Listen, I don't personally have an issue with discussing the forbidden topics, if that were allowed. This isn't about me. I value your contributions and don't want you to get in trouble. But it's your choice, and that's the last thing I intend to say to you about this.
Yeah, that wasn't the way to discuss it. Instead, it would have been OK to say AIPAC dropped donations to [Name A, Name B, Name C, etc.] and added that we can't discuss why here.
Just banned a user for violating I/P rules and then being a dick about it. And let me note that this was someone with a paid subscription. I've very rarely had to ban paid subscribers, but I've done it before, did it just now, and will do it again if I have to. I have zero tolerance for rule-breakers, especially when they're obnoxious about it.
I'm excited to announce that I'm going to Europe to visit my grandparents, covering England and Scotland and spending a few nights in Paris (!!), my first time in the city.
That means I'll be less active here from July 19 to August 7, meaning I'll miss most discussion on the July 28 and August 4 primaries coming up, unfortunately.
Have a wonderful time! I love Paris! Learn some French if you don't already know some. It's very important when you enter a shop to say "Bonjour, Messieurs-Dames" (Hello, Ladies and Gentlemen), unless that's changed since 2002 (which I doubt), and "Bonsoir" to the Maitre d'Hotel when you enter a restaurant and to thank people. People may choose to answer in English, but the attempt to speak French is appreciated, and Americans who think French people are rude are generally reacting to the reaction they get from French people who care greatly about etiquette and see Americans (sometimes unintentionally) flouting it - in other words, they think we are rude and react accordingly. I've had a wonderful time in Paris because I speak French and make sure to be polite.
I don't speak that much French, at least fluently, but I do know how to do things like order at a restaurant (pro tip: if you want to pay your cheque, say "L'addition, sil vous plait", or you might be waiting a long time) and know to say Bonjour or Bonsoir when entering or leaving shops. I thought it was a real achievement when I arrived there for my second or third visit and bought a bunch of Paris Metro tickets from the touchscreen without ever hitting the British flag icon which lets you do the business in English.
Generally they do at least appreciate the effort to speak some French, though when I start stumbling or clearly don't seem to understand what they're saying they helpfully switch to English. I think when they recognize an Anglophonic accent (be it American, British, or Australian) they can sense when to use English.
Good timing...looks like the weather in Paris has cooled a bit looking at the next 10 days. Loved Paris, spent 10 days there. And Michael's advice is spot on!
In what respect was Paris a let-down? Because parts of the city are gritty (the Champs-Elysee was downright rough and somewhat dangerous in 2002), because it's easy to spend a lot of money for mediocre food if you're not careful, or some other reason? It's a city with a beautiful skyline and nearly unparalleled cultural attractions.
Spent a lot of money on mediocre food like you said, and quite a few people were very openly rude to us as Americans. My wife speaks French as well and people seemed angry when she spoke to them in French at times. If I went back I’d like to go a local or a friend that lived there to show us around the best spots rather than hitting up the tourist areas
There is a very strong rejection of Americans in France (this in no way excuses the behavior towards your wife). The French behave less kindly towards American tourists than towards tourists of any other origin.
I know some people who deliberately give bad directions to American tourists looking for directions. (Which I find quite mean.)
Have things changed greatly since 2002? The last time I was in France was during the American-led aggression against Iraq. People were very angry about that, but they could hardly have been nicer to us. One morning, my father asked a shopkeeper for directions, and the shopkeeper insisted over our objections on closing his shop, leaving customers on line outside the door, to go 10 minutes out of his way to personally walk us where we were going. That just would never happen in New York.
Not my experience at all. I'd say, though, if people visiting Paris want to save money and have good food, my previous experience was that getting sandwiches at boucheries and boulangeries and tartes at boulangeries is a good idea.
In general, prices are higher in Paris than in the rest of France. But if you get away from the touristy restaurants, there are many inexpensive options (not necessarily serving French cuisine).
Sounds like a wonderful holiday, do say hello to Count Binface for me!
