AK-Gov: The campaign of Republican Dave Bronson said Democrat Tom Begich would drop out of the race by the August 31 deadline. Begich has not confirmed this, but it's widely known he brokered a deal with Jonathan Kriess-Tomkins to potentially do so.
It would probably be better if he stayed in with RCV, honestly.
there is always a % of people who dont rank a second or third choice in ranked choice voting, either because they don't understand the system or simply because they dont want to
if the GOP has 3 candidates and Kriess-Tomkins is at 47 or 48% of the vote he can win through ballot exhaustion
if Kriess-Tomkins and Begich combine for that amount there will be some ballot exhaustion on their side, enough to let the GOP win
I agree consolidation makes sense as a strategy (although I don't like it), but when the two candidates are so close together and represent different parts of the party (geographically and to some extent ideologically), it's impossible to say who the "stronger" candidate is. The near-complete lack of general election scenario polling is a problem here, there's only two relevant polls: One showing Begich defeating Wilson after Bishop and Bronson votes are distributed, and one with 6 candidates, Begich, Wilson, Bishop, Bronson, Walker, and JKT, showing Begich defeating Wilson in the final round, with Bishop and Walker votes slightly more likely to preference Begich than JKT. The latter poll clearly underestimated JKT's support, so take it with a grain of salt, but the lack of direct head-to-head polling with JKT is frustrating.
Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, who is on the list of seats most likely to flip in 2026, seems to have taken a page out of the Santos and Majewski playbook by lying about his previous position as a real estate salesperson.
Last Alaska vote dump, results should be finalized now:
Senate: Leslie beats out Heikes by exactly 100 votes for 4th slot, both with 1.1% of the total vote. Meanwhile, Peltola is at 49.5%. Sullivan the S is at 41.4%, and Sullivan the J is at 2.5%
Governor: Both JKT and Begich gain 0.3%, with Wilson at 10.0%, following by Bronson at 4th with 8.1%, Taylor 5th with 7.3%, and Bishop 6th with 7.0%. Who knows who will actually be on the general election ballot, could be someone further down.
House: Begich leads Hill 44.6% to 32.5%, with the already dropped out Schultz as 8.1%, Hafner at 3.8%, and whoever John Williams is in 5th with 2.7%.
Caveats about primary vs. general turnout apply, but a near-majority for Peltola is a very good starting place. Sullivan's showing is rather weak for an incumbent in a state that (usually) favours his party, and I don't think he can blame that entirely on name confusion.
LA-5: The Republican Party of Louisiana endorsed Misti Cordell, the chair of the state Board of Regents. Cordell is an ally of Gov. Jeff Landry. She faces state Reps. Mike Echols, Gabe Firment and Pat Moore (the only prominent Democrat as far as I know) as well as state Sen. Stewart Cathey in the November jungle primary.
First, thanks to a TDB reader for their sponsorship for me here, which both De-lurks me and helps out TDB.
Some SC poll comments...
Interesting timing on the release of the Annie Andrews poll in SC just after the R runoff. I know many Dems vote in the R primary, either because of local issues or to try to minimize the damage of getting wacko R elected. If she'd released it earlier, we would have known who would have been easier for her to beat. Though perhaps the polling showed Graham would win and be the easiest for Andrews to beat and that Dem voters in the runoff would sopport her more. But a lot of Dems I know voted for Norman because they thought he'd be easier to beat or wouldn't make it 6 years anyway. If her polling showed her doing better against Norman, then I think her release timing was a mistake. Guess we'll never know.
Friday's Allen Wilson 50--Jermaine Johnson 42 poll seems about right. To tighten the margin, Johnson would need to get on the air, but I don't think he has any $. Bashing Wilson over corruption in the AG office, especially over issues where women were cheated or killed by good old boys, would align with women who are excited about Annie Andrews and help him/both out, I think.
Since N’Kiyla Thomas won the Democratic nomination, this TikTok video she made last year has gotten renewed attention. And not in the best way.
Thomas here is acting in a Mean Girls scenario where she is cutting up pictures of Markwayne Mullin when he was still a Senator out of frustration with him.
https://www.reddit.com/r/YAPms/comments/1w0zl3f/democrat_tom_begich_is_reportedly_planning_to/
AK-Gov: The campaign of Republican Dave Bronson said Democrat Tom Begich would drop out of the race by the August 31 deadline. Begich has not confirmed this, but it's widely known he brokered a deal with Jonathan Kriess-Tomkins to potentially do so.
It would probably be better if he stayed in with RCV, honestly.
