While the nation has its eye on today's primary elections in Texas, I am crossing my fingers that corrupt power broker Phil Berger loses his contested primary here in NC.
People know I DESPISE this man with a passion and if you look up what he's done to this state during the past 15 years of GOP state legislative control -- you'll hate him too.
Unlike Berger, Page supports the state House budget as opposed to Berger's desire to eliminate the state tax entirely (which would put our state in a dire KS-like situation).
Plus, Berger only won re-election in 2024 by four points. In a blue wave election, a heavily damaged Berger or Page would be vulnerable to an upset flip in November.
Depends on each state. The early votes are processed and released first in NC right after polls close, so I expect Cooper and Whatley to be announced as their primary winners around 7:35 p.m.-8 p.m. tonight.
I don't expect the primary results in TX to be announced when polls close there unless Crockett or Talarico win by a decisive amount just on the EV numbers (and less robust ED turnout today). Probably closer to midnight CST for that one.
Shock poll out of the UK from Sky News this morning showing the Greens in second place just behind Reform UK in the aftermath of the Greens' victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election. Labour has lost 73% of their supporters from the 2024 election.
2029 is obviously milenia away in politics. But if this holds you'd see the two main parties essentially eaten by their left and right flanks respectively, with crazy and unpredictable consequences in the first past the post system.
The party had a big row over the issue back in 2023. One of the co-leaders resigned over the party's pro Trans rights positions and "gender-critical" members claiming they were being forced out of the party. As far as I understand it, there remains some internal conflict within the party over the matter, though the official party line remains the most pro Trans of any party in Britain.
I don't think it's a stretch to call Jill Stein a Russian asset (at worst, useful idiot at best), but I wouldn't go so far as to say that applied to all US Greens
I stopped supporting the US Green Party back in 2006, now 20 years ago, when I had just filled in my absentee ballot for California and realised that every single row office candidate had put some version of "investment advisor" down as their profession. (In California, candidates list there profession beside their name on the ballot.) This was the last straw for me and I finally saw the professional spoilers for what they were.
As Julius said below very leftie, but they're rhetorically more pragmatic than you'd expect for a Green party. Zack Polanski, their leader has said publicly immigration should be "fair and managed" and said you can care for the environment and still eat meat, drive a car and fly.
It's kind of amazing how short sighted Labour's politics are right now.
They're trying to win over some of the conservative (small c) voters, but to do that they need to alienate some of their own voters. Problem is: their own voters have alternatives that are more robust than "don't vote", unlike here. The major advantage these parties hold is strategic voting and being the default for their side of the ideological spectrum. If they lose that, they can collapse quickly.
If this continues, Greens might become the new default-left party in the UK.
Honestly, I think pollsters don't have much experience in polling the Democratic primary electorate in a very diverse and the second most populated state so they are basically experimenting with different models and will see which turns out to be correct.
And I do not think 2024 modeling/assumptions will hold very often, either.
I think the composition (R/D/I) will be different. Bluer: more enthusiasm from Ds & D inclined Is. Some Rs staying home.
I think you will have more infrequent/1st time voters, and most of them will be blue-ish.
I think you will see the behavior of established voters shift blue a bit. Trump has lost ground amongst young voters, Latinos, and just about everywhere else. Some will switch, some will vote 3rd party.
And, lastly, I think there will be powerful anti-establishment, anti-incumbancy sentiment on both sides in primaries. The Empire will strike back in some instances, but for the most part this will benefit progressive challengers to more centrist electeds.
I was using the Empire as the establishment on both sides. The AIPAC/3rd way types may capitalize on anti-incumbancy feelings to oust some more progressive officeholders (especially older ones, like, say Markey/Moulton is in MA), but forcthe most part it will go the other way.
Exactly. 2026 midterms ain’t going to end the empire, but it’s going to give such a monumental setback that’ll eventually lead them to a total victory in the future. They knocked off the organization that had total control of the world because of fear. Once that was defeated and the rebel alliance grew strong enough, it led to total victory in the end. Tell me that doesn’t sound what’s hopefully going to happen with the exact setup of election years to compare to the films.
Even though we don’t know what happens in a future election, if Democrats win 2028, it’s a transition to the next trilogy of the story (either set, regardless of chronological order) even though those films probably won’t lineup at all so the similarities end there lol. My interpretation anyways fwiw.
