Here are my updated crude 31- and 14-day polling averages. I exclude GOP troll polls (Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc), any polls released by partisan organizations, and some with really sketchy methods such as ActiVote. For the 14-day state averages, the number of polls is in parentheses.
AZ: 31-day T+1.2, 14-day T+0.8 (4)
GA: 31-day T+0.7, 14-day T+2.0 (5)
MI: 31-day H+1.9, 14-day H+2.0 (6)
NV: 31-day H+1.1, 14-day T+0.5 (2)
NC: 31-day T+0.1, 14-day H+0.3 (6)
PA: 31-day H+1.0, 14-day H+1.5 (6)
WI: 31-day H+3.3, 14-day H+1.8 (5)
US: 31-day H+3.4, 14-day H+3.3
Since the last time I ran this, Harris has gained in the 14-day national average but not in the swing states. This may in part be a function of which outfits are polling in the swing states relative to the nation. I don't see any evidence that Harris is actually slipping in Wisconsin, it's just a different group of polls than in the 31-day average. Most of the national polls since the debate show Harris up 4 or more.
Here are my updated crude 31- and 14-day polling averages. I exclude GOP troll polls (Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc), any polls released by partisan organizations, and some with really sketchy methods such as ActiVote. For the 14-day state averages, the number of polls is in parentheses.
AZ: 31-day T+1.2, 14-day T+0.8 (4)
GA: 31-day T+0.7, 14-day T+2.0 (5)
MI: 31-day H+1.9, 14-day H+2.0 (6)
NV: 31-day H+1.1, 14-day T+0.5 (2)
NC: 31-day T+0.1, 14-day H+0.3 (6)
PA: 31-day H+1.0, 14-day H+1.5 (6)
WI: 31-day H+3.3, 14-day H+1.8 (5)
US: 31-day H+3.4, 14-day H+3.3
Since the last time I ran this, Harris has gained in the 14-day national average but not in the swing states. This may in part be a function of which outfits are polling in the swing states relative to the nation. I don't see any evidence that Harris is actually slipping in Wisconsin, it's just a different group of polls than in the 31-day average. Most of the national polls since the debate show Harris up 4 or more.