GOP is operating at midterm year strength, the GOP loses big time.
Caution is the right way to go about it. That said, I do have more optimism for special election overperformance portending a good midterm than I do for it portending a good presidential election. Not that it's definitive either way.
I think the important part is that we are now the out party
Agreed. In my head, this shows that damn near every Dem showed up to vote while the GOP had typical voter drop-off in a special, giving us a tiny win. The drop-off will be much less in a midterm but if Dems are operating at Pres year strength and the GOP is operating at midterm year strength, the GOP loses big time.
Exactly
Same - seems like itтАЩs a better correlation