Surprised so few people have posted about this election. In a world of right wing tyranny, I can definitively tell you the story of the 2025 Election in Canada wrapped up in a nice bow:
Liberal Government for Canada, Mark Carney will be the next Prime Minister (no call on majority/minority yet)
Surprised so few people have posted about this election. In a world of right wing tyranny, I can definitively tell you the story of the 2025 Election in Canada wrapped up in a nice bow:
Liberal Government for Canada, Mark Carney will be the next Prime Minister (no call on majority/minority yet)
Why? There is 3 leftwing ish parties in Canada (BQ is very protective/right wing on preserving Quebecs culture, but mostly left). That vote has entirely collapsed to a level Canada hasn’t seen in nearly 100 years. Conservatives gained vote share over 2021 by 4 points. They have more vote share tonight than 1 of Harper’s terms, which would be enough for a majority in any other election.
But the left wing 3rd party vote all migrated to the Liberals and in Quebec especially (the best projected night they’ve also had in 50+ years), the BQ vote collapse allowed Liberals to sweep there (44/78 seats!). Same story everywhere. NDP/BQ/GRN vote share down, Liberal vote share way up. Conservatives up a little in vote share from some blue collar NDP/GRN to CON vote, but not enough with only 1 left wing opposing party in a fairly left/progressive country.
I don’t know how to post photos, otherwise I’d share the numbers, but here they are (so far):
This is precisely what makes this election so fascinating to me. This is not reactionary behavior -- this is people looking at a wide range of choices, some of which they have supported for decades -- and saying, no -- we're gonna back the Liberals this time because they represent the democratic, strong Canada that we want. Trump may have provided a picture of the alternative, but it was Carney, who in 37 days, sold the vision and brought the nation together.
You are precisely correct on all of the above. 1 of which was myself. I’ve never voted for the Liberals federally before (I’m dual citizen), but tonight I did both because Carney has impressed me, Poilievre scares me and Trump managing to get some of the most friendly, laid back people in the world actually pissed off (they weren’t when he was elected President) got most of left Canada to lend their vote this time to the Liberals.
I don’t know if I’ll vote for them again, or just once, but this time I did so proudly (even though I’m extremely pro-climate action and his flip flop on the carbon tax disappointed me). The economy is being held hostage by the bully in the White House and the next PM of Canada needed the strongest mandate possible to fight for the country with solid support behind him.
I don’t think anyone in fairness could have predicted on 11/5 that Trump would muse, let alone exhaust so much time, upon a previously unstated desire to absorb Canada as a state and then never shut up about it
Oh and one other note I thought people here would enjoy this (it’s EARLY STILL, leads can change), Poilievre is currently losing his seat in Carleton to the Liberals. He won by 21% in 2021.
Looking to the next general election, this feels like a setup for a Liberal collapse and a Conservative win. The lefty voters who consolidated the Liberal vote are going to inevitably be annoyed with a centrist like Carney, Trump will almost certainly be less of a focal point, and Liberals will be trying to win their fifth election in a row. Doug Ford just won an easy reelection in Ontario, the Conservatives are not dead by any means. I'm also getting 2011 NDP sweeping Quebec vibes, how much is that support going to hold up?
How many years ahead would the next regularly scheduled election be? The world is very unpredictable, so who knows? The outcome that just occurred looked nearly impossible a few months ago.
Surprised so few people have posted about this election. In a world of right wing tyranny, I can definitively tell you the story of the 2025 Election in Canada wrapped up in a nice bow:
Liberal Government for Canada, Mark Carney will be the next Prime Minister (no call on majority/minority yet)
Why? There is 3 leftwing ish parties in Canada (BQ is very protective/right wing on preserving Quebecs culture, but mostly left). That vote has entirely collapsed to a level Canada hasn’t seen in nearly 100 years. Conservatives gained vote share over 2021 by 4 points. They have more vote share tonight than 1 of Harper’s terms, which would be enough for a majority in any other election.
But the left wing 3rd party vote all migrated to the Liberals and in Quebec especially (the best projected night they’ve also had in 50+ years), the BQ vote collapse allowed Liberals to sweep there (44/78 seats!). Same story everywhere. NDP/BQ/GRN vote share down, Liberal vote share way up. Conservatives up a little in vote share from some blue collar NDP/GRN to CON vote, but not enough with only 1 left wing opposing party in a fairly left/progressive country.
I don’t know how to post photos, otherwise I’d share the numbers, but here they are (so far):
LIB +23 seats
CON -5 seats
BQ -12 seats
NDP -6 seats
This is precisely what makes this election so fascinating to me. This is not reactionary behavior -- this is people looking at a wide range of choices, some of which they have supported for decades -- and saying, no -- we're gonna back the Liberals this time because they represent the democratic, strong Canada that we want. Trump may have provided a picture of the alternative, but it was Carney, who in 37 days, sold the vision and brought the nation together.
You are precisely correct on all of the above. 1 of which was myself. I’ve never voted for the Liberals federally before (I’m dual citizen), but tonight I did both because Carney has impressed me, Poilievre scares me and Trump managing to get some of the most friendly, laid back people in the world actually pissed off (they weren’t when he was elected President) got most of left Canada to lend their vote this time to the Liberals.
I don’t know if I’ll vote for them again, or just once, but this time I did so proudly (even though I’m extremely pro-climate action and his flip flop on the carbon tax disappointed me). The economy is being held hostage by the bully in the White House and the next PM of Canada needed the strongest mandate possible to fight for the country with solid support behind him.
Do you usually vote green?
NDP
Nice! Well, good on you, and good on Canada 🇨🇦.
I don’t think anyone in fairness could have predicted on 11/5 that Trump would muse, let alone exhaust so much time, upon a previously unstated desire to absorb Canada as a state and then never shut up about it
Oh and one other note I thought people here would enjoy this (it’s EARLY STILL, leads can change), Poilievre is currently losing his seat in Carleton to the Liberals. He won by 21% in 2021.
Looking to the next general election, this feels like a setup for a Liberal collapse and a Conservative win. The lefty voters who consolidated the Liberal vote are going to inevitably be annoyed with a centrist like Carney, Trump will almost certainly be less of a focal point, and Liberals will be trying to win their fifth election in a row. Doug Ford just won an easy reelection in Ontario, the Conservatives are not dead by any means. I'm also getting 2011 NDP sweeping Quebec vibes, how much is that support going to hold up?
How many years ahead would the next regularly scheduled election be? The world is very unpredictable, so who knows? The outcome that just occurred looked nearly impossible a few months ago.