As a part time Arizona resident, I'm skeptical of the polls coming out of Arizona at the moment. I believe Harris will close the gap, and the numbers on election day will be squeaky close. There continue to be Republicans who are endorsing Harris, the latest, Jimmy McCain, John McCain's youngest son who is active military. McCain express…
As a part time Arizona resident, I'm skeptical of the polls coming out of Arizona at the moment. I believe Harris will close the gap, and the numbers on election day will be squeaky close. There continue to be Republicans who are endorsing Harris, the latest, Jimmy McCain, John McCain's youngest son who is active military. McCain expressed outrage at Trump's Arlington cemetery stunt, endorsed Harris, then re-registered as a Democrat claiming Republicans no longer represent the values of he and his Dad.
Also in Phoenix, Arpaio is toxic, and I cannot imagine his sidekick can get elected. He's tried before and failed.
Arizona still has a lot of corporate, Phoenix 40 Republicans who are turned off by anything that affects business stability, and Trump, Lake, election denying Rs do exactly that.
The Club for Growth did step in true but I think Gallego would really have to do something out of character to lose; obviously, the chances for Lake depend on Trump's coattails or lack thereof
I believe Gallego will win, but my gut reaction is that it will be close, or at least closer than current polls. There is a sizeable undecided group who I suspect are Republicans who hate Lake, but at the end of the day, they'll hold their noses and vote R.
Understandable but I just think she runs behind Trump and that Trump loses in Arizona; I go back to the point that just this week the CFG stepped in to fund her race( until then, she had been effectively triaged); my gut reaction is that Gallego wins about equally to Mark Kelly's win last go round
Considering she’s still litigating the 2022 loss in courts and Trump isn’t, I’d say yes. Though that bar of how terrible they are for each is already below the earth’s surface, so realistically there’s not much difference.
Sorry, I should have been clearer. You asked if there was any way she was worse and on the litigating the past election with frivolous lawsuits subject, she is. I don’t think she’s worse overall than Trump, but in that 1 specific way, she is, which is what you asked about, not which one is objectively worse.
Had you asked that I would have said Trump, no question. I also agree though that she underperforms Trump because voters view her as worse than him and that 2022 election results are far closer in their memories than 2020’s, thus, the collective amnesia about January 6th and Trump’s insanity, but people still remembering all of Lake’s insanity. I also think there’s a “crazy woman” penalty that a man either wouldn’t get or would get far less of, factor going on too.
For better or worse, from the 1950s through the 1980s, Phoenix was run like a company town. Fortunately during Arizona's early years, they had some true political greats (Carl Hayden, Barry Goldwater, John Driggs, etc), which helped offset their very small size vs their giant neighbor. Arizona got a relatively good deal on water where they could have been locked out, and Phoenix metro has very good road infrastructure.
When I look at most of their politicians today, particularly Republicans, I have to ask what the hell happened.
For an Easterner who thinks all the states out West are gigantic, it's a bit mind-bending to think of Arizona having a "small size," but of course I figured out that you mean their population vs. California's.
Actually, the city of Phoenix is the 5th largest city in the nation, but the Phoenix MSA is 10th. Dallas, Miami, and Atlanta MSAs are all bigger than Phoenix, but not by much.
I'm really hoping for us to pick up AZ-1 and AZ-6 and have been contributing to Amish Shah (since the primary) and Kirsten Engel (since 1Q). I'd love to hear any on-the-ground insights you have on these races.
I'm also hoping we pick up AZ CDs 1 and 6. My Mom has been voting against Schweikert for years, but unfortunately the allegedly independent redistricting commission took a part of his district in Democratic Phoenix and sunk it in Debbie Lesko's district. Regardless of what they did Schweikert has lost popularity and his time is limited. I'm hoping this will be the year.
