Would love to see a standalone piece examining the practice of municipal and county elections being held in off years and the purported motivations and subsequent consequences.
My guess would be that the motivation is always the same--incumbent protection. Those in power want to have a low-turnout election where the majority of voters are their supporters, especially those dependent upon their largess.
It can work the opposite way. My municipality switched to on year elections, arguably, to make it easier for incumbents to slip through without much scrutiny as people are more focused on higher profile races.
One of the justifications I have heard from election officials is that the ballots would be too long (and thus complicated) if elections were combined. The counter argument is what was stated above, that low turnout, also known as friends and family elections, benefits incumbents and insiders. Surely political scientists have studied this phenomenon and also what happens when nonpartisan races appear on ballots with partisan races (how many under votes). These purported nonpartisan races and offices have a lot of impact.
I guess in cities that have less municipal news coverage than my home town of New York, that might happen. I think Republicans prefer New York's off-year elections, because although they couldn't win this one, they probably played a role in helping Giuliani, Bloomberg and Adams to win.
Yes, most of the country is not New York, which has has its benefits (less traffic and noise in smaller cities) and drawbacks (fewer jazz clubs, fewer diners and fewer Chinatowns, no Zabars). There is something to be said for a straightforward ballot, but increased turnout generally benefits everyone. Again, I would like to see some good examples of states and places that have found a happy medium. Maybe moving gubernatorial races to the off years would help, leaving statehouse and congressional to even years. Just an idea.
Why would we want to move gubernatorial races to off years to lower turnout? I don't think the Democrats should start becoming the party of less democracy.
I'm sure that it can work that way, even most of the time. Here, I believe local Dems have realized that moving it to more popular times helps to nationalize the election (particularly under Trump) and thus help paper over the various local problems voters aren't happy about
we debated this extensively in the Los Angeles County Dem Party a while ago. LA City used to have odd year elex, and the proposal was made to move to even numbered years. Both sides claimed their view was better for democracy. I ended up concluding, and arguing, that odd numbered years are better for CANDIDATES, because they don't have to share the spotlight with bigger ticket races. However, even numbered years are better for VOTERS because more voters engage in the ticket, overall, with big names at the top. And as between candidates and voters, I sided with voters. This isn't a study or detailed standalone piece, but I believe that LA City elex turnout has climbed quite a bit. Used to be in single digits for the odd numbered year city council elex and now it's respectable/low 20s, I believe.
Even if Behn loses by single digit percentage, that's going to be a MAJOR fire alarm for the GOP. But if she prevails... hoo boy! More House Rs are going to announce retirement before Christmas Day.
The fact that Joni Ernst and Thom Tillis announced their retirements this past summer was an early indication of voter backlash next year. And that was before the VA/NJ/NYC/PA elections last month.
Yeah, I don't want him pulling any more "drunk on power" garbage like he did with the confirmations of military officers during the Biden Administration!
I am surprised that Chuck Grassley at the overripe age of 92, hasn't declared his retirement yet. At this rate, he's going to outlast Ernst, McConnell and probably Trump. Sad to say this is far from the first time I have seen politicians overstay their time in DC. I have seen Diane Feinstein and Robert Byrd slowly waste away and die in office.
Grassley isn't up until 2028. If he announces his retirement it would be sometime in 2027 or early 2028.
Considering he's stayed in office into his 90s, though, I wouldn't be surprised if he intended to stay there as long as he's alive. Iowa hasn't shown any willingness to vote him out.
It wouldn't be terribly surprising if he just announced an "early" retirement (for his current elected term) effective the end of this congress either haha.
Especially in Democrats outperform in the 2026 election to fill Ernst's open seat. Cook Political report currently rates it only "Likely R" rather than "Solid R".
In previous discussions here, some folks have said Grassley wants his grandson to be appointed to the seat. I don't know what he's waiting for, since the Governor is R as well.
There's no motivation for Reynolds to appoint someone else's grandson and take all the blowback for making a nepo appointment without actually being the one gaining from it.
I think Grassley is going to hold on as long as he can. It would be hilarious if Sand wins the governor's race and Grassley passes away afterward, allowing Sand to appoint a Democrat to fill the remainder of his term.
Him dying during a Sand administration is definitely high on the list of probabilities. Not sure what the replacement rules are, but wouldn’t surprise me if they are changed to benefits R’s in a lame duck next year, should Sand win.
I didn't remember him losing it so badly. I remember him being coherent at his 90th birthday party; I listened to his speech on C-SPAN at the time. At what point in his 90s did it become clear he no longer had it?
When I interned at the Capitol, I periodically saw Thurmond. In 1999, he was walking around unassisted. I was in an elevator, and it stopped on the floor he was on. The doors opened, Thurmond saw me, and he walked away rather than get on the elevator with me.
In the fall of 2001, I saw him walking on the stairs outside one of the buildings, he had assistance. When I saw him in 2002, he was in a wheelchair. I recall people talking about how at the end of Thurmonds senate career, his chief of staff, Duke Short, was actually running things there
Luckily for Ernst, she is 55 and still has time in her life to make a career change after serving just two terms in the Senate.
As with many former members of Congress, including John Boehner and Trent Lott, Ernst could have a lucrative career in lobbying or whatever else that will pay substantially better than what they got while being in Congress.
Look at Kyrsten Sinema. She ended up being a senior adviser to a lobbying firm after she left the Senate.
