Regarding the New Hampshire special election, those three towns are in Carroll County, the most ancestrally Republican part of the state. Wolfeboro is the largest of the three, and is a rare Trump -> Harris town (though both by very narrow margins). Neighboring Tuftonboro still leans Republican but is trending Democratic very slowly. Ossipee is the most Republican of the three towns, a long town that contains no fewer than 15 miles of Route 16 (the major north-south road in the eastern part of New Hampshire).
Boudman, the Democrat, probably needs to get 55% of the vote in Wolfeboro and come very close in Tuftonboro in order for them to outvote Ossipee enough for her to win. A Democratic victory here would be a major upset.
Though it's not necessarily all that great for Baker, either, as he's been on the ballot every four years since 1994, for four different offices (state House, county executive, governor, and now Congress.)
As someone else pointed out yesterday, former Democratic NC Court of Appeals justice Chris Brook is running for one of three GOP-held seats on the NC Supreme Court up in 2028. Brook was originally appointed to the Court of Appeals by former governor Roy Cooper in 2019 and lost to the infamous Jefferson Griffin for a full term in 2020.
Hope Allegra Collins’s exit from public life is brief and that she runs for one of the seats. Toby Hampson will also only be 53 in 2028. He’d be a natural choice if he wins reelection this year.
Hampson would be a good candidate for the 2028 NC Supreme Court race. And it would allow Gov Stein to appoint a Democratic successor to fill the remainder of his Court of Appeals term if he prevailed.
I am curious if Griffin will run for re-election to his Court of Appeals seat in 2028 or try running for the NC Supreme Court again (if Newby declines to run again). I hope voters vote his ass out again.
I could be wrong, but hasn't Newby already said he's not seeking reelection? He would have to retire due to age less than 3 years into his term if reelected.
former head of the nc aclu. He spoke at my accepted students day at carolina law and was the main reason I decided to attend, rather than stay in the lovely northeast for school.
Here's a short list of some Democrats that IMO might have a shot of making the U.S. Senate race in Oklahoma somewhat competitive:
Best would definitely be former Gov. Brad Henry, then Mayor of Tulsa Monroe Nichols, former Rep. Kendra Horn, Cherokee Nation Chief Chuck Hoskin, former Superintendent Joy Hofmeister, Oklahoma AFL-CIO president Forrest Bennett, and former Insurance Commissioner Kim Holland.
Definitely possible. Prior to this i was hoping for a Horn rerun in the 5th, but i think if we can't get Nichols/Henry/Hoskin Horn would work great for Senate
I think in a good year for Democrats, Henry, Nichols, or Hoskin could hold the Republican nominee, especially if they're bruised by a difficult primary fight, to like... 55%? maybe better, even. Horn held Mullin to 61%, and that was a Biden midterm without too horrible a primary fight (Mullin got 43.5% to his next closest competitor, Shannon,'s 17.5%, with 13 candidates on the ballot). so if we got one of these, it might work
Chuck Hoskin would be an interesting candidate as he worked to raise the minimum wage for Cherokee Nation tribe members working within the tribe and its businesses before he was even inaugurated. The original target was $15/hour by 2025.
FL-27: Longtime Miami TV news anchor Elliot Rodriguez is in. As a Cuban-American with a recognizable name locally, he's seen as a top recruit for this seat.
He does still have a primary to get through, but he seems like a great choice for Democrats to elect to Congress, and he's hitting all the right notes.
Yes. Shalala also served as HHS Secretary during President Clinton's entire presidency although older than Mike Espy, who served as Clinton's first Agriculture Secretary from 1993-1994.
BOLD PAC (CHC campaign arm) immediately came out with a press release maintaining its endorsement of Peguero. I think a bit of an odd decision unless they have some strong reason they feel Rodriguez has some vulnerabilities? They could have just kept maintaining a generic endorsement without the need to reinforce.
Former associate, whatever. Was intimately involved in the Trump-Ukraine scandal that caused the first impeachment. Not inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.
I follow his son Aaron Parnas. He's a progressive independent journalist who used to be a Republican but then he grew up and experienced actual life challenges, which made him progressive. He fully disavows his father's actions and prefers not to have his work associated with him.
The father may have also undergone a similar transformation, but I suspect he just wants to feel important again.
Sen. Harris lived into his 90s. He passed away in late 2024. His last of many books was called Report from a Last Survivor, about his experiences in politics and life in the mid-20th century to almost now. Later in life he moved to New Mexico and taught at UNM in Alburquerque.
