185 Comments
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Paleo's avatar

If Cooper doesn't run, Jeff Jackson would be the strongest nominee.

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dragonfire5004's avatar

I’d prefer Nickel over Jackson if Cooper doesn’t run. Not so much over personal policy preference or even political strength, but the whole running for another statewide race after just getting elected by voters to do a different job. Also, that he’s needed where he is right now.

I’d be very nervous a majority of voters decide he’s out for himself and not the people in his state if he sought a promotion after just getting elected, handing an easily winnable race to Republicans. If he was already a term in, I’d feel differently.

These next 3.5 years are going to be hell and the only thing to stop some of Trump’s radical insanity, to protect people, is Democratic Attorneys Generals. He has an important job right now that we need him to do well at, over Trump’s term.

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bpfish's avatar

What about Kathy Manning? She was the other Dem removed via redistricting, in addition to Jackson and Nickel. She's now 68 and doesn't appear to be doing anything especially newsworthy. She may have been a better fit for her former district in the triangle than she would be statewide.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

Would also be nice to have Jackson available to be our senate candidate in 2028. We will want someone strong then, and him having completed a full term in state office will help.

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PollJunkie's avatar

Cooper is leaning towards a run as reported by Axios. He must run for the sake of the country. I don't care if we might win with another candidate too, squishy moderates would be more likely vote for him.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Of course it would be best if he ran, but we all remember when an obscure NC State Legislator ran against the formidable Elizabeth Dole. So all is by no means lost if he ends up passing.

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Brad Warren's avatar

Elizabeth Dole was accustomed to being handed cushy gigs (FTC commissioner, cabinet posts, Red Cross presidency) rather than working for them—and did it ever show in that 2008 race!

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Franco Caliz-Aguilar's avatar

Phew. Not Genos or Pats. Still good.

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A Name's avatar

Apparently a former forum poster on talkelections.org who was permabanned for being a tankie and an anti-semite is running for PA-03, or at least someone with the same name as him is. Needless, to say, this is someone primary voters should reject if it is indeed him.

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PollJunkie's avatar

Source?

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ArcticStones's avatar

And name?

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A Name's avatar

okay he posted something about it (it was an unserious joke campaign he never intended to make any effort in, and he will be withdrawing after being notified he broke a rule that could cause him to be fined otherwise)

https://i.ibb.co/QjfJ562j/snowstalker.png

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ArcticStones's avatar

???

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PollJunkie's avatar

Very hard to trust Cygnal's claim of a tie in an informed ballot. Ossoff already reaches 50 percent without excluding undecideds. This should be an easy race for him to win if he plays his cards right.

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Brad Warren's avatar

Georgia is far too purple to be "easy" IMO...but it's clear that he's starting in a strong position.

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PollJunkie's avatar

If Trump, AIPAC and others do jump in to try to oust Massie like the last time, Massie is going to be backed by Elon Musk who has recently tweeted in support of funding him.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Elon Musk says a lot of things – and increasingly much of it is deranged. Time will tell what Musk actually does when push comes to shove.

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sacman701's avatar

I predict that he will do a lot of ketamine.

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ArcticStones's avatar

We have a prophet in the house!

/s

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Buckeye73's avatar

There is a growing divide between MAGA and the more libertarian minded wing of the GOP with Massie, Rand Paul and Elon Musk being against the Trump budget over the fact that the Trump budget would explode the deficit.

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DHfromKY's avatar

That's not my district (I'm in KY-03), but if I were inclined to bet on the KY-04 primary, my money would be on Massie, Trump or no Trump, Musk or no Musk.

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Paleo's avatar

NY Gov Siena: Hochul ahead of Stefanik and Lawler but some 30% undecided. Stefanik up on Lawler in the primary and Hochul up on Delgado/Torres combo.

https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/SNY0625-Crosstabs-070125.pdf

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michaelflutist's avatar

Unfortunate figures on Hochul's apparent popularity among Democrats. I guess it will take a lot of work for Delgado to have a chance.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

Interesting to see the breakdown in that number.