Ted Kennedy got sick, but I don't think he ever lost his mental faculties while he was actually physically in the Senate. It didn't matter much why he couldn't vote, though, and because he wouldn't retire in a timely fashion, he was replaced by a Republican, as I'm sure all of us who were around then painfully remember.
Tillis is my Senator, so I will devoting considerable time and effort towards electing Roy Cooper to replace him as well as returning Justice Anita Earls to the NC Supreme Court!!
FYI, for any postcard writers out there, Postcards to Swing States has already launched their "News Boosting" postcards to persuadable voters in Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina. They piloted this program in VA this year and I participated in one of the campaigns. I am currently awaiting my NC postcards to get started.
My theory is that it'll be like the GA 6 special from 2017: she'll lose, but it will be a harbinger of Republicans losing conservative suburbs like Clarksville and Franklin come 2026
The fact a race like this with demographics which are far friendlier to Republicans than other suburban seats is even a race is telling of the political climate.
More likely than winning the Old TVA coalition back. Houston County was one of the last Tennessee holdouts for Obama in 2008. I'd be shocked if it was less than 60% Van Epps tomorrow.
This looks set to be a high turnout special election (probably 30%) especially for Tennessee where the ‘22 midterms were only 35% so even a high single digit margin points to blue wave next midterm. Early vote data appears to suggest D39, R46 and I15 based on affiliation and vote history which likely means Behn has a small lead (3ish pts) from early vote. I fancy it will end up R+7 result which spells big trouble for GOP
⬆️"Even if Behn loses by single digit percentage, that's going to be a MAJOR fire alarm for the GOP."
I am hoping for the sake of the people living in TN-07 that Behn prevails; she is exactly the type of person who needs to be in office - she has genuine concern about her constituents and has showed that throughout her tenure in the TN legislature. (I have been on several Zoom calls where she has been the guest). Van Epps was the most MAGA of the 10 or so candidates vying for the GOP nomination in the primary. Of course he was!! 😠
Besides, the TN GOP were up to their dirty tricks sending out postcards with the wrong date for the special election. https://substack.com/@grammamarta/note/c-182147702. No way do I want that sleazy conduct to be rewarded!!
If you have friends or family in TN-07, please text or call them to remind them to vote! And for anyone so inclined, Indivisible is hosting a phone bank for Aftyn this evening 6 - 7:30 pm ET. Register here: https://www.mobilize.us/indivisible/event/868936/.
She has been working to lower the outrageously regressive sales tax on food. I think that is genuine concern.
Hating country music is an OPINION and has little to nothing to do with her ability to do good things for her constituents. But I would love for you to provide a link that proves she has said that or that she hates Nashville. Are you sure this isn't GOP misinformation? The TN GOP sent out postcards saving that the election was Dec 3rd not Dec 2nd.
From the article, Behn: “I hate the city, I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate country music, I hate all of the things that make Nashville apparently an ‘it’ city to the rest of the country,”
I lived in Nashville for seven years and I’m still here every week. I don’t know a person from my life in Nashville that would disagree with that statement. From neighbors to kids’ school friends’ parents that was pretty much the sentiment of all locals. Unless you worked on Broadway (which is what she meant by city - locals know this) no locals go down there.
That is very useful context, although I'm not sure I buy that "I hate country music" is a useful quote for anyone in that district. Any off chance it actually even helps her with low information rural/exurban voters?
Yeah, what a brutal unforced error that was. Why on earth say something like that if you're looking at a career in public service. Ultimately, though, I doubt it has any real impact. I suspect she'll lose by 5-7 points, which would still be a massive win...
There might be public relations case, but not a legal one. Indiana Republicans seem to have some (not much) semblance of concern over how this outwardly looks.
Maybe not next year just due to the circumstances of the election, but certainly into 2028 and the 2030s. In 2014 and 2010, historically bad years for Democrats, the incumbent, Pete Visclosky, held on with about 60% each time.
The town where my father grew up, Hammond, has gone from blue collar white (Polish, in his case) to very Hispanic, which is presumably a net gain for the Democrats. However, the loss of industrial jobs on the South Shore and the general depopulation of the surrounding communities has more than counterbalanced any demographic gains.
Comparing the 2024 results to 2004, it's almost entirely due to the depopulation of Gary and neighboring East Chicago. Harris got barely half the votes in Gary that John Kerry did.
The other suburban towns in Lake County are a mixed bag - some swung to the right, others swung to the left, and they basically canceled each other out. But 20,000 Democratic votes disappearing in Gary/East Chicago from 2004 to 2024 (and very little change in Republican votes) has taken a heavy toll. The growth of St. John, whose population more than doubled from 2004 and 2024 and voted 65-34 Trump, hasn't helped either.
I’d be surprised if they really didn’t have the votes. They have a 40-10 majority in the state senate. 16 republicans would have to vote no to block it. In Missouri there was talk about some republicans voting against the gerrymander, but only a handful ended up voting no.
À propos, since every Democratic or progressive organization gets my info and emails (and usually texts) me, here's an except from an email I got today:
"To save our Democracy, blue states like Colorado must pick up the torch, join the fight, and meet this moment head on.
This is why Fair Fight Colorado is proud to announce that we are introducing the ballot measure that will give every Coloradan a chance to vote on a new Congressional map.
We have the power to level the playing field and counter Trump's power grab with fair maps that will put power back in the hands of the people but it will require an astronomically expensive push to get this on the ballot and in front of Colorado voters."
I actually might send them money, since this is something of tangible importance that probably won't depend on the Supreme Court limiting Executive power.