"Safe" in this context does not mean that there's zero chance of the seat flipping. Rather it means that, barring unforeseen events or change in circumstances, a victory for the other party is highly unlikely. Perhaps the Iran War is such and unforeseen event, but you would need, you know, actual data before reranking seats. We will continue to have special elections and polls. If your theory is correct, you would start seeing Republicans lose Trump +30 seats. Then The Downballot and other prognosticators would start lowering their ratings.
This is silliness and not particularly useful for a site focused on clear-eyed evaluation of elections. There are definitely seats that are typically out of reach for us that we will be competitive in this year, but there are still plenty of seats that are in the "no chance" category too.
Allison Ziogas, an electrician and union organizer, is in as a left Dem. She has the backing of Mamdani’s advisor Morris Katz.
I have no faith she’ll succeed but I’m glad someone is running here at least. (Unfortunately this probably means ex-NYC Councilman Justin Brannan said no - he has a left-adjacent profile himself.)
“We spoke w/almost a dozen former Krishnamoorthi staffers who described a nearly round-the-clock fundraising operation, working 80 or 100 hours a week, in which some workers burned out after only a few months.”
Not surprising in the slightest. For a while, I worked at campaign organizations in the DC area and every time I went to look for a job, he was literally always hiring new finance associates. For context, I got my first DC job in 2019, so he's been preparing for this Senate bid for a while.
Sounds like he may become a Senator who is hyper-focused on fundraising and pleasing his donors. Kelly and Stratton are likely splitting a similar pool of voters, to Raja's benefit, and neither seems likely to drop out. We may be replacing one unreliable moderate with another, in blue, blue Illinois.
So many primaries in Illinois have good progressives up against crypto-, AI-, and AIPAC-backed moderates (and/or felons). These primaries are going to determine what kind of opposition party we have for the foreseeable future, so hopefully we get the people who are needed in this moment.
May have been the slip of a tongue here (reedited my comment) but what I'm referring to is the amount of time during the week members of Congress spend time fundraising. It's insane considering the amount of time they spend on the floor making speeches, having hearings and meeting in committees. Hearing 80-100 hours per week fundraising by staffers makes me only more concerned if Krishnamoorthi becomes Senator.
On the other hand, you really can't put Krishnamoorthi on the spot for working with the system the way it is until it's reformed.
I think you can call him out. It's one thing to spend most of your time fundraising for your next election; it's another to spend an exorbitant amount of time fundraising for a hypothetical election years in the future. It calls into question whether his commitment is to his constituents or to whatever promotion he's eyeing next.
He's definitely going to try to make other people believe he'd be a good Cabinet secretary and have his grunts keep throwing his name out for governor every four years lol
True, but as others pointed out, there are always steps up that can be taken. Whether it's governor, cabinet, Senate leadership positions, etc., something tells me he's not going to pivot to giving his constituents the focus they deserve once he wins this promotion. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, though.
Like many other districts nationwide, if Republicans couldn't win it in 2024 then they ain't getting it this year, which Prempah probably recognised when he dropped out.
For sure, I’m not at all implying it’s in play, just that it’s good any GOP dollars will be wasted on the primary even if I think it won’t matter in the slightest for the general election.
I didn't see this published here but should be worth noting that former State Rep. James Byrd is the first official Democratic Senate Candidate making a run in this race. He's argued Wyoming isn't a red state but the odds are certainly against him considering how much influence the GOP has in the state.
Of course, Dave Freudenthal was Governor of WY from 2003-2011, before Matt Mead replaced him in 2011.
I posted the news in a comment a week or two ago, but it’s always good to run people for races everywhere. Hopefully he can hit 35-40% and drag some downballot districts over the line for our party. We need to grow from the bottom up and credible candidates at the top help to do just that.
Agree with what you're saying. WY typically doesn't generate headlines unless it's in the GOP primary process such as Liz Cheney being primaried by Harriet Hageman.
NEW polling data on Trump voters: Overall 15% now disapprove of his job performance, including 19% of Hispanics, 22% of young voters, and 33% of Black 2024 Trump voters.
Affordability voters have shifted left on Trump and the House generic ballot:
This, combined with whatever will become of low-propensity Trump voters in a post-Trump climate, is why anyone who says they know what will happen in 2028 is completely full of it.
