Morning Digest: After Walz calls it quits, a heavyweight replacement looms

Democrats can retake full control in Minnesota, a one-time progressive "laboratory"

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (credit: Tim Walz Facebook)

Leading Off

MN-Gov

Democratic Gov. Tim Walz announced Monday that he was ending his reelection campaign, a surprise decision that scrambles the race to lead Minnesota—and could see a heavyweight alternative jump in, with control of state government up for grabs.

Walz, declared in September that he would try to be the first person to secure a third four-year term as governor, said he’d changed his mind over the holidays after Donald Trump and his allies intensified their attacks—and conspiracy theories—about a long-running investigation into allegations of fraud in the state’s welfare system.

“For the last several years, an organized group of criminals have sought to take advantage of our state’s generosity,” the governor, who was Kamala Harris’ running mate in 2024, said in a statement. “And even as we make progress in the fight against the fraudsters, we now see an organized group of political actors seeking to take advantage of the crisis.”

Walz argued that he’d taken necessary steps to fix the problems but said that Republicans were only interested in “playing politics with the future of our state.” The governor added, “Every minute I spend defending my own political interests would be a minute I can’t spend defending the people of Minnesota against the criminals who prey on our generosity and the cynics who prey on our differences.”

Political observers quickly mentioned several Democrats who could be interested in entering the Aug. 11 primary for this unexpectedly open post, but one major name is receiving considerably more attention than the rest: Sen. Amy Klobuchar.

Multiple media outlets reported that Klobuchar, who won a new six-year term in 2024, is weighing a bid for governor, though she has yet to confirm her interest. However, unnamed local Democrats told Axios they anticipate she’ll run, though a different anonymous source added that the senator hasn’t made a final decision.

The Minnesota Star Tribune also identified Attorney General Keith Ellison and Secretary of State Steve Simon, who are both seeking reelection, as prospective candidates.

ABC reported that Ellison, according to a nameless source, hasn’t closed the door on running for governor and is “weighing all options.” A person close to Simon, though, told the Tribune that he would defer to Klobuchar.

Fluence Media’s Blois Olson, who first broke the news about Walz’s change of plans, also mentioned Rep. Kelly Morrison, state Senate Majority Leader Erin Murphy, and state Sen. Nick Frentz as possible contenders. Murphy ran for governor in 2018 but lost the primary to Walz 42-32.

But while Olson initially named former Rep. Dean Phillips as a potential candidate, Phillips tweeted he had “no intention to run for Minnesota Governor or US Senate.” Semafor also said that Sen. Tina Smith, who announced her retirement last year, isn’t interested in running for governor.

The already packed GOP field, meanwhile, expanded late last week when state Rep. Peggy Bennett announced her campaign. Bennett, who was first elected to the legislature in 2014, pitched herself to KEYC as someone who would “refuse to take part in name-calling” and would “talk about solutions.”

Bennett launched her effort the month after MyPillow founder Mike Lindell—a notorious election conspiracy theorist who has been quite willing to take part in name-calling—became arguably the most prominent Republican to enter the race.

The GOP primary also features state House Speaker Lisa Demuth; businessmen Patrick Knight and Kendall Qualls; attorney Chris Madel; state Rep. Kristin Robbins, and former state Sen. Scott Jensen, who was Walz’s 2022 opponent.

Minnesota Republicans last won a statewide race in 2006 when Gov. Tim Pawlenty narrowly secured a second and final term, though they’ve come close to breaking that long losing streak several times since then.

Democrats, however, hope that Trump’s unpopularity will not only extend their winning record but that they’ll also win enough seats in the legislature to once again make the state a “laboratory in pushing progressive policy,” as NBC put it in 2023.

Walz, who won the governor’s office in 2018 after representing a competitive U.S. House district for 12 years, was unable to get many of his priorities past the GOP-led state Senate during his first term. But things changed in 2022 after Walz’s 52-45 election victory over Jensen helped Democrats unexpectedly take control of the upper chamber and simultaneously defend their majority in the state House.