A longtime Republican state senator had a fake bomb threat on Saturday, and she posted on Sunday that she wasn't backing down on opposing redistricting.
Democracy NC did a thorough writeup about the 2024 general election and how inconsistent county boards implemented voter photo ID (they are required by law to give exception forms to people voting in person without ID). Goes to show how important downballot races are, like Justice Allison Riggs winning re-election by 734 votes after cured provisional ballots and absentee ballots were added.
The fact that NC GOP purposely shortened the ballot curing process from 10 to 3 days during their lame duck supermajority was definitely a response to Anderson Clayton's successful cure canvass campaign that enabled Riggs to keep her seat for a full 8-year term.
Berger and Hall met their match in Anderson Clayton though. I don't think we'll have that kind of 10,000 vote deficit for Justice Earls next year -- and the ones that will hurt from the shortened cure period will be R voters.
Is there a sense of if a special election is held for McDuffie's seat earlier in the year or would it just be vacant until the general in the fall? (His at-large seat is already up with Anita Bonds.) Could augur some interesting possible mayoral outcomes if a more left candidate can win that seat back. Would love if Elissa Silverman could take it back again.
There's almost certainly going to be a Republican candidate who could squeeze into the top two in St Pete. DeSantis's operation is very attentive to downballot, and reclaiming the major city's mayor of his home county (DeSantis grew up in Dundein) will be on his mind.
It’s definitely gotten more Democratic than it was before Trump, my point is more that more that the blurb ruminates on three Dems and I think it’s not unlikely that it ends with a DvR general.
Putting aside the city itself, from U.S. House representation, what is confusing to me is that it seems both FL-13 and FL-14 split up St. Petersburg into two completely different Congressional Districts:
FL-13 is a Lean Red district represented by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna
FL-14 is a Lean Blue district represented by Rep. Kathy Castor
Seems to be that when it comes to the House, blue turf in St. Petersburg is split up between both districts.
According to former Primary School author Nick Tagliaferro, Chicago Ald. Byron Sigcho-Lopez filed paperwork to run as an independent for this seat, home of the infamous Chuy Garcia/Patty Garcia field clearing.
Gonna be hard to win as an indy in the Chicago area, all things considered. All of the DSA electeds - including Sigcho-Lopez - on the City Council run on the Democratic ballot line.
I’m aware this likely won’t end well for Sigcho-Lopez, but I’m glad he did it, if only so voters here have a choice. What Chuy did was awful and the number of Dems defending it is both deplorable and suspicious. Patty Garcia probably being a progressive doesn’t make it right. We have primaries for a reason.
I can see a reason for it; for example, what if someone is elected via write-in votes who doesn't actually want to serve? Not a likely example, sure, but I think it makes sense to only count votes for people who are actually running.
I think in that very unlikely event, there could either be a provision for rerunning the election or for the 2nd-choice candidate to win. But I admit that you have found a theoretical reason, yes.
No, they don't. Chicago City Council elections are non-partisan. If candidates claim to be Democrats, that's on them. They're not listed on the ballot that way.
Sure, except for the Cook County Democratic Party Committee infrastructure, which heavily influences electoral politics; nearly every candidate running as "Democrat for City Council"; the slating process; and other vestiges of the old patronage system that are effectively integrated into the broader political/electoral process.
Still winnable. Stein won it in 2024 and even Sen. Hagan won it when Tillis defeated her in 2014 (and Davis won as Trump carried the seat, so who's to say he can't do it in this environment?)
I think Rs did a bit of dummymander here, esp with the R+10 lean. Wouldn't surprise me if Chuck Edwards loses his seat in a blue wave and Davis keeps his House seat -- meaning the NC GOP gerrymander to nab 11 R seats will be 9 R - 5 D after 11/3/2026.
Morning Joe/The Atlantic's Jonathan Lemire on how Trump's even more in his own bubble now and how it's hurting Republicans desperate for some sign of a course correction especially on the issue of affordability which Trump has dismissed as a "Democrat hoax" and a "con job."
Gone are the temperature checks from the first term such as Trump traveling the country to hold boisterous rallies, dissenting voices within the Administration like Miles Taylor, Olivia Troye, Jim Mattis, etc.
They've been replaced by Trump posting on Truth Social which is even more of a bubble than what Bluesky's loudest critics say, no rallies, Groypers functioning as yes men telling Trump everything is great and Corporate America turning into sycophants so they get what they want from Trump.
This is indeed a problem for political parties and why it’s usually not advisable to insist on a personality cult filled with yes-men because you’re a little bitch too fragile to brook any negative feedback
Whoops. I got that from Rogue DNC, an account with over 230 thousand followers (one of them being Zohran Mamdani). You would think they would be accurate.
I've gone from believing that Mace was simply an opportunist (was Tea Party-curious in her failed 2014 Lindsey Graham primary challenge, feigned "moderate" to win then-swingy-ish and Democratic-held SC-1 in 2020, went full MAGA to fend off a primary challenge in the redder 2022 version), but now I just think she's truly unwell.
I'm not qualified to speculate on a diagnosis, but her behavior goes well beyond anything that can be considered healthy.
Back in 1968, Ed Foreman, who had previously represented El Paso in Texas for a term, ran and won a race for Congress in New Mexico. James Buckley ran for Senator in Connecticut in 1980 after being defeated for reelection in New York in 1976.
He could throw lots and lots of money at his primary and maybe be enough of a sycophant to get a presidential endorsement. And name recognition goes a long way in any primary. I wouldn't dismiss his chances until we see how (if) it shapes up.
