I also meant for Canadian sovereignty reasons. What has happened in relations between the US and Canada is deplorable. I don’t blame Canadians for hating us one bit.
I don't blame Canadians for hating Trump. "Us", or at least those who voted against him and don't like him (and with the "don't like" now including an increasing number of former supporters), shouldn't be blamed.
I can't imagine a scenario in which if a US state or Canadian province actually successfully passed a secession referendum, binding or not, that Washington or Ottawa would simply say "ok, that's it then, goodbye.", and simply just let them leave. Pretty sure they would be compelled to rejoin using military force, and given the disparity, would be unable to resist. Secession is a fantasy which will never happen.
You can start talking to me about the likes of MS and FL if we get an electorate like that. Too bad we won't, just have to settle for the first Demmycratic Senator in Kansas since...the freaking Great Depression??
I mean at a certain point I feel like money starts to have diminishing returns that get smaller the worse things get. No amount of money can save candidates like Ken Paxton or Michael Whatley or even Mike Rogers when gas/diesel prices are at the highest they’ve ever been at this point in the year and public opinion of the ultra wealthy is extremely unpopular in the face of rising unaffordability.
The country is pissed at Trump, and it’s a much harder and stronger disapproval than Biden’s ever was, and unlike the GOP the Democrats actually have a great slate of candidates to take advantage of the political environment. The money advantage might help prevent fringe, peripheral battlegrounds from flipping like South Carolina or Kansas. But if you’re in any of the primary battleground seats/districts, your best bet is to either leave the Republican Party or pray your opponent has a Platner sized scandal before Election Day.
NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani hasn't completed his first year in office but Anthony Scaramucci, originally critical of Mamdani as a mayoral candidate, has been impressed with his performance as Mayor. Indicates he exceeded his expectations.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders released a generic boiler plate anti-moochers on welfare ad which enraged MAGA influencers such as Jack Posobiec and Will Chamberlain.
Why you asked? Well it's not because of the overarching message itself, but because Huckabee Sanders' ad showed a white guy playing video game instead of working as an example of a moocher which made MAGA influencers on Twitter mad that Huckabee Sanders would promote such an "anti-white" message despite the fact a majority of welfare recipients in Arkansas are white.
As if my governor peddling that bullshit wasn't embarrassing enough, now we're caught up in even more culture war garbage because our governor isn't racist *enough.* There's a non-zero chance she comes out and apologizes for being "anti-white" or tries to double down on racism against her black opponent.
Also in there: NE-Gov and VT-Gov are now likely R rather than safe R. Apparently a second poll for the latter popped up with a close race, per their reply.
I kinda agree that VT-Gov is my sleeper flip. In the last few polls regardless of whether he was ahead or behind, Phil Scott has been at 43-44%. In the bluest state in the country. I can't remember the last time someone at the top of the ticket lost to a challenger with such an unheralded campaign, but we may be here.
Given Scott's numbers I'd assume the gains they made in the VT legislature also go poof. Little remembered outcome from 2024 but Republicans were just 3 seats from flipping the Senate!
I kinda think so too. Scott is pretty well liked, but at some point the environment plus Vermont's natural inclination may just be too much for him to overcome.
I agree. On top of the benefit of flipping the seat, he fits my ideological preferences a bit - Perriello is an AOC- and Progressive Caucus-backed candidate who ran for Governor in 2017 as the progressive candidate and is notable for having voting for Obamacare even though it cost him his seat. I think he’d be a great addition to Congress again.
I switched my rating of PA-07 to Lean Blue literally last night. I switched my rating for PA-10 to Lean Blue last night as well.
But what strikes me in the Nebraska Gov race is that the America First Party is on the ballot and how many votes they could siphon from Jim Pillen. I don't think it will be enough in the end, but the floodgates will open if the race goes to single digits or low double digits.
On the one hand, Monroe and Lackawanna County (Home of Scranton) are good Democratic areas where Cognetti can have pretty healthy margins, plus the whole Bresnahan stock situation plays well in her corner.
On the other hand, the more Republican leaning shift of Wilkes-Barre County, which is a big union county, and rural Pike County are definitely going to be obstacles, plus the union endorsements that Bresnahan has been getting, even one that flipped from Cognetti, could be a deciding factor.
I switched PA-10 to Lean D because Perry is going to be a Trump defender throughout the remainder of his tenure in Congress. And that is something, in a district where the state capital is located, where being a supporter of a very unpopular President who's in the same party as you is where you're most likely to lose.
Considering Bresnahan's stock trading scandals, he's probably a fairly weak incumbent. It's probably going to be closer than PA-07 or 10, but I still expect it to flip.
