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Paleo's avatar

Canada 2025 election. One poll shows a big shift since Trudeau stepped down. Conservative lead down to 7 points. An early election, probably May, would now benefit the Liberals.

"While the Conservatives would no doubt win the most seats if an election were held tomorrow, it is unlikely they would form a majority government given the renewed Liberal support in Ontario."

https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2025/01/liberals-break-30-points-following-trump-inauguration/

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Henrik's avatar

I’d wait to see more polls showing a low double digits/high single digit lead for the Tories before assuming a trend. But, Pierre has handled the last month really poorly; his whole campaign was predicated on being “not Trudeau” and Trump has messed with his best laid plans

In related news, Doug Ford could soon call a snap election in Ontario now that he’s the face of Canadian pushback…

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Paleo's avatar

That's another factor that could work against the Conservatives nationally.

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Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

The premier of Alberta getting checked by Ford for being weak-kneed about Trump was interesting.

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James Trout's avatar

If only the left wasn't so weak in Alberta outside Edmonton and some parts of Calgary............

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Jonathan's avatar

I think trudeau just went past his sell date; I am not convinced that the conservative alternative is very appealing; if anything, maybe a lot of voters just decide to stay home(if Biden voters would not have stayed home, Kamala Harris wins)

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James Trout's avatar

That would still result in a Tory Prime Minister though. Only ONCE did Stephen Harper receive a majority government (in 2011). Ironically it was after that government that his Conservative Party lost the government to Justin Trudeau and the Liberals in 2015. And THAT new government ended up being Trudeau's sole majority government.

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Paleo's avatar

Yes. But a minority government. With all other parties ideologically separate from the Conservatives.

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