138 Comments
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Paleo's avatar

Except Ciattarelli is not far right.

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

He's cosplaying as far-right now, so distinction without a difference.

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Essex Democrat's avatar

he's worse than far right, he's a man without any principles beholden to whatever will get him ahead

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Brad Warren's avatar

...which is exactly what I told people who said that Mitt Romney was moderate (and thus indistinguishable from Obama *eyeroll*) in 2012.

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michaelflutist's avatar

He was the most mendacious general election presidential candidate in my lifetime - until Trump. And he certainly was and is not worse than Trump.

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Paleo's avatar

Romney? He was a paragon of virtue compared to Bush in 1988.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Bush's big lie was that he would never raise taxes, exclusive of whatever he covered up about Iran/Contra and so forth, but Romney campaigned against his entire record, just denying things he had done as Governor of Massachusetts, except when it suited him to take credit for them. Remember the first debate with President Obama? He didn't know what to do because he didn't expect Romney to lie about everything. It was really next-level lying, until Trump.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Romney is also well spoken and far better educated than Trump, especially with how the Constitution works. He after all did get an MBA & JD Degree at Harvard. His presidential runs showed he was the Etch-A-Sketch dude and was painted rightfully so as aloof.

Besides, in the post-Trump era Romney wasn’t that bad. He joined a Black Lives Matter protest in DC, voted for Ketanji Jackson Brown for Supreme Court Justice (confirmation done by 6 vote margin) and ever since running in the GOP Presidential Primary back in 2008 repeatedly called for the Confederate Flags to be removed.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Being well-educated doesn't mean anything about someone's character, though. J.D. Vance has a J.D. from Yale Law School.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Comparatively, I’m talking about Romney vs Trump. In this aspect, Romney is better educated than Trump.

On the other hand, I’d say Romney has a better grasp on the Constitution than Vance. He also as Senator was a complete departure from how he was back in 2012 as a presidential candidate. He wasn’t afraid of upholding the Constitution in impeaching Trump over the January 6th 2021 insurrection. He also didn’t pull a Vance by completely being a Trumper. He stayed true to his principles.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Besides, going for a dual graduate degree isn’t for those who slack off. It’s a lot of hard work, from those who I have spoken to about it.

Trump would not be able to handle it.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Yeah, Trump is not smart, but I think you missed my point. Being well-educated has absolutely nothing to do with a person's character or morality. Every single justice on the Supreme Court is extremely well-educated!

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Zero Cool's avatar

I agree.

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dragonfire5004's avatar

For those who went looking for the actual article as I did, here’s saving you that wasted time:

https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/sherrill-leads-ciattarelli-by-20-point-in-rutgers-eagleton-poll/

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Ben F.'s avatar

Is this a reputable pollster?

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Paleo's avatar

Yes.

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Paula Holder's avatar

How does NC block Lara trump?

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MPC's avatar
Jul 2Edited

Lara Trump doesn't have a history of running (and "winning") an election, unlike her horrific father-in-law. That Trump "magic" won't transfer to her.

And if Roy Cooper jumps in, he'll beat her.

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homerun1's avatar

Yeah, Lara Trump would have to actually enter and win primary and general elections. As opposed to getting a freebie appointment, like back when she was being talked up for the Senate spot to replace Rubio.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Could argue the same for the rest of Trump’s children and step children.

As much as Trump has changed the landscape with his presidential runs and being POTUS, his own children don’t seem to ignite the same kind of enthusiasm if they were to run for political office.

This applies to Don Jr and Eric Trump. Not only do they talk differently than Trump, they’ve never exactly built their own brand like Trump and have instead followed in his own shadow.

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ArcticStones's avatar

I really don’t think we’ll see Mrs Eric Trump winning any major election anytime soon.

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PollJunkie's avatar

Why are we thinking that GOP would win even if Trump himself ran in that seat? He won by just 3 points in a vastly different and somewhat nostalgic political climate for him in November.

Kari Lake, Mastriano etc tried to be Trump without the name, it doesn't work that way too.

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MPC's avatar

Rachel Hunt would be a solid candidate for a U.S. Senate seat, so I'm glad she's hoping and pushing for Cooper to run next year. Maybe she can run against Ted Budd in 2028 if the 2026 open seat flips.

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Zero Cool's avatar

If Cooper runs, Democrats can have a good shot at picking up the seat.

And with Cooper potentially in the Senate, the chances of Democrats unseating Ted Budd in 2028 would be made easier as long as Cooper has influence is in the Senate.

