In case anyone was waiting or wondering, 538 relaunched its model today and Harris starts out with a 58% chance of winning. Incidentally, they brought Fivey Fox and the "snake" chart back.
In case anyone was waiting or wondering, 538 relaunched its model today and Harris starts out with a 58% chance of winning. Incidentally, they brought Fivey Fox and the "snake" chart back.
Those both seem entirely reasonable. In recent years, Texas has been to the right of Florida. And even though the two states are supposedly heading in opposite directions, Florida has an abortion referendum on the ballot this year.
It’s also possible that 2022 was an outlier for FL and it’s not suddenly ruby red as lots of folks seem to believe. There have been so many tough losses in FL I think a lot of people want to write it off just to not have to be disappointed again.
The limited polling so far this year has shown Harris further behind in Texas than in Florida. That said, in recent years polling has mostly been too favorable for us in Florida, but not in Texas.
In case anyone was waiting or wondering, 538 relaunched its model today and Harris starts out with a 58% chance of winning. Incidentally, they brought Fivey Fox and the "snake" chart back.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Less than 1 in 100 chance that every state votes the same as 2020?
And Florida is to the left of Texas for some reason?
Those both seem entirely reasonable. In recent years, Texas has been to the right of Florida. And even though the two states are supposedly heading in opposite directions, Florida has an abortion referendum on the ballot this year.
It’s also possible that 2022 was an outlier for FL and it’s not suddenly ruby red as lots of folks seem to believe. There have been so many tough losses in FL I think a lot of people want to write it off just to not have to be disappointed again.
The limited polling so far this year has shown Harris further behind in Texas than in Florida. That said, in recent years polling has mostly been too favorable for us in Florida, but not in Texas.