The main competitive seats this cycle are going to be Ohio and Montana. Next tier has AZ, NV, MI. We could maybe add PA and WI to that group. All defense for us. Stretch offensive targets of TX and FL. I am not optimistic about either offensive target, but I am more skeptical of Florida than of Texas.
With the D candidate values being first, the 2Q fundraising numbers are:
MT: $10.4m - $4.2m
OH: $12.4m - $4.3m
AZ: $10.3m - $4.3m
MI: $6.4m - $2m
NV: $7.3m - $4m
PA: $8m - $4.5m (+2m self-fund)
WI: $7.3m - $2.3m (+5m self-fund)
FL: $4.8m - $2.5m (+$5.8m self-fund)
TX: $10.3m - $7.9m
Based on those numbers and taking into account polling and other data, my thinking would be that the best places to donate are Montana and Nevada. Maybe Texas if you want an aspirational reach.
Tester has a big money advantage and it is a small state, but it looks like the hardest hold for us and arguably merits the higher priority despite already having lots of money available. Nevada has a small financial advantage than the other tier 2 seats and the state we haven't done as well there lately, not enough for me to feel comfortable. Casey and Baldwin actually have the smallest financial advantage of our defensive seats, due to self-funding by republican candidates — there's a good argument that they could use some money.
Texas we will in all likelihood lose this cycle but Allred is certainly the furthest competitive candidate from reaching financial saturation.
I'm still making my own mind up on where money would go the furthest and most usefully, but that's the main data I'm going to use while making my final decisions.
As an eternal optimist, I'm giving most to the Senate races and most of that to Murcasel-Powell. Two reasons:
1. She's raised less than candidates in much smaller states. Even if you count the self-funding, I'm pretty sure she's raised less per voter than any others of the nine seats above.
2. Yet she seems to be doing well against Skeletor, and has a good chance of being the 50th Dem+Indy senator.
Based on polling averages (which aren't very dependable in Senate races at this stage but still are the best objective information), only Tester has a better chance at being the tipping-point senator. The other factor of course: is the abortion referendum, which could improve Dem turnout in FL.
This is something I've been thinking about to do in the next few weeks as well.
There is the old DKE Q2 fundraising data here: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/17/2254790/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2Q-2024-Senate-fundraising-reports-roundup
The main competitive seats this cycle are going to be Ohio and Montana. Next tier has AZ, NV, MI. We could maybe add PA and WI to that group. All defense for us. Stretch offensive targets of TX and FL. I am not optimistic about either offensive target, but I am more skeptical of Florida than of Texas.
With the D candidate values being first, the 2Q fundraising numbers are:
MT: $10.4m - $4.2m
OH: $12.4m - $4.3m
AZ: $10.3m - $4.3m
MI: $6.4m - $2m
NV: $7.3m - $4m
PA: $8m - $4.5m (+2m self-fund)
WI: $7.3m - $2.3m (+5m self-fund)
FL: $4.8m - $2.5m (+$5.8m self-fund)
TX: $10.3m - $7.9m
Based on those numbers and taking into account polling and other data, my thinking would be that the best places to donate are Montana and Nevada. Maybe Texas if you want an aspirational reach.
Tester has a big money advantage and it is a small state, but it looks like the hardest hold for us and arguably merits the higher priority despite already having lots of money available. Nevada has a small financial advantage than the other tier 2 seats and the state we haven't done as well there lately, not enough for me to feel comfortable. Casey and Baldwin actually have the smallest financial advantage of our defensive seats, due to self-funding by republican candidates — there's a good argument that they could use some money.
Texas we will in all likelihood lose this cycle but Allred is certainly the furthest competitive candidate from reaching financial saturation.
I'm still making my own mind up on where money would go the furthest and most usefully, but that's the main data I'm going to use while making my final decisions.
As an eternal optimist, I'm giving most to the Senate races and most of that to Murcasel-Powell. Two reasons:
1. She's raised less than candidates in much smaller states. Even if you count the self-funding, I'm pretty sure she's raised less per voter than any others of the nine seats above.
2. Yet she seems to be doing well against Skeletor, and has a good chance of being the 50th Dem+Indy senator.
Based on polling averages (which aren't very dependable in Senate races at this stage but still are the best objective information), only Tester has a better chance at being the tipping-point senator. The other factor of course: is the abortion referendum, which could improve Dem turnout in FL.
Solid reasons for donating to her! I've become a strong-pessimist on Florida lately, but I'd love for her to win and prove me wrong.
I definitely plan on donating to both Allred and Mucarsel Powell, as well as some defending incumbents.