I have no doubt that it's competitive but I also think the modeling of polls in Nebraska has to be nearly impossible given that it's been so long since they've had a competitive race. I hope to be wrong but my fear is that this race will track like both of the last two Oklahoma Governor races, where "tied" polls quickly yielded to double-digit Republican wins.
I have no doubt that it's competitive but I also think the modeling of polls in Nebraska has to be nearly impossible given that it's been so long since they've had a competitive race. I hope to be wrong but my fear is that this race will track like both of the last two Oklahoma Governor races, where "tied" polls quickly yielded to double-digit Republican wins.
Why are you choosing those races to compare it to? Aside from them being red states they really don’t have much in common. Not to mention you’re comparing a federal election to a state election, and a race with no Dem to a traditional two party race.
I mean, if you’re going to do that, then why wouldn’t you compare it to a neighboring state, KS? The last two Governor races in KS showed competitive races which weren’t too far off from the final result, with the Dem winning of course. Yes, in 2022 the final result was closer than the final polls showed, but not so much that it pointed to a polling failure.
Editing to add that the Osborne campaign has also released polls showing Presidential and Sen Special numbers that are right where one would expect. If there is a fundamental polling error, which I don’t deny is possible, then it is specific to this race and the most likely explanation would be the presence of an Independent instead of a Dem, not any modeling issue due to a lack of recent competitive races.
You did dance around one good point in that Oklahoma and Nebraska might not be the best comparisons in terms of poll modeling because there are so many more former Democrats in Oklahoma compared to Nebraska whose current partisan allegiance would probably be harder for pollsters to pin down.
Kansas seems like a more natural comparison on the surface but since there have been multiple close races in the state in the last decade, pollsters' modeling is undoubtedly more refined. Kansas polling was way off in 2014 for the same reason I have my doubts as Nebraska polling in 2024....it'd been forever since the last close race there and the modeling was out of date. Since then, there have been two close gubernatorial races and a Senate seat on the periphery of competitiveness in 2020. Pollsters have been in the field there and have been able to update their models. When was the last time the same thing happened in Nebraska? Maybe 2012 when they dusted off Bob Kerrey and ran him again. And as you said, the polling of an independent candidate throws up even more ambiguity.
All speculation of course. I could be wrong. I hope I am. I'm not even plugged onto what I assume is a nagging question of who Osborn intends to caucus with. If it's the Democrats, I gotta figure that will cost him in the end.
NE-2 has been competitive for a decade and the polling has been reasonably close there. Sure, it’s much less rural than the rest of state, but data and experience from there can still be extrapolated. There’s always the possibility that the polls are off, but considering the response from the Fisher team and the numbers from other races that easily pass the sniff test and it seems like you’re having to dig pretty hard to support pre conceived notions in spite of all the data.
Clearly the Fischer campaign is scrambling around for messaging (imo they will resort to good old fashioned race baiting; the tried and true Republican tactic since Nixon)
I’d be inclined to agree were it not for available polling showing Ricketts winning by about the margin you’d expect a GOP Senator to, on same tests as Osborn beating Fischer. So something specific to Osborn is happening where he’s winning over Ricketts voters.
I have no doubt that it's competitive but I also think the modeling of polls in Nebraska has to be nearly impossible given that it's been so long since they've had a competitive race. I hope to be wrong but my fear is that this race will track like both of the last two Oklahoma Governor races, where "tied" polls quickly yielded to double-digit Republican wins.
Why are you choosing those races to compare it to? Aside from them being red states they really don’t have much in common. Not to mention you’re comparing a federal election to a state election, and a race with no Dem to a traditional two party race.
I mean, if you’re going to do that, then why wouldn’t you compare it to a neighboring state, KS? The last two Governor races in KS showed competitive races which weren’t too far off from the final result, with the Dem winning of course. Yes, in 2022 the final result was closer than the final polls showed, but not so much that it pointed to a polling failure.
Editing to add that the Osborne campaign has also released polls showing Presidential and Sen Special numbers that are right where one would expect. If there is a fundamental polling error, which I don’t deny is possible, then it is specific to this race and the most likely explanation would be the presence of an Independent instead of a Dem, not any modeling issue due to a lack of recent competitive races.
You did dance around one good point in that Oklahoma and Nebraska might not be the best comparisons in terms of poll modeling because there are so many more former Democrats in Oklahoma compared to Nebraska whose current partisan allegiance would probably be harder for pollsters to pin down.
Kansas seems like a more natural comparison on the surface but since there have been multiple close races in the state in the last decade, pollsters' modeling is undoubtedly more refined. Kansas polling was way off in 2014 for the same reason I have my doubts as Nebraska polling in 2024....it'd been forever since the last close race there and the modeling was out of date. Since then, there have been two close gubernatorial races and a Senate seat on the periphery of competitiveness in 2020. Pollsters have been in the field there and have been able to update their models. When was the last time the same thing happened in Nebraska? Maybe 2012 when they dusted off Bob Kerrey and ran him again. And as you said, the polling of an independent candidate throws up even more ambiguity.
All speculation of course. I could be wrong. I hope I am. I'm not even plugged onto what I assume is a nagging question of who Osborn intends to caucus with. If it's the Democrats, I gotta figure that will cost him in the end.
FWIW, Nebraska's tied for the third-longest active streak of one party hitting at least 55% in every partisan statewide presidential-year race:
1) NY 1992 pres+sen
2) ID 1996 pres
3) NE 2000 sen, TN 2000 pres
NE-2 has been competitive for a decade and the polling has been reasonably close there. Sure, it’s much less rural than the rest of state, but data and experience from there can still be extrapolated. There’s always the possibility that the polls are off, but considering the response from the Fisher team and the numbers from other races that easily pass the sniff test and it seems like you’re having to dig pretty hard to support pre conceived notions in spite of all the data.
Clearly the Fischer campaign is scrambling around for messaging (imo they will resort to good old fashioned race baiting; the tried and true Republican tactic since Nixon)
Since Goldwater.
I’d be inclined to agree were it not for available polling showing Ricketts winning by about the margin you’d expect a GOP Senator to, on same tests as Osborn beating Fischer. So something specific to Osborn is happening where he’s winning over Ricketts voters.
Not that I think Osborn is going to win, mind
Misogyny might be good for a few critical percent in play here