Regarding the New Hampshire special election, those three towns are in Carroll County, the most ancestrally Republican part of the state. Wolfeboro is the largest of the three, and is a rare Trump -> Harris town (though both by very narrow margins). Neighboring Tuftonboro still leans Republican but is trending Democratic very slowly. Ossipee is the most Republican of the three towns, a long town that contains no fewer than 15 miles of Route 16 (the major north-south road in the eastern part of New Hampshire).
Boudman, the Democrat, probably needs to get 55% of the vote in Wolfeboro and come very close in Tuftonboro in order for them to outvote Ossipee enough for her to win. A Democratic victory here would be a major upset.
As someone else pointed out yesterday, former Democratic NC Court of Appeals justice Chris Brook is running for one of three GOP-held seats on the NC Supreme Court up in 2028. Brook was originally appointed to the Court of Appeals by former governor Roy Cooper in 2019 and lost to the infamous Jefferson Griffin for a full term in 2020.
Hope Allegra Collins’s exit from public life is brief and that she runs for one of the seats. Toby Hampson will also only be 53 in 2028. He’d be a natural choice if he wins reelection this year.
Hampson would be a good candidate for the 2028 NC Supreme Court race. And it would allow Gov Stein to appoint a Democratic successor to fill the remainder of his Court of Appeals term if he prevailed.
I am curious if Griffin will run for re-election to his Court of Appeals seat in 2028 or try running for the NC Supreme Court again (if Newby declines to run again). I hope voters vote his ass out again.
I could be wrong, but hasn't Newby already said he's not seeking reelection? He would have to retire due to age less than 3 years into his term if reelected.
Here's a short list of some Democrats that IMO might have a shot of making the U.S. Senate race in Oklahoma somewhat competitive:
Best would definitely be former Gov. Brad Henry, then Mayor of Tulsa Monroe Nichols, former Rep. Kendra Horn, Cherokee Nation Chief Chuck Hoskin, former Superintendent Joy Hofmeister, Oklahoma AFL-CIO president Forrest Bennett, and former Insurance Commissioner Kim Holland.
I think in a good year for Democrats, Henry, Nichols, or Hoskin could hold the Republican nominee, especially if they're bruised by a difficult primary fight, to like... 55%? maybe better, even. Horn held Mullin to 61%, and that was a Biden midterm without too horrible a primary fight (Mullin got 43.5% to his next closest competitor, Shannon,'s 17.5%, with 13 candidates on the ballot). so if we got one of these, it might work
Chuck Hoskin would be an interesting candidate as he worked to raise the minimum wage for Cherokee Nation tribe members working within the tribe and its businesses before he was even inaugurated. The original target was $15/hour by 2025.
FL-27: Longtime Miami TV news anchor Elliot Rodriguez is in. As a Cuban-American with a recognizable name locally, he's seen as a top recruit for this seat.
He does still have a primary to get through, but he seems like a great choice for Democrats to elect to Congress, and he's hitting all the right notes.
Former associate, whatever. Was intimately involved in the Trump-Ukraine scandal that caused the first impeachment. Not inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.
"Safe" in this context does not mean that there's zero chance of the seat flipping. Rather it means that, barring unforeseen events or change in circumstances, a victory for the other party is highly unlikely. Perhaps the Iran War is such and unforeseen event, but you would need, you know, actual data before reranking seats. We will continue to have special elections and polls. If your theory is correct, you would start seeing Republicans lose Trump +30 seats. Then The Downballot and other prognosticators would start lowering their ratings.
Allison Ziogas, an electrician and union organizer, is in as a left Dem. She has the backing of Mamdani’s advisor Morris Katz.
I have no faith she’ll succeed but I’m glad someone is running here at least. (Unfortunately this probably means ex-NYC Councilman Justin Brannan said no - he has a left-adjacent profile himself.)
“We spoke w/almost a dozen former Krishnamoorthi staffers who described a nearly round-the-clock fundraising operation, working 80 or 100 hours a week, in which some workers burned out after only a few months.”
Regarding the New Hampshire special election, those three towns are in Carroll County, the most ancestrally Republican part of the state. Wolfeboro is the largest of the three, and is a rare Trump -> Harris town (though both by very narrow margins). Neighboring Tuftonboro still leans Republican but is trending Democratic very slowly. Ossipee is the most Republican of the three towns, a long town that contains no fewer than 15 miles of Route 16 (the major north-south road in the eastern part of New Hampshire).
Boudman, the Democrat, probably needs to get 55% of the vote in Wolfeboro and come very close in Tuftonboro in order for them to outvote Ossipee enough for her to win. A Democratic victory here would be a major upset.
MD-5: That poll result is pretty embarrassing for a candidate who has the support of the 40-year incumbent (Boafo).