"Murray said the electorate’s growing diversity alone could tip the 2026 outcome. If all the major racial groups vote as they did in 2018 but compose their current shares of the electorate, Talarico would win the Senate race, he has calculated. “If you can just perform at that level, you are very competitive"."
"But even during these lean years for Democrats, Texas has been reshaped by the same tectonic economic and demographic forces that have boosted the party in other Sun Belt states. One is growing racial diversity: From 2000 to 2024, when Texas added more than 10.4 million residents, people of color accounted for 92% of that growth, according to the Equity Research Institute at the University of Southern California.
Another is increasing urbanization: The state’s four largest metro areas —Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, Austin and San Antonio — accounted for more than 80% of the state’s population and job growth since 2000, according to analysis by Richard Murray, a senior research associate at the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs.
This combination of diversification and improved performance in growing metros is the same formula that allowed Democrats to flip Colorado and Virginia blue after 2000, and more recently has allowed them to compete more effectively in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina."
This phrase “accounted for more than 80% of the state’s population and job growth” is a bit ambiguous here.
The four large metros count for ~ 65% of the state’s population, but way more than 80% of the GROWTH of the population. As phrased, the quoted statement has double meanings.
The overlooked demographic trend in the South is that young white voters, especially urban and college educated white voters, are much more likely to vote Democratic than their elders. This is another trend to watch in Texas.
I think nearly all would’ve died and/or switched parties by now. At least the ones that remember the Civil Rights era. It depends on where you draw the line and how you define Dixiecrats. “MAGA Harris voters” to me indicates some people might just be trolling pollsters.
Dixiecrats weren't fully wiped out in congress until 2010. So it isn't like its been 60 years, it's been 16. Sure, a lot of those former Dixiecrats no longer identify with the Democratic Party, a small portion of them certainly do. My guess is thats where the lion's share of the 3% comes from.
These polls are kinda meaningless if the mid to high 40's of the population is supporting MAGA candidates. They don't want the label but the like the policies.
Matt Mahan's PAC just received a $1 million donation from Paul Buchheit, the creator of Gmail.
Meanwhile, in the City of San Jose the efforts of homeless housing are a real mess. While Mahan is running for Governor and getting absolutely zero traction besides Silicon Valley donations, there's a big problem in preferrential treatment over who gets housing. This is causing tensions with the homeless and police.
Clearly Mahan is not focused enough on the job as Mayor.
The city appears to be giving preferential treatment to homeless residents living in large encampments like Columbus Park and the reestablished Jungle in East San Jose, when it comes to outreach and offers of temporary housing. The fallout from the city bypassing offers of housing to people living in smaller camps could result in longer periods of homelessness, leading to mental and physical issues, advocates said.
While the city prepares to clear the Jungle with promises of housing for the roughly 100 people living there, homeless people encamped near The Plant shopping center in South San Jose have been ignored and even arrested.
Homeless residents said they have been traumatized by recent encounters with the San Jose Police Department. The city swept an encampment there in January, but some people returned and set up a new camp nearby. When San José Spotlight spoke to homeless residents last week, they were preparing to be swept again with nowhere to go. They said they have received no offers of housing.
“It really sucks, because it’s like, where do I go? Where’s the help?” Mario Nogueras, a homeless resident living near the shopping center, told San José Spotlight.
Sarah Fields, spokesperson for the San Jose Housing Department, told San José Spotlight while the city has contracted with nonprofit People Assisting the Homeless (PATH) for outreach, the railway near The Plant where homeless people have encamped is under Union Pacific Railroad’s jurisdiction and outreach workers aren’t sent there.
Nogueras said police arrested him for trespassing, as well as other people, during a sweep on Jan. 15. He said police showed up with no advance notice, handcuffed him and others and did not allow him to take his backpack, with his insulin medicine inside.
I think the Iran drama (and the ensuing oil prices) will cause the GOP to lose the Senate. Especially with that white supremacist Hedgseth shooting his GD mouth off.
and the crimes against humanity and wars of aggression charges are writing themselves. there has to be accountability, we cannot repeat the mistakes of our party post civl war, post bush admin, post j6 insurrection etc.