Econ 101: Consumer confidence fell in September to the lowest it has been since 2014. Of note, "deterioration in consumer confidence has been concentrated among low to middle income households” which allowed "consumer spending to be resilient" but the current drop was due to a sharp decline in confidence by upper-middle class respondents. https://www.marketplace.org/story/2026/09/29/consumer-confidence-falls-to-its-lowest-level-in-12-years
Thank you Trump and thank you Republicans for throwing a strong and growing economy under the bus.
Schmidt’s up for re-election in 2028. Maybe Democrats can bust their ass and make the MO-SEN race more competitive than what they’ve been able to do in the past.
Ohio Marist poll:
Brown 51-43
Acton 50-44
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-ohio-september-2026/
In the Digest.
Ok. Try this one. Ohio Suffolk:
Acton 50-41
https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls/other-states#collapse-September-29-2026-Ohio-Governor-and-US-Senate-with-USA-TODAY-Network-Ohio
Works for me.
An excellent ad from Brown. https://bsky.app/profile/sherrodbrownoh.bsky.social/post/3mwnrqztlt722
Husted is certainly showing his true colors, which isn't new considering the time when he was OH Secretary of State.
NEWS FROM THE NORTH: Nanos Research, which does a four-week rolling poll of voting intentions, came out this morning with a stunning poll that has the Liberal Party on 49.9%, 22 points ahead of the Conservatives. https://nanos.co/carney-and-liberals-hit-new-long-term-high-liberals-at-50-percent-support-carney-at-62-on-preferred-pm-tracking-nanos/
Polling for the Alberta separation referendum shows an overwhelming majority want to remain, with one poll showing a 70-20 split (https://globalnews.ca/news/12072083/alberta-referendum-ipsos-september-2026/) and another showing a 72-23 split (https://www.planetjanet.ca/_files/ugd/586d9d_e50c5a6cc0f64152a81800f517d505ba.pdf, Janet Brown Research for CBC).
Good. I certainly don’t want Alberta as a U.S. state, and I don’t want Quebec either.
Alberta would be to the left of at least half the states in the U.S.
I also meant for Canadian sovereignty reasons. What has happened in relations between the US and Canada is deplorable. I don’t blame Canadians for hating us one bit.
I don't blame Canadians for hating Trump. "Us", or at least those who voted against him and don't like him (and with the "don't like" now including an increasing number of former supporters), shouldn't be blamed.
I mean it's hard to be further right than most of the red states here
Quebec might have another sovereignty referendum but PQ has said that they wouldn't schedule it until post 2028.
I can't imagine a scenario in which if a US state or Canadian province actually successfully passed a secession referendum, binding or not, that Washington or Ottawa would simply say "ok, that's it then, goodbye.", and simply just let them leave. Pretty sure they would be compelled to rejoin using military force, and given the disparity, would be unable to resist. Secession is a fantasy which will never happen.
We got an Angus Reid D+16 and Economist D+15 generic ballot this morning. Some of this just be GOP non-response bias..
——
Angus Reid USA poll | 9/19-9/25
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 56%
🟥Republican 40%
——
Economist/YouGov - LV - 9/28
Generic Ballot poll - National
🔵 Democratic 53% (New High)
🔴 Republican 38%
You can start talking to me about the likes of MS and FL if we get an electorate like that. Too bad we won't, just have to settle for the first Demmycratic Senator in Kansas since...the freaking Great Depression??
And now a Q poll, D+12:
——
Quinnipiac poll | 9/24-9/27 RV
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 51%
🟥Republican 39%
The bottom's beginning to fall out
Somewhat shocked their avalanche of cash isn't really moving the needle either
I mean at a certain point I feel like money starts to have diminishing returns that get smaller the worse things get. No amount of money can save candidates like Ken Paxton or Michael Whatley or even Mike Rogers when gas/diesel prices are at the highest they’ve ever been at this point in the year and public opinion of the ultra wealthy is extremely unpopular in the face of rising unaffordability.
The country is pissed at Trump, and it’s a much harder and stronger disapproval than Biden’s ever was, and unlike the GOP the Democrats actually have a great slate of candidates to take advantage of the political environment. The money advantage might help prevent fringe, peripheral battlegrounds from flipping like South Carolina or Kansas. But if you’re in any of the primary battleground seats/districts, your best bet is to either leave the Republican Party or pray your opponent has a Platner sized scandal before Election Day.
Obviously it won't happen but IF there was a D+16, Google says it would give Democrats between 245-260+ seats
If by google you mean google's AI, I wouldn't trust it as a source, especially with how much recent redistricting there has been.
NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani hasn't completed his first year in office but Anthony Scaramucci, originally critical of Mamdani as a mayoral candidate, has been impressed with his performance as Mayor. Indicates he exceeded his expectations.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-q9rIRJPu-w
I heard a report about his new initiative on fighting antisemitism on WINS today. I was impressed.
