Dan Osborn should basically attack the 2-party system and call his hypothetical upset a warning shot to its power. Both parties screwed up on the border etc would be a great resonating message!!
He's gone all-in on the confounding colors: giving Fischer blue in the poll tweet, tweeting images of his campaign's red shirts, press releases in red letterhead, etc.
He uses red because the state religion is Nebraska Cornhuskers football. His last name also probably helps a lot on a subconscious level because the Huskers' all-time most successful and popular coach (who later represented the western part of the state in Congress) was Tom Osborne. Nebraskans are primed to like a guy named Osborn who uses that shade of red.
Regardless of whether it's a happy coincidence or a convenient excuse, it's solidly on the path I'd prescribe if I were advising him. He only actively started tying Fischer to blue in mid-August, and this is the most explicitly he's done it; the last few weeks are also the most actively he's promoted his red. He needs a ton of Ricketts voters, and this is one of the key ways to get them.
Imagine if he alone ends up determining who controls the Senate. Angus King tried to avoid picking a side and learned immediately that you don't get to actually do much if you aren't part of a caucus. If he's elected, I think he probably caucuses with the majority party of his state but maintains a moderate image, just like King.
Not hard to imagine as right now it looks it’s come down to him and Brown winning. If Harris wins and we win the House, he’d be better off caucusing with Dems with the easy expiration of, “I’d rather work with the people in power so I can get bills passed.”
I’d be extremely disappointed if he won and chose to caucus with Republicans. If he was going to do that, then why bother running against a real Republican? Does the Senate have discharge petitions where he could caucus with the GOP but then helps us get bills or nominations to the floor? He could also switch caucuses all willy nilly whenever he wanted a certain piece of legislation to the floor but that would be so irritating procedurally.
I think this is a much more likely GOP incumbent defeat that Florida. As much as DM-P is doing well, winning over all the antivax baby boomers who've moved there since 2020 seems unlikely, even with polls.
New internal poll of Nebraska Senate-A by SurveyUSA on behalf of the Dan Osborn campaign:
Osborn (I) 50%, Fischer (R-inc) 44%.
Would love him to pull it off. If I was him, I'd play it like, "I'll wait to see whichever party is in the majority to see who I'll caucus with".
💙🇺🇲
Survey USA is #15 on the 538 Pollster ratings; legitimate
Dan Osborn should basically attack the 2-party system and call his hypothetical upset a warning shot to its power. Both parties screwed up on the border etc would be a great resonating message!!
I'm not sure any changes in messaging is a smart strategy; I think the Fischer campaign will go nuclear now; bordering on unhinged
He's gone all-in on the confounding colors: giving Fischer blue in the poll tweet, tweeting images of his campaign's red shirts, press releases in red letterhead, etc.
https://x.com/OsbornForSenate/status/1846186684137841021
He uses red because the state religion is Nebraska Cornhuskers football. His last name also probably helps a lot on a subconscious level because the Huskers' all-time most successful and popular coach (who later represented the western part of the state in Congress) was Tom Osborne. Nebraskans are primed to like a guy named Osborn who uses that shade of red.
When I first heard his name as a candidate for a Senate race in Nebraska, I assumed he was related to Tom Osborne.
Same lol
Regardless of whether it's a happy coincidence or a convenient excuse, it's solidly on the path I'd prescribe if I were advising him. He only actively started tying Fischer to blue in mid-August, and this is the most explicitly he's done it; the last few weeks are also the most actively he's promoted his red. He needs a ton of Ricketts voters, and this is one of the key ways to get them.
Imagine if he alone ends up determining who controls the Senate. Angus King tried to avoid picking a side and learned immediately that you don't get to actually do much if you aren't part of a caucus. If he's elected, I think he probably caucuses with the majority party of his state but maintains a moderate image, just like King.
Getting a Lisa Murkowski clone from Nebraska would be a win in my book.
Not hard to imagine as right now it looks it’s come down to him and Brown winning. If Harris wins and we win the House, he’d be better off caucusing with Dems with the easy expiration of, “I’d rather work with the people in power so I can get bills passed.”
I’d be extremely disappointed if he won and chose to caucus with Republicans. If he was going to do that, then why bother running against a real Republican? Does the Senate have discharge petitions where he could caucus with the GOP but then helps us get bills or nominations to the floor? He could also switch caucuses all willy nilly whenever he wanted a certain piece of legislation to the floor but that would be so irritating procedurally.
Cue the every increasingly desperate and xenophobic ads from the Fischer campaign
I think this is a much more likely GOP incumbent defeat that Florida. As much as DM-P is doing well, winning over all the antivax baby boomers who've moved there since 2020 seems unlikely, even with polls.
We’re doing exactly how I’d expect for FL-Sen 2024. Better than 2022 but worse than 2018.
2024>2022 AND Rubio>Scott