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NewEnglandMinnesotan's avatar

Why would Cooper being in the Senate make the other seat easier for Dems?

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Zero Cool's avatar

It would only be two years before 2028 that Cooper would be elected. However, as a Senator, he as also a former Governor who is popular in NC and endorsing and campaigning with the Democratic Senate Nominee in 2028 could make a difference.

Of course, this is two years away and we still have to win the NC-SEN race next year.

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JD's avatar

Lily Tang Williams will give it another try in NH-02. This should be good news for Rep. Maggie Goodlander, who is doing a decent enough job in her first term. She’s too centrist for me… but this is NH.

I must say that the same thing that will prevent Williams from winning, will also guarantee her 45% of the vote - her strong libertarian streak. And I do understand the appeal. I’ve seen some videos of her ranting on FB and the anger is genuine and relatable. She’s too far out there for most but she can connect with voter’s who are frustrated. Though in 2026, it *SHOULD* be the Democrats who have a monopoly on connecting with voter frustration.

https://newhampshirebulletin.com/2025/07/02/new-hampshires-2nd-congressional-race-in-2026-could-be-a-rematch/

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

GA-Gov: I'll admit I'm intrigued at the idea of a Geoff Duncan run, these are the kinds of voters we need to appeal to, at least in part. He would need to demonstrate that he's not just an ally of convenience to win a primary though.

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Apparently as recently as January this year he said he "still considers himself a Republican", so I'm less interested.

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JD's avatar

I agree. He’s like GA’s version of Adam Kinzinger. While I’d prefer someone with a life long Democratic pedigree, that doesn’t always make for a viable candidate. I think there is value to running ex-republicans who are disgusted with their former party and willing to vocalize it. Maybe they can break through to WWC voters in a way stuffy liberals (like myself) cannot.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Yeah, but what are his positions on issues other than autocracy?

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Toiler On the Sea's avatar

He'd have to find an entryway into the ATL black vote to have a chance . .not win them outright, but peel off enough.

I would support him in a heartbeat over Bottoms . .who is just a terrible candidate and was a terrible Mayor.

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bpfish's avatar

Even if she was a great mayor, I think she disqualified herself from future office with her own reasons for not seeking reelection as ATL mayor -- she basically admitted she couldn't handle the challenges (Covid, the protests, etc.). The next few years are not going to be easy in this country, and now she wants to be Governor?

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Paleo's avatar

Regardless of his merits, when's the last time a switch like that has worked out. At least for Democrats. The idea always looks good on paper, less good in reality. And Georgia is not Florida for Democrats.

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dragonfire5004's avatar

It’s hard not to agree with this when the overwhelming evidence of party switches from R to D blow up in our faces in some way regularly. That said, I do think it’s much more plausible to do a switch and be successful in state government, then federally and Georgia is still a hard state to win for Democrats, so they may need someone like Geoff Duncan to get 50%. So there’s a lot of factors to balance out.

If he runs and moves to center left from center right I think Democratic primary voters could be willing to nominate him (and even if he doesn’t they still could) due to his massive name ID advantage, a split field and gobs of money more than any other candidate to spend on his potential campaign. But he could also very well lose a hypothetical primary badly as Democrats this year are in no mood for the same old politics in primaries held so far.

In the end I don’t think he runs for Governor, but I do think he could run for the lower ballot offices like AG or SoS as either a moderate Republican or moderate Democrat. Time will tell.

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Paleo's avatar

The split field would be the biggest thing he'd have going for him. Particularly given the likely racial composition of the field.

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Conor Gallogly's avatar

I certainly wouldn’t clear out a primary for him, but I would also encourage him to run. The Democratic Party was stronger when elected leaders ranged from progressive to conservative and held a mix of positions.

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Diogenes's avatar

While endorsing Joe Biden in 2024, Duncan called Trump "a criminal defendant without a moral compass." But he also described Biden as a "decent person I disagree with on policy." I'd like to know which Biden policies Duncan disagrees with.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Probably immigration although I cannot confirm this.

And on the issue of abortion.

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PollJunkie's avatar

Even David Jolly who has been shifting left ever since Trump first ran in 2016 is a much better candidate. He has a record of an ideological change to show to voters while Duncan was calling himself a traditional conservative and Reagan Republican during the entire Presidential campaign.

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Alex Hupp's avatar

"Mathematically, 56% is widely considered to be a majority."

I'm keeping this in my back pocket, that was good.