She's at 42-47 overall, 62-27 with dems. 36-54 with men, 47-42 with women. Her two best sub-demographics are self-identified liberals, at 63-28, and residents of NYC, at 51-36. Probably the two parts of the party you'd expect to like her the least.

Shows how little most people follow politics.

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AWildLibAppeared's avatar

It's funny how Stefanik's favorability rating (25-32) is more underwater than Hochul's (42-47) even though fewer people have an opinion on Stefanik. That alone bodes well for a Hochul vs. Stefanik matchup.

I also don't think I've ever seen a poll where a politician has a negative favorability rating, a majority of voters saying they'd prefer to elect someone else (53% prefer someone else)...but then also has a POSITIVE job approval rating of 50-45. Can someone explain?

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MPC's avatar

If Tim Moore becomes the GOP nominee for the Senate seat (and Cooper the Democratic one), it is going to be a NASTY fight for that seat. Cooper butted heads with Moore when he was the state House leader in the NC legislature. And before Moore drew himself a Congressional seat, he and state Senate Phil Berger pushed through a lot of harmful red meat GOP laws with their gerrymandered supermajority and/or Pat McCrory signing off on their bills.

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Paleo's avatar

Fetterman not happy with the long days and nights in the senate vote-a-rama:

“Oh my god, I just want to go home,” Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) told a small gaggle of reporters, including CBS News’ Alan He.

“I’ve missed our entire trip to the beach,” Fetterman said in reference to a family vacation.

Joe Cavello, Fetterman’s former communications director, slammed his ex-boss’ attitude on social media.

“This bill is the biggest transfer of wealth from the working class to the 1% and Fetterman’s message to voter is that he just wants to go home,”

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/the-gops-monstrous-tax-bill-is-keeping-sen-fetterman-from-the-beach_n_6862be75e4b02e5da2065dc5

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ArcticStones's avatar

In the unlikely event that Fetterman runs for reelection, it will be devastating for his primary opponent to run that "I just want to go home" video.

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James Trout's avatar

Back in 2010 when Joe Sestak challenged Arlen Specter in the primaries, it took just ONE video - of Specter saying "changing parties will allow me to get reelected" - to sink Specter.

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AnthonySF's avatar

REEEE-ellll-ECK-ted if you remember the smarmy tone

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Brad Warren's avatar

The ad was kind of a cheap shot (if memory serves me correctly, Specter was trying to *rebut* the charge that his change in party was to get re-elected) but it really didn't change much—by 2010, Specter was loathed by *both* parties and his chances of winning a primary against an opponent were basically nil.

He was also 80 years old and visibly frail from cancer.

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bpfish's avatar

"We're all going to die" and "I just want to go home" are THE political quotes of the year.

Fetterman will also have to answer to everything Bondi and Noem get up to. Bondi in particular was already known to be corrupt and in Trump's pocket when Fetterman voted to confirm her (the only Dem vote).

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PollJunkie's avatar

Waiting for Raygun's new merchandise.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Well, Fetterman chose to run for the Senate. He should have seen this coming!

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michaelflutist's avatar

He should resign, go home and stay there, and concentrate on getting the treatment he needs. What a terrible disappointment he's been!

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Buckeye73's avatar

I still suspect that he has never been the same since the stroke and unfortunately probably will not ever fully recover. He clearly hates his job and hopefully he resigns after 2026 and allows Gov. Shapiro to appoint Connor Lamb to his seat.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I wish he would resign sooner!

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James Trout's avatar

He's ALWAYS had a contrarian for the sake of being contrarian side to him. He wasn't opposed in the 2022 primaries by the Pennsylvania Democratic Party so called "Establishment" for nothing. This didn't start with the stroke.