Polling primaries is more difficult than general elections. It sounds like most Texas democrats like both Crockett and Talarico. That's a recipe for wild swings in polling results.
I think the divergence in polling is healthy, if anything. It means they're not herding.
There have been a surprising fourteen polls testing Crockett vs Talarico. They found: C+18, C+17, C+8, T+9, C+13, C+1, C+8, T+4, C+12, C+18, T+12, T+6, T+5, T+13. We'll know soon!
55% of the unaffiliated voters that participated early voted in the Democratic primaries here in North Carolina. And 65% of the early vote in the Berger v Page matchup has come from Rockingham County (Berger's district is conveniently gerrymandered between Rockingham and Guilford Counties).
I think someone plotted out. The UNAs participating in two major parties are geographically very different.
The rural/exurban UNAs are much more onto R primaries. Traditionally they are just softer Rs.
The city or suburbs within the big urban counties have a quite disproportionate UNAs choosing D ballots. Like in Wake it was something 10:1 of choosing D vs R ballots.
So UNA is the Carolinian translation of the name of the people that we call NPP (no party preference) voters in California. They used to be DTS (decline to state a party preference) but terminology changes. Thanks for the explanation.
As a matter of fact, UNAs can choose vote in any party primary as long as that party allows it.
I think D or R primaries are semi-closed, to only partisans or UNA choosing to participate. Any other voters would have to re-register to the party they wish to vote, on the spot during the early voting. There is no Election Day registration after the early voting ended.
if the dccc starts playing in primaries they can kiss by 250 a month in donations goodbye, which is a drop in the bucket but I am donating to win a majority not donating to protect safe seat incumbents
of course, marcy kaptur would be the beneficiary. I donate to other campaigns, but don't like giving before primaries so just giving to incumbent dems in tough seats at the moment
From the article and a link for those to read from archive. What this tells me is yeah, we’re going to waste a lot of money on primaries in blue seats, but it also shows an amount of grassroots energy in our base that’s been missing, similar to the tea party wave of 2010 which swept the GOP into a landslide midterm election victory. This is an unequivocal good thing for our party.
Larson saying “well I would’ve donated my $400k raised last cycle to flip seats” is a perfect example of just how out of touch and lazy our establishment blue seat reps have gotten. $400k raised over 2 years is a pathetic amount of fundraising, even for a safe blue seat, but now with Larson facing a tough primary, he’s anticipating raising $5m.
Well, why didn’t he raise that $5m for other Democrats before? If he can do it now, he could’ve done it then, but he didn’t. The entitlement attitude in our party that they own the seat no matter what has to end. Why is it only now that he and other Democrats decide to work hard in their campaigns instead of coasting to victory? This argument rings so incredibly hollow.
The weak link we have in our party isn’t the swing seats, it’s the dark blue ones where Trump gained the most ground in for 2024 and it’s why I’m wholeheartedly backing the primary challengers for almost every single race in upcoming nomination battles. Time to get people in these seats who are going to run hard every cycle, not just begin to run real campaigns only after they get a challenger and are worried about losing their seat.
Flashback: Contrast that with the 2018 election cycle, in which progressives rode a wave of grassroots energy spurred by Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign two years earlier to make huge gains.
2018 was the year Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) unseated veteran Democratic incumbents.
But just half a dozen Democratic primary challengers ended 2017 having raised $76,000, the CPI-adjusted equivalent of $100,000 that year.
Crap Dems in deep blue seats are the worst of both worlds. Thise seats are attractive tonsome folks BECAUSE it is essentially a lifetime appointment & they don't have to do much. Ride that gravy train.
I'm sorry, but if incumbents, who already have massive advantages winning reelection, are whining that the DCCC should be doing more to protect them rather than win the majority in this most crucial of elections, they deserve to lose. I understand the DCCC can't back primary challenges against controversial members, but these people are being unthinkably selfish. I hope people starting naming names, as I'd like to know who these idiots are.
Sure, but I really don't think that he is anywhere near that much of a favorite to win. If I wasn't strongly against political gambling, I'd bet on Crockett winning with those odds.
this would be true if it was truly about odds, but it's not. Elections aren't random chance. there are a lot of perceptible factors here and most of them would lead you to believe Talarico is going to win.
Plenty of polls still have Crockett ahead. I’m rooting for Talarico and I think he’ll win but the idea that he’s more likely to win his primary than Paxton is to win the Republican primary doesn’t seem to be grounded in much of anything.
