I was looking at the results of the Canadian election, and I noticed something. Nationwide, 16 seats flipped from Liberal to Conservative. Of those, 13 were in Ontario, and 5 of those were in just one region of Ontario - the York region (this is the suburbs directly north of Toronto). In fact, the ridings in this region flipped from 7L-2…
I was looking at the results of the Canadian election, and I noticed something. Nationwide, 16 seats flipped from Liberal to Conservative. Of those, 13 were in Ontario, and 5 of those were in just one region of Ontario - the York region (this is the suburbs directly north of Toronto). In fact, the ridings in this region flipped from 7L-2C in 2021 to 8C-2L in this election (one seat was newly created in the most recent redistribution). Does anyone know why this particular region would be a hotbed of anti-Liberal sentiment right now while the Liberals held their own almost everywhere else?
2 reasons that have nothing to do with a specific party anti-Liberal sentiment: crime and the economy. Canada’s economy and inflation especially has made it very hard on a lot of people. Toronto has priced out all, but the wealthiest. The suburbs are getting to be that way fast, with house prices doubling or more.
Couple that with a tough on crime pitch in an area people are worried about it getting worse and you have a ripe recipe to flip seats from Liberal to Conservative from the “we need change” vote, which is exactly what happened in the 2024 US election. The “it can’t possibly get worse than now with someone else in charge” type of easy, infantile illogical thinking instead of examining the policies (which is harder, so voters don’t like to do it).
Those issues may have been muted when Trump was the main factor but in the final two weeks of the campaign, based on Abacus tracking, the concerns about Trump faded and gave the Conservatives an opening to make the case for change, Coletto said.
Affordability and crime were two issues that mattered to a lot of voters in that 905 region that worked against the Liberals, he said.
He said in many parts of the 905 area, there was the perception that crime, particularly auto thefts, had gotten out of hand, and that was linked to the Trudeau years.
"And I think the Conservatives in the final week-and-a-half of the campaign really tried to put a focus on that," Coletto said.
I was looking at the results of the Canadian election, and I noticed something. Nationwide, 16 seats flipped from Liberal to Conservative. Of those, 13 were in Ontario, and 5 of those were in just one region of Ontario - the York region (this is the suburbs directly north of Toronto). In fact, the ridings in this region flipped from 7L-2C in 2021 to 8C-2L in this election (one seat was newly created in the most recent redistribution). Does anyone know why this particular region would be a hotbed of anti-Liberal sentiment right now while the Liberals held their own almost everywhere else?
Don't know but maybe the Cost of living and immigration may have hurt liberals in the Toronto region. Just a guess.
2 reasons that have nothing to do with a specific party anti-Liberal sentiment: crime and the economy. Canada’s economy and inflation especially has made it very hard on a lot of people. Toronto has priced out all, but the wealthiest. The suburbs are getting to be that way fast, with house prices doubling or more.
Couple that with a tough on crime pitch in an area people are worried about it getting worse and you have a ripe recipe to flip seats from Liberal to Conservative from the “we need change” vote, which is exactly what happened in the 2024 US election. The “it can’t possibly get worse than now with someone else in charge” type of easy, infantile illogical thinking instead of examining the policies (which is harder, so voters don’t like to do it).
Those issues may have been muted when Trump was the main factor but in the final two weeks of the campaign, based on Abacus tracking, the concerns about Trump faded and gave the Conservatives an opening to make the case for change, Coletto said.
Affordability and crime were two issues that mattered to a lot of voters in that 905 region that worked against the Liberals, he said.
He said in many parts of the 905 area, there was the perception that crime, particularly auto thefts, had gotten out of hand, and that was linked to the Trudeau years.
"And I think the Conservatives in the final week-and-a-half of the campaign really tried to put a focus on that," Coletto said.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-vote-ontario-majority-conservatives-1.7523038