AR-Gov
Sarah Huckabee Sanders released a generic boiler plate anti-moochers on welfare ad which enraged MAGA influencers such as Jack Posobiec and Will Chamberlain.
Why you asked? Well it's not because of the overarching message itself, but because Huckabee Sanders' ad showed a white guy playing video game instead of working as an example of a moocher which made MAGA influencers on Twitter mad that Huckabee Sanders would promote such an "anti-white" message despite the fact a majority of welfare recipients in Arkansas are white.
https://www.thebulwark.com/i/217998593/quick-hits
https://x.com/SarahHuckabee/status/2104535664079290746
As if my governor peddling that bullshit wasn't embarrassing enough, now we're caught up in even more culture war garbage because our governor isn't racist *enough.* There's a non-zero chance she comes out and apologizes for being "anti-white" or tries to double down on racism against her black opponent.
This is the worst!
The fact that Arkansas is home to a whites-only commune certainly backs up this worldview, too.
Crystal Ball moves VA2 and PA 7 from tossup to lean Dem. And VA 1 from lean R to toss up. Among other moves in the Dem direction.
https://x.com/JMilesColeman/status/2105013287113105459?s=20
Also in there: NE-Gov and VT-Gov are now likely R rather than safe R. Apparently a second poll for the latter popped up with a close race, per their reply.
I kinda agree that VT-Gov is my sleeper flip. In the last few polls regardless of whether he was ahead or behind, Phil Scott has been at 43-44%. In the bluest state in the country. I can't remember the last time someone at the top of the ticket lost to a challenger with such an unheralded campaign, but we may be here.
Given Scott's numbers I'd assume the gains they made in the VT legislature also go poof. Little remembered outcome from 2024 but Republicans were just 3 seats from flipping the Senate!
I kinda think so too. Scott is pretty well liked, but at some point the environment plus Vermont's natural inclination may just be too much for him to overcome.
I wonder how close we are to VA5 being potentially winnable. It would be nice to see Tom Perriello back in Congress.
I agree. On top of the benefit of flipping the seat, he fits my ideological preferences a bit - Perriello is an AOC- and Progressive Caucus-backed candidate who ran for Governor in 2017 as the progressive candidate and is notable for having voting for Obamacare even though it cost him his seat. I think he’d be a great addition to Congress again.
I switched my rating of PA-07 to Lean Blue literally last night. I switched my rating for PA-10 to Lean Blue last night as well.
But what strikes me in the Nebraska Gov race is that the America First Party is on the ballot and how many votes they could siphon from Jim Pillen. I don't think it will be enough in the end, but the floodgates will open if the race goes to single digits or low double digits.
What are your thoughts on PA-08? How likely is a Cognetti flip?
On the one hand, Monroe and Lackawanna County (Home of Scranton) are good Democratic areas where Cognetti can have pretty healthy margins, plus the whole Bresnahan stock situation plays well in her corner.
On the other hand, the more Republican leaning shift of Wilkes-Barre County, which is a big union county, and rural Pike County are definitely going to be obstacles, plus the union endorsements that Bresnahan has been getting, even one that flipped from Cognetti, could be a deciding factor.
I switched PA-10 to Lean D because Perry is going to be a Trump defender throughout the remainder of his tenure in Congress. And that is something, in a district where the state capital is located, where being a supporter of a very unpopular President who's in the same party as you is where you're most likely to lose.
I think you mean Luzerne.
Considering Bresnahan's stock trading scandals, he's probably a fairly weak incumbent. It's probably going to be closer than PA-07 or 10, but I still expect it to flip.
VA-2 will be blue! Ordered my Elaine Luria yard sign a week ago, still waiting for it to be delivered
Econ 101: Consumer confidence fell in September to the lowest it has been since 2014. Of note, "deterioration in consumer confidence has been concentrated among low to middle income households” which allowed "consumer spending to be resilient" but the current drop was due to a sharp decline in confidence by upper-middle class respondents. https://www.marketplace.org/story/2026/09/29/consumer-confidence-falls-to-its-lowest-level-in-12-years
Thank you Trump and thank you Republicans for throwing a strong and growing economy under the bus.
Eric Schmitt and his staff are trying to outdo Tuberville for the dumbest/most incompetent on the Hill. He really thought he caught Jack Smith in a gotcha and Klobuchar embarrassed him further. https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/29/jack-smith-hearing-senate-judiciary-01098107
Schmidt’s up for re-election in 2028. Maybe Democrats can bust their ass and make the MO-SEN race more competitive than what they’ve been able to do in the past.
I yearn for the day we punish stupidity and undeserved arrogance. It’s not anytime soon. But I just want to be alive to see it.