"If you do not have a viable path to make it to the General Election, do not file to place your name on the ballot for the Primary Election.
If you decide to file, be prepared to suspend your campaign and endorse another candidate on or before April 15th if your campaign cannot show meaningful progress towards winning the Primary Election in the coming weeks."
Such welcome news about Whitsett in the MI House. But don’t be surprised if Duggan chooses her for LG - despite her statement to the contrary. Hope she and her buddy Duggan have the same job come January 1st - unemployed former politician.
Jon Hoffman: "Israel Hayom—owned by Miriam Adelson, the hawkish pro-Israel megadonor to both of Trump’s presidential campaigns—is now openly reporting that the strategy is to essentially collapse Iran into civil war and hope for the best."
This has nothing to do with elections, but I still find it so bizarre how many rightwing idiots and enablers are now saying the exact same thing Democrats have been arguing for 10 years on social media. It’s a cult that doesn’t believe in facts.
If -- as Trump again said last night -- MAGA means nothing more than featly to whatever Trump believes when he wakes up (even if it's the exact opposite of what he said he believed the day before), then it is, by definition, a cult, not a political movement.
That's why
@FmrRepMTG
has said there's a fundamental difference between MAGA (a cult of personality and leader-worship) and America First (a fixed set of ideological values).
I’ve figured out what makes Trump boomers so stupid: Their entire worldview is being fed to them thru the “left vs. right” lens of whatever biased broadcasting they’re listening to.
So if you bring them a fact, they just juxtapose it with some talking point they heard:
Interesting point, but that last tweet has one word in there that 1) is a complete non-sequitur, not related at all to the rest of the tweet, and 2) involves a topic that is forbidden to discuss here.
My sincere apologies, I missed that word and you’re absolutely correct that it’s not allowed in discussion here. I’ve replaced the word with “biased” in the tweet as I think that’s the closest one I can come up with ,without running afoul of the rules. Thank you for quickly notifying me of that. If you or others have a different suggestion, feel free to lmk!
Pretty much on point but that last part mentioning “Zionist Media” really undermines the point…we (and I know this isn’t your own tweet) can just say “lazy media” or simply the media.
Agreed. The other candidate is rich Aspen guy Alex Keloff, but the last Democrat to actually win here was John Salazar, who was working class Hispanic from Alamosa.
If turnout today isn’t as high as expected, you can blame the Texas Republicans for it. Unconscionable and unacceptable. They’re so scared of losing control. I hope this makes them complacent seeing Democrats not get as high as a vote share in the primary, leading to their downfall in the general election when these people all vote again.
Per the Texas Democratic Party, nearly a third of Williamson and Dallas County voters are being turned away when they try to vote due to confusion over polling locations, caused by Republicans opting not to hold countywide unified Joint Primaries.
As far as I can tell, this whole confusion is that since it is Election Day and not early voting anymore, that voters are required to vote in their own precinct rather than at any voting center in the county.
I'm not sure why so many voters seem to have been confused by this, nor is it entirely clear to me why this hasn't been the case in past elections. The whole point of a voting precinct is that everyone who lives within its boundaries votes there, so that we know the election results for that particular geographic area. And especially in a densely populated urban county like Dallas County, no one is going to live more than a mile or two from their precinct's voting location, so there's really no excuse to not go there.
It's not that people can't vote in their own precinct, it's that people have become accustomed to being able to vote wherever. I don't know what the situation is in TX, but in DC, I've become used to looking at a list of polling locations and picking whatever's most convenient. Granted, in most cases, that's probably the correct precinct, but there are tons of reasons why it might not. Once municipalities started doing it this way, it intuitively made a lot of sense to me, so I get why voters would be confused if TX used to allow you to vote wherever and are suddenly changing back. There's no good reason to do it and I'm guessing any changes weren't well communicated.
It's possible the changes may not have been well communicated, but IMO any potential impact on turnout as a result of this change is grossly overestimated. The vast majority of people who are turned away from a precinct because it's not theirs are just going to drive to their specific precinct and vote there.
Yeah, I don't see the need for polling hours to be extended in TX -- and people were poorly informed. If there was a technological snafu or something like that, yes -- extend hours so that people can exercise their constitutional rights.
