Imo the NY Mayor's race poll is almost meaningless; we don't know the actual candidate field and this type poll is almost an entirely name recognition result
Imo the NY Mayor's race poll is almost meaningless; we don't know the actual candidate field and this type poll is almost an entirely name recognition result
I agree with you that the polls right now reflect only name ID.
If I remember correctly, Anthony Weiner had somewhat of a lead in polling going into the actual election as well, probably because of name recognition too.
Oftentimes scandal-plagued frontrunners end up stepping on their own toes, let's not forget.
lots of early name recognition polls become statistically meaningless once the actual candidate list is finalized and the actual campaign starts; polls like this are mainly utilized for early fundraising, not actual campaign strategy
Yes, but for someone other than Cuomo or Adams (who is probably DOA) to win they'll probably have to consolidate the field down to only one serious opponent. Even with RCV it will be difficult for someone else to break through if the opposition is split between five or six people.
While Cuomo hasn't declared yet and Adams might not bother to run, the above looks like a pretty likely list of the people in the race. A 41 point lead isn't exactly small potatoes.
Not sure why you think it has little value. It conforms with most other polling, the top vote getters aren't quite nobodies like Andrew Yang, and it's not incredibly far out from the actual primary. Unless Cuomo doesn't run, I think it's fairly useful.
Imo the NY Mayor's race poll is almost meaningless; we don't know the actual candidate field and this type poll is almost an entirely name recognition result
I agree with you that the polls right now reflect only name ID.
If I remember correctly, Anthony Weiner had somewhat of a lead in polling going into the actual election as well, probably because of name recognition too.
Oftentimes scandal-plagued frontrunners end up stepping on their own toes, let's not forget.
lots of early name recognition polls become statistically meaningless once the actual candidate list is finalized and the actual campaign starts; polls like this are mainly utilized for early fundraising, not actual campaign strategy
Cuomo as mayor is a nightmare to me, but I'm glad to see Lander in 2nd place.
I wouldn't say meaningless, it shows that people want to move on from Adams.
Fair point
Yes, but for someone other than Cuomo or Adams (who is probably DOA) to win they'll probably have to consolidate the field down to only one serious opponent. Even with RCV it will be difficult for someone else to break through if the opposition is split between five or six people.
While Cuomo hasn't declared yet and Adams might not bother to run, the above looks like a pretty likely list of the people in the race. A 41 point lead isn't exactly small potatoes.
if you agree that the poll is actually meaningful, then yes, but imo the poll has very little true value
Not sure why you think it has little value. It conforms with most other polling, the top vote getters aren't quite nobodies like Andrew Yang, and it's not incredibly far out from the actual primary. Unless Cuomo doesn't run, I think it's fairly useful.
I think it has little value for the reasons I stated above; so let's agree to disagree