Keep in mind that Iowa's 100th district was a Democratic stronghold for decades and went for Obama by double digits, and went Democrat as recently as Fred Hubbell in the 2018 gubernatorial race. In terms of demographics and recent political history, it's the spitting image of the Senate district that flipped for Mike Zimmer. I'm not pred…
Keep in mind that Iowa's 100th district was a Democratic stronghold for decades and went for Obama by double digits, and went Democrat as recently as Fred Hubbell in the 2018 gubernatorial race. In terms of demographics and recent political history, it's the spitting image of the Senate district that flipped for Mike Zimmer. I'm not predicting a win, but there's no reason to believe that Democrats have any less chance of pulling it off here than in Zimmer's Senate race.
It may have changed just a little. I'm not exactly sure but since it's in the far southeastern corner of Iowa, state lines on two sides of it prevent it from changing much during redistricting.
An interesting anecdote is that Iowa's 100th House district is home to Keokuk in the state's southeastern corner, which back in 2011, University of Iowa Professor Stephen Bloom famously described in The Atlantic as a "depressed, crime-infested slum town" and "one of the skuzziest cities I've ever been to, and that's saying something." It's the kind of place that was the perfect petri dish for cultural backlash and the Trump realignment.
Haven't most of the places a lot of the public consider "slum cities" remained Democratic? I'm thinking of places like Detroit, Cleveland, Baltimore, St. Louis and New Orleans, for example, at least by reputations that are probably dated and in any case grossly unfair.
The difference between Keokuk and those cities is race. Its union influence waning, the white working class voters of Lee County started acting more like white working class voters elsewhere in the country in the Trump era.
I think concurrent with that difference is population. Keokuk's population is 9900 as of 2020, and 9500 as of 2023. St Louis is 300k in 2020 and 280k in 2023. Cleveland 370k and 360k. Detroit 640k and 630k. All of Lee county, where Keokuk is, was 33k people in 2020.
That's a huge difference in population and will shape the way the place is developed. In all senses of sociologically, physically, and economically. Even if Keokuk had the same ethnic demographic breakdowns as any of those other cities it would vote differently. Of course, the population difference is itself a major factor in the demographic difference.
That sounds like it could make sense, but let's pursue it further. How is voting in rural Black-majority areas different from in Black-majority urban areas, and is it more similar to voting in Black-majority urban areas or white-majority rural areas?
We would have to dig into some of the deep south majority black rural areas to get proper insight into this. Which of course has the difficulty of cross-comparison with somewhere in the midwest.
My thinking was that minorities in a rural area are typically going to have lower turnout and be more socially conservative, all else held equal.
That's interesting. Keokuk was a hub for Jewish immigrants from Germany in the 19th century. My great-great grandfather married and lived in nearby Fairfield until moving back to Missouri. He is buried in Keokuk.
Always gotta be careful with district numbers because they often change during redistricting! The predecessor version of HD-100 was numbered HD-83. It shifted a bit geographically but is politically very similar.
This should give Democrats a bit of hope in the IA-SEN race given Joni Ernst won re-election by a much smaller amount back in 2020 than in 2014 and that she's chair of the Senate DOGE Committee.
Keep in mind that Iowa's 100th district was a Democratic stronghold for decades and went for Obama by double digits, and went Democrat as recently as Fred Hubbell in the 2018 gubernatorial race. In terms of demographics and recent political history, it's the spitting image of the Senate district that flipped for Mike Zimmer. I'm not predicting a win, but there's no reason to believe that Democrats have any less chance of pulling it off here than in Zimmer's Senate race.
Did it change in redistricting?
It may have changed just a little. I'm not exactly sure but since it's in the far southeastern corner of Iowa, state lines on two sides of it prevent it from changing much during redistricting.
An interesting anecdote is that Iowa's 100th House district is home to Keokuk in the state's southeastern corner, which back in 2011, University of Iowa Professor Stephen Bloom famously described in The Atlantic as a "depressed, crime-infested slum town" and "one of the skuzziest cities I've ever been to, and that's saying something." It's the kind of place that was the perfect petri dish for cultural backlash and the Trump realignment.
Haven't most of the places a lot of the public consider "slum cities" remained Democratic? I'm thinking of places like Detroit, Cleveland, Baltimore, St. Louis and New Orleans, for example, at least by reputations that are probably dated and in any case grossly unfair.
The difference between Keokuk and those cities is race. Its union influence waning, the white working class voters of Lee County started acting more like white working class voters elsewhere in the country in the Trump era.
I think concurrent with that difference is population. Keokuk's population is 9900 as of 2020, and 9500 as of 2023. St Louis is 300k in 2020 and 280k in 2023. Cleveland 370k and 360k. Detroit 640k and 630k. All of Lee county, where Keokuk is, was 33k people in 2020.
That's a huge difference in population and will shape the way the place is developed. In all senses of sociologically, physically, and economically. Even if Keokuk had the same ethnic demographic breakdowns as any of those other cities it would vote differently. Of course, the population difference is itself a major factor in the demographic difference.
That sounds like it could make sense, but let's pursue it further. How is voting in rural Black-majority areas different from in Black-majority urban areas, and is it more similar to voting in Black-majority urban areas or white-majority rural areas?
We would have to dig into some of the deep south majority black rural areas to get proper insight into this. Which of course has the difficulty of cross-comparison with somewhere in the midwest.
My thinking was that minorities in a rural area are typically going to have lower turnout and be more socially conservative, all else held equal.
Probably, but I also think they vote more like urban Black communities than rural white communities.
Certainly! But their vote behavior will still be identifiably different from urban areas.
Probably, but I also think they vote more like urban Black communities than rural white communities.
I take your point, but there are some cities with heavily Democratic white voters, including D.C.
That's interesting. Keokuk was a hub for Jewish immigrants from Germany in the 19th century. My great-great grandfather married and lived in nearby Fairfield until moving back to Missouri. He is buried in Keokuk.
Very helpful reminders. Dems even won the actual district in 2018! https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=848005
Ballotpedia shows that HD-100 used to be a smaller-sized district up north in Dubuque. Am I reading that wrong?
Always gotta be careful with district numbers because they often change during redistricting! The predecessor version of HD-100 was numbered HD-83. It shifted a bit geographically but is politically very similar.
Thanks, David. Very helpful. I now see the 2018 Democratic victory and relatively closer GOP wins in 2020 and 2022.
This should give Democrats a bit of hope in the IA-SEN race given Joni Ernst won re-election by a much smaller amount back in 2020 than in 2014 and that she's chair of the Senate DOGE Committee.
And Senator Ernst did the unthinkable: she voted to confirm Trump’s DUI hire as SecDef. Unforgivable!