The governor and fellow Democrats, including the late Speaker Melissa Hortman, understood that their time in power might be short-lived, and indeed it was. That, however, created a sense of urgency that prompted Democrats to pass a wide array of legislation protecting abortion rights, expanding gun safety, improving voting access, legalizing recreational marijuana, and much more.

But that window for change closed in 2024. Though the Harris-Walz ticket won statewide, Republicans nonetheless captured enough seats in the state House to force a 67-67 tie and place Demuth in the speaker’s chair. The state Senate, which was not up that year, continues to feature a narrow 34-33 Democratic majority.

Every seat in the legislature, however, will be on the ballot this fall, along with the governorship, giving both parties the chance to take full control of state government once again.

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Election Night

Special Elections

The new year starts off with no fewer than five legislative special elections in four different states, most of which heavily favor one party or the other. However, one race for the state House in South Carolina is potentially competitive and bears extra attention.

The contest for the 98th District in the Charleston area became necessary after Republican Rep. Chris Murphy announced his resignation in August, saying he wanted “to focus on my work outside of public office.” Murphy had missed most of last year’s legislative session and was hospitalized for an unspecified medical episode in February.

Democrats are fielding Sonja Ogletree Satani, a business management professor and Air Force veteran, while Republicans have nominated Greg Ford, who also served in the Air Force and describes himself as retired after having held “leadership positions in all levels of the military and contracting sector.”

Satani lost to Murphy in 2024 by a 57-43 margin, but Donald Trump carried the district by a much smaller 53-46 spread, according to calculations by The Downballot.

Tuesday’s elections also include races for solidly Democratic seats in the Connecticut House, the Virginia Senate, and the Virginia House, as well as a safely Republican seat in the Georgia House. Stay on top of every special election this year by bookmarking the new “2026” tab on our continually updated Big Board.

Redistricting Roundup

KS Redistricting

Dan Hawkins, the Republican speaker of the Kansas House, talked down the possibility of further gerrymandering the state’s congressional map in a new interview with the Sunflower State Journal, bluntly saying, “We don’t have the votes.”

To survive a guaranteed veto by Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, Republicans would need 84 votes in the House when the legislature reconvenes for its regular session on Monday. While the GOP caucus stands at 88, Hawkins told the Journal, “If I did have a vote, I’d be lucky to get 63”—a simple majority.

Last year, Republicans tried to call a special session to pass a map that would target Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids in the Kansas City-area 3rd District. However, they abandoned those plans in November after failing to obtain signatures from the necessary two-thirds of lawmakers in each chamber—the same supermajority hurdle they face with Kelly.

According to Hawkins, only 78 members of the House signed on. But despite that failure, GOP leaders said at the time that they would continue pressing forward during the regular session, with Senate President Ty Masterson calling redistricting “a top priority.” However, the Journal says Masterson’s office “didn’t immediately comment on Monday afternoon.”

4Q Fundraising

• IL-Sen: Raja Krishnamoorthi (D): $3.6 million raised, $15 million cash on hand

• CA-Gov: Katie Porter (D): $3 million raised (in six months); Eric Swalwell (D): $3 million raised (in six weeks); Antonio Villaraigosa (D): $1.8 million raised (in six months)

• FL-Gov: Byron Donalds (R): $13.1 million raised; David Jolly (D): $1 million raised

• ME-Gov: Hannah Pingree (D): $850,000 raised (in six months)

• OH-Gov: Vivek Ramaswamy (R): $9.88 million raised (in six months, no self-funding)

• SC-Gov: Ralph Norman (R): $500,000 raised, additional $500,000 self-funded, $1.9 million cash on hand

• CA-48: Brandon Riker (D): $225,000 raised, $1 million cash on hand

• IA-03: Sarah Trone Garriott (D): $425,000 raised, $845,000 cash on hand

• MA-06: Dan Koh (D): $2 million raised; Rick Jakious (D): $300,000 raised; Tram Nguyen (D): $255,000 raised