It's less the first-order name recognition than it is second-order name recognition from people who will talk about the race. People working on local media coverage will recognize his name, as will local elected officials. He will be talked about more which will create name recognition.
In practice I suspect this is how it works far more often than not. Most American voters do not know the names or faces of many of the people elected to represent them. But people around them do, and that guides the early phases which create the name recognition.
TN-7: A couple of notes regarding polls, as well as the candidates:
- The only non-internal poll was an Emerson poll that had Van Epps +2 over Behn.
- If Behn were to overperform the Emerson poll by the same amount as Abigail Spanberger did in the Virginia governor's race (3%), Behn would win. I don't anticipate Behn overperforming the Emerson poll by 12%, which is what Mikie Sherrill did in the New Jersey governor's race, but I made a mention of it anyways.
- The Emerson poll is more favorable to Behn than the Behn campaign's internal polling.
- Van Epps is not an exceptionally controversial GOP candidate like, for example, Roy Moore or Todd Akin. However, Van Epps is basically a real-life version of Generic Trump-supporting Republican, and he doesn't really have a strong personal brand of his own as a political candidate.
- Behn is very progressive for a candidate expected to overperform a typical Democratic baseline. I'll add that my feed on Threads (an Instagram-aligner short message social media platform) is absolutely full of Behn supporters promoting the campaign's GOTV efforts, which is notable because I only follow a handful of Tennessee-based social media accounts (Behn, Allie Phillips, the Tennessee Holler, and a couple of others).
- Al Gore is going to appear at a virtual GOTV rally for Behn tonight. I don't remember the last time Gore campaigned for a non-presidential candidate for any office.
Any social democrats in the race for Mayor of DC?
You mean progressive and socialists?
I imagine they mean supporters of social democracy
Would love to see a standalone piece examining the practice of municipal and county elections being held in off years and the purported motivations and subsequent consequences.
My guess would be that the motivation is always the same--incumbent protection. Those in power want to have a low-turnout election where the majority of voters are their supporters, especially those dependent upon their largess.
It can work the opposite way. My municipality switched to on year elections, arguably, to make it easier for incumbents to slip through without much scrutiny as people are more focused on higher profile races.
One of the justifications I have heard from election officials is that the ballots would be too long (and thus complicated) if elections were combined. The counter argument is what was stated above, that low turnout, also known as friends and family elections, benefits incumbents and insiders. Surely political scientists have studied this phenomenon and also what happens when nonpartisan races appear on ballots with partisan races (how many under votes). These purported nonpartisan races and offices have a lot of impact.
I guess in cities that have less municipal news coverage than my home town of New York, that might happen. I think Republicans prefer New York's off-year elections, because although they couldn't win this one, they probably played a role in helping Giuliani, Bloomberg and Adams to win.
Yes, most of the country is not New York, which has has its benefits (less traffic and noise in smaller cities) and drawbacks (fewer jazz clubs, fewer diners and fewer Chinatowns, no Zabars). There is something to be said for a straightforward ballot, but increased turnout generally benefits everyone. Again, I would like to see some good examples of states and places that have found a happy medium. Maybe moving gubernatorial races to the off years would help, leaving statehouse and congressional to even years. Just an idea.
Why would we want to move gubernatorial races to off years to lower turnout? I don't think the Democrats should start becoming the party of less democracy.
Not my intent. I was thinking that might increase turnout for other down ballot races.
I'm sure that it can work that way, even most of the time. Here, I believe local Dems have realized that moving it to more popular times helps to nationalize the election (particularly under Trump) and thus help paper over the various local problems voters aren't happy about
we debated this extensively in the Los Angeles County Dem Party a while ago. LA City used to have odd year elex, and the proposal was made to move to even numbered years. Both sides claimed their view was better for democracy. I ended up concluding, and arguing, that odd numbered years are better for CANDIDATES, because they don't have to share the spotlight with bigger ticket races. However, even numbered years are better for VOTERS because more voters engage in the ticket, overall, with big names at the top. And as between candidates and voters, I sided with voters. This isn't a study or detailed standalone piece, but I believe that LA City elex turnout has climbed quite a bit. Used to be in single digits for the odd numbered year city council elex and now it's respectable/low 20s, I believe.
Even if Behn loses by single digit percentage, that's going to be a MAJOR fire alarm for the GOP. But if she prevails... hoo boy! More House Rs are going to announce retirement before Christmas Day.
Oh, wouldn’t that be a thing of beauty! Throw in a few retirements by Republican senators and it would really make my day!
The fact that Joni Ernst and Thom Tillis announced their retirements this past summer was an early indication of voter backlash next year. And that was before the VA/NJ/NYC/PA elections last month.
And surely Senator Tommy Tuberville will drive up the average IQ of the Senate when he retires. The downside is that he’s running for governor.
At least he’ll only be Alabama’s problem then.
Maybe not. Tuberville might well be capable of losing against our former senator, Doug Jones.
I am not giving myself false hope where none exists. Jones only beat a pedophile by 1%.
As much as I'd love this to be true, I just don't see a scenario where we win a Gubernatorial race in Alabama....
Yeah, I don't want him pulling any more "drunk on power" garbage like he did with the confirmations of military officers during the Biden Administration!
I am surprised that Chuck Grassley at the overripe age of 92, hasn't declared his retirement yet. At this rate, he's going to outlast Ernst, McConnell and probably Trump. Sad to say this is far from the first time I have seen politicians overstay their time in DC. I have seen Diane Feinstein and Robert Byrd slowly waste away and die in office.
