AK-Gov: The campaign of Republican Dave Bronson said Democrat Tom Begich would drop out of the race by the August 31 deadline. Begich has not confirmed this, but it's widely known he brokered a deal with Jonathan Kriess-Tomkins to potentially do so.
It would probably be better if he stayed in with RCV, honestly.
there is always a % of people who dont rank a second or third choice in ranked choice voting, either because they don't understand the system or simply because they dont want to
if the GOP has 3 candidates and Kriess-Tomkins is at 47 or 48% of the vote he can win through ballot exhaustion
if Kriess-Tomkins and Begich combine for that amount there will be some ballot exhaustion on their side, enough to let the GOP win
I agree consolidation makes sense as a strategy (although I don't like it), but when the two candidates are so close together and represent different parts of the party (geographically and to some extent ideologically), it's impossible to say who the "stronger" candidate is. The near-complete lack of general election scenario polling is a problem here, there's only two relevant polls: One showing Begich defeating Wilson after Bishop and Bronson votes are distributed, and one with 6 candidates, Begich, Wilson, Bishop, Bronson, Walker, and JKT, showing Begich defeating Wilson in the final round, with Bishop and Walker votes slightly more likely to preference Begich than JKT. The latter poll clearly underestimated JKT's support, so take it with a grain of salt, but the lack of direct head-to-head polling with JKT is frustrating.
Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, who is on the list of seats most likely to flip in 2026, seems to have taken a page out of the Santos and Majewski playbook by lying about his previous position as a real estate salesperson.
Last Alaska vote dump, results should be finalized now:
Senate: Leslie beats out Heikes by exactly 100 votes for 4th slot, both with 1.1% of the total vote. Meanwhile, Peltola is at 49.5%. Sullivan the S is at 41.4%, and Sullivan the J is at 2.5%
Governor: Both JKT and Begich gain 0.3%, with Wilson at 10.0%, following by Bronson at 4th with 8.1%, Taylor 5th with 7.3%, and Bishop 6th with 7.0%. Who knows who will actually be on the general election ballot, could be someone further down.
House: Begich leads Hill 44.6% to 32.5%, with the already dropped out Schultz as 8.1%, Hafner at 3.8%, and whoever John Williams is in 5th with 2.7%.
Caveats about primary vs. general turnout apply, but a near-majority for Peltola is a very good starting place. Sullivan's showing is rather weak for an incumbent in a state that (usually) favours his party, and I don't think he can blame that entirely on name confusion.
LA-5: The Republican Party of Louisiana endorsed Misti Cordell, the chair of the state Board of Regents. Cordell is an ally of Gov. Jeff Landry. She faces state Reps. Mike Echols, Gabe Firment and Pat Moore (the only prominent Democrat as far as I know) as well as state Sen. Stewart Cathey in the November jungle primary.
First, thanks to a TDB reader for their sponsorship for me here, which both De-lurks me and helps out TDB.
Some SC poll comments...
Interesting timing on the release of the Annie Andrews poll in SC just after the R runoff. I know many Dems vote in the R primary, either because of local issues or to try to minimize the damage of getting wacko R elected. If she'd released it earlier, we would have known who would have been easier for her to beat. Though perhaps the polling showed Graham would win and be the easiest for Andrews to beat and that Dem voters in the runoff would sopport her more. But a lot of Dems I know voted for Norman because they thought he'd be easier to beat or wouldn't make it 6 years anyway. If her polling showed her doing better against Norman, then I think her release timing was a mistake. Guess we'll never know.
Friday's Allen Wilson 50--Jermaine Johnson 42 poll seems about right. To tighten the margin, Johnson would need to get on the air, but I don't think he has any $. Bashing Wilson over corruption in the AG office, especially over issues where women were cheated or killed by good old boys, would align with women who are excited about Annie Andrews and help him/both out, I think.
I live in NC, not SC, but here I don't believe that you can vote in a runoff primary unless you voted in that party's original primary. If it is the same for SC, that might have limited the number of Dems voting in the runoff.
Isn't there a referendum on repealing the RCV in Alaska in Nov? Seems like this adds fuel to the repeal argument, resulting in Alaska having a Paul LePage situation in the future. What's the point of RCV if the near-top candidates drop out?
