Trump has paused the sweeping reciprocal tariffs the U.S. imposed on dozens of countries this week… Economists said the tariffs could cause a severe global recession, and major investors warned of even worse, up to a possible "economic nuclear winter."
Trump has paused the sweeping reciprocal tariffs the U.S. imposed on dozens of countries this week… Economists said the tariffs could cause a severe global recession, and major investors warned of even worse, up to a possible "economic nuclear winter."
We don’t know yet if a recession is set to hit. That’s all speculative at this point. The numbers of jobs added per month since this year began is an indication there’s still growth even if volatile.
The pullback or pausing may make a temporary slowdown to the economy. However, because they’ve been instituted for a short period of time, the economy can potentially pick up overtime depending on the dynamics happening.
A 60bps rise in 10 year yields despite a stock market sell off forced their hands. Bessent is a hack but he’s not a stupid one (ironically he’s a Soros protege - and was around for Black Wednesday in 1992). This is almost certainly him asserting his authority over Navarro and Lutnick.
If Navarro gets fired soon the market probably rallies on that news alone lol
Axios article says it's a 90 day pause instead of cancelled outright. Question is what happens in three months? Does it get delayed again, formally cancelled, or implement anyway.
Things are chaotic enough that all three are plausible.
Mix or delay and implementation on a country level would be my guess, especially if people like Bessent can convince Trump he’s building a grand anti-China trade coalition by negotiating
apparently that’s how Bessent broke through to him - emphasized a trade war with China as politically popular and the rest of it not and turned the Orange Don’s attention entirely on China
My point was more: we do not really know. Policy decisions are entirely opaque right now. Decisions are made haphazardly and whether or not there is follow through is unknowable by anyone, arguably even by insiders.
Only one week removed from "Liberation Day". It's kind of like if on July 11, 1776, George Washington had said "Fuck it! We're going back to the Brits!"
"I'm writing to the White House to demand who knew in advance that the President was going to, once again, flip flop on tariffs. And are people cashing in? There is just all too much opportunity for people in the White House and the administration to be insider trading"
Rep. Mike Levin:
Trump posts THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!—then caves on tariffs hours later. Market surges. Middle-class investors who sold during the chaos lose big. Insiders win again. This is market manipulation to help his base profit. How is this legal or OK?
When you have Ben Shapiro, Rand Paul and even one of Trump’s staunchest supporters on Wall Street, Bill Ackman, being critical of Trump’s original tariff plan, you know he’s cornered and has nowhere to go except cave in.
I’m referring to Treasuries. Spiking 10y yields despite a weak stock market was about as strong a vote of no confidence as you can get from financial markets
TRUMP CAVES!
Trump has paused the sweeping reciprocal tariffs the U.S. imposed on dozens of countries this week… Economists said the tariffs could cause a severe global recession, and major investors warned of even worse, up to a possible "economic nuclear winter."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2025-04-08/trump-tariffs-stock-market-updates?srnd=homepage-americas
https://www.axios.com/2025/04/09/trump-tariffs-pause-china-stocks-recession
I wonder how this will influence the markets and upcoming elections? Too early to tell, of course.
(Meanwhile, someone ought to reassign this "stable genius" to a task better suited to his talents: Shoveling out the stables!)
is 130% tariff on China and a 10% global tariff caving? Seems like the markets are overreacting here.
Considering the rates to be levied on Vietnam and other major import partners absolutely
A recession is coming regardless, but those tariff rates in place for months would've resulted in a global depression.
We don’t know yet if a recession is set to hit. That’s all speculative at this point. The numbers of jobs added per month since this year began is an indication there’s still growth even if volatile.
The pullback or pausing may make a temporary slowdown to the economy. However, because they’ve been instituted for a short period of time, the economy can potentially pick up overtime depending on the dynamics happening.
Absolutely, but as we know, markets are irrational, because they're composed of people.
A 60bps rise in 10 year yields despite a stock market sell off forced their hands. Bessent is a hack but he’s not a stupid one (ironically he’s a Soros protege - and was around for Black Wednesday in 1992). This is almost certainly him asserting his authority over Navarro and Lutnick.
If Navarro gets fired soon the market probably rallies on that news alone lol
Is this pumping and dumping or dumping and pumping?
Sell high, buy low. Especially if you’re in the know.
Axios article says it's a 90 day pause instead of cancelled outright. Question is what happens in three months? Does it get delayed again, formally cancelled, or implement anyway.
Things are chaotic enough that all three are plausible.
Mix or delay and implementation on a country level would be my guess, especially if people like Bessent can convince Trump he’s building a grand anti-China trade coalition by negotiating
Yeah, Trump needs to be convinced that he's winning.
I’d like the pressure on him to give Democrats what they want count as winning.
If that’s the case, sign me up please.
apparently that’s how Bessent broke through to him - emphasized a trade war with China as politically popular and the rest of it not and turned the Orange Don’s attention entirely on China
Forced to guess that's what I would say too.
My point was more: we do not really know. Policy decisions are entirely opaque right now. Decisions are made haphazardly and whether or not there is follow through is unknowable by anyone, arguably even by insiders.
Only one week removed from "Liberation Day". It's kind of like if on July 11, 1776, George Washington had said "Fuck it! We're going back to the Brits!"
I’d like to get a look at his stock portfolio. I don’t think he’d look so stupid.
Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA):
"I'm writing to the White House to demand who knew in advance that the President was going to, once again, flip flop on tariffs. And are people cashing in? There is just all too much opportunity for people in the White House and the administration to be insider trading"
Rep. Mike Levin:
Trump posts THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!—then caves on tariffs hours later. Market surges. Middle-class investors who sold during the chaos lose big. Insiders win again. This is market manipulation to help his base profit. How is this legal or OK?
Nixon said it wasn't illegal when the president did it. That wasn't true then, but it's the country we live in now.
When you have Ben Shapiro, Rand Paul and even one of Trump’s staunchest supporters on Wall Street, Bill Ackman, being critical of Trump’s original tariff plan, you know he’s cornered and has nowhere to go except cave in.
Setting aside all that, bond markets are undefeated
True.
You mean other than U.S. treasuries?
I’m referring to Treasuries. Spiking 10y yields despite a weak stock market was about as strong a vote of no confidence as you can get from financial markets
Oh, I didn't realize you were making a sarcastic remark.