The highest profile primary left for us this cycle. Fortunately both of them are solid candidates and peoples’ preferences are ideological rather than avoiding disaster (perceived or actual).
Fittingly it looks damn close to a tossup between them. I’m hoping for Flannagan, we’ll see what happens. It’s been a good cycle for the left so far.
Interestingly, while I don't think theres a chance Klobuchar appoints Craig to the soon-to-be-vacant Class I Senate seat, I do aee a scenario where she appoints Flannagan should Craig win the Class II seat.
Why? What has he done? Has he taken on Trump? No. Has he set forth a Democratic agenda? No. Has he taken on the Republican leadership on the floor and in the media? No. He’s useless. The Invisible Man would be as effective a leader.
I forget who said it, but it was someone suggesting that the Democratic leadership needed to take a more aggressive stand against Trump. He said that we need "fighters" not "folders" (in other wards someone with a spine).
Similar to Michigan, we're seeing two polling tracks in the Minnesota DFL primary for U.S. Senate: one with Craig either tied or barely leading Flanagan, and the other with Flanagan having a fairly comfortable lead.
The polls showing Flanagan with a decent lead were internal polls for the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association, which is supporting Flanagan. This is different than Michigan, where the pro-AES polls were a mix of independent and internal polls.
Attorney General Todd Blanche's Senate confirmation is now down to outgoing Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA). Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins are opposing him as well as all Democrats, and Sen. Mitch McConnell is unable to vote.
Cassidy was the deciding vote to confirm health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., in an attempt to win over conservative primary voters, which did not work.
I imagine that Murkowski only announced her opposition after Thune et al. checked the numbers behind the scenes and advised her that Cassidy would vote in favor. Also, let's not rule out a dramatic return to the Senate floor by McConnell.
Murkowski is a partisan Republican. She can take moderate stances and act "independent", but she, along with her sidekick Susan, have voted for a lot of Trump's disastrous policies and judges.
Yes, and I agree that she's not a real independent, nor does she pretend to be one, but she does her own thinking and makes her own decisions, unlike most other Republicans, and that's where Paleo is right.
I'm stunned! Oh, wait, no I'm not. Bill Cassidy—what a titan of courage. And Collins and Murkowski got to do their little dance yet again. Hopefully, the former will only have about five months more to put on repeats of her favorite performance before retiring to private life, becoming a Fox News staple, or whatever she has planned just in case.
Meanwhile, it occurs to me that Peltola can use Murkowski's vote against to make Sullivan's backbenching vote in favor look even worse. If Peltola wants to make an issue out of it, of course.
NC Supreme Court. Glad to see Justice Earls expanding her lead in that race. That’s a must-hold seat if we’re to have any hope of getting parity on the court again. NCDP Chair Anderson Clayton has targeted that race as possibly THE most important one in this election.
2028 is going to be a big one, provided Justice Earls wins re-election.
NC Rs are going to spend a TON of money to keep their precious state Supreme Court and Ted Budd in the Senate. I hope we do a clean sweep in 2028, get Berger's nepo baby out of the court and hopefully get Jefferson Griffin out of the state Circuit Court of Appeals.
Budd is — and I did not think this was possible — even more useless than Tillis. But then, until Tillis I didn’t think it was possible to be more useless than Burr, so that, I suppose is what I get for thinking.
What TRULY needs to happen is cleaning House (and Senate) in the NCGA. There has never been a more wretched hive of scum and villainy. And treachery. We need people in the NCGA that represent their districts — not themselves. Their ONLY mission is to keep themselves in power, and it doesn’t matter how badly they screw over their constituents. I give you WNC as the latest example. When *AVERY COUNTY* is unseating Republicans, you know there’s some energy afoot. And Clayton has done what I thought impossible — fielded a Democratic candidate in ALL 170 legislative districts. Somebody in the NCDP leadership finally figured out that you can’t win if you don’t run. Amazing, innit?
And it would appear that the wages of sin are one lane in each direction on I-40. With Chuckles standing down, it does leave one to wonder who will replace him on that side, but I still like Ager’s odds. Edwards is gonna leave a stain that will take some scrubbing to get out, and not all of it will be due to his harassment of staffers. He wasn’t popular before any of that came out as I hear it, so if he’s poisoned thre well it might not matter who replaces him.
I have to say, ousting Phil Berger was a BIG start with cleaning house of MAGA GOP legislators. Along with unseating the traitorous conservadems (Majeed, Cunningham, Willingham) in the primaries.
Carolina Forward has a widget measuring the potential legislative makeup of a D-leaning midterm. If the polling is right about it being D+8 come Nov, Dems could hold a 67D-53R majority in the state House and a 25-25 split in the state Senate (which LG Rachel Hunt can be a tiebreaker).