Begich could have campaigned on Rank us Both, and while raising just enough campaign funding to get that message out. Rank me #1, rank Jonathan #2, and then don't rank. Use the system.
Yeah, if this is how the system works I’d vote to repeal ranked choice if I was an Alaska voter, this stinks and if I voted for Begich in the primary I’d be pissed.
The system clearly needs reform (like not allowing candidates who get under 5% to advance, probably restricting withdrawals), but it's still better than FPTP, especially in state legislative elections. I think you also overestimate how mad Begich voters will be, both candidates seem to get along well and neither seemed to have strong personal/parasocial followings.
It is on the November ballot but it also includes, in the words of the Board of Elections, what I would consider an awful change:
"This act would repeal campaign finance rules that were passed in 2020. It would remove the limits on donations to joint campaigns for governor and lieutenant governor. It would remove limits and disclosure rules under current law, including for digital ads, out-of-state donations, undisclosed donations and the true source of donations. It would change the meaning of a campaign expenditure and remove some fines." https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/08/28/alaska-supreme-court-affirms-states-election-ballot-measure-language-with-one-change/
I would like to see how many voters actually use ranked voting the way it was intended and actually vote for more than one candidate.
I know several activists in NYC who spent a lot of time handing out palm cards to educate voters on how RCV worked. They wanted to made sure that Cuomo didn't win.
In Oakland's 2022 race for Mayor, 83% of the votes cast were counted in the 14th and final round. Some appear to have not been counted for other reasons including marking both candidates. Still, that’s a pretty good percentage as some voters may have disliked both of the top-two. https://www.alamedacountyca.gov/rovresults/rcv/248/rcvresults.htm?race=Oakland%2F001-Mayor
By contrast, in Alaska’s November 2024 Congressional election, 16,768 first round votes were cast for a candidate not ending up in the top two. Of those, 5,084 later went to Begich, 4,010 went to Peltola and 7,674 did not go to either one. Thus, 45% were not marked for either of the top two. https://ballotpedia.org/Mary_Peltola
You're comparing the total number of non-exhausted votes in one election to the percentage of exhausted votes for eliminated candidates in another, those are fairly different things. 2024's election was also affected by the fact the two candidates besides Peltola and Begich were a 3rd party candidate and a perennial candidate, not real candidates whose supporters were political serious. In 2022, most Begich voters (just under 80%) ranked Palin or Peltola 2nd, and in the Senate race, most Chesbro voters (again, just under 80%) ranked another candidate 2nd. What's strange is that is state legislative elections, particularly in 2024, ranked choice voting usage fell of a cliff in a lot of races.
Actually, I was comparing non-exhausted votes in both races but you are right that I made a mistake. In Oakland's first round, 40,966 votes initially went to candidates who did not make the top two. When those votes were allocated through 14 rounds, the totals for the final two increased by 28,379 meaning that 69% of those who did not initially vote for the top two ranked one of them.
There are lots of reasons more people rank their choices in some races more than in others. (IIRC, in Oakland, voters were limited in how one could rank.) I was just trying to give something to Cheryl to consider since she asked.
OH-15: I'm interested in Don Leonard's campaign against Rep. Mike Carey. It's a tough district but Carey seems pretty generic and it seems like we're doing well in Ohio. Leonard's background is in urban and regional planning, and I feel like an Urban planner in Congress could be interesting.
I didn't know Dolly covered Zeppelin. But the song certainly fits in her repertoire. As a lyrics-first music listener, I admit that some if the lines I was able to lick out today for the first time and I'm older than the song. Thanks for making that the Song of the Week.
That wasn't a bad cover, but nothing will ever beat the Wilson sisters doing it at the Kennedy Center in front of Plant, Page and Jones. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cZ_EFAmj08
Plant was reportedly a big fan of Dolly's version as well. That album the song is from, Halos and Horns, is part of a three-album series of bluegrass albums she put out in the late 90s (along with an amazing live album spanning all three). This was the first time in her career she was fully liberated from record labels and was able to do whatever she wanted. With all this pent-up creative energy, she started a new record label in Asheville, NC called Sugar Hill and recorded three absolutely amazing bluegrass albums with a hugely talented set of bluegrass instrumentalists. These albums are credited with helping to fuel the bluegrass revival that began in the early 2000s. I'm a huge Dolly fan, but these are my favorite albums, and I always recommend them to people who aren't necessarily huge fans of her pop and country music, because the craftsmanship that went into these albums is something any music fan can appreciate.