Grassley isn't up until 2028. If he announces his retirement it would be sometime in 2027 or early 2028.
Considering he's stayed in office into his 90s, though, I wouldn't be surprised if he intended to stay there as long as he's alive. Iowa hasn't shown any willingness to vote him out.
It wouldn't be terribly surprising if he just announced an "early" retirement (for his current elected term) effective the end of this congress either haha.
Especially in Democrats outperform in the 2026 election to fill Ernst's open seat. Cook Political report currently rates it only "Likely R" rather than "Solid R".
www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings
In previous discussions here, some folks have said Grassley wants his grandson to be appointed to the seat. I don't know what he's waiting for, since the Governor is R as well.
There's no motivation for Reynolds to appoint someone else's grandson and take all the blowback for making a nepo appointment without actually being the one gaining from it.
I think Grassley is going to hold on as long as he can. It would be hilarious if Sand wins the governor's race and Grassley passes away afterward, allowing Sand to appoint a Democrat to fill the remainder of his term.
What are the rules on U.S. Senate replacement in Iowa?
Him dying during a Sand administration is definitely high on the list of probabilities. Not sure what the replacement rules are, but wouldn’t surprise me if they are changed to benefits R’s in a lame duck next year, should Sand win.
The worst case of geriatric overstay was probably Strom Thurmond, who seemed barely cognizant when wheeled out onto the Senate floor at age 100.
I didn't remember him losing it so badly. I remember him being coherent at his 90th birthday party; I listened to his speech on C-SPAN at the time. At what point in his 90s did it become clear he no longer had it?
When I interned at the Capitol, I periodically saw Thurmond. In 1999, he was walking around unassisted. I was in an elevator, and it stopped on the floor he was on. The doors opened, Thurmond saw me, and he walked away rather than get on the elevator with me.
In the fall of 2001, I saw him walking on the stairs outside one of the buildings, he had assistance. When I saw him in 2002, he was in a wheelchair. I recall people talking about how at the end of Thurmonds senate career, his chief of staff, Duke Short, was actually running things there
This article in The NY Times describes Thurmond at 98 as basically dysfunctional but refusing to resign because the Democratic governor of South Carolina would appoint his replacement and thereby upset the balance of power in a perfectly divided Senate. https://www.nytimes.com/2001/03/09/us/a-hushed-but-vital-issue-thurmond-s-health.html?unlocked_article_code=1.5k8.wbdb.LVazo55ndLmb&smid=url-share
Luckily for Ernst, she is 55 and still has time in her life to make a career change after serving just two terms in the Senate.
As with many former members of Congress, including John Boehner and Trent Lott, Ernst could have a lucrative career in lobbying or whatever else that will pay substantially better than what they got while being in Congress.
Look at Kyrsten Sinema. She ended up being a senior adviser to a lobbying firm after she left the Senate.
Don't forget Sen. Strom Thurmond (SC) - he was in office through January 3, 2003 at which point IIRC he was 101!!
Ted Kennedy too.
Ted Kennedy got sick, but I don't think he ever lost his mental faculties while he was actually physically in the Senate. It didn't matter much why he couldn't vote, though, and because he wouldn't retire in a timely fashion, he was replaced by a Republican, as I'm sure all of us who were around then painfully remember.
Byrd and Thurmond swapped President pro Tempore 14 consecutive years.
Tillis is my Senator, so I will devoting considerable time and effort towards electing Roy Cooper to replace him as well as returning Justice Anita Earls to the NC Supreme Court!!
FYI, for any postcard writers out there, Postcards to Swing States has already launched their "News Boosting" postcards to persuadable voters in Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina. They piloted this program in VA this year and I participated in one of the campaigns. I am currently awaiting my NC postcards to get started.
For more Info or to sign up to receive postcards:
https://secure.ngpvan.com/NPCPSG0VaUqaLw7w6AbNDg2
I also live in NC -- and I don't claim Tillis or Budd (voted against both of them). I did some letter writing for Vote Forward last year.
My theory is that it'll be like the GA 6 special from 2017: she'll lose, but it will be a harbinger of Republicans losing conservative suburbs like Clarksville and Franklin come 2026
I think she'll lose as well but it'll be close.
The fact a race like this with demographics which are far friendlier to Republicans than other suburban seats is even a race is telling of the political climate.
More likely than winning the Old TVA coalition back. Houston County was one of the last Tennessee holdouts for Obama in 2008. I'd be shocked if it was less than 60% Van Epps tomorrow.
This looks set to be a high turnout special election (probably 30%) especially for Tennessee where the ‘22 midterms were only 35% so even a high single digit margin points to blue wave next midterm. Early vote data appears to suggest D39, R46 and I15 based on affiliation and vote history which likely means Behn has a small lead (3ish pts) from early vote. I fancy it will end up R+7 result which spells big trouble for GOP
⬆️"Even if Behn loses by single digit percentage, that's going to be a MAJOR fire alarm for the GOP."
I am hoping for the sake of the people living in TN-07 that Behn prevails; she is exactly the type of person who needs to be in office - she has genuine concern about her constituents and has showed that throughout her tenure in the TN legislature. (I have been on several Zoom calls where she has been the guest). Van Epps was the most MAGA of the 10 or so candidates vying for the GOP nomination in the primary. Of course he was!! 😠
Besides, the TN GOP were up to their dirty tricks sending out postcards with the wrong date for the special election. https://substack.com/@grammamarta/note/c-182147702. No way do I want that sleazy conduct to be rewarded!!