• ME-02: Jordan Wood (D): $1.2 million raised (includes money raised while Wood was still running for the Senate)

• MI-07: Bridget Brink (D): $530,000 raised, $1 million cash on hand

• NJ-07: Tina Shah (D): $413,000 raised, $650,000 cash on hand

• NY-17: Cait Conley (D): $560,000 raised, $1.2 million cash on hand

Senate

CO-Sen, CO-Gov

Republican state Sen. Mark Baisley announced on Monday that he was leaving the race for Colorado’s open governorship and would run against Democratic Sen. John Hickenlooper instead, while two days earlier, former Rep. Greg Lopez said that he was quitting the GOP primary for governor to run as an independent.

Colorado Republicans have lacked a serious candidate to take on Hickenlooper, who remains the heavy favorite even with Baisley’s switch. The senator does, however, face a challenge in the Democratic primary from state Sen. Julie Gonzalez, who has attacked him for voting for a large number of Donald Trump’s appointees.

By contrast, the GOP has a crowded contest in the race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Jared Polis, though Republicans again lack any heavyweight options. Democrats have a two-way showdown between Sen. Michael Bennet and state Attorney General Phil Weiser.

TX-Sen

State Rep. James Talarico is launching his first television ads ahead of Texas’ March 3 Democratic primary, backed by what his campaign described as an “initial seven-figure statewide TV buy.”

In Talarico’s opening spot, the candidate addresses a group of supporters, telling them, “I stood up to the billionaire megadonors defunding our public schools. I led the fight against politicians redrawing our districts to rig elections. And I fought the most extreme abortion ban in the country.” In the Senate, he promises to “take on corruption and make life more affordable.”

Talarico faces Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the primary, though the presence of a minor perennial candidate, Ahmad Hassan, could send the contest to a runoff in May. The same could happen on the GOP side, where Sen. John Cornyn is besieged by state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt.

Governors

ME-Gov

Republican businessman Shawn Moody, who’d been gearing up for a second bid for Maine’s governorship, announced over the weekend that he would not run, citing health issues.

In 2018, Moody lost by a 51-43 margin to Democrat Janet Mills, who is barred from seeking reelection due to term limits but is challenging GOP Sen. Susan Collins. Both parties have busy primaries in the race to succeed Mills.

NH-Gov

State Sen. Donovan Fenton, Portsmouth Mayor Deaglan McEachern, and former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington all tell the Boston Globe that they’re considering seeking the Democratic nomination to oppose Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte as she seeks a second two-year term leading New Hampshire this fall.

McEachern, though, doesn’t sound likely to go for it, saying voters ought to be skeptical of any politician who professes to be “super excited” about running.

The only Democrat in the race is Jonathan Kiper, who ran a little-noticed campaign in 2024 and hasn’t generated much excitement for his new effort. Candidate filing doesn’t close until June 12 in New Hampshire, which has one of the last such deadlines in the nation.

NM-Gov

New Mexico businessman Doug Turner, who finished a distant third in the 2010 GOP primary, tells reporter Joe Monahan that he’s considering a second bid for governor.

During his first campaign, Turner took just 12% of the vote, far behind the winner, Susana Martinez, who captured the Republican nod with 51% and went on to win two terms. Both parties have three-way primaries this year in the race to replace Martinez’s successor, term-limited Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham.

TX-Gov

Businessman Andrew White announced Monday that he was dropping out of Texas’ March 3 Democratic primary for governor and endorsing state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. Hinojosa still faces former Rep. Chris Bell and rancher Bobby Cole for the right to take on Republican Gov. Greg Abbott.

House

GA-14

Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation was set to take effect on Monday, a move that will allow Gov. Brian Kemp to schedule a special election for northwest Georgia’s dark-red 14th District.