Berger’s replacement isn’t that much of a change in any political sense — in fact he may actually be right of Berger on policy. But what he *doesn’t* have is an incumbency that dates back to the end of the last Ice Age, which gave Berger an outsized influence in the Senate and the GA more broadly.
I’m skeptical about reclaiming a majority, even in just one chamber. Nobody would be happier about it than me, but if you think our US House districts are gerrymandered, that *started* because of the most gerrymandered legislature imaginable. But if there was ever an election where that seemed possible, this could be the one.
I'd be thrilled to have Cooper win the Senate seat, have Earls win another 8 years, and have the GOP supermajorities broken.
If one or both state houses flip, I'd be shocked. I'm being reasonable and working towards flipping the NC Supreme Court in 2028 to get fair maps (and annul the GOP power grabs against the governor).
Those seem reasonable goals. Anything above and beyond that would be great, but for this cycle, sending Cooper to the Senate and keeping Earls on the SC are the top list teams. Flipping CD 11 seems within reach, and (dare I hope) CD 9 is still on eI say don’t sleep on. CD 1… if it flips, I’m not sure anybody would notice, but it’s the district Berger went after in order to get the Trump endorsement that didn’t help him in his primary (that he spent over $10 MILLION trying to win 🤣… Sorry, I still crack up when I think about that.) Point being he could flip CD 1, but if he LOSES 11 and 9 that’s a net gain for Team Blue, so just one more L for Moribund the Bergermiester (and CD 5 has been mentioned and I would buy a front row ticket to see Virginia “Carpetbagger” Foxx having to make a concession speech).
D+8 would not get you there. That might barely be enough to tie the House by winning two Trump +8.5 seats (in addition to 9 less red seats), but to tie the Senate you'd need to win a Trump +10 and +15 seat (in addition to 3 less red seats).
I am definitely an Anderson Clayton fangirl - she is a breath of fresh air! I recently attended a fundraiser for Ken McCool in Matthews for HD-105 and she was there. I have been in NC 40+ years and I couldn't tell you who was the previous NCDP chair and I consider myself pretty active since I retired in 2018.
I was *born* here, and … well, I have a (ahem) few more than 40 years. And I couldn’t name *any* NCDP chair prior to Clayton. But I *can* tell you that somewhere around 2012 I looked at every race in the NCGA over the previous 3-4 cycles and realized that every time, *both* parties left half their seats uncontested. Somewhere around 2008-2012 the NCGOP quit doing that, and started running in districts they never considered and guess what, they won. Once they had a majority in both chambers, they started redrawing maps what seemed like every other year, getting them thrown out, then coming back with new ones they could get away with. Bit by bit, they drew themselves into districts that were basically unbreakable, but kept contesting the ones that weren’t. They’ve stepped on a few rakes here and there — making state court races that were previously “non-partisan” partisan actually bit them when they first did it, but every piece of legislation they’ve passed since they’d took the majority had as its first priority keeping them in power.
(To be fair, Democrats drew the same kind of maps for ~100 years keeping their majority in the NCGA, but the federal districts stayed at parity more or less and remained competitive until computer modeling took over when the GOP finally wrestled power away.)
Liked your comment as usual, but I believe that court's name is the North Carolina Court of Appeals. Its name doesn’t include the word "circuit"; the _federal_ intermediate appeals courts are called circuit courts, however. The word "circuit" is also used to refer to some trial-level courts in various states, such as Maryland, Virginia, and Florida. I think there's just one state appeals court in the US that uses the term "circuit" to refer to itself, and that's (unsurprisingly) Louisiana. Happy to be educated on any of this.
As an Arkansan, it’s bullshit. I love Hallie Shoffner and she’s running a great fucking campaign for a Democrat in Arkansas, but she’s still a Democrat in Arkansas. I think at best she could reach a 55-45 loss - a loss is still a loss, but when you consider how red Arkansas typically is, it’d be a pretty seismic shift. In any case I think it’s very likely she becomes the first Democrat to reach 40% of the vote in *12 years*
I think that the other states should join Hawaii in holding primaries on Saturday, rather than Hawaii join the other states in holding them on Tuesday. Saturday elections make it a whole lot easier for most voters -- who typically work on Tuesdays and don't work on Saturdays -- to make it to the polls.
There is nothing sacred about holding elections on Tuesday. It's just the way we've always done it, because some guys wearing powdered wigs over 200 years ago decided so.
That’s what I was thinking. Holding elections on a day where most people have to work or are otherwise occupied is goofy and anti-democratic.
If you don’t want to move Election Day from Tuesday to Saturday, whatever. But why would you move it from Saturday to Tuesday? It’s like jumping off a bridge because all of your friends (except Louisiana) did it
Primaries could be easily changed, but federal general elections would require a constitutional amendment, which simply won't happen. And Tuesdays, rightly or wrongly, are now firmly in the fabric of how Americans view election dates, and changing to a different day of the week may hamper turnout due to muscle memory in a small percentage of the population. I would rather see election day be made a federal holiday to mitigate the problems of it being on a workday.
