Excellent! I hope James Whalen jumps in for one of the five Court of Appeals seats up in 2028 or join Brook in unseating the three SCONC justices. I was hoping Christine Walczyk would run for SCONC against Newby or Barringer if she didn't win last week's primary for Court of Appeals.
I am curious who will take on election denier Jefferson Griffin in 2028.
There’s plenty of time though for things to get worse in the world and for our chances to get better between now and November. This could go from a wave to a tsunami if we get a recession or the war escalates further.
The use of the term "won" the primary vote leads me to question the utility of this data. That said our sheer dominance in the RGV districts from a Primary turnout standpoint is reassuring...
Youngkin, I assume, wants to be president and knows what attaching his name to a failed opposition effort would hurt his standing. Not surprising that he isn't lifting a finger to hurt his image.
Crude oil has gone up ~50% already, while Iraq is being forced to cap wells as it has basically no storage available. As I understand it, uncapping an oil well is not a quick or trivial process -- even if hostilities ended today it would still be some time before production returned to normal. Realistically it's too late for TACO to save them from the consequences of this come November. These types of problems are too time consuming to fix.
Oil prices are going to keep going up. Brent crude is about $100 right now, it was $65 before. When Russia launched it's invasion of Ukraine, it peaked around $120. I suspect it's going to exceed that.
I'd start to get a bit more hopeful about our chances of winning some of those four senate reach seats in particular; this is going to get ugly.
The US is impacted by global prices even if we're 100% self-sufficient on oil. Our "spare supply" only helps the oil companies make a bigger profit right now. It doesn't save us from the economic impacts of oil prices going up globally.
Being a "net exporter" of oil doesn't mean we can be totally self-sufficient. Different kinds of oil are refined into different products. And existing pipelines and distribution networks are hard to reroute.
As I understand it, our oil wells produce a petroleum of one grade and our refineries primarily process petroleum of a different grade. A large amount of the oil we use is imported even though we produce more than we use in more basic terms.
The US economy is very exposed to oil price shocks. If only we had continued to invest in renewables and electrification of transportation, we'd be accelerating the de-risking process.
Problem with that is that East Asian economies are highly reliant on oil but especially LNG from the Gulf. If that spice ain’t flowing to the big Tiger economies and Japan, or to China, then we have big big problems even if gas prices stateside stay a bit lower
That's why it's possible those countries use their leverage to reopen the strait. Would Iran resist pressure when it's China and India yelling at them rather than the U.S.?
Would Shitler back off if China started making noise and moving military assets to the region? Unlikely they would since, unlike the U.S, China historically doesn't go around the world attacking countries left and right.
Iran’s survival is dependent on their leverage. It’s less about China/India intimidating Iran and more about large economies intimidating the USA into finding an off-ramp
Even with that, south Texas isn’t enough to generate a huge swing. It’s not very populated compared to the rest of the state. A 30-point swing in the RGV nets you like 2-3 points statewide. That helps, but getting to a double digit win in places like Tarrant and Williamson County while getting over 60% in Harris County and Bexar County are probably prerequisites. That’s where all the people are. Probably flipping Collin and Denton counties too.
I'll believe it when I see it. It's pretty rare to see huge PVI snapbacks after a pattern of going the other direction. I could see the majority of the RGV counties going blue but with margins much closer to 2020 than 2012 or 2016.
There’s reason to believe it in Hispanic areas after what we saw in November across the country. Probably because they don’t like masked men terrorizing them in the streets. Just a thought.
The only examples that come to mind are the Cuban voters in Miami and voters in the Midwest and plains who moved significantly to the left in the mid to late 80s and moved back in the 90s.
Deep South voters moved significantly from 1972 to 1976 but that was a pretty unusual situation
I got to a narrow D win by making Dallas D+39, Tarrant D+12, Travis D+60, Williamson D+15, Collin D+4, Denton D+1, Bexar D+27, Harris D+22, Ellis R+9, Kaufman R+10, Rockwall R+15, and Hays D+25. Otherwise, keep all turnout and Biden-Trump margins the same. RGV movement and swings in other urban/suburban counties like Bell, McLennan, Montgomery, Brazoria, and Guadalupe would provide more buffer.