If you have friends or family in TN-07, please text or call them to remind them to vote! And for anyone so inclined, Indivisible is hosting a phone bank for Aftyn this evening 6 - 7:30 pm ET. Register here: https://www.mobilize.us/indivisible/event/868936/.
Saying she hates Nashville and country music isn’t exactly showing genuine concern for her constituents.
She has been working to lower the outrageously regressive sales tax on food. I think that is genuine concern.
Hating country music is an OPINION and has little to nothing to do with her ability to do good things for her constituents. But I would love for you to provide a link that proves she has said that or that she hates Nashville. Are you sure this isn't GOP misinformation? The TN GOP sent out postcards saving that the election was Dec 3rd not Dec 2nd.
When did she say she hates Nashville?
Some context here: https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/nashville-state-rep-blames-tourists-235656881.html
From the article, Behn: “I hate the city, I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate country music, I hate all of the things that make Nashville apparently an ‘it’ city to the rest of the country,”
I lived in Nashville for seven years and I’m still here every week. I don’t know a person from my life in Nashville that would disagree with that statement. From neighbors to kids’ school friends’ parents that was pretty much the sentiment of all locals. Unless you worked on Broadway (which is what she meant by city - locals know this) no locals go down there.
In other words, it's like a New Yorker saying "I hate Times Square"?
That is very useful context, although I'm not sure I buy that "I hate country music" is a useful quote for anyone in that district. Any off chance it actually even helps her with low information rural/exurban voters?
Yeah, what a brutal unforced error that was. Why on earth say something like that if you're looking at a career in public service. Ultimately, though, I doubt it has any real impact. I suspect she'll lose by 5-7 points, which would still be a massive win...
And the thing is, it should be noted, she isn't running a centrist/corporate Dem campaign.
IIRC, she is focusing hard on affordability, solutions, and refusing corporate PAC money.
Progressive policy ideas can get traction in red areas.
Indiana House Republicans have released a draft congressional map that would shift the state’s delegation from 7-2 to a 9-0 Republican sweep.
https://x.com/VoteHub/status/1995505496548380757?s=20
All 7 GOP seats would be at least Trump+18.
Surely cracking Marion county would be challenged from a VRA perspective.
Assuming the VRA still exists next year.
Marion county is majority white.
But the district, IN 7, isn't.
The district currently centered around Marion county isn't a true VRA district, so there really is no case to make.
There might be public relations case, but not a legal one. Indiana Republicans seem to have some (not much) semblance of concern over how this outwardly looks.
But I thought they still lacked the votes to do this?
This is the House. Supposedly, they don't have the votes in the senate, but who knows. They could end up compromising on an 8-1 map.
With the rate the 1st in the Chicago suburbs is shifting to the right, they can just wait it out these next few cycles and they'll have an 8-1.
Are we sure that will continue next year?
Maybe not next year just due to the circumstances of the election, but certainly into 2028 and the 2030s. In 2014 and 2010, historically bad years for Democrats, the incumbent, Pete Visclosky, held on with about 60% each time.
Any idea why that is? White flight to more business-friendly outer suburbs of Indiana coupled with the depopulation of Gary?
Mostly the decline in Gary and the towns in the next county over, Michigan City and Valparaiso, which used to be pretty blue
The town where my father grew up, Hammond, has gone from blue collar white (Polish, in his case) to very Hispanic, which is presumably a net gain for the Democrats. However, the loss of industrial jobs on the South Shore and the general depopulation of the surrounding communities has more than counterbalanced any demographic gains.
My sense is it’s a bit of both
Comparing the 2024 results to 2004, it's almost entirely due to the depopulation of Gary and neighboring East Chicago. Harris got barely half the votes in Gary that John Kerry did.
The other suburban towns in Lake County are a mixed bag - some swung to the right, others swung to the left, and they basically canceled each other out. But 20,000 Democratic votes disappearing in Gary/East Chicago from 2004 to 2024 (and very little change in Republican votes) has taken a heavy toll. The growth of St. John, whose population more than doubled from 2004 and 2024 and voted 65-34 Trump, hasn't helped either.
I’d be surprised if they really didn’t have the votes. They have a 40-10 majority in the state senate. 16 republicans would have to vote no to block it. In Missouri there was talk about some republicans voting against the gerrymander, but only a handful ended up voting no.
Okay, Colorado. Get off your asses and get a petition drive going.
À propos, since every Democratic or progressive organization gets my info and emails (and usually texts) me, here's an except from an email I got today:
"To save our Democracy, blue states like Colorado must pick up the torch, join the fight, and meet this moment head on.
This is why Fair Fight Colorado is proud to announce that we are introducing the ballot measure that will give every Coloradan a chance to vote on a new Congressional map.
We have the power to level the playing field and counter Trump's power grab with fair maps that will put power back in the hands of the people but it will require an astronomically expensive push to get this on the ballot and in front of Colorado voters."
I actually might send them money, since this is something of tangible importance that probably won't depend on the Supreme Court limiting Executive power.
A longtime Republican state senator had a fake bomb threat on Saturday, and she posted on Sunday that she wasn't backing down on opposing redistricting.
https://x.com/sen_jeanleising/status/1995222973192552786
The IN-8 in that map might be a dummymander if Terre Haute and Evansville shift leftward, but that would be asking for a lot.