The problem with manufacturing consent is it has to actually still be manufactured. YOLOing into a severe war and then being surprised that it’s not over because you took out the Ayatollah is nowhere even close to the groundwork laid with the public for even Iraq ‘03, which was met with some hesitation even then. But these people are products of the Fox/podcast bubble and really believe their own press. The last week has been a rude awakening for them I’m sure and it’s going to get worse
From Politico: "The California Democratic Party is launching its own public governor’s poll — an unusual step that shows it is keeping up the pressure on Democratic candidates to avoid an embarrassing lockout in the top-two primary. . . . Party chair Rusty Hicks says the California Voter Index will offer a rolling snapshot of the state of the race until ballots are dropped in early May. The poll will debut on March 24 with a baseline poll with a 2,000 person sample and follow every 7-10 days with a 1,200 person tracking poll."
I think it will just lead to more pressure on candidates who are pulling poorly to drop out. Too late to get off the ballot but dropping out still should help.
Much of the field is already delusional and/or selfish enough to think they can win with the current data out there. Adding one more rolling poll isn't going to cut do squat.
The party should get the big names to start consolidating behind one or two people with endorsements. With the current polling that should be Swalwell first, Porter second.
I'm a party caucus chair and I have NO IDEA why the party is wasting, I mean spending, its money this way. In fact, after this was announced Betty Three sent yet another fundraising email headed "I'm not dropping out."
Regarding the New Hampshire special election, those three towns are in Carroll County, the most ancestrally Republican part of the state. Wolfeboro is the largest of the three, and is a rare Trump -> Harris town (though both by very narrow margins). Neighboring Tuftonboro still leans Republican but is trending Democratic very slowly. Ossipee is the most Republican of the three towns, a long town that contains no fewer than 15 miles of Route 16 (the major north-south road in the eastern part of New Hampshire).
Boudman, the Democrat, probably needs to get 55% of the vote in Wolfeboro and come very close in Tuftonboro in order for them to outvote Ossipee enough for her to win. A Democratic victory here would be a major upset.
MD-5: That poll result is pretty embarrassing for a candidate who has the support of the 40-year incumbent (Boafo).
Though it's not necessarily all that great for Baker, either, as he's been on the ballot every four years since 1994, for four different offices (state House, county executive, governor, and now Congress.)
Yeah he's this close to being a perennial candidate, if it wasn't for the fact that he occasionally wins.
As someone else pointed out yesterday, former Democratic NC Court of Appeals justice Chris Brook is running for one of three GOP-held seats on the NC Supreme Court up in 2028. Brook was originally appointed to the Court of Appeals by former governor Roy Cooper in 2019 and lost to the infamous Jefferson Griffin for a full term in 2020.
https://nitter.net/BryanRAnderson/status/2031032884270710819
He is seeking to either challenge incumbent Tamara Barringer or nepo baby Phil Berger Jr. Wonder who will challenge the awful Paul Newby.
Hope Allegra Collins’s exit from public life is brief and that she runs for one of the seats. Toby Hampson will also only be 53 in 2028. He’d be a natural choice if he wins reelection this year.
Hampson would be a good candidate for the 2028 NC Supreme Court race. And it would allow Gov Stein to appoint a Democratic successor to fill the remainder of his Court of Appeals term if he prevailed.
I am curious if Griffin will run for re-election to his Court of Appeals seat in 2028 or try running for the NC Supreme Court again (if Newby declines to run again). I hope voters vote his ass out again.
I could be wrong, but hasn't Newby already said he's not seeking reelection? He would have to retire due to age less than 3 years into his term if reelected.
He hasn't made it official, but the ProPublica article about his shenanigans implies that he is. Maybe he'll announce it after the November midterms.
former head of the nc aclu. He spoke at my accepted students day at carolina law and was the main reason I decided to attend, rather than stay in the lovely northeast for school.
That's great. He, Riggs and Earls are why we need more voting rights and small claims attorneys in our judiciary, rather than GOP-aligned prosecutors.
I’m pretty sure that newby can’t run again due to age limits
It's not that he can't run, but if he won reelection he'd have to resign on May 31, 2031, less than three years into the term.
Here's a short list of some Democrats that IMO might have a shot of making the U.S. Senate race in Oklahoma somewhat competitive:
Best would definitely be former Gov. Brad Henry, then Mayor of Tulsa Monroe Nichols, former Rep. Kendra Horn, Cherokee Nation Chief Chuck Hoskin, former Superintendent Joy Hofmeister, Oklahoma AFL-CIO president Forrest Bennett, and former Insurance Commissioner Kim Holland.
Henry could also run for the 5th if Bice goes for Senate. Or Horn again.