Because it's a religious holiday (thus can be interpreted as an Establishment Clause violation), and a lot of people celebrate holidays like Valentine's Day and Easter despite neither of them being official federal holidays.
Another option is to allow early/absentee voting across the entire country without requiring voters to give a reason/excuse for doing so. Virginia required this for early/absentee voting for the longest time, but we switched to no-excuse early voting once Democrats had a trifecta in state government.
For the first time this year, Connecticut has amended its constitution to allow both early voting and no-excuse absentee balloting. Both of those have made it much easier for working people to vote without moving Election Day to Saturday.
Squeaky wheel here again, but the dates for Blackburn look wonky. Her current term won’t end until January 2027, so how would a special for her seat be held in November 2026? On a more positive note, Escape From Congress would be a great headline for the group running for statehouses and governor’s mansions who currently or previously served in DC. Would make a good piece.
Squeaky wheel here again, but the dates for Blackburn look wonky. Her current term won’t end until January 2031, so how would a special for her seat be held in November 2026? If she’s elected governor, that’s an awfully quick turnaround. On a more positive note, Escape From Congress would be a great headline for the group running for statehouses and governor’s mansions who currently or previously served in DC. Would make a good piece.
I hope Case loses. I already heavily dislike it when conservative democrats vote for objectively bad Republican policy, but atleast a lot of them are in swing districts and you can *try* to justify it as being necessary for re-election (I question if that is necessary or helpful but there’s an argument to be made)
But Case represents a very blue district. He has no reason to be that conservative, he just does it for the love of the game. He’s gotta go.
Typo in the report on Sen. Marsha Blackburn? If she wins the race for Governor in Nov., she would appoint her sucessor and the special election would be in Nov 2028, not 2026.
This may have been covered yesterday, but I doubt Emerson's Iowa numbers. That's because I see little reason to accept the existence of a Sand lead and a Hinson lead at the same time. Accordingly, I'll happily take the Sand lead and disregard the finding that Turek is behind, lol. I think both Dems would win if the election were held tomorrow.
Sand is a statewide elected official, gubernatorial races favor parties out of power more than federal races, Hinson is perceived as more of a normal Republican to vote for than Lahn and has major establishment backing, and Sand simply has more name recognition than Turek due to being a statewide figure.
TN-4: Justin Pearson wasn't the only notable progressive to notch a congressional primary victory for a gerrymandered district last night.
Technology consultant Victoria Broderick, endorsed by the likes of Indivisible and state Rep. Gloria Johnson won a crowded Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. Scott DesJarlais. She might get within 15-20 points because of a large slice of Nashville being added into the district.
TX-Sen: The trend of moderate Republicans teaming up with Democrats in competitive races (Arizona, Georgia) continues, with Jim Ross, the Republican turned independent mayor of Arlington, endorsing James Talarico.
Yeah, like benamery said, he's independently wealthy. His grandfather Sam headed Forest City, a large real estate firm that owned everything from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn to Station Square in Pittsburgh.
News from the North: Conservative MP Larry Brock will resign his Southern Ontario seat of Brantford-Brant South- Six Nations next month, the seventh Conservative to resign or switch parties since the 2025 general election.
Thoughts about the Michigan senate race: As of now I see Abdul El-Sayed as sort of the Dem version of Ron Johnson: outsider/anger candidate, no crossover appeal, poor fit for a swing state, but can still hold enough of his own party's habitual voters to win in a good environment for his party. [Johnson has been lucky enough to run in 2010 (R+6.8 aggregate House vote), 2016 (R+1.0), and 2022 (R+2.7).]
The measuring stick I use for the race itself is the 2024 race. Rogers is Rogers. El-Sayed is almost certainly weaker than Slotkin, but how much weaker? 2024 was R+2.6. 2026 is shaping up to be something between D+6 and D+12. Even if it turns out to be D+6, El-Sayed would have to be 9 points weaker than Slotkin to lose.
For now I have this race at tilt D. I think El-Sayed has both a low floor and a low ceiling: I think at best he will run even with the generic House vote whereas Slotkin beat it by 3. But there's a huge gap between his floor (losing with room to spare even in a great year for Dems) and his ceiling, and where he ends up will depend on how well he campaigns and responds to the serious GOP attacks he has never faced before. So far he seems to be saying the right things.
Side note, I think if the GOP goes all in on the anti-Arab and anti-Muslim crap it will backfire hard. That only appeals to the most rabid parts of the GOP base, and base turnout isn't remotely enough in a bad cycle for your party. A lot of swing voters turn out even in midterms.