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PollJunkie's avatar

He was opposed by the establishment. They feared that he would be unelectable. He has always been a contraritarion for the sake of it. He missed 1/3rd of sessions as Lt Gov. He did do good as mayor and on the board of pardons so I'll give him that.

https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-pennsylvania-campaigns-election-2020-conor-lamb-181177864a6efb071c6803644c77bf49

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PollJunkie's avatar

He actually had a more liberal criminal justice record than Mandela Barnes of Wisconsin and repeatedly attacked Shapiro for not agreeing with him during their tenure at the board of pardons and also threatened to primary him. Fetterman has changed a lot.

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James Trout's avatar

His threating to primary Shapiro was alone enough to make so called "Establishment" Democrats mistrust him. Yes he had a reputation as a "progressive" as LG and Mayor of Braddock, but this behavior did not start with the stroke. We shouldn't pretend otherwise.

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PollJunkie's avatar

Good point.

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PollJunkie's avatar

When conservatives are cheering him on and are attacking Democrats as a "cult" for talking about primarying him, you know it's time for him to go. He will no doubt have a lucrative post Senate career.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I'm not convinced he'll have a lucrative post-Senate career. He may not be able to work dependably in any high-paying job, or possibly any job.

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James Trout's avatar

If he represented a small state with no major cities, I could buy that argument. He'll have plenty of firms in Pittsburgh or Philadelphia who could come calling. There's a reason why most of the longest serving US Senators have come from small states.

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michaelflutist's avatar

If he's not capable of working, it doesn't matter how many firms could come calling.

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PollJunkie's avatar

He'll have a lot of offers from thinktanks and lobbying firms specifically focusing on bipartisanship or foreign policy.

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Tigercourse's avatar

It just sounds like he genuinely might not even be up to the task of light lobbying.

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Tigercourse's avatar

Yeah, he doesn't sound like he's even up to gifting.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

A lot of lobbying and related jobs that officials get post-retirement are not demanding jobs. Could see him being able to handle one that requires him to make a few phonecalls per month. Won't make as much as some but it would make him more than 90% of us will ever make.

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Andrew's avatar

He wears hoodies to work. He can come work with me in my cold ass office.

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Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

Merriam-Webster seemed to use their Word of the Day post yesterday to get a dig in against Fetterman over his complaint about missing a vacation: https://www.instagram.com/p/DLhp6IXN4em/?igsh=MXU5bXQzZ3F3ZGx6aA==

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Kevin H.'s avatar

When do they get a pension? That's probably what he's waiting for.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

After five years. If that's what he's after there would be little incentive for him to retire early. That last year would be the election year and if he's not running again there would be little pressure on him as society moves all of its focus to the people that are running.

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Paleo's avatar

NJ 7

Tina Shah, a practicing physician and former Obama and Biden administration appointee, today announced she would seek the Democratic nomination for Congress in New Jersey’s 7th district in a bid to unseat two-term Rep. Thomas Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) in one of the most competitive districts in the nation.

Shah joins a large field of Democrats who want to take on Kean: former U.S. Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett; former Biden administration official Michael Roth; businessman Brian Varela; and former Summit Councilman Greg Vartan.

Former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Ringoes), now the Hunterdon County Democratic chairman, will not seek a rematch with Kean, who ousted him in 2022. Instead, he is eyeing a run in the next-door 11th district next year if Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) is elected governor.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/physician-tina-shah-who-served-in-obama-and-biden-administrations-will-challenge-kean-in-nj-7/

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Brad Warren's avatar

I've always liked Malinowski (it doesn't hurt that he looks a lot like my dad).

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Paleo's avatar

Businessman Brian Varela has raised a striking $700,000 in his first three months as a candidate for the Democratic nomination to take on Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) in New Jersey’s 7th district.

He has about $603,000 cash-on-hand.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/varela-raises-700000-for-kean-challenge-after-strong-fundraising-quarter/

Varela is the former head of the NJ Forward Party.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Re: IA-02: This is exactly the kind of reach district that Democrats might be able to flip in a wave. The Democrats cannot leave seats like that unopposed! Is anyone who even if not well known has something going for them who's running anymore, and if not, could someone else be put on the ballot?