Definitely possible. Prior to this i was hoping for a Horn rerun in the 5th, but i think if we can't get Nichols/Henry/Hoskin Horn would work great for Senate
Thanks for the list! What margin would you consider somewhat competitive?
I think in a good year for Democrats, Henry, Nichols, or Hoskin could hold the Republican nominee, especially if they're bruised by a difficult primary fight, to like... 55%? maybe better, even. Horn held Mullin to 61%, and that was a Biden midterm without too horrible a primary fight (Mullin got 43.5% to his next closest competitor, Shannon,'s 17.5%, with 13 candidates on the ballot). so if we got one of these, it might work
Chuck Hoskin would be an interesting candidate as he worked to raise the minimum wage for Cherokee Nation tribe members working within the tribe and its businesses before he was even inaugurated. The original target was $15/hour by 2025.
https://anadisgoi.com/index.php/businesses-stories/cherokee-nation-announces-wage-increase-for-tribal-and-business-employees
Oh that sounds effective!
FL-27: Longtime Miami TV news anchor Elliot Rodriguez is in. As a Cuban-American with a recognizable name locally, he's seen as a top recruit for this seat.
https://x.com/ERodforCongress/status/2031256057515852126
He does still have a primary to get through, but he seems like a great choice for Democrats to elect to Congress, and he's hitting all the right notes.
A little old, but a good recruit nonetheless. I don't mind Robin Peguero but don't know enough about either.
Yeah, born in 1956.
Not as old as Donna Shalala when she won this seat in 2018!
How old was she?
I believe she was 78.
Wow!
Yes. Shalala also served as HHS Secretary during President Clinton's entire presidency although older than Mike Espy, who served as Clinton's first Agriculture Secretary from 1993-1994.
BOLD PAC (CHC campaign arm) immediately came out with a press release maintaining its endorsement of Peguero. I think a bit of an odd decision unless they have some strong reason they feel Rodriguez has some vulnerabilities? They could have just kept maintaining a generic endorsement without the need to reinforce.
https://www.boldpac.com/chc-bold-pac-endorsed-candidate-robin-peguero-surges-in-floridas-27th-congressional-district
Is this the same seat where Giuliani's guy is running? Would definitely prefer Rodriguez over that.
I don’t think he’s “Rudy Giuliani’s guy” any longer.
Former associate, whatever. Was intimately involved in the Trump-Ukraine scandal that caused the first impeachment. Not inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Agreed. Fully.
I follow his son Aaron Parnas. He's a progressive independent journalist who used to be a Republican but then he grew up and experienced actual life challenges, which made him progressive. He fully disavows his father's actions and prefers not to have his work associated with him.
The father may have also undergone a similar transformation, but I suspect he just wants to feel important again.
I had no idea those two were related, I thought the same surname was purely coincidental!
By November no Republican will be safe. Down Ballot could help by not calling districts or states as safe for Republicans.
The Downballot is very good at being realistic and pragmatic.
That's obviously false. Wyoming-Sen is safe, for example.
If the Democrats are winning Wyoming, then we're getting 67 Senate seats and Trump is getting impeached and removed from office.
Dream big.
If it’s so safe, how did Gale McGee get re-elected in 1970? Checkmate!
(Sarcasm)
So then we should run Zombie Gale McGee for WY-Sen and Zombie Fred Harris for OK-Sen maybe... /s
I was thinking of zombie Joseph O’Mahoney actually.
I also didn’t realize that Fred Harris was dead/zombie.
Zombie James Exon could be good too. He got 75% of the vote or so in the 1978 Nebraska senate race.
Sen. Harris lived into his 90s. He passed away in late 2024. His last of many books was called Report from a Last Survivor, about his experiences in politics and life in the mid-20th century to almost now. Later in life he moved to New Mexico and taught at UNM in Alburquerque.
Over optimism is as bad as undue pessimism.
"Safe" in this context does not mean that there's zero chance of the seat flipping. Rather it means that, barring unforeseen events or change in circumstances, a victory for the other party is highly unlikely. Perhaps the Iran War is such and unforeseen event, but you would need, you know, actual data before reranking seats. We will continue to have special elections and polls. If your theory is correct, you would start seeing Republicans lose Trump +30 seats. Then The Downballot and other prognosticators would start lowering their ratings.
This is silliness and not particularly useful for a site focused on clear-eyed evaluation of elections. There are definitely seats that are typically out of reach for us that we will be competitive in this year, but there are still plenty of seats that are in the "no chance" category too.