Normally, I'd agree with you but AES and Nessell occupy almost entirely different political lanes so there could be more variance than normal. My guess right now is that Nessell wins by 5-7 points and the Senate race is within 1-2 points with either candidate potentially winning. Forced to place a wager on the Senate race, I'd guess AES wins by 1 due to the environment, but that's far from certain.
Noteworthy results from the Alaska state legislative primaries (apologies, this is long!):
Senate:
District C: Held by the outgoing Senate president and Republican member of the bipartisan coalition, a Republican member of the House coalition, Louise Stutes, looks likely to retain that seat for the coalition, as against two Republicans who I'd assume are more conservative, she nearly got a majority.
District S: Bryce Edgmon, an independent state representative who has caucused with both Republicans and Democrats, looks extremely likely to replace a Democrat who has caused with Republicans in the past.
House:
District 5: Stutes' seat, an independent has a 20+ point lead over a Republican, so this seat will remain in the hands of the bipartisan coalition presumably.
District 6: An independent is leading the Republican incumbent by 13.5 points, so this seat will probably be a flip for the bipartisan coalition, assuming the independent is moderate.
District 11: The Republican incumbent narrowly leads a Democrat by 2.5 points, we'll see how this goes in the general election.
District 15: A Democrat narrowly leads the Republican incumbent by 3.5 points, we'll see how this goes in the general election.
District 18: The Democrat, who previously represented this district, is leading the Republican (not the incumbent, who retired) by about a 2-1 margin, but this seat swung extremely hard to the right between the primary and general election last year, so we'll see.
District 34: An independent is leading the non-incumbent Republican (who is the wife of the outgoing state incumbent) by 6 points, and again, we'll see.
District 37: Edgmon's seat, and it's extremely unclear what the general election will look like. A Republican leads with 22.7%, followed by a Democrat with 19.6%, an independent with 17.7%, and a second Democrat with 14.4%. There were three eliminated candidates, all independents, all of whom broke 5% of the vote. I'm not even going to try to make a prediction here.
District 38: A former Democratic state representative, Conrad McCormick, who caucused with Republicans for his sole term was defeated by another Democrat, Nellie Unangiq Jimmie, in 2024, and McCormick leads Jimmie 30.9%-29.0%, followed by a Republican with 24.8% and independent with 15.3% A Democrat will hold this seat, but we'll see if it's the one who has caucused with Republicans in the past or not. Even if McCormick wins, he'd likely only caucus with Republicans if other state representatives from the Bush also did so.
Overall, the coalition in the Senate won't gain or lose seats unless some Republicans join or leave it, and the House coalition will probably expand, if the general election electorate looks anything like the primary one. Democrats and independents could easily form an outright majority.
Just took the family to see Coyote vs. ACME. You can honestly see why Warner Bros. Would want to bury the movie. It has a great message about perseverance and fighting corporate power.
Chicago mayor (2027): Another hopeful to consider joining the clown car of candidates challenging incumbent Brandon Johnson (D) is far-right provocateur Nick Fuentes, a longtime resident of Hispanic-heavy Berwyn, a suburb of the city. Fuentes has Mexican ancestry but is a white nationalist.
If he ran, Fuentes would go against Johnson as well as businessmen Joe Holberg and Willie Wilson, alderman George Cardenas, state Comptroller Susana Mendoza, Secretary of State Alexei Giannoulias, Rep. Mike Quigley and Cook County treasurer Maria Pappas. State Rep. Kam Buckner is also considering.
What's funny to me is that Giannoulias is perceived as the frontrunner of the field...over the incumbent and all of those other people, while also running for re-election as SoS and having his disastrous 2010 Senate bid hang over his career.
Well, at least there are real choices in the mayoral race even if it’s too crowded.
In the 2007 San Francisco Mayoral Race, Gavin Newsom was running for re-election and faced 10+ would-be mayoral candidates.
All of them, including video blogger Josh Wolf (the noted journalist who was jailed more than 200 days for refusing to turn over video tapes he recorded during a July 2005 demonstration in San Francisco) never had any credible resemblance of a campaign that was even taken seriously. Newsom coasted to winning re-election with 74% of the votes.
