Morning Digest: Another 70-something House Democrat could lose on Saturday
Centrist Rep. Ed Case is the latest to face a younger, more progressive challenger
Leading Off
HI-01
Polling for state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole shows him defeating veteran Rep. Ed Case 47-38 in Saturday’s Democratic primary for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District, a high-profile contest where no other data has been released all year.
Matthew Kassel of Jewish Insider, who first reported Keohokalole’s July 24 survey from BluePrint Polling, writes that the firm found Case ahead 33-25 earlier in the month. The two are vying for a safely blue constituency that includes most of Honolulu.
Outside groups, however, never behaved as though they believed Case, long one of the more conservative members of his caucus, might be in danger of becoming the seventh House Democrat to lose a bid for renomination this year.
The only third-party spending reported to the FEC through Thursday was a $75,000 digital advertising buy from Keohokalole’s allies at an outfit called Future Progress. That’s almost a negligible sum for a competitive primary that has seen each candidate raise about $1 million apiece. However, it’s infinitely more than the $0 that Case’s backers have spent to help him.
But Kassel’s sources believe that the congressman, who returned to the House in 2019 after previously representing the 2nd District from 2002 to 2007, has not taken this contest seriously either.
“Ed is running a poor race,” said an unidentified former Case campaign staffer. This person and others criticized the incumbent for appearing at few events and refusing to debate his opponent.
A Hawaii-based strategist who isn’t working for either side, however, thinks Case is aware he’s in a fight. This unnamed source told Kassel that the congressman has expanded his digital advertising and texting efforts, “which he hasn’t ever done before.”
Case has largely centered his reelection argument on his seniority, including his position on the powerful House Appropriations Committee.
Last week, he told Hawaii Public Radio that he’d used his influence to secure vital money for the state during the COVID pandemic, the devastating 2021 Maui wildfires, and water contamination from leakage at the Navy’s Red Hill facility. Case added, “And what is the next crisis?”
Keohokalole, by contrast, used his interview with the station to argue Case is failing to combat the national crisis that began with Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
The challenger faulted the congressman for being one of just four Democrats to support the SAVE Act, which Keohokalole called “a voter suppression bill that’s going to disenfranchise millions of voters across the country” by requiring documentary proof of citizenship to be able to register to vote.
Case has defended the legislation, saying, “It had a variety of ways that you could demonstrate citizenship, up to and including simply attesting that you were a U.S. citizen.”
That, however, is untrue. The bill requires those without the necessary documentation to attest to their citizenship and provide “other evidence” to an election official, who must then assess its sufficiency. That official would in turn have to sign a sworn affidavit that the applicant had “sufficiently established” their citizenship.
Ideology, though, isn’t the only fault line in this race.
Keohokalole, who at 43 is nearly three decades younger than the 72-year-old incumbent, says Case has failed to properly address the state’s problems during his long time in politics.
Keohokalole has even drafted his opponent to make his pro-change argument for him. One of his commercials features 2006 footage of Case, then 53, calling for Democratic primary voters to oust the 82-year-old Sen. Dan Akaka and nominate him instead.
“It is time for the next generation of leadership,” said Case during what would prove to be an ill-fated campaign. “We just need the courage to choose it.”
The Case-Keohokalole primary on Saturday—the third and final election night this week—has taken up most of the attention in this heavily Democratic state.
Gov. Josh Green and Rep. Jill Tokuda of the 2nd Congressional District face only minimal opposition in both the Democratic primary and the general election, while neither U.S. Senate seat is on the ballot this year. There is, however, a competitive statewide Democratic primary for the open post of lieutenant governor, and the winner will serve as Green’s running mate this fall.
Finally, there’s the question of why Hawaii is one of the rare states that holds primaries on Saturdays. Unlike Tennessee, which has Thursday all to itself, the Aloha State isn’t quite an outlier: Louisiana also regularly hosts statewide contests on that day, while municipal and special elections sometimes occur on Saturdays in other states, too.
The local news site Civil Beat wrote in 2019 that the answer seems to be that a weekend vote best accommodates schools, which have long been the location of most election precincts. Its editorial board, however, used that piece to call for Hawaii, where most votes are now cast by mail, to join almost every other state in holding primaries on Tuesday.
Over the ensuing seven years, however, no action has been taken to move the date, so Hawaii will once again hold its nomination contests on Saturday.
Election Recaps
TN-Gov (R) (64-34 Trump)
Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn successfully executed the first step in her plan to escape from Congress, though her margin of victory in Thursday’s GOP primary for governor was much smaller than originally expected.
Blackburn beat Rep. John Rose 43-33, with a third candidate, state Rep. Monty Fritts, taking 23%. As recently as this spring, though, polls showed Blackburn cruising by more than 50 points, as the wealthy Rose plowed at least $13 million of his personal fortune into the race.
The final surveys of the contest—including Blackburn’s own—indicated that the senator’s once dominant advantage had shrunk, but in the end, it wasn’t enough to sink her. She’ll be the heavy favorite over Memphis Councilwoman Jerri Green, who easily won the Democratic nomination, in the race to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Bill Lee.
Barring a major upset this fall, it will soon be up to Blackburn, who won reelection to the Senate in 2024, to appoint her successor in the upper chamber. A special election would then be held in November of 2026 for the final two years of Blackburn’s term.
TN-05 (R) (61-38 Trump)
For the second time this year—in fact, the second time this week—a Republican endorsed by Donald Trump lost a congressional primary.
