I think you just about nail it; but, I contend that 2026 has ZERO do with the Democratic party (as long as our candidates are funded and not crazy); imo 2026 is 100% about the chaos of a second term of Trump
Exactly; looking back, compared to this point in time; I gladly take Bush ll over Trump (obviously would prefer a viable alternative from the Democratic party)
What about both Alaska seats? Knocking down - not literally - Dan Sullivan in 2026 and pressuring Lisa Murkowski to at least switch to Independent and caucus with us.
I think Peltola definitely puts either seat into play; Trump has never been very popular in Alaska (or similar type states even if they lean Republican)
What about Lt. Governor David Toland? He's serving as both Lt. Governor as well as KS Secretary of Commerce (the later he's been serving in since 2019).
The one caveat is that Toland has not, to my understanding, run for political office before. He was appointed by Governor Laura Kelly as KS Secretary of Commerce but ended up serving as Lt. Governor after Lynn Rogers was selected by her to be KS State Treasurer (Rogers was Kelly's running mate in the 2018 gubernatorial election).
On the other hand, Toland is in his mid 40's and has a bright future. He previously had served in the Office of Workforce and Development in Washington, DC.
She's consistently shown herself to be very conservative, just not MAGA-aligned and unafraid to piss off their base due to her write-in win a while back.
I don't see any serious possibility of getting her to caucus with us. She genuinely disagrees with us ideologically. Maybe if we had a more common parliamentary system we could get her to do something like confidence and supply...
If you watch the movie 'Game Change' which centers on McCain/Palin 2008, they wanted a running mate to excite the base and Gov. Palin was more conservative than Sen. Murkowski.
However, McCain didn’t win the election so the talk of him getting someone more conservative as his running mate didn’t help him win. Same with Mitt Romney choosing Paul Ryan as his running mate in 2012. Only Mike Pence actually United the conservative base for Republicans in 2016 when Trump selected him as his running mate then.
Hypothetically though, Murkowski would have not caused divisiveness the way Palin did.
I disagree with Alaska being a long shot. Depending on who is nominated, a Likely Republican rating is fitting for now.
Dan Sullivan did win re-election by double digits but there were also no Democratic Candidates running back in 2020.
AK as a state can be a bit swingy towards politicians depending on their appeal. If moderate Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski can weather the storm in recent re-election battles and Mary Peltola can win the House, anything can happen.
How Democrats COULD retake the Senate in 2026.
North Carolina ⬅️💙🇺🇲48
Maine ⬅️💙🇺🇲49
Ohio (long shot) ⬅️💙🇺🇲50
Iowa (long shot) ⬅️💙🇺🇲51
Kansas (long shot) ⬅️💙🇺🇲52
Alaska (long shot) ⬅️💙🇺🇲53
Thoughts?
I think you just about nail it; but, I contend that 2026 has ZERO do with the Democratic party (as long as our candidates are funded and not crazy); imo 2026 is 100% about the chaos of a second term of Trump
You mean like 2006 replacing Bush the Younger with Orange Slob?
Exactly; looking back, compared to this point in time; I gladly take Bush ll over Trump (obviously would prefer a viable alternative from the Democratic party)
What about both Alaska seats? Knocking down - not literally - Dan Sullivan in 2026 and pressuring Lisa Murkowski to at least switch to Independent and caucus with us.
Completely forgot about Alaska. Totally up to Mary Peltola what her 2026 plans are.
Any chance Mark Begich could try and rematch Dan Sullivan 12 years later if she doesn't run?! 💙🇺🇲
I think Peltola definitely puts either seat into play; Trump has never been very popular in Alaska (or similar type states even if they lean Republican)
What about Kansas; Roger Marshall is up in 2026?
Barry Grissom, Nancy Boyda, Sharice Davids spring to mind. Term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly has declined!! 💙🇺🇲
Absolutely, obviously the popular Democratic governor is a great choice and Sharice Davids has proven herself as a vote getter
This is another one that's tricky because I would hate to lose Davids in the house should she come up short for senate.
I don't disagree but sometimes you 'pays your money, youse take your chances'
What about Lt. Governor David Toland? He's serving as both Lt. Governor as well as KS Secretary of Commerce (the later he's been serving in since 2019).
The one caveat is that Toland has not, to my understanding, run for political office before. He was appointed by Governor Laura Kelly as KS Secretary of Commerce but ended up serving as Lt. Governor after Lynn Rogers was selected by her to be KS State Treasurer (Rogers was Kelly's running mate in the 2018 gubernatorial election).
On the other hand, Toland is in his mid 40's and has a bright future. He previously had served in the Office of Workforce and Development in Washington, DC.
I think he's more likely to run for Governor than Senate, but we'll see..
She's consistently shown herself to be very conservative, just not MAGA-aligned and unafraid to piss off their base due to her write-in win a while back.
I don't see any serious possibility of getting her to caucus with us. She genuinely disagrees with us ideologically. Maybe if we had a more common parliamentary system we could get her to do something like confidence and supply...
but she can certainly shiv Trump at every turn
I mean, Murkowski voted against confirming Brett Kavanaugh. That’s saying a lot!
That said, Murkowski has more in common with the late John McCain. Frankly, he should have chosen her as his running mate instead of Sarah Palin.
If you watch the movie 'Game Change' which centers on McCain/Palin 2008, they wanted a running mate to excite the base and Gov. Palin was more conservative than Sen. Murkowski.
Oh sure! I’m aware.
However, McCain didn’t win the election so the talk of him getting someone more conservative as his running mate didn’t help him win. Same with Mitt Romney choosing Paul Ryan as his running mate in 2012. Only Mike Pence actually United the conservative base for Republicans in 2016 when Trump selected him as his running mate then.
Hypothetically though, Murkowski would have not caused divisiveness the way Palin did.
Texas is likely an easier lift than Kansas, especially given the possibility that Paxton will beat Cornyn in the primary.
I don't think Paxton wins that primary, but I'm hoping he does (Paxton is actually beatable in the General)
I think he's probably worse than 50/50, but not too far below it. Maybe 40/60.
agree; I give a slight edge to Cornyn and Trump will play a part(but if Trump is truly horrible in the second term, it might hurt Paxton)
I disagree with Alaska being a long shot. Depending on who is nominated, a Likely Republican rating is fitting for now.
Dan Sullivan did win re-election by double digits but there were also no Democratic Candidates running back in 2020.
AK as a state can be a bit swingy towards politicians depending on their appeal. If moderate Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski can weather the storm in recent re-election battles and Mary Peltola can win the House, anything can happen.