Not as exciting, but I'm going to visit family in the Ottawa area for a few days starting tomorrow. If I see Ambassador Pete Hoekstra out in the wild, I will do my best not to start an international incident by yelling at him to "Tariff Dees!"
Lol. I forgot he was Washington's man in Ottawa these days. I remember him as a longtime congressman from a Michigan seat with a large Dutch population (him, his predecessor Vander Jagt and successor Huizenga at least have Dutch names) ran for governor and I think he was the ambassador to The Netherlands in Trump's 1st term.
Speaking of which, I hope my trip to Paris is not as hectic as the one to Amsterdam. I got lost after leaving the Red Light district and couldn't find my way back to the Rhine river cruise for hours.
I don't know if the little Paris par Arrondissement booklets of maps are still as much a thing in Paris nowadays as they used to be (I used mine extensively in the 90s, though I believe I remember we didn't have one in 2002, and I don't remember whether we got one), but they're still very useful and can help orient you. Consider picking one up at a bookstore.
Probably just the Manchester area, which is where I have family and I'm already familiar with. But who knows - sometimes I wing it and go somewhere new.
I know, I also assume that the majority of tourists are anti-Trump. But I think that for some it's more a rejection of the USA as a whole than of Trump alone.
Same - I had given a small amount to every competitive Senate race except Maine, where I wanted Collins to lose but wasn't willing to open my wallet for our nominee. Now I'll be able to.
The Wisconsin governor race is a mess and there is a lot of blame to go around. Tony Evers for retiring without having a strong successor lined up, Josh Kaul for not running, and Sara Rodriguez for not knowing how to manage a campaign. I do hope the last minute push for David Crowley works but it never should have came to this especially when the state party has been one of the strongest & most effective up until now.
It’s not Evers’ fault that Kaul didn’t run. And it would have been hard for him to win a third term. He barely won the first two and third term race track records are not good.
It’s partially on Evers for not grooming a successor or endorsing someone earlier to force some consolidation. Maybe he just assumed Kaul would go for it and was shocked when he didn’t? It seems Evers doesn’t think much of either of the two LGs he’s had.
The thing is that I’m not sure Kaul wins again as AG if the top of the ticket is a trainwreck. Kaul has never outran Evers in his runs so he could easily lose this year and it’s why him not running for governor was so confounding.
While the state party might be effective we’re still digging ourselves out of a gigantic hole that the 2010 election put us in, in WI. The bench was absolutely decimated because of partisan gerrymandering and we’re seeing the downstream effects of it. If it comes down the to Left Wing “Radical” vs. the Right Wing Radical. I think in this environment it doesn’t matter who wins the primary. They will likely eke out a victory just due to the environment. This isn’t 2010 and the Republicans are going to be radioactive come November if the War in Iran escalates as it appears it will.
Dems stupidly didn’t put independent redistricting on the ballot in 2009 when they had a trifecta there. That probably would have allowed us to win the legislature in 2012, 2018, and 2020 under fair maps.
It also would have given us a real shot at taking out Paul Ryan in 2012.
On that note (unless I missed something), it seems like all these Supreme Court cases are mostly for naught if we still haven’t gotten new congressional maps drawn yet.
I think the expectation was focused mostly on the state legislative maps, which were gerrymandered to make it impossible for Dems to win majorities in either chamber.
I’m not going to blame Kaul. In theory we had a strong field full of a bunch of talented politicians. If he doesn’t want to be governor and we have a crowded field of high profile candidates, it’s not his responsibility to run for an office he doesn’t want in a swing state where it’s not like he’s the only candidate who could win.
Everyone here should watch Missouri for the next few weeks. The sec of state has until August 3rd to certify the gerrymandering veto referendum. We know it has enough signatures because of a sunshine request from a couple of months ago. If it’s certified, the gerrymander SHOULD be suspended until the election. However, because of that, the sec of state will probably try to not to certify the referendum by claiming the signatures are invalid or certify it but claim the gerrymander is not suspended. So there will probably be lawsuits.