David Leslie, who came 4th in the Alaska Senate primary, does seem willing to withdraw, but won't commit to anything yet. Something that seems to be keeping Leslie from withdrawing is that if both he and the 5th place Republican, Gerald Heikes, withdraws, than Carol Hafner, a completely unserious out-of-state Democrat, would advance and unlike Leslie, she probably wouldn't care if she siphons votes. His logic is pretty clearly flawed in a few places, as there's no reason to believe Heikes is a team player, and there's nothing stopping him from waiting until the last moment to send a withdrawal notice, but hopefully he's acting in good faith and can be convinced to withdraw.
MA-6: Veterinarian Mariah Lancaster is out two days before the primary, endorsing state Rep. Tram Nguyen.
This seems to be another progressive vs. establishment battle brewing, with Nguyen endorsed by progressive groups as well as Rep. Ayanna Pressley and former Andover selectman Dan Koh being endorsed by former President Joe Biden and most of his administration. Koh also has the endorsements of former Reps. John Tierney and Mike Harrington, who represented the district.
Other candidates include crypto businessman and attorney John Beccia, former state Rep. Jamie Belsito, and Middleton master planner Beth Andres-Beck.
IMO Ayanna Pressley (also AG Andrea Campbell) endorsed Nguyen too late. Early voting had already started, and 10 days is probably not enough time for the endorsement to register.
I don't know enough about Campbell or Lori Trahan but they didn't strike me as ardent progressives on the same page as Pressley. I thought it was interesting they endorsed Nguyen. Trahan I get because she beat Koh in 2018, but still.
https://www.reddit.com/r/YAPms/comments/1w0zl3f/democrat_tom_begich_is_reportedly_planning_to/
AK-Gov: The campaign of Republican Dave Bronson said Democrat Tom Begich would drop out of the race by the August 31 deadline. Begich has not confirmed this, but it's widely known he brokered a deal with Jonathan Kriess-Tomkins to potentially do so.
It would probably be better if he stayed in with RCV, honestly.
Its probably for the best he drop out,
there is always a % of people who dont rank a second or third choice in ranked choice voting, either because they don't understand the system or simply because they dont want to
if the GOP has 3 candidates and Kriess-Tomkins is at 47 or 48% of the vote he can win through ballot exhaustion
if Kriess-Tomkins and Begich combine for that amount there will be some ballot exhaustion on their side, enough to let the GOP win
I agree consolidation makes sense as a strategy (although I don't like it), but when the two candidates are so close together and represent different parts of the party (geographically and to some extent ideologically), it's impossible to say who the "stronger" candidate is. The near-complete lack of general election scenario polling is a problem here, there's only two relevant polls: One showing Begich defeating Wilson after Bishop and Bronson votes are distributed, and one with 6 candidates, Begich, Wilson, Bishop, Bronson, Walker, and JKT, showing Begich defeating Wilson in the final round, with Bishop and Walker votes slightly more likely to preference Begich than JKT. The latter poll clearly underestimated JKT's support, so take it with a grain of salt, but the lack of direct head-to-head polling with JKT is frustrating.
News from PA-07
Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, who is on the list of seats most likely to flip in 2026, seems to have taken a page out of the Santos and Majewski playbook by lying about his previous position as a real estate salesperson.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/27/ryan-mackenzie-pennsylvania-congressman-resume
Another one bites the dust.
"Oh we've been living here in Allentown
And our congressman's a big lying clown
Vote for Bob Brooks and send him awayyy-ay-ay-ay-ay-ay-ay-ay-ay-ay-ay-ay-ay"
(Apologies to Billy Joel)
Last Alaska vote dump, results should be finalized now:
Senate: Leslie beats out Heikes by exactly 100 votes for 4th slot, both with 1.1% of the total vote. Meanwhile, Peltola is at 49.5%. Sullivan the S is at 41.4%, and Sullivan the J is at 2.5%
Governor: Both JKT and Begich gain 0.3%, with Wilson at 10.0%, following by Bronson at 4th with 8.1%, Taylor 5th with 7.3%, and Bishop 6th with 7.0%. Who knows who will actually be on the general election ballot, could be someone further down.