Something like the same rural margin, same or slightly better in the smaller metros and along the border, 6-7 pt better in margin in the four largest metros, would do. So about 75% in Travis.
I'm so glad voters showed Phil Berger the door -- and he seems like he's uninterested in seeking a recount.
He's probably going to go scorched earth as a lame duck, as well as those three conservadems who voted to override Stein's vetoes on Berger's red-meat legislation.
not familiar with this pollster... reliable poll? because it's drastically different from the Collins 55/Platner 41 type polls I was seeing (NRSC or Mills-related) last month.
Ogles really taking the mask off here. Unbelievable that a sitting US rep would say/write something like this publicly, but here we are.... too bad this asshat is in a +17 district. Any chance of this being a reach seat?
And the craziest ones have issues even with plenty of the white Christians, people like Eric Schmitt don’t consider anyone who came to the US after the 1840s - the Italians, the Irish, the Poles, the Greeks, etc. to be real Americans.
The Nazis never got more than 44%. I'm not entirely sure that less than 44% of Americans either supports this or at least don't care enough to fight it!
The Nazis ruled over a smaller country with fewer checks and balances, and a lot of people who didn't vote for them were willing to get behind them when they took power.
When you're already at "Somalis are garbage" out of the mouth of the leader of the party, it's a pretty short trip for a guy like Ogles to go where he did.
Imagine if Omar made a similar tweet about fundamentalist Pentacostals. She wouldn't last another day in Congress. The playing field is just not stacked fairly at all.
Probably not, unfortunately, my mom lives in the Nashville section of this district which is pretty decently blue and gives us a base, but the rest is just so red.
It's sleepy because conservatives are worried about the fall and the potential for Dems to flip both chambers and retain the Governorship in what is shaping up to be a wave year; the liberal candidate has a 10-to-1 fundraising advantage over the conservative candidate.
You know things are bad for Rs when Robin Vos cites a "health condition" as the reason for retirement. No, he's retiring because he doesn't want to be demoted to House Minority Speaker come 2027.
Is there any chance of Dems being able to take advantage of some sort of existing judicial election infrastructure? Can they build on anything Susan Crawford left behind during her successful campaign?
Judicial elections in Wisconsin are technically fully non-partisan, and there are some strict rules in place about fundraising. Most of the infrastructure is in the state Democratic Party.
What Mike Johnson said; plus, this is not a swing/ majority-maker seat. If the Repub wins, SCOWI still has a 4-3 Dem lean. My son at ACLU of WI is doing some nominal work on it but they're not treating it as The Most Important Spring Swing Election Ever the way they were the last 2 SCOWI races.
So can those following closer fill us in -- is this liberal court (either with the current case or future one) going to allow a redraw of the Congressional map?
Considering the fact Democrats are now the higher turnout voters, I'm not sure Republicans are going to win a Wisconsin supreme court seat for the foreseeable future, unless the Democrat truly screws up
Minor correction in the CA-06 item: Bera had been representing the 6th, is now running in the neighboring Third (not Sixth) District, which has a similar lean.
We have some long term work to do to solve the fact that it’s Trump’s dismal popularity rather than our own popularity on its merits buffeting us right now
Meanwhile Stephen Colbert is the second most popular person or thing they asked about, after Pope Leo. (They were the only two things that registered net positives.)
An out of office party registering poorly isn't unusual, nor does it preclude electoral success soon after. The GOP's all time lowest point in that survey was in fall 2013, a year before a red wave midterm. I do agree that we need to make a more positive case for Democratic leadership and what we can do once the presidential cycle begins, though just "We didn't do that" may well be enough for the midterms.
What's even worse than the Democratic Party and AI? Democratic politicians and leaders that sell out to AI and big tech special interests. Not limited but including, the ever expanding amount of wasteful and harmful AI datacenters displacing neighborhoods, bailouts and tax cuts to AI companies like Amazon warehouses, and of course, bloody age verification, because surely more surveillance will keep the kids safe.
Or back to the later Bush years (not the post-9/11 rally round the flag earlier ones.)