NY-11:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/nyregion/ziogas-malliotakis-midterms.html
Allison Ziogas, an electrician and union organizer, is in as a left Dem. She has the backing of Mamdani’s advisor Morris Katz.
I have no faith she’ll succeed but I’m glad someone is running here at least. (Unfortunately this probably means ex-NYC Councilman Justin Brannan said no - he has a left-adjacent profile himself.)
US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi raises millions for Illinois Senate bid as fundraising draws scrutiny
https://archive.ph/CQDBf
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/03/10/raja-krishnamoorthi-fundraising-illinois-senate/
This is insane.
“We spoke w/almost a dozen former Krishnamoorthi staffers who described a nearly round-the-clock fundraising operation, working 80 or 100 hours a week, in which some workers burned out after only a few months.”
https://x.com/LeighGiangreco/status/2031376933091508538
This lines up with previous accounts I've heard of Raja's campaign operation.
Not surprising in the slightest. For a while, I worked at campaign organizations in the DC area and every time I went to look for a job, he was literally always hiring new finance associates. For context, I got my first DC job in 2019, so he's been preparing for this Senate bid for a while.
Crypto Man doesn't have enough?
Sounds like he may become a Senator who is hyper-focused on fundraising and pleasing his donors. Kelly and Stratton are likely splitting a similar pool of voters, to Raja's benefit, and neither seems likely to drop out. We may be replacing one unreliable moderate with another, in blue, blue Illinois.
So many primaries in Illinois have good progressives up against crypto-, AI-, and AIPAC-backed moderates (and/or felons). These primaries are going to determine what kind of opposition party we have for the foreseeable future, so hopefully we get the people who are needed in this moment.
"Sounds like he may become a Senator who is hyper-focused on fundraising and pleasing his donors."
So, sounds like a Senator.
There are many good Senators, both centrists and progressives, who care more about ideology than fundraising.
Maybe we should name them. I like Sheldon Whitehouse, for example, but I have no idea how much time he devotes to fundraising.
Sure, or any politician. But clearly some Senators are more focused on donors than others.
Primary is a week from today, no way for either to drop out with a meaningful impact now.
This is the kind of crap that members of Congress do in getting more focused on donors when they should be working to serve constituents.
We ought to really push to get the dreadful Citizens United decision overturned.
Fundraising pleases donors?
May have been the slip of a tongue here (reedited my comment) but what I'm referring to is the amount of time during the week members of Congress spend time fundraising. It's insane considering the amount of time they spend on the floor making speeches, having hearings and meeting in committees. Hearing 80-100 hours per week fundraising by staffers makes me only more concerned if Krishnamoorthi becomes Senator.
On the other hand, you really can't put Krishnamoorthi on the spot for working with the system the way it is until it's reformed.
I think you can call him out. It's one thing to spend most of your time fundraising for your next election; it's another to spend an exorbitant amount of time fundraising for a hypothetical election years in the future. It calls into question whether his commitment is to his constituents or to whatever promotion he's eyeing next.
Well, if it's any consolation, this would be his last promotion if he wins. He wasn't born in the U.S.
He's definitely going to try to make other people believe he'd be a good Cabinet secretary and have his grunts keep throwing his name out for governor every four years lol
True, but as others pointed out, there are always steps up that can be taken. Whether it's governor, cabinet, Senate leadership positions, etc., something tells me he's not going to pivot to giving his constituents the focus they deserve once he wins this promotion. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, though.
I hope calling Krishnamoorthi out doesn't end just with him.
NJ09: Republicans have an actual primary race, not a coronation for DC favoured candidate.
https://x.com/joeymdfox/status/2031185293437468986
Somewhat surprising NJ-9 result that means we’ve very much got a real GOP primary to take on Nellie Pou.
Pino will have party support for around 57% of the district’s GOP electorate, Burress the other 43%.
Like many other districts nationwide, if Republicans couldn't win it in 2024 then they ain't getting it this year, which Prempah probably recognised when he dropped out.
For sure, I’m not at all implying it’s in play, just that it’s good any GOP dollars will be wasted on the primary even if I think it won’t matter in the slightest for the general election.
It's funny that they're trying to push Buress as a candidate when she's very clearly the weaker of the two
WY-SEN:
I didn't see this published here but should be worth noting that former State Rep. James Byrd is the first official Democratic Senate Candidate making a run in this race. He's argued Wyoming isn't a red state but the odds are certainly against him considering how much influence the GOP has in the state.