House: Begich leads Hill 44.6% to 32.5%, with the already dropped out Schultz as 8.1%, Hafner at 3.8%, and whoever John Williams is in 5th with 2.7%.
Caveats about primary vs. general turnout apply, but a near-majority for Peltola is a very good starting place. Sullivan's showing is rather weak for an incumbent in a state that (usually) favours his party, and I don't think he can blame that entirely on name confusion.
Hopefully John Williams is orchestrating a version of The Force Awakens so Begich (the R) gets the Hook and ends up Home Alone.
https://www.shreveporttimes.com/story/news/2026/08/28/louisiana-republican-party-makes-endorsement-in-congressional-race-to-replace-julia-letlow/91505410007
LA-5: The Republican Party of Louisiana endorsed Misti Cordell, the chair of the state Board of Regents. Cordell is an ally of Gov. Jeff Landry. She faces state Reps. Mike Echols, Gabe Firment and Pat Moore (the only prominent Democrat as far as I know) as well as state Sen. Stewart Cathey in the November jungle primary.
First, thanks to a TDB reader for their sponsorship for me here, which both De-lurks me and helps out TDB.
Some SC poll comments...
Interesting timing on the release of the Annie Andrews poll in SC just after the R runoff. I know many Dems vote in the R primary, either because of local issues or to try to minimize the damage of getting wacko R elected. If she'd released it earlier, we would have known who would have been easier for her to beat. Though perhaps the polling showed Graham would win and be the easiest for Andrews to beat and that Dem voters in the runoff would sopport her more. But a lot of Dems I know voted for Norman because they thought he'd be easier to beat or wouldn't make it 6 years anyway. If her polling showed her doing better against Norman, then I think her release timing was a mistake. Guess we'll never know.
Friday's Allen Wilson 50--Jermaine Johnson 42 poll seems about right. To tighten the margin, Johnson would need to get on the air, but I don't think he has any $. Bashing Wilson over corruption in the AG office, especially over issues where women were cheated or killed by good old boys, would align with women who are excited about Annie Andrews and help him/both out, I think.
I live in NC, not SC, but here I don't believe that you can vote in a runoff primary unless you voted in that party's original primary. If it is the same for SC, that might have limited the number of Dems voting in the runoff.
Correct, and there were probably some spots where that came into play, but statewide it was pretty clear that Andrews and Johnson were going to win.
https://www.adn.com/politics/2026/08/28/tom-begich-says-he-will-withdraw-from-alaska-governors-race/
AK-Gov: Tom Begich is out, officially.
Isn't there a referendum on repealing the RCV in Alaska in Nov? Seems like this adds fuel to the repeal argument, resulting in Alaska having a Paul LePage situation in the future. What's the point of RCV if the near-top candidates drop out?
Begich could have campaigned on Rank us Both, and while raising just enough campaign funding to get that message out. Rank me #1, rank Jonathan #2, and then don't rank. Use the system.
Yeah, if this is how the system works I’d vote to repeal ranked choice if I was an Alaska voter, this stinks and if I voted for Begich in the primary I’d be pissed.
The system clearly needs reform (like not allowing candidates who get under 5% to advance, probably restricting withdrawals), but it's still better than FPTP, especially in state legislative elections. I think you also overestimate how mad Begich voters will be, both candidates seem to get along well and neither seemed to have strong personal/parasocial followings.
It is on the November ballot but it also includes, in the words of the Board of Elections, what I would consider an awful change:
"This act would repeal campaign finance rules that were passed in 2020. It would remove the limits on donations to joint campaigns for governor and lieutenant governor. It would remove limits and disclosure rules under current law, including for digital ads, out-of-state donations, undisclosed donations and the true source of donations. It would change the meaning of a campaign expenditure and remove some fines." https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/08/28/alaska-supreme-court-affirms-states-election-ballot-measure-language-with-one-change/
Yikes
I would like to see how many voters actually use ranked voting the way it was intended and actually vote for more than one candidate.
I know several activists in NYC who spent a lot of time handing out palm cards to educate voters on how RCV worked. They wanted to made sure that Cuomo didn't win.