The newest inductee into this tight-knit club is Tennessee Rep. Andy Ogles, who fell to former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher on Thursday night. Hatcher, who had the support of Gov. Bill Lee and a super PAC funded by wealthy renewable energy investors, defeated Ogles 53-47.
Ogles’ short career was marked by a series of scandals, making Democrats hopeful they could oust him in November despite the 5th District’s deep red hue—made even redder by the GOP’s recent gerrymander. Now the newly minted Democratic nominee, Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, will face an even more difficult task against Hatcher, though he’s enjoyed a hefty fundraising advantage over his Republican opponent.
Ogles can at least console himself, though, that unlike Trump’s other unhappy pick this week—Michigan’s Amir Hassan—he did not lose to a candidate who dropped out a month before the primary.
TN-06 (63-36 Trump)
State Rep. Johnny Garrett rang up a 44-30 win over former Rep. Van Hilleary, who was trying to return to Congress after nearly a quarter century away, in the primary to replace GOP Rep. John Rose. Both campaigned as ardent conservatives, but Garrett stood out by making transphobia a key part of his pitch to Middle Tennessee Republicans.
TN-09 (R) (60-39 Trump)
State Sen. Brent Taylor easily beat state Rep. Todd Warner 46-26 in the Republican primary for the open 9th District, a once-Democratic and majority-Black constituency that the GOP legislature radically transformed with its new gerrymander.
Taylor, who had Donald Trump and Sens. Marsha Blackburn and Bill Hagerty in his corner, is the favorite to replace Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen, who did not run for reelection after his district became all but unwinnable. Taylor will go up against state Rep. Justin Pearson, who was challenging Cohen for renomination and remained in the race despite the long odds for any Democrat.
Governors
MS-Gov
A spokesperson for state Auditor Shad White said in a statement Tuesday that White will have “plenty to say about” next year’s open race for governor sometime “after the midterms.”
Political observers have long regarded White, who is currently deployed to the Middle East with the Mississippi National Guard, as an all-but-certain contender to succeed termed-out Gov. Tate Reeves, a fellow Republican. One outlet even said in a headline last December that White had announced a campaign.
While White has yet to launch a bid, his looming candidacy may have already had an impact on the GOP primary. State Agriculture Commissioner Andy Gipson announced his own campaign in June of last year, an early start that the Magnolia Tribune suggested was necessary because of White’s “relentless” drive to win over backers and donors.
Gipson is not the only hopeful who beat White to the punch. Former state House Speaker Philip Gunn jumped in last April, and state Attorney General Lynn Fitch joined the field on Tuesday.
Poll Pile
AR-Sen: 2040 Strategy Group for Hallie Shoffner:
Tom Cotton (R-inc): 46, Shoffner (D): 43.
IA-Sen: Emerson College for Nexstar Media:
Ashley Hinson (R): 48, Josh Turek (D): 45.
ME-Sen: Hart Research for Senate Majority PAC:
Troy Jackson (D): 49, Susan Collins (R-inc): 45.
MN-Sen (D): SurveyUSA for KSTP:
Angie Craig: 42, Peggy Flanagan: 40.
July: 40-40 tie.
MN-Sen (R): SurveyUSA:
Michele Tafoya: 48, Royce White: 13, Adam Schwarze: 5, Tom Weiler: 3.
July: Tafoya: 41, White: 10.
MN-Sen (R): Deep Root Analysis for Minnesota Forward (pro-Tafoya):
Tafoya: 47, Schwarze: 18, White: 15.
NC-Sen: Change Research for Talking About Politics:
Roy Cooper (D): 50, Michael Whatley (R): 41.
Feb.: 50-40 Cooper.
AZ-Gov: Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP:
Katie Hobbs (D-inc): 52, Andy Biggs (R): 44.
IA-Gov: Emerson:
Rob Sand (D): 48, Zach Lahn (R): 43.
MN-Gov (R): SurveyUSA:
Mike Lindell: 34, Lisa Demuth: 28, Kendall Qualls: 17.
July: Lindell: 35, Demuth: 26, Qualls: 11.
WI-Gov (D): Public Policy Polling for David Crowley:
Francesca Hong: 42, Crowley: 24.
IA-02: Global Strategy Group for House Majority PAC:
Lindsay James (D): 46, Joe Mitchell (R): 45.
KY-06: DCCC Analytics:
Zach Dembo (D): 47, Ralph Alvarado (R): 47.
OH-07: co/efficient:
Brian Poindexter (D): 47, Max Miller (R-inc): 33.
Unreleased late July poll: 44-39 Poindexter.
AZ-AG: Fabrizio and Impact:
Kris Mayes (D-inc): 48, Warren Petersen (R): 43.
MN-AG: SurveyUSA:
Keith Ellison (D-inc): 44, Ron Schutz (R): 36.
July: 42-38 Ellison.
NC Supreme Court: Change Research:
Anita Earls (D-inc): 45, Sarah Stevens (R): 39.
Feb.: 45-43 Earls.
I'm having a hard time swallowing that AR SEN poll.
Safe R, unless the bottom REALLY falls out for Republicans due to Trump 2.0.
NC Supreme Court. Glad to see Justice Earls expanding her lead in that race. That’s a must-hold seat if we’re to have any hope of getting parity on the court again. NCDP Chair Anderson Clayton has targeted that race as possibly THE most important one in this election.