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Bryce Moyer's avatar

Any one want to tell me how good of a candidate Males will be in CA-25? I don’t care that Ruiz won by 12, that district is yet another Hispanic district shifting hard to the right. I’m honestly shocked that the NRCC didn’t add it or CA-21 to its target list

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Jacob Smith's avatar

I can't imagine Ruiz will lose, not a single D incumbent lost a general election in 2006 or 2018, not even ones in seats won by Bush 04 or Trump 16.

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Bryce Moyer's avatar

Right, but do we know how good of an opponent Males is? Because while that ‘06 and ‘18 stat is true, I’ve watched too much sports to say that’s a pattern that will hold forever.

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sacman701's avatar

It swung hard right in 2024, but I wouldn't assume that this was an ongoing or even permanent one-time shift. Trump's approvals among Latinos are terrible, considerably worse than his overall approvals.

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Brad Warren's avatar

Maybe I'm smoking hopium, but it's hard to see the "Trump coalition" staying unified post-Trump. Unless a seamless replacement comes along (which seems unlikely; autocrats absolutely HATE the idea of passing their torch to a successor), I think a lot of MAGA cult voters will bow out of political participation, and at least some of Trump's softer support—the "I never thought the leopard would eat MY face!" types—will swing back toward Democrats.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Some autocrats love to pass on power to their children. Trump won't, because he's a narcissist who doesn't appear to really like his children.

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Bryce Moyer's avatar

Right, but do we know how good of an opponent Males will be? Because if he’s stronger than Ruiz’s last opponent, we could end up with a dogfight regardless.

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sacman701's avatar

I don't see a city councilman from a small town as much of a threat. If he were a popular countywide officeholder it might be different, although 2026 is shaping up as a very bad environment for the GOP.

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