Lakshya Jain says that while el-Sayed will underperform the MI governor's race significantly, he is still favored to win the general. Jain says that Jocelyn Benson will win the MI governor's race by 11 points, while AES is favored to win by a much smaller margin, like D+4-5.
But him eking out a 2-point win, a la WI crackpot Ron Johnson in 2022, wouldn't surprise me either.
I think that’s similar to what well seen here in GA but with our Senate candidate outrunning our gubernatorial candidate. I see Ossoff win between 5-8 percent then KLB winning around 1-3 percent.
Flying under the radar this week, WA primary results. W/ 93% of vote in, D’s at about 54% in CD-03. As
@SeanTrende has written, WA top-2 results have been a good proxy for Nov results. In ‘24, Trump won the CD by 3pts. So, this would be an 11-point swing left.
It's starting to look less and less like those special election overperformances were unique to their elections, save for a few extremely wild results. We might actually see something of an 8-12 leftward swing in the midterms.
True, but in both of her previous runs you also have to consider the weakness of Joe Kent as an opponent. It's hard to really evaluate her strength given that she's never run against a generic R, like Braun, in a non-wave election year.
I also included the change in Democratic voter share from the primary to the general in 2024 just to get a feel for how accurate/reflective of November the 2026 primary results may be.
It looks to me that Democrats are performing *very* well in competitive/red districts. One of the more notable changes is in the 4th District: Three Democrats cumulatively only reached 22.9% of the vote in 2024, so low that they wouldn't have even gotten into the top two if only one Democrat ran and consolidated the vote, compared to 2026 where a Democrat made it into the top two *and* performed 7.5 points stronger than Dems did in 2024, an overperformance big enough that it can't be explained by a single Dem being able to broaden their appeal better than a divided field.
This seems to line up with contests happening outside of Washington state as well: In a lot of swing districts/states nationwide, we're seeing Democratic turnout outpace Republican turnout, and in a handful of red states we're seeing Democrats turn out to vote in much higher numbers than in previous years even if Republicans still outnumber them.
MN SUSA:
Craig 42
Flanagan 40
https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-poll-demuth-in-striking-distance-of-lindell-craig-up-in-key-demographic/
The highest profile primary left for us this cycle. Fortunately both of them are solid candidates and peoples’ preferences are ideological rather than avoiding disaster (perceived or actual).
Fittingly it looks damn close to a tossup between them. I’m hoping for Flannagan, we’ll see what happens. It’s been a good cycle for the left so far.
I'll be voting for Flannagan, but either candidate will be fine electorally and loyal Dem votes in office.
Interestingly, while I don't think theres a chance Klobuchar appoints Craig to the soon-to-be-vacant Class I Senate seat, I do aee a scenario where she appoints Flannagan should Craig win the Class II seat.
Interesting! I hadn't considered that
Definitely interesting, since I remember seeing comments on here suggesting they believe the exact opposite!
Flanagan is the better choice IMO if we want a hope of ousting do-nothing Schumer from leadership
Flanagan is the better choice..
I think Craig is the better choice, but either would likely be fine. You may not like Schumer but calling him "do-nothing" is kind of silly.
Why? What has he done? Has he taken on Trump? No. Has he set forth a Democratic agenda? No. Has he taken on the Republican leadership on the floor and in the media? No. He’s useless. The Invisible Man would be as effective a leader.
I forget who said it, but it was someone suggesting that the Democratic leadership needed to take a more aggressive stand against Trump. He said that we need "fighters" not "folders" (in other wards someone with a spine).
Similar to Michigan, we're seeing two polling tracks in the Minnesota DFL primary for U.S. Senate: one with Craig either tied or barely leading Flanagan, and the other with Flanagan having a fairly comfortable lead.
Haven’t seen an independent poll other than by SUSA in months.
The polls showing Flanagan with a decent lead were internal polls for the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association, which is supporting Flanagan. This is different than Michigan, where the pro-AES polls were a mix of independent and internal polls.
It reminds me of the Illinois senate election where a lot of Pro-Stratton polls were also from the Lt. Gov Association
Texas:
Talarico 47-43
Abbott 46-45
https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/2085683484064927933?s=46&t=sbdQQeYBqp0h_Zql717iTw
Other races:
AG: Middleton (R) 46%-Johnson (D) 44%.
LG: Goodwin (D) 48%-Patrick (R) 46%.
The pollster notes that the changes in margin since its June poll are:
Senate D+5; Gov D+5; AG D+4; LG D+7.
(conducted 7/27-30 among 619 LVs) https://reconmr.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Texas-Pulse-August-Release-August-7-2026-Final.pdf Comparing one poll to another is always best when it's the same pollster. This poll shows great movement in favor of Democrats in one month and real potential for us to win more than one statewide race.
