I feel a little cheap waiting till Election Eve to make a prediction, but am thinking Harris wins 286-252. Was actually feeling somewhat pessimistic until recently. The MSG rally seems to have marked a momentum shift, though, and surveys from top-tier pollsters suggest a Harris win. Ranking the seven battlegrounds from best for Harris to…
I feel a little cheap waiting till Election Eve to make a prediction, but am thinking Harris wins 286-252. Was actually feeling somewhat pessimistic until recently. The MSG rally seems to have marked a momentum shift, though, and surveys from top-tier pollsters suggest a Harris win. Ranking the seven battlegrounds from best for Harris to worst:
Michigan (H +3.5): Recent elections have established the Democratic baseline to be higher here than other swing states. Harris will likely build on Biden's margins in blue anchor counties (Wayne, Oakland, Washtenaw, Ingham, and Kalamazoo) while closing the gap in vote-rich Republican counties like Ottawa and Livingston. I think I read that Detroit City officials also expect higher turnout than 2020, which would be huge. These factors combined should more than balance against any rightward shift among rural counties.
Pennsylvania (H +2.5): The trends in Michigan also apply here, with Harris poised to outperform Biden in Allegheny and the Philly collar counties, while winning gains in the GOP's south central strongholds (Lancaster, York, and Cumberland). District-level polling also shows Harris holding steady in the Lehigh Valley, which was one of the few areas where conventional wisdom suggested weakness relative to Biden. My main worry is whether she can hold steady in Philly, where Biden performed worse than any Dem nominee since John Kerry. Hispanic neighborhoods in North Philly pushed the city right in 2020; hopefully the MSG rally will rekindle awareness of Trump's racism and halt or reverse any further movement. Would be great if we can at least replicate Philly's 470,000 vote margin from four years ago.
Georgia (H +1): Georgia could emerge as the surprise tipping point state this year. 2022 suggested Atlanta Metro has shifted even further left since 2020, along with Republican Metro counties including Forsyth, Cherokee, Fayette, and Paulding. Fayette should flip blue tomorrow if trends hold steady. Harris should also crack 60% in vote-rich Gwinnett, Cobb, and Henry, with the latter in particular primed for big movement. This should more than balance against any further erosion in the rurals. One potential concern is turnout in Dem-leaning outer-state counties like Chatham, Richmond, and Bibb, all of which underperformed in early voting relative to the Metro. They'll all need to catch up tomorrow for Harris to feel better.
Wisconsin (H +0.7): Wisconsin could easily swap places with Georgia, but I wouldn't be surprised if it says true to form with a <1% margin for the winner. Harris should push 80% in Dane and could very well become the first Dem to exceed 70% in Milwaukee as its suburbs shift left. She should be in solid shape as long as trends in Waukesha and Ozaukee hold steady. The relatively exurban Washington remains stubbornly crimson.
Nevada (T +0.5): Honestly not feeling good about our chances here. If the Republican EV lead was the only sore point, I'd feel better given the surge in left-leaning NPAs. That said, the trends and fundamentals are arguably worse for us here than any other battleground. The state's shifted right relative to the rest of America every cycle since 2008, and we don't have a strong core of Black voters or emerging core of educated suburbanites to fall back on. Nevada's also extremely sensitive to economic volatility, so we could see more residual angst over inflation and the COVID recession compared to other battlegrounds.
North Carolina (T +1): I don't have as strong an understanding of North Carolina, so I have less to work with here. But they've very reliably stuck with their Lucy-and-the-football routine since 2008, so wouldn't be surprised if that continues this year, too. Mecklenburg needs to properly turn out for us to have a chance. I'll be happy if we can hold NC-01 and Attorney General.
Arizona (T +1.5): As with NC, I don't have a strong grasp of on-the-ground developments, but Arizona appears to be the lone swing state where migration patterns have worked against us, along with potential greater sensitivity to developments at the border. The polling, to the extent it can be trusted, is also worse here than the other battlegrounds. Here's hoping strength with Latinos and gains in the Phoenix suburbs come through for us.
The obvious qualification to all of this is that we're flying blind compared to previous cycles. Either candidate could sweep all seven states, or (god forbid) we could get a 2000 redux where the tipping point state hinges on a handful of ballots. If Harris wins, we'll likely see unprecedented strength among women voters and a massacre in the suburbs. If Trump wins, the narrative could emphasize some combination of gains among POCs, expansion of rural/WWC margins, and lesser turnout in cities. We'll get our answers in 48 hours!
I still am puzzled and now even more so how AZ would go big for Ruben, and close t win with abortion rights also on the ballot. Seems something is not computing and based on Selzer poll, seems one of those results is not the same as the other two.