I’ll probably be paying less attention to Missouri politics from now on because I’m moving to Minnesota this weekend. But there’s a ton happening in Missouri this year, so it’s worth paying attention to imo.
True although at this point, all that I care about Democrats winning more elections. The GOP can go beyond imploding at his point and it doesn’t matter to me.
My personal fantasy is for the Dems’ two big wings to become two parties, a centrist one to replace the GOP and a left one, and the GOP to disintegrate into a cloud of dust, but that will never happen so I’ll take the Dem wins.
That sounds wild but I am not sure that would come into fruition in the next decade or so.
I see the Republican Party actually becoming more moderate and Libertarian but less right wing over time. Reason for this is because of multicultural changes happening across the country. Rural parts of the U.S. will likely stay the same with no real ideological change but new economic development and new residents aren’t assured to be conservative.
The Democratic Party on the other hand could very well compete with the GOP for moderate voters. If this is the case, it’s better for the country.
Unfortunately, the most socially conservative 30-40% of the U.S will always keep the Republicans fairly conservative and politically viable in enough of the country to need to adapt and take more socially moderate positions.
Sure although the most socially conservative voters with influence tend to be in the parts of the U.S. that Democrats don't win in anyway or at least not normally. A lot of these regions are resistant to change as opposed to cities and suburbs where change is absorbed better and there's growing diversity, especially in a multicultural sense.
Also, the term "moderate" these days evolves in different definitions by anyone who uses it to define their political philosophy depending on what they believe in. Being moderate can for those who are more liberal-minded be socially liberal although not completely the case for everyone else.
Those who consider themselves moderate could very well look at crime, immigration and law enforcement from the standpoint of competency while also being socially moderate on plenty of other issues, including abortion and marijuana. The GOP capitalizes on the Democratic Party when Mayors and elected officials statewide and nationally are "weak on crime." Moderate voters don't need to be right wing in order to be hard on crime if it's something so simple as being able to shop without getting robbed.
WI-Gov: Reposting someone else's comment from today's digest: Milwaukee County executive David Crowley is in, again, and will kick off his 2nd campaign for the governorship tomorrow morning at a rally.
It’s expected Crowley is going to have Governor Evers endorsement tomorrow which is going to be very awkward for Mandela Barnes who was Evers former Lt Governor. Not often you see a Governor reject one of their Lt Governors like that, so either there’s bad blood between Evers and Barnes or there’s some oppo out there we don’t know about.
forgive my ignorance but he dropped out a few days/ weeks ago? I don't pay as much attn to gov races as I do to federal races, and I'm only half paying attn because my son lives in WI and is a huge Hong fan/ volunteer.
Hi I was hoping someone could explain this to me. There has been a lot of 2006 vs. 2018 talk and I am wondering despite seeing a lot of the Generic polls showing a D+6-10ish range, why that is not being reflected in the polling of individual races.
For example, if this is going to be a wave year why are more House races showing Dems slightly behind or virtually tied ith Republicans or within the MoE?
Just seems to me to be a huge desparity between the Generic ballot question vs. the actual race ones? Thank you for the insight. Getting 2024 flashbacks lol
Generally it's somewhere in between the two. The more optimistic data usually contracts a bit, while the more pessimistic data expands out. This usually starts in earnest in the fall, when election season starts in full.
In wave years this can be a bit confusing as the wave also tends to build over the course of the cycle, so sometimes the optimistic data ends up right and doesn't contract. But that's because of later movement towards the benefiting party.
Short answer: expect individual polls to improve a bit in ~2 months, while generic polls might get a bit worse.
Generic polls - They represent more voter sentiment towards the Democratic Party at a national level but aren't going to lend insight as to the specific races at the downballot level.
Whether you are talking about House races or even the high profile Senate races (be it AK, ME, NC, OH or TX), generic polls that have Democrats at say D+6 or D+8 are really representative of voters moving to the Democratic Party's direction.
