That's interesting analysis and worth the consideration of everyone who frequents this site, but it's hardly "proof":
"In the hypothetical scenario where Jones didn’t run and some of his supporters stayed home, Burns would have needed to win an even larger share of Jones’s remaining voters in order to net 3,563 votes. Let’s dive into the math. If only 90 percent of Jones’s supporters had turned out (9,339 voters), Burns would have needed to win them 6,451 to 2,888 (69 percent to 31 percent)."
We're talking about very small numbers of people. Netting 3,563 votes is easily what might have happened had the Libertarian not taken any votes.
But there's no "proof" that Burns, Rehberg or Rosendale would've easily secured the 3,563 votes had the Libertarian dropped out. They could've just sat it out. So it's hard to say if these Libertarian voters would've voted for Burns by default or had sat it out completely but what is proof is that Tester's campaign always knew it was about voter turnout and not relying on a third party candidate to tip the race in his favor as his Hail Mary to win elections.
Glad you ask because I posted a diary about this last year where 538’s Nathaniel Radich did the math on the Libertarian candidate’s impact in all three of Tester’s races. He proves that even if the GOP candidate won the majority of Libertarian voters that still wouldn’t have been enough for Burns, Rehberg or Rosendale to beat Tester https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/11/2163133/-MT-Sen-538-Does-The-Math-Explaining-Why-The-MT-GOP-s-Plan-To-Screw-Sen-Tester-D-Might-Be-A-Bust
That's interesting analysis and worth the consideration of everyone who frequents this site, but it's hardly "proof":
"In the hypothetical scenario where Jones didn’t run and some of his supporters stayed home, Burns would have needed to win an even larger share of Jones’s remaining voters in order to net 3,563 votes. Let’s dive into the math. If only 90 percent of Jones’s supporters had turned out (9,339 voters), Burns would have needed to win them 6,451 to 2,888 (69 percent to 31 percent)."
We're talking about very small numbers of people. Netting 3,563 votes is easily what might have happened had the Libertarian not taken any votes.
But there's no "proof" that Burns, Rehberg or Rosendale would've easily secured the 3,563 votes had the Libertarian dropped out. They could've just sat it out. So it's hard to say if these Libertarian voters would've voted for Burns by default or had sat it out completely but what is proof is that Tester's campaign always knew it was about voter turnout and not relying on a third party candidate to tip the race in his favor as his Hail Mary to win elections.
That's a very different point. No, nothing that didn't happen can be proven 100%. So why did you try to claim above that it was?