I'm sure it varies from state to state, but do voters not get a postcard or something from the election authority about when and where to vote? Elections Canada and Elections Ontario send us all registered voters a card with the name of our riding, the hours and days of voting, and the location of our advance poll, election day poll, and the returning office.
Are most of these retirements coming from GOP people that do some deal making with Democrats, actually do some constituent services and believe in some essential government programs, or are they coming from the more irrational wing as well? I know the members, but there have been so many retirements I haven't been able to keep score.
I love your list. Well done. I have called Joni Ernst's office and she actually helped me on a few small issues. On the other hand, Feenstra reportedly doesn't bring help back to his district. I could be wrong about that, because I don't live in IA-4, but great work. Thank you.
While the nation has its eye on today's primary elections in Texas, I am crossing my fingers that corrupt power broker Phil Berger loses his contested primary here in NC.
People know I DESPISE this man with a passion and if you look up what he's done to this state during the past 15 years of GOP state legislative control -- you'll hate him too.
Isn’t the guy running against him an ultra-MAGA right wing lunatic though?
Yes.
Unlike Berger, Page supports the state House budget as opposed to Berger's desire to eliminate the state tax entirely (which would put our state in a dire KS-like situation).
Plus, Berger only won re-election in 2024 by four points. In a blue wave election, a heavily damaged Berger or Page would be vulnerable to an upset flip in November.
I think Berger might be more vulnerable in a general election. I’m hoping for him for that reason alone.
That Assembly article I posted yesterday said that no matter the outcome today, Berger's political and financial capital took a big hit.
https://archive.ph/LJfdt
You don't throw $10 million into a state Senate primary race as an incumbent unless you're LOSING it.
Looks like you got your outcome, just about, according to the NC assembly website he lost by 2 votes.
When can we expect for key primary results to be announced today?
Depends on each state. The early votes are processed and released first in NC right after polls close, so I expect Cooper and Whatley to be announced as their primary winners around 7:35 p.m.-8 p.m. tonight.
I don't expect the primary results in TX to be announced when polls close there unless Crockett or Talarico win by a decisive amount just on the EV numbers (and less robust ED turnout today). Probably closer to midnight CST for that one.
Shock poll out of the UK from Sky News this morning showing the Greens in second place just behind Reform UK in the aftermath of the Greens' victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election. Labour has lost 73% of their supporters from the 2024 election.
Siri, what is the definition of PASOKifcation?
Reform UK: 23% (-1)*
Greens: 21% (+4)
Labour: 16% (-2)
Conservatives: 16% (-2)
Liberal Democrats: 14% (NC)
*(Change since last Sky News/YouGov poll)
https://news.sky.com/story/greens-overtake-labour-in-sensational-poll-13514420
A potential Green-LibDem coalition?
Greens + Lib Dems wouldn't even get close to sniffing a majority if it was them alone.
Even though the Greens leader is a former Lib Dem member?
I think eh is saying they're not numerically close to a majority, not that they wouldn't be willing to be in coalition together
Labour has to be included, but as the junior partner, with the Greens in the lead.
2029 is obviously milenia away in politics. But if this holds you'd see the two main parties essentially eaten by their left and right flanks respectively, with crazy and unpredictable consequences in the first past the post system.
What is the ideology of the Greens in the UK?
Progressive, left leaning
Kind of like our green party but obviously more powerful
Are they TERFy?
The UK Greens are strongly supportive of trans rights unlike every major political party in the UK.
I think SNP is (or was) supportive of trans rights, not sure if they count as major or not for you though, lol
The Lib Dems are also fairy supportive as far as I can tell
The party had a big row over the issue back in 2023. One of the co-leaders resigned over the party's pro Trans rights positions and "gender-critical" members claiming they were being forced out of the party. As far as I understand it, there remains some internal conflict within the party over the matter, though the official party line remains the most pro Trans of any party in Britain.
The U.S. Green Party is a foreign OP.
Green Party here is pro Putin. Nothing progressive.
I don't think it's a stretch to call Jill Stein a Russian asset (at worst, useful idiot at best), but I wouldn't go so far as to say that applied to all US Greens
I stopped supporting the US Green Party back in 2006, now 20 years ago, when I had just filled in my absentee ballot for California and realised that every single row office candidate had put some version of "investment advisor" down as their profession. (In California, candidates list there profession beside their name on the ballot.) This was the last straw for me and I finally saw the professional spoilers for what they were.