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

I think I see what the spokesperson was *trying* to say, if clumsily worded. They're saying "not a majority" meaning even a majority in the primary doesn't necessarily mean a majority of the city as a whole. Still seems like sore loser talk anyway.

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David Nir's avatar

The spokesperson specifically referred to "a slice of the primary," as though that "slice" were somehow less than a majority. Anyway, Cuomo's hacks never get the benefit of the doubt!

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Listen idk about you but I wouldn't mind eating 56% of a pizza in one slice. :D

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David Nir's avatar

😄

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Henrik's avatar

Politico on France 2027. I hadn’t realized non-RN parties had Balkanized to this extent. Mon dieu

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-presidential-race-2027-succession-france-eu/

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Gasp94's avatar

I’m French and I agree.

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MPC's avatar

NC Representative Deborah Ross told Politico she believes Roy Cooper will run for the U.S. Senate seat and he'll make his final decision in the next two weeks.

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homerun1's avatar

Gov. JB Pritzker taps Christian Mitchell as lieutenant governor pick in campaign for third term.

Mitchell is a former South Side state representative who also served as Pritzker’s deputy governor.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/illinois-governor/2025/07/01/jb-pritzker-christian-mitchell-lieutenant-governor-third-term-campaign

Mitchell is a 38 year old black man, and Illinois Air National Guard first lieutenant.

The current Lt Gov, Juliana Stratton of course is running for Durbin's Senate seat. She has Pritzker's endorsement.

Probablya good pick, but cue the whining that it's an all-Chicago ticket, or that Pritzker didn't select a Latino this time around.

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rayspace's avatar

It's possible to be against the Mitchell pick and not be "whining," for any of several reasons. Mitchell stands for...wait, let me think...I know there's something...it must be...nope, there's nothing. He stands for nothing.

Also, IL is in the midst of a major outflow of Black residents/voters, while the growth populations in the state are Hispanics. Not to say we don't need Black elected officials (and 2/3 of the Dem Sen candidates are African-American), but to see Mitchell as anything other than a Preckwinkle patronage pick is a joke.

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Justin Gibson's avatar

Decent pick, but should have picked either Jehan Gordon-Booth or Lisa Hernandez, or even Andy Manar.

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Conor Gallogly's avatar

Donalds has raised a huge amount of money

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dragonfire5004's avatar

Yeah, he’s got ambitions much higher than Governor and now is when he gets his feet wet in the bigger leagues politically speaking. He’s trying to show as early as he can of his political might to the GOP donors who bankroll Republican campaigns for president. If he has two terms as FL-Gov I’d be shocked if he didn’t run after that for the White House.

It’s also a big swipe at DeSantis, because he only raised $59m total for his entire first gubernatorial campaign in 2018.

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Conor Gallogly's avatar

He’ll be very hard to defeat.

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homerun1's avatar

some nice news from San Diego, California:

https://www.kpbs.org/news/politics/2025/07/01/live-election-results-san-diego-county-district-1-supervisor

The early returns in Tuesday’s runoff election for county supervisor show Paloma Aguirre, the Democratic mayor of Imperial Beach, with a 6-point lead over her opponent, Chula Vista Mayor John McCann.

This race is set to decide which party takes control of the five-member board, which was previously held by a Democratic majority and is now currently split between two Democrats and two Republicans.

If the early results hold, that means Aguirre will be elected the next county supervisor for District 1, shifting the balance of power on the Board in favor of Democrats.

"Today belongs to the working-class people of District 1, a nuestra gente trabajadora,” she said in the emailed statement. “Who now have a fighter at the county Board of Supervisors who will hold the line against the Trump administration.”

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AWildLibAppeared's avatar

As I mentioned in a comment late last night, the Registrar of Voters estimates there are only 9,500 ballots left to count. That means McCann would have to win over 70% of the remaining votes.

Historically, late ballots in San Diego County skew Democratic, so it's almost certain that Aguirre won.

The next update will be on Thursday, July 3rd, sometime before 5pm PST.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Per Newsweek, should be worth mentioning that the GOP turnout was closer than expected in early returns.

That said, this is also not LA. It’s more probable a Republican would be elected in San Diego County Council than LA City Council but given what seems to be happening as votes come in, Aguirre has the edge.

https://www.newsweek.com/san-diego-county-board-supervisors-election-2093518

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dragonfire5004's avatar

Something imo worth pointing out: We’ve now had 3 major state primaries in states where I think, objectively, progressives overperformed expectations/polling in the Democratic primary. Not uniformly, but almost. Each race and state individually can be explained away (except Mamdani) due to special circumstances. That may have a huge impact on midterm primaries in the year+ to come in both blue seats and swing seats.