As a part time Arizona resident, I'm skeptical of the polls coming out of Arizona at the moment. I believe Harris will close the gap, and the numbers on election day will be squeaky close. There continue to be Republicans who are endorsing Harris, the latest, Jimmy McCain, John McCain's youngest son who is active military. McCain expressed outrage at Trump's Arlington cemetery stunt, endorsed Harris, then re-registered as a Democrat claiming Republicans no longer represent the values of he and his Dad.
Also in Phoenix, Arpaio is toxic, and I cannot imagine his sidekick can get elected. He's tried before and failed.
Arizona still has a lot of corporate, Phoenix 40 Republicans who are turned off by anything that affects business stability, and Trump, Lake, election denying Rs do exactly that.
Appears to me that Lake is already triaged
Not by everyone, per the digest.
The Club for Growth did step in true but I think Gallego would really have to do something out of character to lose; obviously, the chances for Lake depend on Trump's coattails or lack thereof
I believe Gallego will win, but my gut reaction is that it will be close, or at least closer than current polls. There is a sizeable undecided group who I suspect are Republicans who hate Lake, but at the end of the day, they'll hold their noses and vote R.
Understandable but I just think she runs behind Trump and that Trump loses in Arizona; I go back to the point that just this week the CFG stepped in to fund her race( until then, she had been effectively triaged); my gut reaction is that Gallego wins about equally to Mark Kelly's win last go round
Is there any way in which she's objectively worse than Trump?
Fundraising maybe
Considering she’s still litigating the 2022 loss in courts and Trump isn’t, I’d say yes. Though that bar of how terrible they are for each is already below the earth’s surface, so realistically there’s not much difference.
I think he's worse, because he has hundreds of thousands of deaths on his head, but I think your argument is sensible the other way.
Sorry, I should have been clearer. You asked if there was any way she was worse and on the litigating the past election with frivolous lawsuits subject, she is. I don’t think she’s worse overall than Trump, but in that 1 specific way, she is, which is what you asked about, not which one is objectively worse.
Had you asked that I would have said Trump, no question. I also agree though that she underperforms Trump because voters view her as worse than him and that 2022 election results are far closer in their memories than 2020’s, thus, the collective amnesia about January 6th and Trump’s insanity, but people still remembering all of Lake’s insanity. I also think there’s a “crazy woman” penalty that a man either wouldn’t get or would get far less of, factor going on too.
That makes sense, but your other answer did, too, and I didn't mean to object to it.
I think she is a much worse candidate; both are vial humans
I had no idea what the Phoenix 40 was, so I looked it up. https://gplinc.org/leadership/phoenix-40/
For better or worse, from the 1950s through the 1980s, Phoenix was run like a company town. Fortunately during Arizona's early years, they had some true political greats (Carl Hayden, Barry Goldwater, John Driggs, etc), which helped offset their very small size vs their giant neighbor. Arizona got a relatively good deal on water where they could have been locked out, and Phoenix metro has very good road infrastructure.
When I look at most of their politicians today, particularly Republicans, I have to ask what the hell happened.
For an Easterner who thinks all the states out West are gigantic, it's a bit mind-bending to think of Arizona having a "small size," but of course I figured out that you mean their population vs. California's.
Yes, when my family moved to Arizona, the state had 3 US representatives, with a population of 1.7 million. Now population is about 7.5 million.
And the Phoenix metro area is what? The 5th most populous in the U.S.?
Actually, the city of Phoenix is the 5th largest city in the nation, but the Phoenix MSA is 10th. Dallas, Miami, and Atlanta MSAs are all bigger than Phoenix, but not by much.
I'm really hoping for us to pick up AZ-1 and AZ-6 and have been contributing to Amish Shah (since the primary) and Kirsten Engel (since 1Q). I'd love to hear any on-the-ground insights you have on these races.
I'm also hoping we pick up AZ CDs 1 and 6. My Mom has been voting against Schweikert for years, but unfortunately the allegedly independent redistricting commission took a part of his district in Democratic Phoenix and sunk it in Debbie Lesko's district. Regardless of what they did Schweikert has lost popularity and his time is limited. I'm hoping this will be the year.