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Bryce Moyer's avatar

Off the top of my head, there’s Abby Finkenauer, but after that 2022 senate primary, she may be done

I have no clue about other quality candidates

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AnthonySF's avatar

I wouldn't quite say say it's a must-win, but it's close to the type of seat we need to flip the house. We are already down 6 seats, plus expect to lose another 5-6 in OH-NC-LA (and TX?) redistricting. There's aren't really more than 15-20 realistic GOP targets beyond the 3 Kamala/GOP seats (and I doubt Fitzpatrick loses). (Personally that's why I think our odds of flipping the House are a bit lower than the conventional wisdom suggests.. the mass number of seats we could target in 2018 just aren't there.)

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michaelflutist's avatar

It's definitely not a must-win, IMO. 2 other districts in Iowa are closer to that. I'd call it a 2nd-tier possible flip.

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Andrew's avatar

Yeah, I think it’s a big reach district but still one where the bottom could slip out from underneath the GOP. Hinson was a former newscaster and has the popular cute blonde look. Looks matter but she could get tossed in a wave.

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dragonfire5004's avatar

This is a district Democrats flip in a 2018 wave, so it’s not necessary for a majority. However, in 2018 a lot of seemingly safe seats for Republicans became competitive for the first time ever or flipped. It’s only in hindsight that we saw them as competitive. Yes, there were 20 districts Democrats won that Republicans held that voted for Hillary in 2016. But that also means half of the pickups in 2018 came from districts that voted for Trump in 2016.

These are exactly the types of districts that saw backlash to Trump’s chaos and a massive turnout gap in favour of Democrats in 2018, putting seats in play or flipping them that weren’t considered in play. Anything Trump +10-15 could be competitive in 2026 and we should act like it just in case a big wave forms.

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Diogenes's avatar

Yesterday the race for District 8 of the Pasadena, Texas City Council was decided. After an election put Bianca Valerio and Bruce Leamon at a tie with 272 votes each, the winner was decided by the toss of a coin. Valerio called heads and won. She will continue to represent District 8.

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NewEnglandMinnesotan's avatar

Honestly they should've just called a new election. Politicians shouldn't be decided by a lucky or unlucky guess on a coin flip.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I guess since this was a special election, having another one might not lower the number of voters that much, and they might even increase because of the tie, but normally, I could see that being a problem.

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Diogenes's avatar

And it might have cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, for a tiny electorate.

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NewEnglandMinnesotan's avatar

True. I wonder if adding an extra voting day might work better? Just telling people "we had a tie, so we're continuing this election for another day."

I don't know if that would cost less than holding an entirely new election.

Normally, I wouldn't support this because people shouldn't be voting with knowledge of the results as that may impact their decision, but in my mind I veiw a tie as effectively equivalent to 0-0, which is where the candidates started at the beginning of the first election day. They would essentially just be competing for the most new voters.

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Diogenes's avatar

The boxer and grill merchant George Foreman, who died in March, had five sons. He named each of them George. To differentiate them, he assigned roman numerals to each. George Foreman IV has announced his candidacy in the special election to replace the late Sylvester Turner in Congress from the 18th District in Texas. He is running as an independent, in a district that the Democratic candidate for president in the past two cycles won by more than 50 points.

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Paleo's avatar

NYC Mayor

Mamdani beat Cuomo in the final round 56-44.

https://enr.boenyc.gov/rcv/026916_1.html

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Yush's avatar

12% Wow!

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Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

Phil Wong won in district 30.

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michaelflutist's avatar

This is NY City Council, right? Was that an open seat, and if so, whose seat had it been?

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Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

Bob Holden was retiring in this purple district.

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Robert Holden, elected in 2017 on the Republican, Conservative and "Dump de Blasio" lines, and on the Democratic, Republican and Conservative lines in 2021. Opponent of congestion pricing and proponent of parking minimums

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michaelflutist's avatar

Really annoying! Is his replacement any better?

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JanusIanitos's avatar

Interesting to note that Mamdani gained more from the final tabulation than Cuomo did.

Cuomo went from 36.5% to 44%, a gain of 7.5 points. Mamdani went from 43.5% to 56%, a gain of 12.5 points. In absolute terms Mamdani gained just under 100k votes and Cuomo just over 50k votes.