Kemp has 10 days to act, though it’s not clear when the race will take place. Georgia law requires that a special election be held no sooner than 30 days after the governor calls one but does not otherwise specify a timeframe. All candidates from all parties will run together on a single ballot, with a runoff 28 days later should no one win a majority.

Greene’s departure drops the House GOP caucus to 219 members, while Democrats hold 213 seats. Two other safely Democratic seats are also vacant, pending forthcoming special elections: Texas’ 18th, which will be resolved on Jan. 31, and New Jersey’s 11th, which will be filled on April 16.

MA-06

Veterinarian Mariah Lancaster announced Monday that they were joining the race to succeed Rep. Seth Moulton, a fellow Democrat who is leaving the safely blue 6th District behind to run for the Senate. Lancaster, who is a former congressional aide, would be the first member of Congress to identify as non-binary.

Lancaster faces a busy field of opponents in the Sept. 1 primary for the 6th, which includes the region north of Boston known as the North Shore.

The lineup includes software engineer Bethany Andres-Beck, who would also be the first nonbinary person to serve in Congress; attorney John Beccia; former state Rep. Jamie Belsito; former White House official Dan Koh; state Rep. Tram Nguyen; and Rick Jakious, who is Mouton’s former chief of staff.

MT-01

Smokejumper Sam Forstag, a member of an elite team that fights wildfires, announced Monday that he’d challenge Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke in Montana’s 1st District.

Forstag, who’s also a leader of the union that represents local Forest Service workers, publicized an endorsement from Sen. Bernie Sanders on his first day on the campaign trail. Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin, who first reported on Forstag’s interest last year, also notes that the newcomer is the nephew of Rep. Susie Lee of Nevada.

Forstag joins Matt Rains, a rancher and Army veteran who launched his campaign in October, in a June 2 primary that’s likely to grow further still. The Daily Montanan writes that Ryan Busse, a former firearms manufacturing company executive who is now a gun safety advocate, is “widely expected” to run. Busse challenged GOP Gov. Greg Gianforte in 2024 but lost 59-39.

Donald Trump carried this constituency in the western part of the state 54-43, according to calculations by The Downballot.

NH-01

Conservative activist Elizabeth Girard has dropped her bid for New Hampshire’s competitive 1st Congressional District, less than two months after joining the race. Both parties have competitive multi-way primaries in the contest to succeed Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, who is running for the Senate.

NJ-12

Iziah Thompson, a housing policy researcher and member of the Democratic Socialists of America who served on Zohran Mamdani’s transition team, has entered the crowded race for New Jersey’s open 12th Congressional District.

NY-12

George Conway, the former Republican attorney who reinvented himself as a vocal MAGA opponent during Donald Trump’s first term, announced on Tuesday that he was joining the Democratic primary for New York’s open 12th Congressional District.

“We have a corrupt president, a mendacious president, a criminal president whose masked agents are disappearing people from our streets, who’s breaking international law, and he’s running our federal government like a mob protection racket,” Conway said in his launch video. “I know how to fight these people.”

Conway enters a crowded race to succeed retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler, who’s represented Manhattan’s safely blue 12th District and its predecessors since 1992. The field includes two elected officials, Assemblymembers Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, as well as a host of activists, attorneys, and public figures.

UT-01

Former TikTok employee Liban Mohamed announced Monday that he was entering the Democratic primary for Utah’s revamped 1st Congressional District, which is now solidly blue under the state’s new congressional map. Mohamed, who is of Somali descent, would be the first Muslim person to represent the state in Congress.

Mohamed faces several current or former elected officials in the June 23 primary for what will be Utah’s first reliably Democratic House seat in modern times. His opponents include Salt Lake City Council member Eva Lopez Chavez; former state Sen. Derek Kitchen; former Rep. Ben McAdams; and a pair of state senators, Nate Blouin and Kathleen Riebe.

Poll Pile

• NH-Gov: Praecones Analytica for the NH Journal: Chris Pappas (D): 42, John Sununu (R): 36; Pappas (D): 46, Scott Brown (R): 28.