Democracy NC did a thorough writeup about the 2024 general election and how inconsistent county boards implemented voter photo ID (they are required by law to give exception forms to people voting in person without ID). Goes to show how important downballot races are, like Justice Allison Riggs winning re-election by 734 votes after cured provisional ballots and absentee ballots were added.
https://democracync.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2024-CBOE-Report-Final_Web.pdf
Nightmare - no doubt, by design.
The fact that NC GOP purposely shortened the ballot curing process from 10 to 3 days during their lame duck supermajority was definitely a response to Anderson Clayton's successful cure canvass campaign that enabled Riggs to keep her seat for a full 8-year term.
Berger and Hall met their match in Anderson Clayton though. I don't think we'll have that kind of 10,000 vote deficit for Justice Earls next year -- and the ones that will hurt from the shortened cure period will be R voters.
Is there a sense of if a special election is held for McDuffie's seat earlier in the year or would it just be vacant until the general in the fall? (His at-large seat is already up with Anita Bonds.) Could augur some interesting possible mayoral outcomes if a more left candidate can win that seat back. Would love if Elissa Silverman could take it back again.
There's almost certainly going to be a Republican candidate who could squeeze into the top two in St Pete. DeSantis's operation is very attentive to downballot, and reclaiming the major city's mayor of his home county (DeSantis grew up in Dundein) will be on his mind.
Though DeSantis grew up in Dunedin near St. Petersburg, didn't he live in a beach town south of Jacksonville while in Congress?
Yes, but it’s not relevant to talking about St Pete lol
Isn’t St. Petersburg considered reliably blue territory in Florida? Or js there something I am not understanding?
Yeah the city itself is. Don’t think a Republican can win in a citywide race anymore, especially in this environment.
Ok, that makes sense then.
It’s definitely gotten more Democratic than it was before Trump, my point is more that more that the blurb ruminates on three Dems and I think it’s not unlikely that it ends with a DvR general.
The blurb ruminates??
Yes.
What do you mean?
Putting aside the city itself, from U.S. House representation, what is confusing to me is that it seems both FL-13 and FL-14 split up St. Petersburg into two completely different Congressional Districts:
FL-13 is a Lean Red district represented by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna
FL-14 is a Lean Blue district represented by Rep. Kathy Castor
Seems to be that when it comes to the House, blue turf in St. Petersburg is split up between both districts.
IL-4:
https://bsky.app/profile/primaryschool.bsky.social/post/3m6ucr6ycos2i
According to former Primary School author Nick Tagliaferro, Chicago Ald. Byron Sigcho-Lopez filed paperwork to run as an independent for this seat, home of the infamous Chuy Garcia/Patty Garcia field clearing.
It was a fool's errand to restart primary school on Ghost and not Substack.
He said he was ending it because of demands in his real life, not readership.
Gonna be hard to win as an indy in the Chicago area, all things considered. All of the DSA electeds - including Sigcho-Lopez - on the City Council run on the Democratic ballot line.
I’m aware this likely won’t end well for Sigcho-Lopez, but I’m glad he did it, if only so voters here have a choice. What Chuy did was awful and the number of Dems defending it is both deplorable and suspicious. Patty Garcia probably being a progressive doesn’t make it right. We have primaries for a reason.
If she's the best candidate, she should still win. I agree that it sucks to not have real elections, though.
I'm curious if there is a write-in option in the primary?
In order for write-in votes to be counted, a candidate has to register with the Board of Elections. Weird, I know.
Yeah, those kinds of restrictions are stupid, in my opinion.
I can see a reason for it; for example, what if someone is elected via write-in votes who doesn't actually want to serve? Not a likely example, sure, but I think it makes sense to only count votes for people who are actually running.
I think in that very unlikely event, there could either be a provision for rerunning the election or for the 2nd-choice candidate to win. But I admit that you have found a theoretical reason, yes.
No, they don't. Chicago City Council elections are non-partisan. If candidates claim to be Democrats, that's on them. They're not listed on the ballot that way.
Sure, except for the Cook County Democratic Party Committee infrastructure, which heavily influences electoral politics; nearly every candidate running as "Democrat for City Council"; the slating process; and other vestiges of the old patronage system that are effectively integrated into the broader political/electoral process.
There is no party slating for aldermanic races in Chicago.
NC-1:
https://x.com/maxpcohen/status/1995462120591261857
Dem Rep. Don Davis is running here after all, and not NC-3.
Still winnable. Stein won it in 2024 and even Sen. Hagan won it when Tillis defeated her in 2014 (and Davis won as Trump carried the seat, so who's to say he can't do it in this environment?)
Took me a second to get this was about Josh Stein and not Jill Stein lol
I think Rs did a bit of dummymander here, esp with the R+10 lean. Wouldn't surprise me if Chuck Edwards loses his seat in a blue wave and Davis keeps his House seat -- meaning the NC GOP gerrymander to nab 11 R seats will be 9 R - 5 D after 11/3/2026.
I think Greg Murphy can be defeated, too - Greenville, Wilson, Kinston and Goldsboro are pretty blue cities that drive a lot of the vote.
Still not really a dummymander in that case though. The House is already beyond lost for the GOP if we're winning the new NC-01 and NC-11.
The thing is that this NC map would look like a totally clean and fair map had they stopped that infuriating split of Guilford county.
Morning Joe/The Atlantic's Jonathan Lemire on how Trump's even more in his own bubble now and how it's hurting Republicans desperate for some sign of a course correction especially on the issue of affordability which Trump has dismissed as a "Democrat hoax" and a "con job."
Gone are the temperature checks from the first term such as Trump traveling the country to hold boisterous rallies, dissenting voices within the Administration like Miles Taylor, Olivia Troye, Jim Mattis, etc.