Excellent! I hope James Whalen jumps in for one of the five Court of Appeals seats up in 2028 or join Brook in unseating the three SCONC justices. I was hoping Christine Walczyk would run for SCONC against Newby or Barringer if she didn't win last week's primary for Court of Appeals.
I am curious who will take on election denier Jefferson Griffin in 2028.
I doubt it, we’ve got to remember Democratic primary voters tend to be more informed, and Republicans vote downballot better than Democrats.
There’s plenty of time though for things to get worse in the world and for our chances to get better between now and November. This could go from a wave to a tsunami if we get a recession or the war escalates further.
I do agree that Virginia 25 showed promising potential for democrats voting better downballot.
The use of the term "won" the primary vote leads me to question the utility of this data. That said our sheer dominance in the RGV districts from a Primary turnout standpoint is reassuring...
Hah! She knows her pouty faced colleague won't be succeeded by a fellow conservative next month.
So, she's taking her ball and going home.
Youngkin, I assume, wants to be president and knows what attaching his name to a failed opposition effort would hurt his standing. Not surprising that he isn't lifting a finger to hurt his image.
Crude oil has gone up ~50% already, while Iraq is being forced to cap wells as it has basically no storage available. As I understand it, uncapping an oil well is not a quick or trivial process -- even if hostilities ended today it would still be some time before production returned to normal. Realistically it's too late for TACO to save them from the consequences of this come November. These types of problems are too time consuming to fix.
Oil prices are going to keep going up. Brent crude is about $100 right now, it was $65 before. When Russia launched it's invasion of Ukraine, it peaked around $120. I suspect it's going to exceed that.
I'd start to get a bit more hopeful about our chances of winning some of those four senate reach seats in particular; this is going to get ugly.
We actually have more spare supply to offset than we had in 2022, so that could keep prices below the levels seen then.
The US is impacted by global prices even if we're 100% self-sufficient on oil. Our "spare supply" only helps the oil companies make a bigger profit right now. It doesn't save us from the economic impacts of oil prices going up globally.
Being a "net exporter" of oil doesn't mean we can be totally self-sufficient. Different kinds of oil are refined into different products. And existing pipelines and distribution networks are hard to reroute.
That's another factor too!
As I understand it, our oil wells produce a petroleum of one grade and our refineries primarily process petroleum of a different grade. A large amount of the oil we use is imported even though we produce more than we use in more basic terms.
The US economy is very exposed to oil price shocks. If only we had continued to invest in renewables and electrification of transportation, we'd be accelerating the de-risking process.
Problem with that is that East Asian economies are highly reliant on oil but especially LNG from the Gulf. If that spice ain’t flowing to the big Tiger economies and Japan, or to China, then we have big big problems even if gas prices stateside stay a bit lower
That's why it's possible those countries use their leverage to reopen the strait. Would Iran resist pressure when it's China and India yelling at them rather than the U.S.?
Yes, if that's what's needed for the theocratic regime to survive.
Would Shitler back off if China started making noise and moving military assets to the region? Unlikely they would since, unlike the U.S, China historically doesn't go around the world attacking countries left and right.
Iran’s survival is dependent on their leverage. It’s less about China/India intimidating Iran and more about large economies intimidating the USA into finding an off-ramp
What exactly will Iran's conditions be to reopen the strait?
Yeah, that’s really annoying when both her and McLaurin could’ve had pretty clear paths to the general.
Keisha Waites winning anything would be a surprise, she managed to fumble the public serve commission primary in 2025
I don’t have a small enough violin to post for Darrell Issa.
PPP/DSCC internal has Talarico up 1 over Cornyn (44-43), up 2 on Paxton (47-45).
https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/Texas-poll.pdf
Do you think that having Hinojosa at the top and a candidate in every seat will give Talarico a benefit that Beto didn’t have against Cruz?
It would be VERY hard to be worse than Valdez was!
I don’t know anything about that race. Actually I know little about Hinojosa, I only watched her launch video.
Hopefully also vice versa!
See, I am of the belief that South Texas will bounce back towards us in a pretty dramatic way.