Over 50k votes were exhausted without voting for either Mamdani or Cuomo, a bit over 5%. In 2021 it was 140k exhausted votes, which is around 17% by my rough math.

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axlee's avatar

All distributed ranking of those voted for other candidates, it was about 48M 26C 26Exhausted.

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Brad Warren's avatar

Holy crap! I was expecting something closer (not data-based, just gut feeling).

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Paleo's avatar

Trump's budget bill passed the senate 51-50. Collins, Tillis and Paul voted against it. But you know that if her vote had been needed, Collins would have voted yes.

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Diogenes's avatar

Murkowski voted for the bill. She must have believed Trump when he boasted yesterday: “Alaska’s done so well with me. There’s never been a president better to Alaska than me."

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MPC's avatar

I know people are rightfully furious at her, but don't forget her peer Dan Sullivan is up for re-election next year -- he voted for the Big Bad Bill as well.

So if enough AK voters get mad and go to the polls, maybe they can toss out Sullivan with the right Dem candidate. And then toss Begich out as a bonus.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Are a really large number of Alaskans furious at her?

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MPC's avatar

When those Medicaid cuts kick in... they might.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Counterpoint: What did they expect, voting for Trump and other Republicans?

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MPC's avatar

I genuinely think Republicans up and down the ballot next year are in for a 2010 sized shellacking. There will be some "safe" seats Republicans will lose nationwide because either a lot of GOP voters won't turn out or they'll vote for Dems out of anger towards the FDJT regime.

Remember how people thought Dumbya was "invincible" after winning re-election in 2004? Political gravity kicked in and his party lost both the House and Senate two years later. No one expected the Senate to flip in 2006, but it did.

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michaelflutist's avatar

G.W. won a very close reelection in 2004, but I believe his popular vote margin was like 2%, greater than Trump's last year.

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MPC's avatar
Jul 1Edited

More parallels. Although with the political polarization being worse than it was 20 years ago, I hope we can make a dent in that GOP Senate majority.

I think the House is going to flip.

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Stargate77's avatar

2.47%

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dragonfire5004's avatar

I’d hope you are correct, but 60+ seats in this period of hyper polarization seems like a stretch even under the most rosy of circumstances for Democrats in 2026.

The only thing that could realistically be possible to get to that level of wave is one in which Trump oversees a crashed economy, like Bush did in 2006. Which is definitely possible with his tariff madness to be fair, but given how quickly the stock market rebounded based on a promise of progress with 0 actual progress made, I have severe doubts on that.

The rich (aka most stock market traders) will do everything in their power to keep the economy rolling because they got tax cuts to line their pockets with more money, so they can afford financial hits from stock fluctuations due to Trump’s unstableness causing wild swings.

There also isn’t any apparent vulnerability to the US

economy like there was with the mortgage crisis back then. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but I think it’s very unlikely barring a black swan event.

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Avedee Eikew's avatar

That "those people" would suffer not them.

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Brad Warren's avatar

It would be fucking delicious if enough shit hits the fan as a result of Murkowski's vote that it ends up costing *Sullivan* (who normally flies under the radar on these matters) his seat!

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Zero Cool's avatar

No, that’s not Murkowski’s reasoning at all.

She cast her vote because she wanted to give Alaska a waiver from the food aid provision that the original version had. If Murkowski asked to get the provision completely out of the bill, it would have been worse. Much worse.

Murkowski was essentially doing the lesser of two evils here.

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Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

The final attempted bribe medicaid cut-out for Murk was cut by the parliamentarian and she still voted for it under the lie that the House can amend it and send it back (they won't unless they fail to have the votes, and even then they'll only make it more austere). Anyway, this is why it was a good thing Dems didn't overrule the parliamentarian a few years back as her rules cut this bill down too.

