Morning Digest: New Jersey is poised to elect its first Latina member of Congress

A twist: This isn't the first time Nellie Pou has been tapped to succeed Bill Pascrell

State Sen. Nellie Pou, Democratic nominee for New Jersey’s 9th Congressional District (credit: Nellie Pou Facebook)

Leading Off

NJ-09

Democratic state Sen. Nellie Pou is poised to become the first Latina to represent New Jersey in Congress following Thursday's nominating convention, at which local party officials picked her to replace the late Rep. Bill Pascrell on the November ballot. The 9th District, which includes Paterson and nearby communities in North Jersey, favored Joe Biden 59-40 in 2020, so Pou should have no trouble beating Republican Billy Prempeh in the general election.

The ascent of Pou, who is of Puerto Rican descent, comes nearly three decades after she convinced Democratic powerbrokers to choose her to succeed Pascrell the first time. Pou was human resources director in Paterson and already a veteran activist in 1996 when Pascrell, who was both the city's mayor and local state Assembly member, defeated Republican Rep. Bill Martini in a close race for Congress.

It was up to the Democratic Party in Passaic County to appoint a new lawmaker for the final year of Pascrell's term (New Jersey is one of the few states that holds legislative elections in odd-numbered years). Pou was an early frontrunner, but the intense jockeying for the position threatened to pit different parts of the Democratic coalition against one another.

Paterson Councilwoman Vera Ames argued that the seat should go to a Black politician like herself. Summarizing her sentiment at the time, The Record said Ames believed "Latinos are overstating their role in Pascrell's victory." William Pascrell III, who had just run his father's successful congressional effort, and Hawthorne Councilwoman Lois Cuccinello, a Black officeholder who was close to unions, expressed interest in the appointment as well.

The elder Pascrell added to the intrigue when, to the frustration of Latino leaders who wanted him to endorse Pou, he chose to remain neutral. One prominent activist warned the incoming congressman that, if Pou were passed over, the area's large Latino community would hold it against the incoming congressman.

Pou's would-be rivals, however, gradually stepped aside as the day for the decision drew closer. Pou also gained strength when two powerful labor organizations made it clear they were supporting her.

The Passaic County Democratic Committee went on to unanimously choose her to fill Pascrell's seat in early 1997, which made her both the first woman and first Hispanic person to represent the area in the legislature. Pou also became the second Latina to serve in the New Jersey legislature; the first was Nilsa Cruz-Perez, who had joined the Assembly two years earlier and currently serves in the state Senate.

Pou easily won a full term in 1997 and never had trouble keeping her seat, though she'd have to wait another four years for her party to finally take control of the Assembly. In 2011, she likewise had no problem winning a promotion to the state Senate.

(The person who was appointed to Pascrell's other old post after his 1996 election to Congress did not have such a successful political career. The Paterson City Council chose one of its members, Marty Barnes, to serve as the new mayor. Barnes ultimately lost reelection in 2002 and pled guilty to federal corruption days after leaving office, serving two-and-a-half years in prison. He died in 2012.) 

Pascrell's death last Wednesday came barely a week before the deadline for parties to fill vacancies in the general election, and Pou quickly made it clear she wanted to succeed him. She wasn't alone, though, as Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh and Assemblymembers Shavonda Sumter and Benjie Wimberly all said they wanted to serve the 9th District.

Sumter even appeared to be the frontrunner after she gained the endorsement of Passaic County Democratic Chairman John Currie, whose county is home to all four would-be candidates. (Pascrell's longtime base of Paterson is also in Passaic.) Everything changed on Monday, though, when Currie and the chairs of the other two local county parties—Bergen’s Paul Juliano and Hudson’s Craig Guy—threw their support behind Pou. 

The New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein reported that the trio had decided that, in exchange for Juliano not fielding a rival candidate from Bergen County, they'd all consolidate behind Pou. What followed was essentially a repeat of the 1997 race as Sayegh, Sumter, and Wimberly each dropped out, leaving Pou as the last candidate standing ahead of Thursday's party gathering.

Election Night

Massachusetts

Tuesday is the penultimate night of the 2024 primary season, but there isn't much to watch this year in Massachusetts. Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren and each of the nine members of the Bay State's all-Democratic House delegation are seeking reelection, and none of them faces any serious opposition in either the primary or general election.

There will be more to see the following week when Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island voters select their nominees for congressional and state-level offices. This final set of states will hold their primaries on Sept. 10―which happens to be the same evening that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are set to debate.

House

AL-02

The political arm of the Southern Poverty Law Center has released an early August survey that shows Democrat Shomari Figures defeating Republican Caroleene Dobson 51-39 in Alabama's 2nd District, a constituency that was redrawn this cycle by a federal court. The poll, conducted by the Democratic firm Impact Research, also finds Kamala Harris up by a similar 51-40 spread; Joe Biden scored a 56-43 victory in 2020 in the new version of the district, which is now plurality Black.