If you want to get a better sense as to where the sentiment is going with the generic polling, Race to the White House has an excellent trend line graph to take a look at.
Individual Race Polls - These polls should really be assessed separately as House and Senate races are going to vary state by state. What you know from generic polling can be weighed towards individual races but only up to a certain extent.
In the Senate race in North Carolina, Roy Cooper has been leading in the race for months with no real movement against him. That's reflective of his stature, his candidacy and ability to fundraise. He is of course benefitting from where NC voter sentiment is towards the Democratic Party if we're taking into account generic voter sentiment.
However, by contrast in the Senate race in Texas, individual polling is different here. It's currently showing a tight race where James Talarico as of recently is tied with Ken Paxton.
Generic polling does have an impact here when it comes to voter sentiment although it's more of a complex situation with Texas as the GOP does have serious clout in the state even with diverse voter demographics (namely with the large Hispanic population in the state).
If you were to go solely by generic polling to see where the Senate race here is headed, that doesn't do enough justice as the nature of where things are right now is that either Paxton or Talarico could win.
So you have to with both generic and individual polling together if you want to really understand where things are going.
One thing I’ve noticed that *is* consistent is in polls that have tested both Trump’s approval and the generic ballot, the GOP candidate seems to be doing ~5 points better (ie if Trump is at 39, the GOP is at 44). That seems to be pretty consistent across most polls — the “I hate Trump but the Dems are still too much” vote.
Maybe I’ll do a deeper dive into that this weekend. I believe Trump was at -9 in 2018 and that was a wipeout..
My take would be most voters are not paying a whole lot of attention yet. Especially the swing/low info voters. The matchups are not even set a lot of places.
In a environment where folks are generally unhappy with the direction, they almost always break against the party in charge.
Plus, a lot of the polling is partisan. And used to drive narrative rather than take a snapshot.
Plus, look at where the poll is from. I mean, look at OH, AK, and TX, and IA. Those starts are close in Senate and for Gov (in IA & OH anyway).
Those are Trump +11-12 states. If it is close, then you are lioking at a +10 D shift,,more if the D is ahead.
Incumbents are generally gonna run well ahead of the national average. There are exceptions..Lots a folk despise the narional partyes but like THEIR rep just fine.
Joel Brennan is also pulling votes mostly from the other candidates in the establishment bloc, and Kelda Roys is pulling votes from both Hong and the establishment bloc.
Crowley probably needs at least two of Barnes, Roys, and Brennan to suspend their campaigns to have a strong chance of defeating Hong in the primary. Given that two of those three put out statements stating they intend to continue in the race, and Barnes recently landed an endorsement from one of the Green Bay-area state assembly members (Amaad Rivera-Wagner), that's probably not happening.
This feels like a very late attempt by Evers and a handful of political insiders to push a candidate back into the race because they don't consider anyone who had never suspended their campaigns to be people they'd be willing to support. The establishment would never support Hong for obvious reasons, but the power brokers chose to revive Crowley's campaign over backing Barnes, Roys, and Brennan, which I find extremely puzzling.
A new federal lawsuit settlement revealed WVU Health failed to report clinic employees stealing addictive drugs for years, including during the devastation of the opioid epidemic in West Virginia.
WVU has a near-monopoly hold on our hospitals and doctors offices. You don't have to go far to find a "WVU Medicine" insignia on a building. This branding also gives a bad rep to West Virginia University, a separate institution. Many local clinics close down and doctors are forced out of jobs. And health professionals stealing medicine is something you'd see on TV, reminiscent of Dr. Frank Langdon on The Pitt.
I know more than one nurse who lost a job over stealing opiates, this is not a just on TV or just in WV thing. The commonly cited stat is that 1 in 10 healthcare workers “divert” opiates at some point.