In Oakland's 2022 race for Mayor, 83% of the votes cast were counted in the 14th and final round. Some appear to have not been counted for other reasons including marking both candidates. Still, that’s a pretty good percentage as some voters may have disliked both of the top-two. https://www.alamedacountyca.gov/rovresults/rcv/248/rcvresults.htm?race=Oakland%2F001-Mayor
By contrast, in Alaska’s November 2024 Congressional election, 16,768 first round votes were cast for a candidate not ending up in the top two. Of those, 5,084 later went to Begich, 4,010 went to Peltola and 7,674 did not go to either one. Thus, 45% were not marked for either of the top two. https://ballotpedia.org/Mary_Peltola
You're comparing the total number of non-exhausted votes in one election to the percentage of exhausted votes for eliminated candidates in another, those are fairly different things. 2024's election was also affected by the fact the two candidates besides Peltola and Begich were a 3rd party candidate and a perennial candidate, not real candidates whose supporters were political serious. In 2022, most Begich voters (just under 80%) ranked Palin or Peltola 2nd, and in the Senate race, most Chesbro voters (again, just under 80%) ranked another candidate 2nd. What's strange is that is state legislative elections, particularly in 2024, ranked choice voting usage fell of a cliff in a lot of races.
Actually, I was comparing non-exhausted votes in both races but you are right that I made a mistake. In Oakland's first round, 40,966 votes initially went to candidates who did not make the top two. When those votes were allocated through 14 rounds, the totals for the final two increased by 28,379 meaning that 69% of those who did not initially vote for the top two ranked one of them.
There are lots of reasons more people rank their choices in some races more than in others. (IIRC, in Oakland, voters were limited in how one could rank.) I was just trying to give something to Cheryl to consider since she asked.
Apologies for misunderstanding.
OH-15: I'm interested in Don Leonard's campaign against Rep. Mike Carey. It's a tough district but Carey seems pretty generic and it seems like we're doing well in Ohio. Leonard's background is in urban and regional planning, and I feel like an Urban planner in Congress could be interesting.
https://donforohio.com/
I didn't know Dolly covered Zeppelin. But the song certainly fits in her repertoire. As a lyrics-first music listener, I admit that some if the lines I was able to lick out today for the first time and I'm older than the song. Thanks for making that the Song of the Week.
That wasn't a bad cover, but nothing will ever beat the Wilson sisters doing it at the Kennedy Center in front of Plant, Page and Jones. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cZ_EFAmj08
That was fantastic! And the band obviously loved it and were moved.
I was thinking how nicely Dolly's voice blended into the mandolin and banjo in various parts of the song.
It was nice. I unfortunately had shitty fidelity on my cellphone speaker, which is all I can use right now.
Probably not too different from the radio Dolly listened to as a kid 😁
I remember transistor radios. They were better than this. :-)
Plant was reportedly a big fan of Dolly's version as well. That album the song is from, Halos and Horns, is part of a three-album series of bluegrass albums she put out in the late 90s (along with an amazing live album spanning all three). This was the first time in her career she was fully liberated from record labels and was able to do whatever she wanted. With all this pent-up creative energy, she started a new record label in Asheville, NC called Sugar Hill and recorded three absolutely amazing bluegrass albums with a hugely talented set of bluegrass instrumentalists. These albums are credited with helping to fuel the bluegrass revival that began in the early 2000s. I'm a huge Dolly fan, but these are my favorite albums, and I always recommend them to people who aren't necessarily huge fans of her pop and country music, because the craftsmanship that went into these albums is something any music fan can appreciate.
Nancy Wilson is such an underrated guitarist
Would have liked to have heard her do Whole Lotta Love.
I always thought Dolly should have covered Seven Nation Army to match Jack White's cover of Jolene.
AES has recovered! Benson has slipped?
EPIC-MRA poll | 8/22-8/28 LV
Michigan statewide races 2026
US Senate
🟦Abdul El-Sayed 47%
🟥Mike Rogers 43%
Undecided 10%
——
Michigan Governor
🟦Jocelyn Benson 45%
🟥John James 41%
Undecided 14%
Who knows. Undecided seems too high in the Gov race.
There are fewer and fewer ticket splitters every election. I suspect that the end result will be within a percentage point or two.