They've been replaced by Trump posting on Truth Social which is even more of a bubble than what Bluesky's loudest critics say, no rallies, Groypers functioning as yes men telling Trump everything is great and Corporate America turning into sycophants so they get what they want from Trump.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/2025/12/trump-white-house-travel-rallies-isolated/685073/?gift=SCYx-5scVta3-cr_IlgTyV9ZGN5DJNWO16mwr4gjmts
This is indeed a problem for political parties and why it’s usually not advisable to insist on a personality cult filled with yes-men because you’re a little bitch too fragile to brook any negative feedback
SC Gov: A main Mace advisor quits, says Trump should endorse someone else
The GOP is starting to really come apart. Delicious.
FYI it's a senior adviser who quit. He was her campaign manager in 2022 but not this time. https://x.com/IAmNickReynolds/status/1995568889393025431
Whoops. I got that from Rogue DNC, an account with over 230 thousand followers (one of them being Zohran Mamdani). You would think they would be accurate.
To be fair, everyone screws up sometimes.
I've gone from believing that Mace was simply an opportunist (was Tea Party-curious in her failed 2014 Lindsey Graham primary challenge, feigned "moderate" to win then-swingy-ish and Democratic-held SC-1 in 2020, went full MAGA to fend off a primary challenge in the redder 2022 version), but now I just think she's truly unwell.
I'm not qualified to speculate on a diagnosis, but her behavior goes well beyond anything that can be considered healthy.
Not sure if Charlie Crist's tenacity is admirable or pathetic at this point.
I'd say pathetic. Kudos to him for not letting defeat after defeat keep him down, I guess, but he should call it a career and enjoy retirement.
St. Pete mayor: is Brandi Gabbard related to tulsi?
No
The Bubble-Wrapped President
Trump surrounds himself with those who flatter him in places where he is comfortable.
By Jonathan Lemire
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/2025/12/trump-white-house-travel-rallies-isolated/685073/?gift=SCYx-5scVta3-cr_IlgTybm3BdCLoT35xZZJHYW1yEY
We knew that.
CA-48, TX-32:
https://x.com/JakeSherman/status/1995593482996502533
Darrell Issa is considering running for a red seat in Texas (Dallas-area) of all places.
...why?
Must be addicted to electoral politics. But why would Texans vote for him? Aren't there enough assholes for them to choose from already?
But...he's a congressman from a different state? Can he even do that?
It didn’t stop Madison Cawthorn or the parade of other carpetbaggers in FL-19. I believe it is allowed.
You would think as an incumbent from another state there would be a restriction
There wouldn't be a special restriction just for current members of Congress.
Back in 1968, Ed Foreman, who had previously represented El Paso in Texas for a term, ran and won a race for Congress in New Mexico. James Buckley ran for Senator in Connecticut in 1980 after being defeated for reelection in New York in 1976.
The difference being this is an incumbent - it feels unprecedented
I guess at least their new states were neighbors?
He could throw lots and lots of money at his primary and maybe be enough of a sycophant to get a presidential endorsement. And name recognition goes a long way in any primary. I wouldn't dismiss his chances until we see how (if) it shapes up.
How many people northeast of Dallas know who someone from eastern San Diego is? I don't buy it
It's less the first-order name recognition than it is second-order name recognition from people who will talk about the race. People working on local media coverage will recognize his name, as will local elected officials. He will be talked about more which will create name recognition.
In practice I suspect this is how it works far more often than not. Most American voters do not know the names or faces of many of the people elected to represent them. But people around them do, and that guides the early phases which create the name recognition.
lol wut
he currently reps a district not far from me is SoCal...the air is already smelling a little better....good f'ing riddance....if he in fact goes.
TN-7: A couple of notes regarding polls, as well as the candidates:
- The only non-internal poll was an Emerson poll that had Van Epps +2 over Behn.
- If Behn were to overperform the Emerson poll by the same amount as Abigail Spanberger did in the Virginia governor's race (3%), Behn would win. I don't anticipate Behn overperforming the Emerson poll by 12%, which is what Mikie Sherrill did in the New Jersey governor's race, but I made a mention of it anyways.
- The Emerson poll is more favorable to Behn than the Behn campaign's internal polling.
- Van Epps is not an exceptionally controversial GOP candidate like, for example, Roy Moore or Todd Akin. However, Van Epps is basically a real-life version of Generic Trump-supporting Republican, and he doesn't really have a strong personal brand of his own as a political candidate.
- Behn is very progressive for a candidate expected to overperform a typical Democratic baseline. I'll add that my feed on Threads (an Instagram-aligner short message social media platform) is absolutely full of Behn supporters promoting the campaign's GOTV efforts, which is notable because I only follow a handful of Tennessee-based social media accounts (Behn, Allie Phillips, the Tennessee Holler, and a couple of others).
- Al Gore is going to appear at a virtual GOTV rally for Behn tonight. I don't remember the last time Gore campaigned for a non-presidential candidate for any office.
https://www.threads.com/@aftynbehn4tn/post/DRub-h1DYUz?xmt=AQF0nq5AeiVxTFxb64xx2qFxLwNfm_M6Y6VEL5UMqbakm6vG9_I9VVfteK7KG1xhhNoXd4-X&slof=1
What's sad is that Akin probably wouldn't even be considered controversial today. Hell, maybe not even Moore. That's how far the bar has been lowered.
Yeah Akin sounds like a Trump morning forgotten by the next crazy statement in the afternoon.