Of course, Dave Freudenthal was Governor of WY from 2003-2011, before Matt Mead replaced him in 2011.
https://www.wyomingpublicmedia.org/politics-government/2026-02-18/first-wyoming-democrat-announces-run-for-u-s-senate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe9mRpIA2k4
I posted the news in a comment a week or two ago, but it’s always good to run people for races everywhere. Hopefully he can hit 35-40% and drag some downballot districts over the line for our party. We need to grow from the bottom up and credible candidates at the top help to do just that.
I may have missed it but thanks for the heads up.
Agree with what you're saying. WY typically doesn't generate headlines unless it's in the GOP primary process such as Liz Cheney being primaried by Harriet Hageman.
There was no realignment in 2024.
https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/2031339464908267863
NEW polling data on Trump voters: Overall 15% now disapprove of his job performance, including 19% of Hispanics, 22% of young voters, and 33% of Black 2024 Trump voters.
Affordability voters have shifted left on Trump and the House generic ballot:
https://gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-borrowed-affordability-voters-2026-03-10
This, combined with whatever will become of low-propensity Trump voters in a post-Trump climate, is why anyone who says they know what will happen in 2028 is completely full of it.
"Murray said the electorate’s growing diversity alone could tip the 2026 outcome. If all the major racial groups vote as they did in 2018 but compose their current shares of the electorate, Talarico would win the Senate race, he has calculated. “If you can just perform at that level, you are very competitive"."
"But even during these lean years for Democrats, Texas has been reshaped by the same tectonic economic and demographic forces that have boosted the party in other Sun Belt states. One is growing racial diversity: From 2000 to 2024, when Texas added more than 10.4 million residents, people of color accounted for 92% of that growth, according to the Equity Research Institute at the University of Southern California.
Another is increasing urbanization: The state’s four largest metro areas —Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, Austin and San Antonio — accounted for more than 80% of the state’s population and job growth since 2000, according to analysis by Richard Murray, a senior research associate at the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs.
This combination of diversification and improved performance in growing metros is the same formula that allowed Democrats to flip Colorado and Virginia blue after 2000, and more recently has allowed them to compete more effectively in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina."
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/08/politics/talarico-texas-paxton-cornyn-beto-2026-senate-race
This phrase “accounted for more than 80% of the state’s population and job growth” is a bit ambiguous here.
The four large metros count for ~ 65% of the state’s population, but way more than 80% of the GROWTH of the population. As phrased, the quoted statement has double meanings.
"population and job growth" I assume means "population growth" AND "job growth", not "population" and "job growth". Just an ambiguously worded clause.
The overlooked demographic trend in the South is that young white voters, especially urban and college educated white voters, are much more likely to vote Democratic than their elders. This is another trend to watch in Texas.
This is why I rooted for Amazon to stick HQ2 in Austin and have an influx of a few thousand likely Dem voters lol
% of U.S. adults who identify as MAGA Supporters
ALL: 25%
---
Republicans: 63% (new high)
Independents: 12%
Democrats: 3%
---
White: 31%
Black: 8%
Hispanic: 16%
---
Harris 2024 voters: 3%
Trump 2024 voters: 57%
---
Male: 28%
Female: 22%
---
Age 18-29: 22%
Age 30-44: 21%
Age 45-64: 29%
Age 65+: 27%
---
No degree: 27%
College grad: 21%
YouGov/Economist | 3/5-9
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2031379494766834008
I understand this is always just statistical noise but the idea of someone who calls themself a Democrat but also a MAGA supporter...bruh
While few in number, there are a few aged Dixiecrats in the voting pool.
But would they still self-ID as Democrats at this point?
I think nearly all would’ve died and/or switched parties by now. At least the ones that remember the Civil Rights era. It depends on where you draw the line and how you define Dixiecrats. “MAGA Harris voters” to me indicates some people might just be trolling pollsters.
Dixiecrats weren't fully wiped out in congress until 2010. So it isn't like its been 60 years, it's been 16. Sure, a lot of those former Dixiecrats no longer identify with the Democratic Party, a small portion of them certainly do. My guess is thats where the lion's share of the 3% comes from.
arguably even 2014, although i guess it's not fair to call pryor and landriue dixecrats but conservative southern dems
*Landrieu
Probably just wiseasses trolling pollsters.
wouldn't be surprised.
There will always be oddballs out there, people who don't understand what the labels mean.