AG and LG would be huge. LG is overpowered in Texas compared to other states and essentially runs the state senate.
Looks like there will be a libertarian on the ballot. That might help Talarico on the margins.
I'm cautiously optimistic here. I'm more confident in my gut feeling that Texas-Sen is easier for us than Iowa-Sen this cycle.
I think this is probably true. TX demographics are definitely better for us than IA.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/08/07/congress/lisa-murkowski-opposes-todd-blanche-01028553
Attorney General Todd Blanche's Senate confirmation is now down to outgoing Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA). Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins are opposing him as well as all Democrats, and Sen. Mitch McConnell is unable to vote.
Cassidy was the deciding vote to confirm health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., in an attempt to win over conservative primary voters, which did not work.
Cassidy will probably do the same thing this time.
It's interesting that the only time Cassidy has ever truly sided against Trump was when he voted to convict him in the second Trump impeachment trial.
I imagine that Murkowski only announced her opposition after Thune et al. checked the numbers behind the scenes and advised her that Cassidy would vote in favor. Also, let's not rule out a dramatic return to the Senate floor by McConnell.
I think Murkowski is far more likely to vote her convictions than Collins. And, unlike Collins, she is an independent
Murkowski is a partisan Republican. She can take moderate stances and act "independent", but she, along with her sidekick Susan, have voted for a lot of Trump's disastrous policies and judges.
Yes, and I agree that she's not a real independent, nor does she pretend to be one, but she does her own thinking and makes her own decisions, unlike most other Republicans, and that's where Paleo is right.
Cassidy is a YES on Blanche. [puke]
Of course. Main reason why Collins voted no.
I'm stunned! Oh, wait, no I'm not. Bill Cassidy—what a titan of courage. And Collins and Murkowski got to do their little dance yet again. Hopefully, the former will only have about five months more to put on repeats of her favorite performance before retiring to private life, becoming a Fox News staple, or whatever she has planned just in case.
Meanwhile, it occurs to me that Peltola can use Murkowski's vote against to make Sullivan's backbenching vote in favor look even worse. If Peltola wants to make an issue out of it, of course.
I can't wait for Collins to lose her seat.
NC Supreme Court. Glad to see Justice Earls expanding her lead in that race. That’s a must-hold seat if we’re to have any hope of getting parity on the court again. NCDP Chair Anderson Clayton has targeted that race as possibly THE most important one in this election.
2028 is going to be a big one, provided Justice Earls wins re-election.
NC Rs are going to spend a TON of money to keep their precious state Supreme Court and Ted Budd in the Senate. I hope we do a clean sweep in 2028, get Berger's nepo baby out of the court and hopefully get Jefferson Griffin out of the state Circuit Court of Appeals.
Budd is — and I did not think this was possible — even more useless than Tillis. But then, until Tillis I didn’t think it was possible to be more useless than Burr, so that, I suppose is what I get for thinking.
What TRULY needs to happen is cleaning House (and Senate) in the NCGA. There has never been a more wretched hive of scum and villainy. And treachery. We need people in the NCGA that represent their districts — not themselves. Their ONLY mission is to keep themselves in power, and it doesn’t matter how badly they screw over their constituents. I give you WNC as the latest example. When *AVERY COUNTY* is unseating Republicans, you know there’s some energy afoot. And Clayton has done what I thought impossible — fielded a Democratic candidate in ALL 170 legislative districts. Somebody in the NCDP leadership finally figured out that you can’t win if you don’t run. Amazing, innit?
NC 11 is truly a den of inequity.
And it would appear that the wages of sin are one lane in each direction on I-40. With Chuckles standing down, it does leave one to wonder who will replace him on that side, but I still like Ager’s odds. Edwards is gonna leave a stain that will take some scrubbing to get out, and not all of it will be due to his harassment of staffers. He wasn’t popular before any of that came out as I hear it, so if he’s poisoned thre well it might not matter who replaces him.
I have to say, ousting Phil Berger was a BIG start with cleaning house of MAGA GOP legislators. Along with unseating the traitorous conservadems (Majeed, Cunningham, Willingham) in the primaries.
Carolina Forward has a widget measuring the potential legislative makeup of a D-leaning midterm. If the polling is right about it being D+8 come Nov, Dems could hold a 67D-53R majority in the state House and a 25-25 split in the state Senate (which LG Rachel Hunt can be a tiebreaker).
Berger’s replacement isn’t that much of a change in any political sense — in fact he may actually be right of Berger on policy. But what he *doesn’t* have is an incumbency that dates back to the end of the last Ice Age, which gave Berger an outsized influence in the Senate and the GA more broadly.