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PollJunkie's avatar

California's biggest obstacle to housing, CEQA got defanged!! No more suing most housing and infrastructure projects! This is all due to the efforts of Ezra Klein, Derek Thompson, Newsom and State Sen. Scott Wiener. It is, as former Gov. Jerry Brown famously called it, "the Lord's work."

I hope that as a bonus, California's electoral votes don't decrease much.

If anyone wants to read about it:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Environmental_Quality_Act

https://calmatters.org/housing/2025/06/ceqa-urban-development-infill-budget/

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AWildLibAppeared's avatar

It's important to note that the defanging of CEQA only applies to "urban infill" projects for housing and some other key infrastructure projects, such as high-speed rail stations (an interesting detail, to say the least).

However, urban infill is where much of the need is for California housing, and where most projects faced CEQA lawsuit threats, so this change will likely help a lot.

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homerun1's avatar

CEQA as used by environmentalists as intended is good, forcing strict environmental requirements.

Unfortunately, bad players and their lawyers have learned how to weaponize it, using it for non-environmental agendas to simply stop projects.

Thus this CEQA change was really needed.

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PollJunkie's avatar

It has also been repeatedly abused by the luddite faction of environmentalists who want to block any infrastructure or housing since every development has an environmental *impact*.

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Henrik's avatar

It also had absurd and unique to California interpretations of impact such as “if cars idle because of transit it increases emissions thus no transit even if said transit takes drivers off the road”

Yeah. It’s a highly flawed piece of environmental law

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Diogenes's avatar

Elections have consequences. By a 4-3 vote, the Wisconsin supreme court today struck down the state's abortion ban.

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MPC's avatar

I expect the SCOWI majority to grow to 5-2 next April and hopefully 6-1 in 2027. They need to nullify that photo ID law.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Or make photo IDs free and very easily obtainable. Also legislated the university/college ID cards must be accepted.

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homerun1's avatar

This always gets me...

Exactly how do photo IDs work when you have automatic universal vote-by-mail ballots mailed to you, like many states do?

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MPC's avatar

They use backdoor logic, like using the state ID number or last 4 digits of your SS number to apply for and/or send back the ballot.

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homerun1's avatar

But filling out my VBM ballot... ID numbers and 4 SS digits have nothing to do with a photo on some card.

I fear that this photo ID crap is actually a backdoor method to eventually eliminate VBM. (and Trump is trying to force it on us Californians by making it a condition to restore funds he's withheld from the state)

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MPC's avatar

I don't doubt it, even though FDJT is a gigantic hypocrite by using VBM himself (apart from Election Day photo ops with the First W-, I mean Lady).

I think Utah Republicans are going to get a big backlash when their universal VBM system goes bye-bye in 2029 -- and UT voters are going to demand why they did away with it. That's going to help out Democrats and suppress Republicans.

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MPC's avatar

Republicans put on this BS of "election security" when pushing for photo IDs to vote but purposely don't make it easy for people to get it (even if the state offers "free ID", which costs money to get to a DMV and get the docs needed). They won't fund ad campaigns explaining the changes -- heck, NC stopped bringing a mobile DMV unit to the State Fair after Republicans took control of the legislature! And some red states don't even have exemptions if you don't have ID -- it's crazy how FL and NC has more permissive voter ID laws than, say, WI, TN and GA.

VoteRiders shouldn't have to shoulder the burden of making it easy to get the ID you need.

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the lurking ecologist's avatar

In SC you can get a free voter photo ID from any election office if you are already registered. If not, you register first with a state ID (usually DL) or a bank statement, utility bill, or govt doc that shows your current address, then you get the photo id the same day. We've had this for awhile now and I've been the poll clerk or poll manager for 8 elections and I haven't seen anyone use one yet. Everyone uses their DL. Precinct is 30% black and 40% low income. But it is not urban so public transportation is not much of a thing.

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Brad Warren's avatar

Someone call Rebecca Bradley a WAAAAAAAH-mbulance!

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MPC's avatar

That dissent was AWFUL.

WI voters, please replace that Walker plant Bradley with Chris Taylor come April 7, 2026.

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Brad Warren's avatar

Oh, I didn't even know there was a dissent. I'm sure it's an absolute doozy.