Normally, I'd agree with you but AES and Nessell occupy almost entirely different political lanes so there could be more variance than normal. My guess right now is that Nessell wins by 5-7 points and the Senate race is within 1-2 points with either candidate potentially winning. Forced to place a wager on the Senate race, I'd guess AES wins by 1 due to the environment, but that's far from certain.
Noteworthy results from the Alaska state legislative primaries (apologies, this is long!):
Senate:
District C: Held by the outgoing Senate president and Republican member of the bipartisan coalition, a Republican member of the House coalition, Louise Stutes, looks likely to retain that seat for the coalition, as against two Republicans who I'd assume are more conservative, she nearly got a majority.
District S: Bryce Edgmon, an independent state representative who has caucused with both Republicans and Democrats, looks extremely likely to replace a Democrat who has caused with Republicans in the past.
House:
District 5: Stutes' seat, an independent has a 20+ point lead over a Republican, so this seat will remain in the hands of the bipartisan coalition presumably.
District 6: An independent is leading the Republican incumbent by 13.5 points, so this seat will probably be a flip for the bipartisan coalition, assuming the independent is moderate.
District 11: The Republican incumbent narrowly leads a Democrat by 2.5 points, we'll see how this goes in the general election.
District 15: A Democrat narrowly leads the Republican incumbent by 3.5 points, we'll see how this goes in the general election.
District 18: The Democrat, who previously represented this district, is leading the Republican (not the incumbent, who retired) by about a 2-1 margin, but this seat swung extremely hard to the right between the primary and general election last year, so we'll see.
District 34: An independent is leading the non-incumbent Republican (who is the wife of the outgoing state incumbent) by 6 points, and again, we'll see.
District 37: Edgmon's seat, and it's extremely unclear what the general election will look like. A Republican leads with 22.7%, followed by a Democrat with 19.6%, an independent with 17.7%, and a second Democrat with 14.4%. There were three eliminated candidates, all independents, all of whom broke 5% of the vote. I'm not even going to try to make a prediction here.
District 38: A former Democratic state representative, Conrad McCormick, who caucused with Republicans for his sole term was defeated by another Democrat, Nellie Unangiq Jimmie, in 2024, and McCormick leads Jimmie 30.9%-29.0%, followed by a Republican with 24.8% and independent with 15.3% A Democrat will hold this seat, but we'll see if it's the one who has caucused with Republicans in the past or not. Even if McCormick wins, he'd likely only caucus with Republicans if other state representatives from the Bush also did so.
Overall, the coalition in the Senate won't gain or lose seats unless some Republicans join or leave it, and the House coalition will probably expand, if the general election electorate looks anything like the primary one. Democrats and independents could easily form an outright majority.
Just took the family to see Coyote vs. ACME. You can honestly see why Warner Bros. Would want to bury the movie. It has a great message about perseverance and fighting corporate power.
FL-Sen: Democratic primary results by congressional district
*Next to the Vindman seats (not many of them)
1st (Pensacola, Emerald Coast): Nixon+19%
2nd (Tallahassee, Big Bend): Nixon +29%
3rd (Gainesville/Ocala): Nixon +18%
4th (west and north Jacksonville, Nixon's home district): Nixon +63%
5th (east and south Jacksonville): Nixon +28%
6th (outer Orlando and Jacksonville suburbs and Daytona Beach): Nixon +1%
7th (northern Orlando suburbs): Nixon +10%
8th (Space Coast and eastern Orlando suburbs): Nixon +10%
9th (southern Orlando suburbs and Lake Okeechobee): Nixon +13%
10th (Orlando area): Nixon +39%
11th (western Orlando suburbs and The Villages): Nixon +9%
12th (central Tampa): Nixon +7%
*13th (western Tampa suburbs: Vindman +<1%
14th (eastern Tampa suburbs): Nixon +12%
15th (northern Tampa suburbs): Nixon +13%
16th (St. Petersburg and Bradenton): Nixon +10%
*17th (Sarasota and Fort Myers): Vindman +19%
18th (Lakeland area): Nixon +9%
*19th (Cape Coral and Naples): Vindman +16%
20th (Black areas near Fort Lauderdale): Nixon +24%
*21st (Treasure Coast and northern Palm Beach suburbs): Vindman +5%
*22nd (Everglades, Marco Island and Miami exurbs, Vindman's home district): Vindman +3%
*23rd (Palm Beach area): Vindman +4%
24th (Black areas near Miami): Nixon +52%
*25th (coastline near Miami): Vindman +28%
26th (northwest Miami suburbs): Nixon +12%
*27th (central and south Miami): Vindman +11
28th (Everglades, Keys and Miami exurbs): Nixon +10
Interesting.