Sources: https://nitter.poast.org/BrendanPedersen/status/1940082580402982978#m

https://nitter.poast.org/LisaDNews/status/1940071053016867231#m

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Tim Nguyen's avatar

I truly think Murkowski done come next election. Even if these bribes she made protects Alaska, how long before the consequences of this atrocious bill catch up to her? Rubber stamping this bill essentially means she burned off any left leaning, moderate and independent support she still had in Alaska.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I'm skeptical. Is your suggestion that a further right Republican will win? Because a prediction of a Democratic victory has to consider when the last time was that a Democrat won for President there - Johnson in 1964, right? Yes, we got 1 term of Peltola for House at-large recently, but Democratic victories in state-wide elections are very much the exception in Alaska.

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Morgan Whitacre's avatar

Well, and Begich was elected a democratic senator in 2008 for one term.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Right.

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Morgan Whitacre's avatar

Oh and Governor Tony Knowles in the 90s.

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michaelflutist's avatar

OK, that's too long ago to count for much.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Not really rubber stamping.

Politico’s article illustrates why Murkowski was dealing with a rock and a hard place. It had to do with ensuring support for rural hospitals and food aid programs for the needy in Alaska.

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/07/01/congress/lisa-murkowski-repulican-megabill-alaska-00435150

————————————————

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michaelflutist's avatar

How sincere do you think that rationalization is? She's really expecting compromise from Trump?

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Zero Cool's avatar

Murkowski got what she wanted in the bill specifically for the reasons she asked for.

However, anything else is up for debate, including the Democrats potentially having a better shot at unseating Murkowski.

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Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

Well, she didn't get medicaid cut exemptions.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I'm wondering if there might be a way for states to finance their own Medicaid policies. Like, for example, what is likely to happen to New Yorkers on Medicaid like me and my girlfriend? We have no idea.

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Harrison Konigstein's avatar

I would suggest that if Medicaid/Medicare/Social Security is ruled unconstitutional at the federal level (which is almost certain if a case challenging them reaches the Supreme Court)-a state attempting to finance/recreate them at the state level would also be struck down by the Supreme Court.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Yeah, of course if the Supreme Court goes full Lockner, that's right, but that wasn't my question, and I don't know if that's certain. I think it isn't certain.

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Harrison Konigstein's avatar

It's certain that that would be ruling-what's not certain is that there will be a case that challenges the existence of Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Do you also always win the trifecta at the Kentucky Derby?

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Zero Cool's avatar

She asked for the Medicaid exemptions?

Once again, Murkowski’s faced with a rock and a hard place.

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Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

Yeah and they tried to re-tailor it to meet the Byrd Rule at least once and got rejected each time.

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Andrew's avatar

She seems to know she’s the most powerful Senator when she wants to be. She’s joined at the hip with a bunch of assholes and she represents Alaska of all places. She can get the carve outs and the deals. The quote of her maybe joining Dems bc “what’s best for Alaska” was silly. She’s a Republican and will do it the Alaska Republican way. Fuck all ya’ll, I’m gonna get carveouts and make the rest of the country pay for it. As a Minnesotan, ugh. We all got snow!!!

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Andrew's avatar

Absolutely 1000000% on Collins. She has never been a deciding vote on anything, ever. She do what she do and acts like a moderate but so she can win re-election. It’s all phony as hell. Her never missing a vote is just an advertisement. Whooped fucking doo, she voted for a post office name change.

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PollJunkie's avatar

https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1940038181220425901

Incredible 80k registrations for Democrats in NJ compared to 40k for Republicans after years of decline. We're so back.

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sacman701's avatar

Thermostatic public opinion strikes again.

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Brad Warren's avatar

Hopefully a little of that love spreads next door to Pennsylvania (where Democrats have been bleeding numbers for years, much to Trump and McCormick's benefit)...

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Paleo's avatar

Contested primaries with attractive candidates always help party numbers.

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Essex Democrat's avatar

paleo where in this sometimes wonderful state of ours are you located? Would love to know your thoughts on the Jersey City mayoral race

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Paleo's avatar

I’m in Mercer County. Not a McGreevey fan. Maybe Solomon. What’s your take?

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