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PollJunkie's avatar

Dems unpopularity is more due to liberal dissatisfaction with their own party in contrast to Republicans enjoying the chainsaw wielded by House Reps if you see the breakdowns.

What really matters is the generic ballot where we are ahead and the midterms are a referendum on the president not the opposition party as multiple pundits point out. Republicans really think that this was landslide and are still high on the "vibe shift" narrative. Bush had a permanent conservative coalition and Obama had an upcoming Democratic majority. How did that turn out? We also have the optimized and reliable high propensity electorate for midterms as seen in 2018 and 2022 i.e the college educated, wealthier, older and more tuned in voters.

https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26polls generic ballot average

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