As Julius said below very leftie, but they're rhetorically more pragmatic than you'd expect for a Green party. Zack Polanski, their leader has said publicly immigration should be "fair and managed" and said you can care for the environment and still eat meat, drive a car and fly.
so unlike here, a legit party
It's kind of amazing how short sighted Labour's politics are right now.
They're trying to win over some of the conservative (small c) voters, but to do that they need to alienate some of their own voters. Problem is: their own voters have alternatives that are more robust than "don't vote", unlike here. The major advantage these parties hold is strategic voting and being the default for their side of the ideological spectrum. If they lose that, they can collapse quickly.
If this continues, Greens might become the new default-left party in the UK.
Are these NATIONAL numbers? If so, that is absolutely bonkers...
Yes. This is for the whole of UK. Maybe not Northern Ireland because they do their own thing out there.
https://www.wsmv.com/2026/03/03/middle-tn-astronaut-joins-marsha-blackburn-john-rose-among-list-candidates-replace-gov-bill-lee/
TN-Gov: Butch Wilmore, an astronaut who was stranded in space during the high-profile Starliner mission for 9 months, is in as a Republican.
UT Tyler has Crockett up 21 points.
Emerson Talarico up 5.
Slight disagreement there.
Also a YouGov poll came out.
half the pollsters are gonna have a lot of 'splainin' to do come tomorrow...
Honestly, I think pollsters don't have much experience in polling the Democratic primary electorate in a very diverse and the second most populated state so they are basically experimenting with different models and will see which turns out to be correct.
Agreed.
And I do not think 2024 modeling/assumptions will hold very often, either.
I think the composition (R/D/I) will be different. Bluer: more enthusiasm from Ds & D inclined Is. Some Rs staying home.
I think you will have more infrequent/1st time voters, and most of them will be blue-ish.
I think you will see the behavior of established voters shift blue a bit. Trump has lost ground amongst young voters, Latinos, and just about everywhere else. Some will switch, some will vote 3rd party.
And, lastly, I think there will be powerful anti-establishment, anti-incumbancy sentiment on both sides in primaries. The Empire will strike back in some instances, but for the most part this will benefit progressive challengers to more centrist electeds.
I think it was The Empire Strikes Back in 2024, but 2026 will be Return of the Jedi.
So 2020 was A New Hope?
Or an Old One?
I was using the Empire as the establishment on both sides. The AIPAC/3rd way types may capitalize on anti-incumbancy feelings to oust some more progressive officeholders (especially older ones, like, say Markey/Moulton is in MA), but forcthe most part it will go the other way.
FWIW, Moulton will lose, IMHO.
Exactly. 2026 midterms ain’t going to end the empire, but it’s going to give such a monumental setback that’ll eventually lead them to a total victory in the future. They knocked off the organization that had total control of the world because of fear. Once that was defeated and the rebel alliance grew strong enough, it led to total victory in the end. Tell me that doesn’t sound what’s hopefully going to happen with the exact setup of election years to compare to the films.
Even though we don’t know what happens in a future election, if Democrats win 2028, it’s a transition to the next trilogy of the story (either set, regardless of chronological order) even though those films probably won’t lineup at all so the similarities end there lol. My interpretation anyways fwiw.
Polling primaries is more difficult than general elections. It sounds like most Texas democrats like both Crockett and Talarico. That's a recipe for wild swings in polling results.
I think the divergence in polling is healthy, if anything. It means they're not herding.
There have been a surprising fourteen polls testing Crockett vs Talarico. They found: C+18, C+17, C+8, T+9, C+13, C+1, C+8, T+4, C+12, C+18, T+12, T+6, T+5, T+13. We'll know soon!
Notice that almost all of the T+ ones were the most recent
Do we have any polling on the republican primary for the Kansas gubernatorial election?
55% of the unaffiliated voters that participated early voted in the Democratic primaries here in North Carolina. And 65% of the early vote in the Berger v Page matchup has come from Rockingham County (Berger's district is conveniently gerrymandered between Rockingham and Guilford Counties).
https://www.alternet.org/north-carolina-primary/
and for those unfamiliar rockingham is the red county, guilford spliced into many districts is blue
I think someone plotted out. The UNAs participating in two major parties are geographically very different.
The rural/exurban UNAs are much more onto R primaries. Traditionally they are just softer Rs.