Even with that, south Texas isn’t enough to generate a huge swing. It’s not very populated compared to the rest of the state. A 30-point swing in the RGV nets you like 2-3 points statewide. That helps, but getting to a double digit win in places like Tarrant and Williamson County while getting over 60% in Harris County and Bexar County are probably prerequisites. That’s where all the people are. Probably flipping Collin and Denton counties too.
Completely agree with the suburban strategy - I just think that the RGV will be lucrative as well.
I'll believe it when I see it. It's pretty rare to see huge PVI snapbacks after a pattern of going the other direction. I could see the majority of the RGV counties going blue but with margins much closer to 2020 than 2012 or 2016.
There’s reason to believe it in Hispanic areas after what we saw in November across the country. Probably because they don’t like masked men terrorizing them in the streets. Just a thought.
Yet also those who live in an area where the largest employer would be the Border Patrol. Pretty big qualifying factor.
The only examples that come to mind are the Cuban voters in Miami and voters in the Midwest and plains who moved significantly to the left in the mid to late 80s and moved back in the 90s.
Deep South voters moved significantly from 1972 to 1976 but that was a pretty unusual situation
I would think he'd probably need better than 55% in Williamson to meet the benchmarks. He'd definitely need Collin and probably Denton.
I got to a narrow D win by making Dallas D+39, Tarrant D+12, Travis D+60, Williamson D+15, Collin D+4, Denton D+1, Bexar D+27, Harris D+22, Ellis R+9, Kaufman R+10, Rockwall R+15, and Hays D+25. Otherwise, keep all turnout and Biden-Trump margins the same. RGV movement and swings in other urban/suburban counties like Bell, McLennan, Montgomery, Brazoria, and Guadalupe would provide more buffer.
https://elections-daily.com/election-shuffler-2-0-archive/
Remember when we thought that a Dem winning Tarrant at all would get a win statewide?
No need to that monster margin in Travis.
Something like the same rural margin, same or slightly better in the smaller metros and along the border, 6-7 pt better in margin in the four largest metros, would do. So about 75% in Travis.
I'm so glad voters showed Phil Berger the door -- and he seems like he's uninterested in seeking a recount.
He's probably going to go scorched earth as a lame duck, as well as those three conservadems who voted to override Stein's vetoes on Berger's red-meat legislation.
Maine Senate Quantus:
Platner up 5 on Mills, 7 on Collins.
Collins up 2 on Mills.
https://quantusinsights.org/f/maine-senate-2026-collins-faces-uncertain-path-to-re-election#ddfaccf9-bede-412a-8ce9-6f9ddda07554
not familiar with this pollster... reliable poll? because it's drastically different from the Collins 55/Platner 41 type polls I was seeing (NRSC or Mills-related) last month.
Relatively new. Had some success in national polling in 2024. But only recently started delving into state polling.
Really wish we had a better candidate than either of them but if I’m gonna roll the dice on someone… I’d go with Platner.
https://x.com/RepOgles/status/2031002097135599717
Ogles really taking the mask off here. Unbelievable that a sitting US rep would say/write something like this publicly, but here we are.... too bad this asshat is in a +17 district. Any chance of this being a reach seat?
And the craziest ones have issues even with plenty of the white Christians, people like Eric Schmitt don’t consider anyone who came to the US after the 1840s - the Italians, the Irish, the Poles, the Greeks, etc. to be real Americans.
That's why MAGA Italian-Americans piss me off to no end. (I'm of Italian-American descent.)
Luckily he won't be getting his way. There's way more of us then there are of them.
The Nazis never got more than 44%. I'm not entirely sure that less than 44% of Americans either supports this or at least don't care enough to fight it!
The Nazis ruled over a smaller country with fewer checks and balances, and a lot of people who didn't vote for them were willing to get behind them when they took power.
The same can't be said for the MAGA GOP.
One of the most odious Congressmen, which is saying a lot
Trying to keep up with Randy Fine.
Fine is a special kind of vile. Be nice if the blue tsunami washed that beluga whale out as well.
Is it bad that I laughed out loud at "beluga whale"?
No, not at all!
Open season for bigots and racists.