Old school rust belt protectionist labor Democrats.
100% of us continue to be held hostage by the most radical 25%
These polls are kinda meaningless if the mid to high 40's of the population is supporting MAGA candidates. They don't want the label but the like the policies.
I am DYING to know who the 3% of Harris voters are who are self-identified MAGA supporters...
CA-GOV:
Matt Mahan's PAC just received a $1 million donation from Paul Buchheit, the creator of Gmail.
Meanwhile, in the City of San Jose the efforts of homeless housing are a real mess. While Mahan is running for Governor and getting absolutely zero traction besides Silicon Valley donations, there's a big problem in preferrential treatment over who gets housing. This is causing tensions with the homeless and police.
Clearly Mahan is not focused enough on the job as Mayor.
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/gmail-creator-governor-race-22017143.php
https://sanjosespotlight.com/san-jose-skips-housing-offers-for-some-homeless-residents/
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.
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The city appears to be giving preferential treatment to homeless residents living in large encampments like Columbus Park and the reestablished Jungle in East San Jose, when it comes to outreach and offers of temporary housing. The fallout from the city bypassing offers of housing to people living in smaller camps could result in longer periods of homelessness, leading to mental and physical issues, advocates said.
While the city prepares to clear the Jungle with promises of housing for the roughly 100 people living there, homeless people encamped near The Plant shopping center in South San Jose have been ignored and even arrested.
Homeless residents said they have been traumatized by recent encounters with the San Jose Police Department. The city swept an encampment there in January, but some people returned and set up a new camp nearby. When San José Spotlight spoke to homeless residents last week, they were preparing to be swept again with nowhere to go. They said they have received no offers of housing.
“It really sucks, because it’s like, where do I go? Where’s the help?” Mario Nogueras, a homeless resident living near the shopping center, told San José Spotlight.
Sarah Fields, spokesperson for the San Jose Housing Department, told San José Spotlight while the city has contracted with nonprofit People Assisting the Homeless (PATH) for outreach, the railway near The Plant where homeless people have encamped is under Union Pacific Railroad’s jurisdiction and outreach workers aren’t sent there.
Nogueras said police arrested him for trespassing, as well as other people, during a sweep on Jan. 15. He said police showed up with no advance notice, handcuffed him and others and did not allow him to take his backpack, with his insulin medicine inside.
So Mahan is neglecting the city he was elected to lead to instead run a hopeless vanity campaign that's really just to spite Newsom. What an ass
I think the Iran drama (and the ensuing oil prices) will cause the GOP to lose the Senate. Especially with that white supremacist Hedgseth shooting his GD mouth off.
I believe it was gone before that.
and the crimes against humanity and wars of aggression charges are writing themselves. there has to be accountability, we cannot repeat the mistakes of our party post civl war, post bush admin, post j6 insurrection etc.
I’m increasingly open to this being the case.
The problem with manufacturing consent is it has to actually still be manufactured. YOLOing into a severe war and then being surprised that it’s not over because you took out the Ayatollah is nowhere even close to the groundwork laid with the public for even Iraq ‘03, which was met with some hesitation even then. But these people are products of the Fox/podcast bubble and really believe their own press. The last week has been a rude awakening for them I’m sure and it’s going to get worse
Unless we can figure out how to win in red states, they will still have the advantage.
From Politico: "The California Democratic Party is launching its own public governor’s poll — an unusual step that shows it is keeping up the pressure on Democratic candidates to avoid an embarrassing lockout in the top-two primary. . . . Party chair Rusty Hicks says the California Voter Index will offer a rolling snapshot of the state of the race until ballots are dropped in early May. The poll will debut on March 24 with a baseline poll with a 2,000 person sample and follow every 7-10 days with a 1,200 person tracking poll."
.....and this will lead to an endorsement if candidates don't start dropping out is what i'm assuming?
I think it will just lead to more pressure on candidates who are pulling poorly to drop out. Too late to get off the ballot but dropping out still should help.
Much of the field is already delusional and/or selfish enough to think they can win with the current data out there. Adding one more rolling poll isn't going to cut do squat.
The party should get the big names to start consolidating behind one or two people with endorsements. With the current polling that should be Swalwell first, Porter second.
That already happened, nobody got 60%
I'm a party caucus chair and I have NO IDEA why the party is wasting, I mean spending, its money this way. In fact, after this was announced Betty Three sent yet another fundraising email headed "I'm not dropping out."