As someone else pointed out yesterday, former Democratic NC Court of Appeals justice Chris Brook is running for one of three GOP-held seats on the NC Supreme Court up in 2028. Brook was originally appointed to the Court of Appeals by former governor Roy Cooper in 2019 and lost to the infamous Jefferson Griffin for a full term in 2020.
https://nitter.net/BryanRAnderson/status/2031032884270710819
He is seeking to either challenge incumbent Tamara Barringer or nepo baby Phil Berger Jr. Wonder who will challenge the awful Paul Newby.
Hope Allegra Collins’s exit from public life is brief and that she runs for one of the seats. Toby Hampson will also only be 53 in 2028. He’d be a natural choice if he wins reelection this year.
Hampson would be a good candidate for the 2028 NC Supreme Court race. And it would allow Gov Stein to appoint a Democratic successor to fill the remainder of his Court of Appeals term if he prevailed.
I am curious if Griffin will run for re-election to his Court of Appeals seat in 2028 or try running for the NC Supreme Court again (if Newby declines to run again). I hope voters vote his ass out again.
I could be wrong, but hasn't Newby already said he's not seeking reelection? He would have to retire due to age less than 3 years into his term if reelected.
He hasn't made it official, but the ProPublica article about his shenanigans implies that he is. Maybe he'll announce it after the November midterms.
Here's a short list of some Democrats that IMO might have a shot of making the U.S. Senate race in Oklahoma somewhat competitive:
Best would definitely be former Gov. Brad Henry, then Mayor of Tulsa Monroe Nichols, former Rep. Kendra Horn, Cherokee Nation Chief Chuck Hoskin, former Superintendent Joy Hofmeister, Oklahoma AFL-CIO president Forrest Bennett, and former Insurance Commissioner Kim Holland.
Henry could also run for the 5th if Bice goes for Senate. Or Horn again.
Thanks for the list! What margin would you consider somewhat competitive?
I think in a good year for Democrats, Henry, Nichols, or Hoskin could hold the Republican nominee, especially if they're bruised by a difficult primary fight, to like... 55%? maybe better, even. Horn held Mullin to 61%, and that was a Biden midterm without too horrible a primary fight (Mullin got 43.5% to his next closest competitor, Shannon,'s 17.5%, with 13 candidates on the ballot). so if we got one of these, it might work
Chuck Hoskin would be an interesting candidate as he worked to raise the minimum wage for Cherokee Nation tribe members working within the tribe and its businesses before he was even inaugurated. The original target was $15/hour by 2025.
https://anadisgoi.com/index.php/businesses-stories/cherokee-nation-announces-wage-increase-for-tribal-and-business-employees
FL-27: Longtime Miami TV news anchor Elliot Rodriguez is in. As a Cuban-American with a recognizable name locally, he's seen as a top recruit for this seat.
https://x.com/ERodforCongress/status/2031256057515852126
He does still have a primary to get through, but he seems like a great choice for Democrats to elect to Congress, and he's hitting all the right notes.
A little old, but a good recruit nonetheless. I don't mind Robin Peguero but don't know enough about either.
Yeah, born in 1956.
Not as old as Donna Shalala when she won this seat in 2018!
How old was she?
Is this the same seat where Giuliani's guy is running? Would definitely prefer Rodriguez over that.
I don’t think he’s “Rudy Giuliani’s guy” any longer.
Former associate, whatever. Was intimately involved in the Trump-Ukraine scandal that caused the first impeachment. Not inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Agreed. Fully.
By November no Republican will be safe. Down Ballot could help by not calling districts or states as safe for Republicans.
The Downballot is very good at being realistic and pragmatic.
That's obviously false. Wyoming-Sen is safe, for example.
If the Democrats are winning Wyoming, then we're getting 67 Senate seats and Trump is getting impeached and removed from office.
Dream big.
Over optimism is as bad as undue pessimism.
"Safe" in this context does not mean that there's zero chance of the seat flipping. Rather it means that, barring unforeseen events or change in circumstances, a victory for the other party is highly unlikely. Perhaps the Iran War is such and unforeseen event, but you would need, you know, actual data before reranking seats. We will continue to have special elections and polls. If your theory is correct, you would start seeing Republicans lose Trump +30 seats. Then The Downballot and other prognosticators would start lowering their ratings.
NY-11:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/nyregion/ziogas-malliotakis-midterms.html
Allison Ziogas, an electrician and union organizer, is in as a left Dem. She has the backing of Mamdani’s advisor Morris Katz.
I have no faith she’ll succeed but I’m glad someone is running here at least. (Unfortunately this probably means ex-NYC Councilman Justin Brannan said no - he has a left-adjacent profile himself.)
US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi raises millions for Illinois Senate bid as fundraising draws scrutiny
https://archive.ph/CQDBf
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/03/10/raja-krishnamoorthi-fundraising-illinois-senate/
This is insane.
“We spoke w/almost a dozen former Krishnamoorthi staffers who described a nearly round-the-clock fundraising operation, working 80 or 100 hours a week, in which some workers burned out after only a few months.”
https://x.com/LeighGiangreco/status/2031376933091508538