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homerun1's avatar

Wisconsin Supreme Court’s liberal majority strikes down 176-year-old abortion ban

https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-abortion-ban-1849-01658358639a63db7df92aeec34c612d

The ban was in effect until 1973, when the U.S. Supreme Court’s landmark Roe v. Wade decision legalizing abortion nationwide nullified it. Legislators never officially repealed it, however, and conservatives argued that the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe reactivated it.

The ruling came as no surprise given that liberal justices control the high court. One of them went so far as promising to uphold abortion rights during her campaign two years ago, and they blasted the ban during oral arguments in November.

Democratic-backed Susan Crawford defeated conservative Brad Schimel for an open seat on the court in April, ensuring liberals will maintain their 4-3 edge until at least 2028. Crawford has not been sworn in yet and was not part of Wednesday’s ruling.

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Zero Cool's avatar

CA-11:

State Senator Scott Weiner files for running to replace Nancy Pelosi should she retire. Per the article, the actual paperwork Weiner filed is for 2028, not 2026.

Weiner’s been good on plenty of issues although back when he was Supervisor, he had a tendency to focus attention on issues that were not of great concern such as banning “butt juice” and public nudity. This made him kind of a square with certain people in the LGBTQ community.

Also, Weiner really started pissing off people like former Supervisor Aaron Peskin by accusing him of coordinating the recall race of Supervisor Joel Edgardo regarding the partial closure of the Great Highway. There is no evidence Peskin, who left office as District 3 Supervisor, is actually coordinating the recall.

Weiner’s definitely politically savvy but I am not sure as of yet he inspires me that much to be the one to replace Pelosi. I’d rather someone who comes after her be more of a uniter of San Franciscans.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2025/06/30/state-sen-scott-wiener-prepares-to-run-for-nancy-pelosis-congressional-seat/amp/

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Henrik's avatar

He almost certainly isn’t filing if he thinks Pelosi might run again, so that’s an interesting tell

Wonder if she backs Mark Leno still instead?

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AWildLibAppeared's avatar

Mark Leno is 73, and her daughter Christine Pelosi is almost certain to run. I would think she'd back her.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Plus, Christine Pelosi looks more like Nancy Pelosi so it would be an interesting transition to say the least if we go from one Pelosi to the next in San Francisco. :)

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Zack from the SFV's avatar

Previously that seat went from one Burton (Phil) to another (his widow Sala Burton) so it wouldn't be the first time.

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homerun1's avatar

Scott Wiener won re-election to the state Senate in 2024, so his term ends in 2028.

So wouldn't a run for CA-11 in 2026 be a free shot? So why not run? If he doesn't finish in the top-two in the jungle primary, he's still in the Senate thru 2028.

Hmm, if the top-two result turned out to be Nancy vs him, well that would be an interesting contest to say the least...

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Because he would a) definitely lose and b) damage his future prospects because he lost.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Well we don't know when Pelosi officially intends to retire. However, my guess is that she'll likely do it strategically in 2028 if in fact she believes that the Democratic Party and the country will be likely going in a trajectory that is more positive - In moving on from Trump.

In 2026, Pelosi and others are likely going to be having their hands tied with winning back the House and even trying to win the Senate as well. I don't think she's going to want to retire just yet.

That said, given her husband Paul Pelosi had gotten attacked by the now-convicted attacker David DePape and is facing a lot of issues now he didn't have before as a result of the attack, that also takes priority for her.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Her presence in Congress is not needed, though.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Certainly not. Given she's not House Speaker anymore, no, she's not welding the same kind of influence like she used to.

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michaelflutist's avatar

And she can always pick up the phone and call members.

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Zero Cool's avatar

She's great at that!

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michaelflutist's avatar

Right, but doesn't need to be in Congress to do so.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Of course.

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Colin Artinger's avatar

I'm pretty sure he filed for 2028, not 2026.

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Colin Artinger's avatar

to run for Pelosi's seat, I mean.

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Zero Cool's avatar

I just added the details in the original post. Per the article, Weiner's filed for a 2028 run, not 2026.

That said, anything could change. Pelosi could decline to run for re-election next month or even September. Right now, I don't see that happening.

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derkmc's avatar

Most former Speakers don't stick around long after their speakership ends so I'm a bit puzzled Pelosi is still wanting to be in the House. Hopefully she doesn't want to hold the seat until the very end and just passes it off to someone else.

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Zero Cool's avatar

I don’t expect Pelosi will be in office for much longer. If she decided to not run for House Speaker, it’s a good thing.

She’s had a great life as an effective legislator and negotiator with Democrats.

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