The indicators around manufacturing output and similar were blinking as early as 2018 - a big reason why Powell started cutting rates, along with rising WH pressure heading into an election year, to get ahead of it
That said, a mid-to-late 2020 recession in a no-COVID scenario is probably more of a 2001 (pre-9/11) type contraction, maybe a smidge worse if short of 1990-91, than another 1982 or 2008
We were heading into recession at the end of 2019? Or just because COVID happened?
The indicators around manufacturing output and similar were blinking as early as 2018 - a big reason why Powell started cutting rates, along with rising WH pressure heading into an election year, to get ahead of it
That said, a mid-to-late 2020 recession in a no-COVID scenario is probably more of a 2001 (pre-9/11) type contraction, maybe a smidge worse if short of 1990-91, than another 1982 or 2008