I’m skeptical about reclaiming a majority, even in just one chamber. Nobody would be happier about it than me, but if you think our US House districts are gerrymandered, that *started* because of the most gerrymandered legislature imaginable. But if there was ever an election where that seemed possible, this could be the one.
I'd be thrilled to have Cooper win the Senate seat, have Earls win another 8 years, and have the GOP supermajorities broken.
If one or both state houses flip, I'd be shocked. I'm being reasonable and working towards flipping the NC Supreme Court in 2028 to get fair maps (and annul the GOP power grabs against the governor).
Those seem reasonable goals. Anything above and beyond that would be great, but for this cycle, sending Cooper to the Senate and keeping Earls on the SC are the top list teams. Flipping CD 11 seems within reach, and (dare I hope) CD 9 is still on eI say don’t sleep on. CD 1… if it flips, I’m not sure anybody would notice, but it’s the district Berger went after in order to get the Trump endorsement that didn’t help him in his primary (that he spent over $10 MILLION trying to win 🤣… Sorry, I still crack up when I think about that.) Point being he could flip CD 1, but if he LOSES 11 and 9 that’s a net gain for Team Blue, so just one more L for Moribund the Bergermiester (and CD 5 has been mentioned and I would buy a front row ticket to see Virginia “Carpetbagger” Foxx having to make a concession speech).
D+8 would not get you there. That might barely be enough to tie the House by winning two Trump +8.5 seats (in addition to 9 less red seats), but to tie the Senate you'd need to win a Trump +10 and +15 seat (in addition to 3 less red seats).
I am definitely an Anderson Clayton fangirl - she is a breath of fresh air! I recently attended a fundraiser for Ken McCool in Matthews for HD-105 and she was there. I have been in NC 40+ years and I couldn't tell you who was the previous NCDP chair and I consider myself pretty active since I retired in 2018.
I was *born* here, and … well, I have a (ahem) few more than 40 years. And I couldn’t name *any* NCDP chair prior to Clayton. But I *can* tell you that somewhere around 2012 I looked at every race in the NCGA over the previous 3-4 cycles and realized that every time, *both* parties left half their seats uncontested. Somewhere around 2008-2012 the NCGOP quit doing that, and started running in districts they never considered and guess what, they won. Once they had a majority in both chambers, they started redrawing maps what seemed like every other year, getting them thrown out, then coming back with new ones they could get away with. Bit by bit, they drew themselves into districts that were basically unbreakable, but kept contesting the ones that weren’t. They’ve stepped on a few rakes here and there — making state court races that were previously “non-partisan” partisan actually bit them when they first did it, but every piece of legislation they’ve passed since they’d took the majority had as its first priority keeping them in power.
(To be fair, Democrats drew the same kind of maps for ~100 years keeping their majority in the NCGA, but the federal districts stayed at parity more or less and remained competitive until computer modeling took over when the GOP finally wrestled power away.)
Liked your comment as usual, but I believe that court's name is the North Carolina Court of Appeals. Its name doesn’t include the word "circuit"; the _federal_ intermediate appeals courts are called circuit courts, however. The word "circuit" is also used to refer to some trial-level courts in various states, such as Maryland, Virginia, and Florida. I think there's just one state appeals court in the US that uses the term "circuit" to refer to itself, and that's (unsurprisingly) Louisiana. Happy to be educated on any of this.
That's what I meant to say, and I live in NC too!
I'm having a hard time swallowing that AR SEN poll.
Safe R, unless the bottom REALLY falls out for Republicans due to Trump 2.0.
It’s ridiculous. Probably to try and drum up fundraising
100%
I have no doubt that the race will be closer than previous AR-Sen races, but that just means a 59-41 Cotton victory instead of a 66-33 victory really
That's probably about the right margin
Have to assume it was some "informed ballot" BS
Not quite, but they asked other questions before asking for voting intentions, so that likely primed the people surveyed to some degree.
As an Arkansan, it’s bullshit. I love Hallie Shoffner and she’s running a great fucking campaign for a Democrat in Arkansas, but she’s still a Democrat in Arkansas. I think at best she could reach a 55-45 loss - a loss is still a loss, but when you consider how red Arkansas typically is, it’d be a pretty seismic shift. In any case I think it’s very likely she becomes the first Democrat to reach 40% of the vote in *12 years*
If we lost Arkansas 55-45 I’d be fucking ecstatic
Anything better than 60/40 would be great (and I still don't expect that)
Agreed and me neither
Our nominee in AR-02 would be, too.
I think that the other states should join Hawaii in holding primaries on Saturday, rather than Hawaii join the other states in holding them on Tuesday. Saturday elections make it a whole lot easier for most voters -- who typically work on Tuesdays and don't work on Saturdays -- to make it to the polls.
There is nothing sacred about holding elections on Tuesday. It's just the way we've always done it, because some guys wearing powdered wigs over 200 years ago decided so.