Its probably for the best he drop out,
there is always a % of people who dont rank a second or third choice in ranked choice voting, either because they don't understand the system or simply because they dont want to
if the GOP has 3 candidates and Kriess-Tomkins is at 47 or 48% of the vote he can win through ballot exhaustion
if Kriess-Tomkins and Begich combine for that amount there will be some ballot exhaustion on their side, enough to let the GOP win
I agree consolidation makes sense as a strategy (although I don't like it), but when the two candidates are so close together and represent different parts of the party (geographically and to some extent ideologically), it's impossible to say who the "stronger" candidate is. The near-complete lack of general election scenario polling is a problem here, there's only two relevant polls: One showing Begich defeating Wilson after Bishop and Bronson votes are distributed, and one with 6 candidates, Begich, Wilson, Bishop, Bronson, Walker, and JKT, showing Begich defeating Wilson in the final round, with Bishop and Walker votes slightly more likely to preference Begich than JKT. The latter poll clearly underestimated JKT's support, so take it with a grain of salt, but the lack of direct head-to-head polling with JKT is frustrating.
News from PA-07
Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, who is on the list of seats most likely to flip in 2026, seems to have taken a page out of the Santos and Majewski playbook by lying about his previous position as a real estate salesperson.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/27/ryan-mackenzie-pennsylvania-congressman-resume
Another one bites the dust.
"Oh we've been living here in Allentown
And our congressman's a big lying clown
Vote for Bob Brooks and send him awayyy-ay-ay-ay-ay-ay-ay-ay-ay-ay-ay-ay-ay"
(Apologies to Billy Joel)
Last Alaska vote dump, results should be finalized now:
Senate: Leslie beats out Heikes by exactly 100 votes for 4th slot, both with 1.1% of the total vote. Meanwhile, Peltola is at 49.5%. Sullivan the S is at 41.4%, and Sullivan the J is at 2.5%
Governor: Both JKT and Begich gain 0.3%, with Wilson at 10.0%, following by Bronson at 4th with 8.1%, Taylor 5th with 7.3%, and Bishop 6th with 7.0%. Who knows who will actually be on the general election ballot, could be someone further down.
House: Begich leads Hill 44.6% to 32.5%, with the already dropped out Schultz as 8.1%, Hafner at 3.8%, and whoever John Williams is in 5th with 2.7%.
Caveats about primary vs. general turnout apply, but a near-majority for Peltola is a very good starting place. Sullivan's showing is rather weak for an incumbent in a state that (usually) favours his party, and I don't think he can blame that entirely on name confusion.
Hopefully John Williams is orchestrating a version of The Force Awakens so Begich (the R) gets the Hook and ends up Home Alone.
https://www.shreveporttimes.com/story/news/2026/08/28/louisiana-republican-party-makes-endorsement-in-congressional-race-to-replace-julia-letlow/91505410007
LA-5: The Republican Party of Louisiana endorsed Misti Cordell, the chair of the state Board of Regents. Cordell is an ally of Gov. Jeff Landry. She faces state Reps. Mike Echols, Gabe Firment and Pat Moore (the only prominent Democrat as far as I know) as well as state Sen. Stewart Cathey in the November jungle primary.
First, thanks to a TDB reader for their sponsorship for me here, which both De-lurks me and helps out TDB.
Some SC poll comments...
Interesting timing on the release of the Annie Andrews poll in SC just after the R runoff. I know many Dems vote in the R primary, either because of local issues or to try to minimize the damage of getting wacko R elected. If she'd released it earlier, we would have known who would have been easier for her to beat. Though perhaps the polling showed Graham would win and be the easiest for Andrews to beat and that Dem voters in the runoff would sopport her more. But a lot of Dems I know voted for Norman because they thought he'd be easier to beat or wouldn't make it 6 years anyway. If her polling showed her doing better against Norman, then I think her release timing was a mistake. Guess we'll never know.
Friday's Allen Wilson 50--Jermaine Johnson 42 poll seems about right. To tighten the margin, Johnson would need to get on the air, but I don't think he has any $. Bashing Wilson over corruption in the AG office, especially over issues where women were cheated or killed by good old boys, would align with women who are excited about Annie Andrews and help him/both out, I think.
OK-SEN:
Since N’Kiyla Thomas won the Democratic nomination, this TikTok video she made last year has gotten renewed attention. And not in the best way.
Thomas here is acting in a Mean Girls scenario where she is cutting up pictures of Markwayne Mullin when he was still a Senator out of frustration with him.
https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/watch-ok-democrats-tiktok-showing-her-having-a-bizarre-mean-girls-style-meltdown-goes-viral-after-she-wins-senate-primary/