Their last poll was Trump +1. It seems like she's picked up, on average around 2.5 points since the debate if you're comparing a pollsters most recent poll to their previous poll.
Yeah, different pollsters special sauce yields different results to the same data based on expected turnout, which is a huge unknown. Movement within the same polling outfits are a great way of measuring movement in the electorate, perhaps moreso than polling averages.
Crosstab fun: Harris +12 among Indies, +91 among Dems, -89 among Rs, and yet +2 overall. I don't see them reporting their partisan distribution, but a bit of messing around with least squares indicates that it's about R+1, something like 41 D, 42 R, 17 I.
Interestingly, Harris and Trump are tied on the issue of taxes. 49-49. If there was one issue I expected republicans to poll better on by default, it'd be taxes.
No, it definitely is not game, set, match for a taxes issue. The issues that if Democrats tie Republicans on in 2024 that are game, set, match are 2: immigration and/or the economy.
The economy is the one Republicans do better than. Increasing taxes on the rich and not everyone else is generally popular, and Democrats have adopted that position in messaging the last few years.
My recollection is that republicans have consistently won on taxes. People like low taxes and historically they have been more willing to trust "lower taxes for everyone" than they are "lower taxes for most of us, higher taxes for the rich" тАФ it's why republican messaging is so heavy on painting every tax-the-rich policy into a "slippery slope of taxes on YOU."
If tax the rich but not everyone else is actually starting to win through as a message versus the historical trend then I'd consider that a big win for us in the long term.
Fox Poll has Harris up 50-48: https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-tops-trump-two-points
Both she and Walz have tied faves/unfaves. Meanwhile, Vance is at 38/50.
Their last poll was Trump +1. It seems like she's picked up, on average around 2.5 points since the debate if you're comparing a pollsters most recent poll to their previous poll.
Yeah, different pollsters special sauce yields different results to the same data based on expected turnout, which is a huge unknown. Movement within the same polling outfits are a great way of measuring movement in the electorate, perhaps moreso than polling averages.
Crosstab fun: Harris +12 among Indies, +91 among Dems, -89 among Rs, and yet +2 overall. I don't see them reporting their partisan distribution, but a bit of messing around with least squares indicates that it's about R+1, something like 41 D, 42 R, 17 I.
And now I read that the sample is 42, 43, 15. R +1 confirmed.
Interestingly, Harris and Trump are tied on the issue of taxes. 49-49. If there was one issue I expected republicans to poll better on by default, it'd be taxes.
If the Democratic candidate ties on that 1 issue; it's game, set, match
No, it definitely is not game, set, match for a taxes issue. The issues that if Democrats tie Republicans on in 2024 that are game, set, match are 2: immigration and/or the economy.
you have completely misunderstood my post
The economy is the one Republicans do better than. Increasing taxes on the rich and not everyone else is generally popular, and Democrats have adopted that position in messaging the last few years.
Haven't the Republicans been more trusted on taxation generally since the days of Reagan? If not, when did that change?
My recollection is that republicans have consistently won on taxes. People like low taxes and historically they have been more willing to trust "lower taxes for everyone" than they are "lower taxes for most of us, higher taxes for the rich" тАФ it's why republican messaging is so heavy on painting every tax-the-rich policy into a "slippery slope of taxes on YOU."
If tax the rich but not everyone else is actually starting to win through as a message versus the historical trend then I'd consider that a big win for us in the long term.