That’s what I was thinking. Holding elections on a day where most people have to work or are otherwise occupied is goofy and anti-democratic.
If you don’t want to move Election Day from Tuesday to Saturday, whatever. But why would you move it from Saturday to Tuesday? It’s like jumping off a bridge because all of your friends (except Louisiana) did it
Primaries could be easily changed, but federal general elections would require a constitutional amendment, which simply won't happen. And Tuesdays, rightly or wrongly, are now firmly in the fabric of how Americans view election dates, and changing to a different day of the week may hamper turnout due to muscle memory in a small percentage of the population. I would rather see election day be made a federal holiday to mitigate the problems of it being on a workday.
I would fully support replacing Christmas with Election Day as a federal holiday, although I don't support moving Election Day to Christmas.
Why Christmas?
Because it's a religious holiday (thus can be interpreted as an Establishment Clause violation), and a lot of people celebrate holidays like Valentine's Day and Easter despite neither of them being official federal holidays.
Another option is to allow early/absentee voting across the entire country without requiring voters to give a reason/excuse for doing so. Virginia required this for early/absentee voting for the longest time, but we switched to no-excuse early voting once Democrats had a trifecta in state government.
For the first time this year, Connecticut has amended its constitution to allow both early voting and no-excuse absentee balloting. Both of those have made it much easier for working people to vote without moving Election Day to Saturday.
Squeaky wheel here again, but the dates for Blackburn look wonky. Her current term won’t end until January 2027, so how would a special for her seat be held in November 2026? On a more positive note, Escape From Congress would be a great headline for the group running for statehouses and governor’s mansions who currently or previously served in DC. Would make a good piece.
Squeaky wheel here again, but the dates for Blackburn look wonky. Her current term won’t end until January 2031, so how would a special for her seat be held in November 2026? If she’s elected governor, that’s an awfully quick turnaround. On a more positive note, Escape From Congress would be a great headline for the group running for statehouses and governor’s mansions who currently or previously served in DC. Would make a good piece.
I hope Case loses. I already heavily dislike it when conservative democrats vote for objectively bad Republican policy, but atleast a lot of them are in swing districts and you can *try* to justify it as being necessary for re-election (I question if that is necessary or helpful but there’s an argument to be made)
But Case represents a very blue district. He has no reason to be that conservative, he just does it for the love of the game. He’s gotta go.
Case's opponent was endorsed by Indivisible.
I'd vote against him for that SAVE Act shenanigans alone. Otherwise, I would have been "shrug emoji" either way.
Typo in the report on Sen. Marsha Blackburn? If she wins the race for Governor in Nov., she would appoint her sucessor and the special election would be in Nov 2028, not 2026.
This may have been covered yesterday, but I doubt Emerson's Iowa numbers. That's because I see little reason to accept the existence of a Sand lead and a Hinson lead at the same time. Accordingly, I'll happily take the Sand lead and disregard the finding that Turek is behind, lol. I think both Dems would win if the election were held tomorrow.
Sand is a statewide elected official, gubernatorial races favor parties out of power more than federal races, Hinson is perceived as more of a normal Republican to vote for than Lahn and has major establishment backing, and Sand simply has more name recognition than Turek due to being a statewide figure.
1. Sure;
2. I think that's debatable to say the least, but if you're correct, then Talarico's continuing polling lead is even more impressive;
3a. Can you provide some context for the perceptions of Iowa voters that Hinson is more of a normal Republican to vote for than Lahn?
3b. Why do you believe that Lahn lacks major establishment backing as you implied?
4. In that case I'm quite enthused by Emerson finding Turek only trailing slightly and like the poll even more. Way to go, Emerson! :-)
TN-4: Justin Pearson wasn't the only notable progressive to notch a congressional primary victory for a gerrymandered district last night.
Technology consultant Victoria Broderick, endorsed by the likes of Indivisible and state Rep. Gloria Johnson won a crowded Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. Scott DesJarlais. She might get within 15-20 points because of a large slice of Nashville being added into the district.
Would be nice to see somebody make his scandals stick in the same year as a blue wave...
https://www.star-telegram.com/news/local/article316783900.html
TX-Sen: The trend of moderate Republicans teaming up with Democrats in competitive races (Arizona, Georgia) continues, with Jim Ross, the Republican turned independent mayor of Arlington, endorsing James Talarico.
He thinks that race will be a real slobberknocker. /s
Oh my god! Paxton’s support is broken in half!
https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2026/08/07/max-miller-will-pour-1-million-into-his-reelection-bid-despite-growing-calls-to-drop-out/
OH-7: Rep. Max Miller, down in the latest polls after domestic assault allegations, will self-fund $1 million for his campaign.
Hang in there Max.