Nixon should have really ran for the 4th, it's more demographically favorable, and a stronger candidate than Holloway is needed there.
https://x.com/whitesocksclips/status/2092490448975868205
Chicago mayor (2027): Another hopeful to consider joining the clown car of candidates challenging incumbent Brandon Johnson (D) is far-right provocateur Nick Fuentes, a longtime resident of Hispanic-heavy Berwyn, a suburb of the city. Fuentes has Mexican ancestry but is a white nationalist.
If he ran, Fuentes would go against Johnson as well as businessmen Joe Holberg and Willie Wilson, alderman George Cardenas, state Comptroller Susana Mendoza, Secretary of State Alexei Giannoulias, Rep. Mike Quigley and Cook County treasurer Maria Pappas. State Rep. Kam Buckner is also considering.
Good god. And I thought the CA gubernatorial race was crazy to begin with!
What's funny to me is that Giannoulias is perceived as the frontrunner of the field...over the incumbent and all of those other people, while also running for re-election as SoS and having his disastrous 2010 Senate bid hang over his career.
Well, at least there are real choices in the mayoral race even if it’s too crowded.
In the 2007 San Francisco Mayoral Race, Gavin Newsom was running for re-election and faced 10+ would-be mayoral candidates.
All of them, including video blogger Josh Wolf (the noted journalist who was jailed more than 200 days for refusing to turn over video tapes he recorded during a July 2005 demonstration in San Francisco) never had any credible resemblance of a campaign that was even taken seriously. Newsom coasted to winning re-election with 74% of the votes.
Wouldn't normally post a twitter link but this is important-ish
https://x.com/Taniel/status/2093842971242176568
David Leslie, who came 4th in the Alaska Senate primary, does seem willing to withdraw, but won't commit to anything yet. Something that seems to be keeping Leslie from withdrawing is that if both he and the 5th place Republican, Gerald Heikes, withdraws, than Carol Hafner, a completely unserious out-of-state Democrat, would advance and unlike Leslie, she probably wouldn't care if she siphons votes. His logic is pretty clearly flawed in a few places, as there's no reason to believe Heikes is a team player, and there's nothing stopping him from waiting until the last moment to send a withdrawal notice, but hopefully he's acting in good faith and can be convinced to withdraw.
Yeah, the smart thing to do would be to wait until Monday to withdraw right before the deadline.
News from the wheat state.
https://www.kwch.com/2026/08/28/poll-shows-tight-race-kansas-governor/?fbclid=IwdGRjcAUAf51wZG9mBWZkaWQWUNdMuHA_N3DoX5T88vfdVBYbvN6LE2V4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkCjY2Mjg1NjgzNzkAAR6nQWUTr16mnQtS-YxvEktTGAF9_0lVCSH7Ng6g6NWEGmxRLhMZhm-OontAXw_aem_4d_l0USu8_OehHbTEYVSUQ
https://www.thereadingobserver.com/community-news/dr-mariah-lancaster-releases-statement-ending-candidacy-endorses-tram
MA-6: Veterinarian Mariah Lancaster is out two days before the primary, endorsing state Rep. Tram Nguyen.
This seems to be another progressive vs. establishment battle brewing, with Nguyen endorsed by progressive groups as well as Rep. Ayanna Pressley and former Andover selectman Dan Koh being endorsed by former President Joe Biden and most of his administration. Koh also has the endorsements of former Reps. John Tierney and Mike Harrington, who represented the district.
Other candidates include crypto businessman and attorney John Beccia, former state Rep. Jamie Belsito, and Middleton master planner Beth Andres-Beck.
IMO Ayanna Pressley (also AG Andrea Campbell) endorsed Nguyen too late. Early voting had already started, and 10 days is probably not enough time for the endorsement to register.
I don't know enough about Campbell or Lori Trahan but they didn't strike me as ardent progressives on the same page as Pressley. I thought it was interesting they endorsed Nguyen. Trahan I get because she beat Koh in 2018, but still.