2028 at the earliest, but we need Riggs and Earls seat to accomplish that. We also have to take out 2 GOP incumbent Justices in 2028, which is an uphill battle to say the least.
Newby is at mandatory retirement age by 2028 -- so his seat will probably be open. The NC GOP legislature forced through a law extending mandatory retirement age for justices so that Newby wouldn't be forced to retire (and have Gov Stein appoint a replacement) in 2026 or 2027.
2028. ThatтАЩs when Paul Newby, Tamara Barringer and nepo baby Berger Jr (son of NC state Senate leader Phil Berger) are up for re-election. Only need to flip 2 of them to score a majority.
But we HAVE to retain Riggs and Earls in order to get that opportunity. We really need fair state and congressional maps in place (aka the GOP legislature majority wiped out) before the 2030 census.
Our luck is simply bad, 2030 could be a democratic midterm so we'd need to pass some fair redistricting legislation before that by gutting the filibuster. We always have odds stacked against us due to structural flaws.
I would love to see a Dem federal trifecta after 2028 eliminating the filibuster and imposing a voting rights act that implements an independent redistricting process for each state (and requires them use it for state legislature lines). But I think the more realistic scenario for 2028 is a Dem president with a R controlled Senate and Dem House.
Sadly even if Democrats tried to do that with a trifecta, the Trump Supremes will almost certainly block it. They know fair districts for the country = they canтАЩt win power.
Which year can we flip the court and gerrymander the state?
2028 at the earliest, but we need Riggs and Earls seat to accomplish that. We also have to take out 2 GOP incumbent Justices in 2028, which is an uphill battle to say the least.
Newby is at mandatory retirement age by 2028 -- so his seat will probably be open. The NC GOP legislature forced through a law extending mandatory retirement age for justices so that Newby wouldn't be forced to retire (and have Gov Stein appoint a replacement) in 2026 or 2027.
2028. ThatтАЩs when Paul Newby, Tamara Barringer and nepo baby Berger Jr (son of NC state Senate leader Phil Berger) are up for re-election. Only need to flip 2 of them to score a majority.
But we HAVE to retain Riggs and Earls in order to get that opportunity. We really need fair state and congressional maps in place (aka the GOP legislature majority wiped out) before the 2030 census.
Our luck is simply bad, 2030 could be a democratic midterm so we'd need to pass some fair redistricting legislation before that by gutting the filibuster. We always have odds stacked against us due to structural flaws.
I would love to see a Dem federal trifecta after 2028 eliminating the filibuster and imposing a voting rights act that implements an independent redistricting process for each state (and requires them use it for state legislature lines). But I think the more realistic scenario for 2028 is a Dem president with a R controlled Senate and Dem House.
Sadly even if Democrats tried to do that with a trifecta, the Trump Supremes will almost certainly block it. They know fair districts for the country = they canтАЩt win power.