The city or suburbs within the big urban counties have a quite disproportionate UNAs choosing D ballots. Like in Wake it was something 10:1 of choosing D vs R ballots.
Excuse my ignorance. What does UNA stand for?
Unaffiliated/no party voters. UNA voters in NC can choose from an R or D primary ballot.
Thank you.
So UNA is the Carolinian translation of the name of the people that we call NPP (no party preference) voters in California. They used to be DTS (decline to state a party preference) but terminology changes. Thanks for the explanation.
Oh. Thanks!
As a matter of fact, UNAs can choose vote in any party primary as long as that party allows it.
I think D or R primaries are semi-closed, to only partisans or UNA choosing to participate. Any other voters would have to re-register to the party they wish to vote, on the spot during the early voting. There is no Election Day registration after the early voting ended.
"NEW:
@Axios
crunched the numbers. 30 (!) House Dems are facing at least one primary challenger who raised $100,000+ last yr.
Roughly a dozen have been out-raised.
In all, these races have a price tag of $64 million.
House Dems are not happy about it: "https://axios.com/2026/03/03/democrats-2026-midterms-house-primaries-jeffries
House Dems are ranting that the DCCC should use money to protect incumbents.
if the dccc starts playing in primaries they can kiss by 250 a month in donations goodbye, which is a drop in the bucket but I am donating to win a majority not donating to protect safe seat incumbents
If you do this I'd just ask you reroute to majority-makers directly who you like.
of course, marcy kaptur would be the beneficiary. I donate to other campaigns, but don't like giving before primaries so just giving to incumbent dems in tough seats at the moment
From the article and a link for those to read from archive. What this tells me is yeah, we’re going to waste a lot of money on primaries in blue seats, but it also shows an amount of grassroots energy in our base that’s been missing, similar to the tea party wave of 2010 which swept the GOP into a landslide midterm election victory. This is an unequivocal good thing for our party.
Larson saying “well I would’ve donated my $400k raised last cycle to flip seats” is a perfect example of just how out of touch and lazy our establishment blue seat reps have gotten. $400k raised over 2 years is a pathetic amount of fundraising, even for a safe blue seat, but now with Larson facing a tough primary, he’s anticipating raising $5m.
Well, why didn’t he raise that $5m for other Democrats before? If he can do it now, he could’ve done it then, but he didn’t. The entitlement attitude in our party that they own the seat no matter what has to end. Why is it only now that he and other Democrats decide to work hard in their campaigns instead of coasting to victory? This argument rings so incredibly hollow.
The weak link we have in our party isn’t the swing seats, it’s the dark blue ones where Trump gained the most ground in for 2024 and it’s why I’m wholeheartedly backing the primary challengers for almost every single race in upcoming nomination battles. Time to get people in these seats who are going to run hard every cycle, not just begin to run real campaigns only after they get a challenger and are worried about losing their seat.
https://archive.ph/pKcgJ
Flashback: Contrast that with the 2018 election cycle, in which progressives rode a wave of grassroots energy spurred by Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign two years earlier to make huge gains.
2018 was the year Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) unseated veteran Democratic incumbents.
But just half a dozen Democratic primary challengers ended 2017 having raised $76,000, the CPI-adjusted equivalent of $100,000 that year.
Fantastic post. I could not agree more.
Crap Dems in deep blue seats are the worst of both worlds. Thise seats are attractive tonsome folks BECAUSE it is essentially a lifetime appointment & they don't have to do much. Ride that gravy train.
I'm sorry, but if incumbents, who already have massive advantages winning reelection, are whining that the DCCC should be doing more to protect them rather than win the majority in this most crucial of elections, they deserve to lose. I understand the DCCC can't back primary challenges against controversial members, but these people are being unthinkably selfish. I hope people starting naming names, as I'd like to know who these idiots are.
Talarico up to 85% odds on Polymarket, Paxton at 82%, respectively.
I really think that’s overestimating Talarico, he’s the favorite but not to that extent
I bet like 60%
all that says is that he will win....not anything about margin
Sure, but I really don't think that he is anywhere near that much of a favorite to win. If I wasn't strongly against political gambling, I'd bet on Crockett winning with those odds.
In my brief stint as a political gambler (on predictit), I couldn't bear to gamble on outcomes I didn't want, lol
this would be true if it was truly about odds, but it's not. Elections aren't random chance. there are a lot of perceptible factors here and most of them would lead you to believe Talarico is going to win.
