For a true international downballot contest, if reports from the Vatican are indeed as dire as they sound we may have a Papal Conclave in the next month or so
For a true international downballot contest, if reports from the Vatican are indeed as dire as they sound we may have a Papal Conclave in the next month or so
I hope Francis can overcome this and hold on through 2025. Currently 79% of the Cardinal electors (those under 80 years old) were appointed by him (110 total); it takes 2/3rds to get a new Pope.
Here's where it gets tricky. The Vatican rules cap the number of electors at 120, but currently there are 138. Obviously, some will turn 80 this year and lose their eligibility, but even by 12/31, they'll still have 125 eligible. I don't know how they would handle it if they're over 120 at the time they need to vote.
2/3rds of the current 138 eligible is 92--still enough Francis Cardinals alone to elect a new person. If Francis lives to July 4th, there will be 3 fewer Francis Cardinals and, importantly, 3 fewer Benedict Cardinals. Even better, if he holds on to October 15th, there will be two more Francis Cardinals who hit 80, but also 1 each from the John Paul and Benedict groups. At that time, assuming no other resignations or deaths or a consistory, the Francis group would be at 105, or 82% of the 128 remaining voting members.
More evidence that John Paul was a Reagan-era conservative--the last of his Cardinals to reach 80 will do it in 2032--27 years after JPII died.
The demise of Mr Ratzinger’s influence on the College of Cardinals cannot come soon enough!
PS. Surely you mean Pope John Paul II? The first John Paul (definitely the better John Paul) was pope only for 33 days; I don’t think he had time to appoint many cardinals.
Well, given that any Cardinal that might have been appointed by JPI (there were none, as you note) would be ineligible to vote already, yes, I definitely meant JPII.
The closer the number of eligibles gets to 120, yes, this is likely. I don't know if 18 of them would give up the chance to take part if the conclave is soon.
I'm sure that Trump and his inner circle will find some way to influence a Conclave, if there is one while he's still POTUS, in favor of an overtly pro-Trump pontiff (or at least a traditional Catholic conservative in the mold of someone like Benedict XVI, if a pontiff that isn't going to do Trump's bidding on issues like immigration and wear a MAGA hat regularly can't be found or elected). Pretty much any Pope who gets elected after Francis is going to be, like Francis and everyone before him, rabidly anti-abortion, unfortunately.
Papal conclaves are notoriously difficult to influence because of their extremely secretive nature, as well as the fact that there aren't really any public campaigns (or even official candidates) for Pope. The last five Conclaves took place with JFK, Carter, Carter, GWB, and Obama, respectively, as U.S. President.
The institutional taboo against too publicly coveting the papacy protects against such - there’s the old saying “he who enters as Pope leaves a cardinal” for a reason
For a true international downballot contest, if reports from the Vatican are indeed as dire as they sound we may have a Papal Conclave in the next month or so
Perhaps that could inspire a movie. We could call it "Conclave" – put Ralph Fiennes in the starring role and even throw in John Lithgow.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt20215234/?ref_=fn_all_ttl_1
Also worth a watch is "The Two Popes" starring Anthony Hopkins and Jonathan Pryce.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8404614/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0_tt_7_nm_1_in_0_q_two%2520popes
Conclave was very good, both on shot composition and acting, even if the ending left me a little baffled
I hope Francis can overcome this and hold on through 2025. Currently 79% of the Cardinal electors (those under 80 years old) were appointed by him (110 total); it takes 2/3rds to get a new Pope.
Here's where it gets tricky. The Vatican rules cap the number of electors at 120, but currently there are 138. Obviously, some will turn 80 this year and lose their eligibility, but even by 12/31, they'll still have 125 eligible. I don't know how they would handle it if they're over 120 at the time they need to vote.
2/3rds of the current 138 eligible is 92--still enough Francis Cardinals alone to elect a new person. If Francis lives to July 4th, there will be 3 fewer Francis Cardinals and, importantly, 3 fewer Benedict Cardinals. Even better, if he holds on to October 15th, there will be two more Francis Cardinals who hit 80, but also 1 each from the John Paul and Benedict groups. At that time, assuming no other resignations or deaths or a consistory, the Francis group would be at 105, or 82% of the 128 remaining voting members.
More evidence that John Paul was a Reagan-era conservative--the last of his Cardinals to reach 80 will do it in 2032--27 years after JPII died.
The demise of Mr Ratzinger’s influence on the College of Cardinals cannot come soon enough!
PS. Surely you mean Pope John Paul II? The first John Paul (definitely the better John Paul) was pope only for 33 days; I don’t think he had time to appoint many cardinals.
Well, given that any Cardinal that might have been appointed by JPI (there were none, as you note) would be ineligible to vote already, yes, I definitely meant JPII.
JP I was the William Henry Harrison of the papacy.
Except JP II was no John Tyler. Except in eyes of the far right.
Also some cardinals will not be able to travel to Rome for a potential conclave.
The closer the number of eligibles gets to 120, yes, this is likely. I don't know if 18 of them would give up the chance to take part if the conclave is soon.
I'm sure that Trump and his inner circle will find some way to influence a Conclave, if there is one while he's still POTUS, in favor of an overtly pro-Trump pontiff (or at least a traditional Catholic conservative in the mold of someone like Benedict XVI, if a pontiff that isn't going to do Trump's bidding on issues like immigration and wear a MAGA hat regularly can't be found or elected). Pretty much any Pope who gets elected after Francis is going to be, like Francis and everyone before him, rabidly anti-abortion, unfortunately.
Papal conclaves are notoriously difficult to influence because of their extremely secretive nature, as well as the fact that there aren't really any public campaigns (or even official candidates) for Pope. The last five Conclaves took place with JFK, Carter, Carter, GWB, and Obama, respectively, as U.S. President.
The institutional taboo against too publicly coveting the papacy protects against such - there’s the old saying “he who enters as Pope leaves a cardinal” for a reason
Since the papacy has a global constituency, wouldn't this be an upballot contest?
Well, ever since the Reformation, Lutherans and many other Protestants have insisted on seeing the Vatican and the Papacy as "downballot".