I remember DKE calculation had Biden lost it by about 32K votes.
That was a substantial shift, almost like doubling the losing margin. Cannot be explained away as a more R leaning migration into Yavapai voter pool. The county level she only lost Yavapai by a margin some 8k-9k votes larger than 2020.
How did Gallego fare? Would expect there he ran around or slightly worse than Biden 2020, given his statewide margin with more R leaning migration there.
The write-up on AZ02. Did you mean Trump over Harris by 15pt in 2024? He beat Biden by 8pt there in 2020.
You are right. Thank you for the catch, I've corrected!
I remember DKE calculation had Biden lost it by about 32K votes.
That was a substantial shift, almost like doubling the losing margin. Cannot be explained away as a more R leaning migration into Yavapai voter pool. The county level she only lost Yavapai by a margin some 8k-9k votes larger than 2020.
Might also be explained by Native American voters in the district swinging to the right.
How did Gallego fare? Would expect there he ran around or slightly worse than Biden 2020, given his statewide margin with more R leaning migration there.