Plenty of polls still have Crockett ahead. I’m rooting for Talarico and I think he’ll win but the idea that he’s more likely to win his primary than Paxton is to win the Republican primary doesn’t seem to be grounded in much of anything.
well, what happened? Talarico won by a convincing amount and Paxton lost first place to Cornyn.
So there's that. The so-called polls were way off. Again.
https://cadem.org/open-letter-to-the-democratic-candidates-for-governor/
"If you do not have a viable path to make it to the General Election, do not file to place your name on the ballot for the Primary Election.
If you decide to file, be prepared to suspend your campaign and endorse another candidate on or before April 15th if your campaign cannot show meaningful progress towards winning the Primary Election in the coming weeks."
From the CA Dem chair
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan could have learned this early on before he decided to jump in the race.
But I guess Silicon Valley was calling!
this is the third time during his reign that I have wholeheartedly agreed with the party chair.
Such welcome news about Whitsett in the MI House. But don’t be surprised if Duggan chooses her for LG - despite her statement to the contrary. Hope she and her buddy Duggan have the same job come January 1st - unemployed former politician.
Ooh, I hadn't thought of that. But she also hasn't voted in six months, so I don't think she'd be an active campaigner regardless lol
Jon Hoffman: "Israel Hayom—owned by Miriam Adelson, the hawkish pro-Israel megadonor to both of Trump’s presidential campaigns—is now openly reporting that the strategy is to essentially collapse Iran into civil war and hope for the best."
https://x.com/Hoffman8Jon/status/2028896281695858706
Ah yes “Houthis but make them 1000x larger and better equipped” right next to the Hormuz is a brilliant strategy, 10/10 no notes
Don’t forget the massive refugee crisis that would happen in that scenario as well.
This has nothing to do with elections, but I still find it so bizarre how many rightwing idiots and enablers are now saying the exact same thing Democrats have been arguing for 10 years on social media. It’s a cult that doesn’t believe in facts.
https://x.com/ggreenwald/status/2028850761023607244
If -- as Trump again said last night -- MAGA means nothing more than featly to whatever Trump believes when he wakes up (even if it's the exact opposite of what he said he believed the day before), then it is, by definition, a cult, not a political movement.
That's why
@FmrRepMTG
has said there's a fundamental difference between MAGA (a cult of personality and leader-worship) and America First (a fixed set of ideological values).
https://x.com/LegendaryEnergy/status/2028848200342221025
I’ve figured out what makes Trump boomers so stupid: Their entire worldview is being fed to them thru the “left vs. right” lens of whatever biased broadcasting they’re listening to.
So if you bring them a fact, they just juxtapose it with some talking point they heard:
“pallets of cash huh?”
“O’Biden, huh?”
“Oh ya, it’s China huh!”
“Liberals huh!”
Literally the brain of an animal.
Right wing influencers openly revolting against MAGA’s “lie back and think of Mar a Lago” messaging nonsense certainly is germane to the midterms
Interesting point, but that last tweet has one word in there that 1) is a complete non-sequitur, not related at all to the rest of the tweet, and 2) involves a topic that is forbidden to discuss here.
Can you please remove or change that word?
My sincere apologies, I missed that word and you’re absolutely correct that it’s not allowed in discussion here. I’ve replaced the word with “biased” in the tweet as I think that’s the closest one I can come up with ,without running afoul of the rules. Thank you for quickly notifying me of that. If you or others have a different suggestion, feel free to lmk!
Pretty much on point but that last part mentioning “Zionist Media” really undermines the point…we (and I know this isn’t your own tweet) can just say “lazy media” or simply the media.
You're right, which is why dragonfire5004 edited their comment to remove that part.
The edit is appreciated, it probably happened right as I was leaving the comment…no pile-on of criticism intended from me 😀
https://www.aspendailynews.com/news/dwayne-romero-to-run-in-democratic-primary-for-congressional-seat/article_2d47ee7d-1908-4508-94e8-232efcebc702.html
CO-3: Businessman and former Aspen councilmember Dwayne Romero is challenging Rep. Jeff Hurd as a Democrat.
No more rich Aspen people, if dems want to win that district they should nominate someone from working class Pueblo or southern Colorado.