You can Own The Libs by staying in this race and fighting the Deep State! Prove your MAGA bonafides by denying the reality of your situation!
Miller has $1 million to fund his campaign?
Let me guess - He’s getting it from the wealthy members at Mar A Lago?
His net worth is about $18mil. He's from money.
Yeah, like benamery said, he's independently wealthy. His grandfather Sam headed Forest City, a large real estate firm that owned everything from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn to Station Square in Pittsburgh.
News from the North: Conservative MP Larry Brock will resign his Southern Ontario seat of Brantford-Brant South- Six Nations next month, the seventh Conservative to resign or switch parties since the 2025 general election.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/conservative-mp-announces-he-will-resign-next-month/
Thoughts about the Michigan senate race: As of now I see Abdul El-Sayed as sort of the Dem version of Ron Johnson: outsider/anger candidate, no crossover appeal, poor fit for a swing state, but can still hold enough of his own party's habitual voters to win in a good environment for his party. [Johnson has been lucky enough to run in 2010 (R+6.8 aggregate House vote), 2016 (R+1.0), and 2022 (R+2.7).]
The measuring stick I use for the race itself is the 2024 race. Rogers is Rogers. El-Sayed is almost certainly weaker than Slotkin, but how much weaker? 2024 was R+2.6. 2026 is shaping up to be something between D+6 and D+12. Even if it turns out to be D+6, El-Sayed would have to be 9 points weaker than Slotkin to lose.
For now I have this race at tilt D. I think El-Sayed has both a low floor and a low ceiling: I think at best he will run even with the generic House vote whereas Slotkin beat it by 3. But there's a huge gap between his floor (losing with room to spare even in a great year for Dems) and his ceiling, and where he ends up will depend on how well he campaigns and responds to the serious GOP attacks he has never faced before. So far he seems to be saying the right things.
Side note, I think if the GOP goes all in on the anti-Arab and anti-Muslim crap it will backfire hard. That only appeals to the most rabid parts of the GOP base, and base turnout isn't remotely enough in a bad cycle for your party. A lot of swing voters turn out even in midterms.
Agreed. It's refreshing to see an analytical perspective instead of an opinionated one for once.
Lakshya Jain says that while el-Sayed will underperform the MI governor's race significantly, he is still favored to win the general. Jain says that Jocelyn Benson will win the MI governor's race by 11 points, while AES is favored to win by a much smaller margin, like D+4-5.
But him eking out a 2-point win, a la WI crackpot Ron Johnson in 2022, wouldn't surprise me either.
I think that’s similar to what well seen here in GA but with our Senate candidate outrunning our gubernatorial candidate. I see Ossoff win between 5-8 percent then KLB winning around 1-3 percent.
Picture perfect analysis and your RoJo analogy is spot on. I do think he could struggle in 2032 but that's a lifetime from now in politics.
Flying under the radar this week, WA primary results. W/ 93% of vote in, D’s at about 54% in CD-03. As
@SeanTrende has written, WA top-2 results have been a good proxy for Nov results. In ‘24, Trump won the CD by 3pts. So, this would be an 11-point swing left.
https://x.com/amyewalter/status/2085714983040541123?s=20
It's starting to look less and less like those special election overperformances were unique to their elections, save for a few extremely wild results. We might actually see something of an 8-12 leftward swing in the midterms.
Those special elections were more so 20 point shifts, though half of that is still a lot.
Only caveat is that MGP is much stronger than generic D.
True, but in both of her previous runs you also have to consider the weakness of Joe Kent as an opponent. It's hard to really evaluate her strength given that she's never run against a generic R, like Braun, in a non-wave election year.
I decided to go through each district's primary in Washington and compare the results from 2024 to 2026:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTZJk6nsuKCQiIxS4WWm6w2EC9cy6OOqAUEIulVxlvC4tD8qW09RShG0fMB2UOWXbm11eN__FEKLI3d/pub
I also included the change in Democratic voter share from the primary to the general in 2024 just to get a feel for how accurate/reflective of November the 2026 primary results may be.
It looks to me that Democrats are performing *very* well in competitive/red districts. One of the more notable changes is in the 4th District: Three Democrats cumulatively only reached 22.9% of the vote in 2024, so low that they wouldn't have even gotten into the top two if only one Democrat ran and consolidated the vote, compared to 2026 where a Democrat made it into the top two *and* performed 7.5 points stronger than Dems did in 2024, an overperformance big enough that it can't be explained by a single Dem being able to broaden their appeal better than a divided field.
This seems to line up with contests happening outside of Washington state as well: In a lot of swing districts/states nationwide, we're seeing Democratic turnout outpace Republican turnout, and in a handful of red states we're seeing Democrats turn out to vote in much higher numbers than in previous years even if Republicans still outnumber them.
My verdict: Republicans are fucked.