I feel a little cheap waiting till Election Eve to make a prediction, but am thinking Harris wins 286-252. Was actually feeling somewhat pessimistic until recently. The MSG rally seems to have marked a momentum shift, though, and surveys from top-tier pollsters suggest a Harris win. Ranking the seven battlegrounds from best for Harris to worst:
Michigan (H +3.5): Recent elections have established the Democratic baseline to be higher here than other swing states. Harris will likely build on Biden's margins in blue anchor counties (Wayne, Oakland, Washtenaw, Ingham, and Kalamazoo) while closing the gap in vote-rich Republican counties like Ottawa and Livingston. I think I read that Detroit City officials also expect higher turnout than 2020, which would be huge. These factors combined should more than balance against any rightward shift among rural counties.
Pennsylvania (H +2.5): The trends in Michigan also apply here, with Harris poised to outperform Biden in Allegheny and the Philly collar counties, while winning gains in the GOP's south central strongholds (Lancaster, York, and Cumberland). District-level polling also shows Harris holding steady in the Lehigh Valley, which was one of the few areas where conventional wisdom suggested weakness relative to Biden. My main worry is whether she can hold steady in Philly, where Biden performed worse than any Dem nominee since John Kerry. Hispanic neighborhoods in North Philly pushed the city right in 2020; hopefully the MSG rally will rekindle awareness of Trump's racism and halt or reverse any further movement. Would be great if we can at least replicate Philly's 470,000 vote margin from four years ago.
Georgia (H +1): Georgia could emerge as the surprise tipping point state this year. 2022 suggested Atlanta Metro has shifted even further left since 2020, along with Republican Metro counties including Forsyth, Cherokee, Fayette, and Paulding. Fayette should flip blue tomorrow if trends hold steady. Harris should also crack 60% in vote-rich Gwinnett, Cobb, and Henry, with the latter in particular primed for big movement. This should more than balance against any further erosion in the rurals. One potential concern is turnout in Dem-leaning outer-state counties like Chatham, Richmond, and Bibb, all of which underperformed in early voting relative to the Metro. They'll all need to catch up tomorrow for Harris to feel better.
Wisconsin (H +0.7): Wisconsin could easily swap places with Georgia, but I wouldn't be surprised if it says true to form with a <1% margin for the winner. Harris should push 80% in Dane and could very well become the first Dem to exceed 70% in Milwaukee as its suburbs shift left. She should be in solid shape as long as trends in Waukesha and Ozaukee hold steady. The relatively exurban Washington remains stubbornly crimson.
Nevada (T +0.5): Honestly not feeling good about our chances here. If the Republican EV lead was the only sore point, I'd feel better given the surge in left-leaning NPAs. That said, the trends and fundamentals are arguably worse for us here than any other battleground. The state's shifted right relative to the rest of America every cycle since 2008, and we don't have a strong core of Black voters or emerging core of educated suburbanites to fall back on. Nevada's also extremely sensitive to economic volatility, so we could see more residual angst over inflation and the COVID recession compared to other battlegrounds.
North Carolina (T +1): I don't have as strong an understanding of North Carolina, so I have less to work with here. But they've very reliably stuck with their Lucy-and-the-football routine since 2008, so wouldn't be surprised if that continues this year, too. Mecklenburg needs to properly turn out for us to have a chance. I'll be happy if we can hold NC-01 and Attorney General.
Arizona (T +1.5): As with NC, I don't have a strong grasp of on-the-ground developments, but Arizona appears to be the lone swing state where migration patterns have worked against us, along with potential greater sensitivity to developments at the border. The polling, to the extent it can be trusted, is also worse here than the other battlegrounds. Here's hoping strength with Latinos and gains in the Phoenix suburbs come through for us.
The obvious qualification to all of this is that we're flying blind compared to previous cycles. Either candidate could sweep all seven states, or (god forbid) we could get a 2000 redux where the tipping point state hinges on a handful of ballots. If Harris wins, we'll likely see unprecedented strength among women voters and a massacre in the suburbs. If Trump wins, the narrative could emphasize some combination of gains among POCs, expansion of rural/WWC margins, and lesser turnout in cities. We'll get our answers in 48 hours!
I still am puzzled and now even more so how AZ would go big for Ruben, and close t win with abortion rights also on the ballot. Seems something is not computing and based on Selzer poll, seems one of those results is not the same as the other two.
Kari Lake is just that bad of a candidate.
She's as whiny, abrasive, and extreme as Trump but lacks his bad-boy appeal and undeserved reputation as a great businessman.