Agreed. The other candidate is rich Aspen guy Alex Keloff, but the last Democrat to actually win here was John Salazar, who was working class Hispanic from Alamosa.
Agreed, either that or someone from Grand Junction who can make inroads with the conservative-leaning voters there.
Someone from working class Pueblo or southern Colorado needs to step up, no one is stopping them
If turnout today isn’t as high as expected, you can blame the Texas Republicans for it. Unconscionable and unacceptable. They’re so scared of losing control. I hope this makes them complacent seeing Democrats not get as high as a vote share in the primary, leading to their downfall in the general election when these people all vote again.
https://x.com/andrebttx/status/2028893130473304477
Per the Texas Democratic Party, nearly a third of Williamson and Dallas County voters are being turned away when they try to vote due to confusion over polling locations, caused by Republicans opting not to hold countywide unified Joint Primaries.
As far as I can tell, this whole confusion is that since it is Election Day and not early voting anymore, that voters are required to vote in their own precinct rather than at any voting center in the county.
I'm not sure why so many voters seem to have been confused by this, nor is it entirely clear to me why this hasn't been the case in past elections. The whole point of a voting precinct is that everyone who lives within its boundaries votes there, so that we know the election results for that particular geographic area. And especially in a densely populated urban county like Dallas County, no one is going to live more than a mile or two from their precinct's voting location, so there's really no excuse to not go there.
It's not that people can't vote in their own precinct, it's that people have become accustomed to being able to vote wherever. I don't know what the situation is in TX, but in DC, I've become used to looking at a list of polling locations and picking whatever's most convenient. Granted, in most cases, that's probably the correct precinct, but there are tons of reasons why it might not. Once municipalities started doing it this way, it intuitively made a lot of sense to me, so I get why voters would be confused if TX used to allow you to vote wherever and are suddenly changing back. There's no good reason to do it and I'm guessing any changes weren't well communicated.
It's possible the changes may not have been well communicated, but IMO any potential impact on turnout as a result of this change is grossly overestimated. The vast majority of people who are turned away from a precinct because it's not theirs are just going to drive to their specific precinct and vote there.
Yeah, I don't see the need for polling hours to be extended in TX -- and people were poorly informed. If there was a technological snafu or something like that, yes -- extend hours so that people can exercise their constitutional rights.
I'm sure it varies from state to state, but do voters not get a postcard or something from the election authority about when and where to vote? Elections Canada and Elections Ontario send us all registered voters a card with the name of our riding, the hours and days of voting, and the location of our advance poll, election day poll, and the returning office.
In New Hampshire, I receive that, both from the local election authority and frequently from the NHDP/candidates' campaigns as well.
Not sure about any other state though.
No, instead of everyone voting at the same place in a precinct, there are separate voting locations for Democrats and Republicans within a precinct.
https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/vote/dallas-county-where-to-vote-election-day-issues-problems/287-d5d6ad97-fc44-42d9-afc1-e9b1221b13df
Are most of these retirements coming from GOP people that do some deal making with Democrats, actually do some constituent services and believe in some essential government programs, or are they coming from the more irrational wing as well? I know the members, but there have been so many retirements I haven't been able to keep score.
Bit of both
Correct me if I'm wrong on any of these
*Rational:*
Thom Tillis
Cynthia Lummis
Neal Dunn
Vern Buchanan
John Rose
Tom Tiffany
Ashley Hinson
Randy Feenstra
Morgan Luttrell
Michael McCaul
Jodey Arrington
Don Bacon
Dusty Johnson
Ryan Zinke
David Schweikert
*Irrational:*
Tommy Tuberville
Mitch McConnell
Joni Ernst
Elise Stefanik
Nancy Mace
Ralph Norman
Buddy Carter
Mike Collins
Byron Donalds
Barry Moore
Andy Barr
John James
Julia Letlow
Chip Roy
Troy Nehls
Harriet Hageman
Andy Biggs
I love your list. Well done. I have called Joni Ernst's office and she actually helped me on a few small issues. On the other hand, Feenstra reportedly doesn't bring help back to his district. I could be wrong about that, because I don't live in IA-4, but great work. Thank you.
i hate what he's done to the country, but mcconell is going to be replaced by someone worse, other than that agree 100% with the above
I don't think McConnell is irrational. He is just evil.
I don't agree with most of what McConnell has done, but he's one of the most rational Republicans.