This poll for the SPLC, which does not list Figures on its endorsement page, is one of the few we've seen of this brand-new open seat, which has long looked like a Democratic pickup. (After the new lines were put in place, Republican Rep. Barry Moore decided to run in the deep red 1st District rather than seek reelection here and defeated fellow Rep. Jerry Carl in the GOP primary.)

A late July internal poll from the Republican pollster Strategy Management for Alabama Families PAC gave Figures a small 37-34 lead, but the large number of undecided voters made it hard to draw any conclusions from that survey.

NY-22

Investigators hired by the New York State Senate concluded that Democratic state Sen. John Mannion did not violate the body's anti-discrimination or harassment rules, according to an unreleased report obtained by the New York Times. 

Several former Mannion staffers published an open letter days before the June primary accusing the senator of creating a hostile work environment, allegations the candidate denied. Mannion went on to decisively win the nomination to take on freshman GOP Rep. Brandon Williams in the 22nd District, a Syracuse-based seat that Joe Biden took 55-43 four years ago.

Ballot Measures

CO Ballot

Colorado official confirmed Thursday that backers of a ballot initiative to adopt a top-four primary had submitted enough signatures to make the general election ballot.

Initiative 310, which would apply to congressional and state-level offices, would establish a system similar to that used in Alaska. It would abolish party primaries and instead require all the candidates to face off on a single ballot. The four contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, would then face off in a ranked-choice general election.

But even if a majority approves Initiative 310, a bipartisan law passed earlier this year by the legislature could indefinitely delay its implementation. This new rule bars ranked-choice voting from being used statewide until local governments in at least a dozen counties that meet certain demographic criteria adopt it for their own elections.

Several of these communities are in dark red areas, however, and broad hostility to ranked-choice voting among Republicans makes it unlikely that local leaders will want to put it in place for themselves.

Democratic Gov. Jared Polis said that he signed the bill reluctantly, saying he believes the provisions mandating a test period for ranked-choice voting could violate state law. The governor, though, also said that, if Initiative 310 passes, he'd "take prompt and good faith actions" to realize its goals by 2028.

The campaign to pass Initiative 310 is largely being financed by wealthy former healthcare CEO Kent Thiry, a Republican-turned-independent who recently informed Colorado Public Radio that, despite intense speculation to the contrary, he wouldn't run for governor in 2026. Thiry instead told reporter Andrew Kenney that he hoped a win for his ballot initiative would inspire similar efforts in other states.

MO Ballot

YouGov, polling on behalf of St. Louis University, finds a 52-34 majority in support of a proposed constitutional amendment that would restore abortion rights in Missouri. This survey, which is the first we've seen since Amendment 3 qualified for the November ballot earlier this month, shows the measure winning even as voters decisively back Republicans in other key races. Donald Trump outpaces Kamala Harris 54-41, while GOP Sen. Josh Hawley and the party's nominee for governor, Mike Kehoe, enjoy comparable leads in their respective races.

Judges

MI Supreme Court

The two Democrats running for the Michigan Supreme Court this year, Justice Kyra Harris Bolden and Kimberly Ann Thomas, have launched a new TV ad campaign backed by a $1.5 million buy, which the state Democratic Party says is the largest ever for this office. The party also tells the Michigan Advance's Anna Liz Nichols that it will spend more than $1 million on digital advertising through Election Day.

There is no word yet of any ads supporting either of the Republican candidates, Andrew Fink and Patrick William O'Grady, who barely had any money between them before they won their party's nomination at last weekend's GOP convention. It remains to be seen whether major donors will make up the gap, especially since Republicans would need to win both contests to roll back the Democrats' 4-3 majority.

Poll Pile

• AZ-Sen: Noble Predictive Insights: Ruben Gallego (D): 47, Kari Lake (R): 40 (47-44 Trump in two-way, 44-43 Trump with third-party candidates) (May: 46-36 Gallego)

• MI-Sen: Fabrizio Ward (R) for the Pinpoint Policy Institute: Elissa Slotkin (D): 43, Mike Rogers (R): 43 (48-46 Trump in two-way, 44-43 Harris with third-party candidates) 

• PA-Sen: Fabrizio Ward (R) for the Pinpoint Policy Institute: Bob Casey (D-inc): 46, Dave McCormick (R): 43 (47-46 Trump in two-way, 43-43 tie with third-party candidates) 

• WI-Sen: Fabrizio Ward (R) for the Pinpoint Policy Institute: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 48, Eric Hovde (R): 43 (49-45 Harris in two-way, 47-42 Harris with third-party candidates) 

Ad Roundup

• MD-Sen: Angela Alsobrooks (D) - anti-Larry Hogan (R)

• MI-Sen: DSCC - anti-Mike Rogers (R)

• MT-Sen: Tim Sheehy (R) - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc)

• AZ-06: DCCC - anti-Juan Ciscomani (R-inc)

• IA-03: Lannon Baccam (D)

• ME-02: Jared Golden (D-inc)

• MI-10: John James (R-inc)

• NC-01: Don Davis (D-inc)

• PA-17: Chris Deluzio (D-inc)