It has been ever since an orange asshole came down the escalator in 2015.
Probably not, though I think it increases the chances that Republicans concede a Nashville-based seat in 3031, especially if TN gains a district.
Well the reapportioned Congress will take office in 2033 (or 3033), but the actual apportionment would happen in 2031 (or 3031)
Do you not have that optimism?
The U.S. is unlikely to exist as a democracy even in 2131, even if the human race does.
Didn’t notice it said “3031”..
Trump+17 so a reach but definitely not entirely out of the question.
When you're already at "Somalis are garbage" out of the mouth of the leader of the party, it's a pretty short trip for a guy like Ogles to go where he did.
Imagine if Omar made a similar tweet about fundamentalist Pentacostals. She wouldn't last another day in Congress. The playing field is just not stacked fairly at all.
Omar would still be in congress if she said that. The votes are not there to expel her.
Probably not, unfortunately, my mom lives in the Nashville section of this district which is pretty decently blue and gives us a base, but the rest is just so red.
Another conservative Wisconsin Supreme Court justice to retire.
https://x.com/kkondik/status/2031026486275162118?s=46&t=sbdQQeYBqp0h_Zql717iTw
And he’s already the last man on the court. 😆
It's sleepy because conservatives are worried about the fall and the potential for Dems to flip both chambers and retain the Governorship in what is shaping up to be a wave year; the liberal candidate has a 10-to-1 fundraising advantage over the conservative candidate.
A Wisconsin trifecta would be real fun for us as turnabout for the Walker years
You know things are bad for Rs when Robin Vos cites a "health condition" as the reason for retirement. No, he's retiring because he doesn't want to be demoted to House Minority Speaker come 2027.
Losing all the power you've had for a dozen years is bad for Republicans' health
Is there any chance of Dems being able to take advantage of some sort of existing judicial election infrastructure? Can they build on anything Susan Crawford left behind during her successful campaign?
Judicial elections in Wisconsin are technically fully non-partisan, and there are some strict rules in place about fundraising. Most of the infrastructure is in the state Democratic Party.
What Mike Johnson said; plus, this is not a swing/ majority-maker seat. If the Repub wins, SCOWI still has a 4-3 Dem lean. My son at ACLU of WI is doing some nominal work on it but they're not treating it as The Most Important Spring Swing Election Ever the way they were the last 2 SCOWI races.
So can those following closer fill us in -- is this liberal court (either with the current case or future one) going to allow a redraw of the Congressional map?
Considering the fact Democrats are now the higher turnout voters, I'm not sure Republicans are going to win a Wisconsin supreme court seat for the foreseeable future, unless the Democrat truly screws up
Good Politico article on Dan Crenshaw’s primary defeat
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/03/08/dan-crenshaw-defeat-social-media-trump-00817176
Minor correction in the CA-06 item: Bera had been representing the 6th, is now running in the neighboring Third (not Sixth) District, which has a similar lean.
"The only things polled in the latest
@NBCNews
survey that are less popular than AI are the Democratic Party and Iran
https://documentcloud.org/documents/27777984-nbc-news-march-2026-poll-03-08-2024-release-final/ "
https://x.com/akarl_smith/status/2030741731117810131?s=20
We have some long term work to do to solve the fact that it’s Trump’s dismal popularity rather than our own popularity on its merits buffeting us right now
Meanwhile Stephen Colbert is the second most popular person or thing they asked about, after Pope Leo. (They were the only two things that registered net positives.)
An out of office party registering poorly isn't unusual, nor does it preclude electoral success soon after. The GOP's all time lowest point in that survey was in fall 2013, a year before a red wave midterm. I do agree that we need to make a more positive case for Democratic leadership and what we can do once the presidential cycle begins, though just "We didn't do that" may well be enough for the midterms.
What's even worse than the Democratic Party and AI? Democratic politicians and leaders that sell out to AI and big tech special interests. Not limited but including, the ever expanding amount of wasteful and harmful AI datacenters displacing neighborhoods, bailouts and tax cuts to AI companies like Amazon warehouses, and of course, bloody age verification, because surely more surveillance will keep the kids safe.