Recounts for these two Dem primaries have concluded. In the 30th District, machine-backed Patrick Martinez, the nephew of former Rep. Joe Crowley (who AOC famously defeated) has prevailed over Bernie-backed progressive Bangladeshi former NYPD detective Shamsul Haque.
Meanwhile in the 60th, the opposite happened — progressive nonbinary attorney David Siffert has defeated NIMBY centrist Jeannine Kiely, the chair of Manhattan Community Board 2 and one of the founders of Friends of Elizabeth Street Garden (a garden that is at the center of a nasty fight between NIMBYs and affordable housing proponents due to a proposal to build affordable housing there). Siffert will be NY’s first nonbinary state legislator.
The Tribeca Citizen article misgendered them but then confusingly proceeded to explain they're nonbinary??
"Civil rights lawyer and law professor David Siffert has won Deborah Glick’s seat in the Assembly — our district is 66 — defeating his (sic) closest opponent by just 15 votes."
It appears that Max Miller has a serious problem with women.
But it's all the more damning that Trump appeared at Miller's wedding with Emily Moreno. Way to go to make Trump proud Congressman Miller! /s
Please do not discuss Israel/Palestine, it’s a banned topic.
If you want to get in trouble, then, that's your lookout. You won't be able to say we didn't warn you.
Listen, I don't personally have an issue with discussing the forbidden topics, if that were allowed. This isn't about me. I value your contributions and don't want you to get in trouble. But it's your choice, and that's the last thing I intend to say to you about this.
It will be sustainable because the mods enforce it.
Yeah, that wasn't the way to discuss it. Instead, it would have been OK to say AIPAC dropped donations to [Name A, Name B, Name C, etc.] and added that we can't discuss why here.
Just banned a user for violating I/P rules and then being a dick about it. And let me note that this was someone with a paid subscription. I've very rarely had to ban paid subscribers, but I've done it before, did it just now, and will do it again if I have to. I have zero tolerance for rule-breakers, especially when they're obnoxious about it.
I'm excited to announce that I'm going to Europe to visit my grandparents, covering England and Scotland and spending a few nights in Paris (!!), my first time in the city.
That means I'll be less active here from July 19 to August 7, meaning I'll miss most discussion on the July 28 and August 4 primaries coming up, unfortunately.
Have a wonderful time! I love Paris! Learn some French if you don't already know some. It's very important when you enter a shop to say "Bonjour, Messieurs-Dames" (Hello, Ladies and Gentlemen), unless that's changed since 2002 (which I doubt), and "Bonsoir" to the Maitre d'Hotel when you enter a restaurant and to thank people. People may choose to answer in English, but the attempt to speak French is appreciated, and Americans who think French people are rude are generally reacting to the reaction they get from French people who care greatly about etiquette and see Americans (sometimes unintentionally) flouting it - in other words, they think we are rude and react accordingly. I've had a wonderful time in Paris because I speak French and make sure to be polite.
I don't speak that much French, at least fluently, but I do know how to do things like order at a restaurant (pro tip: if you want to pay your cheque, say "L'addition, sil vous plait", or you might be waiting a long time) and know to say Bonjour or Bonsoir when entering or leaving shops. I thought it was a real achievement when I arrived there for my second or third visit and bought a bunch of Paris Metro tickets from the touchscreen without ever hitting the British flag icon which lets you do the business in English.
Generally they do at least appreciate the effort to speak some French, though when I start stumbling or clearly don't seem to understand what they're saying they helpfully switch to English. I think when they recognize an Anglophonic accent (be it American, British, or Australian) they can sense when to use English.
You can remove "Monsieurs-Dames" if you wish. It is used less and less in France. But I agree with everything else.
Good timing...looks like the weather in Paris has cooled a bit looking at the next 10 days. Loved Paris, spent 10 days there. And Michael's advice is spot on!
Paris is a blast. One of the few places that in fact exceeds the hype
Interesting, my wife and I found Paris to be a bit of a let down. Still fun, but probably the worst part of our European trip
Not an uncommon reaction incidentally, the term “Paris Effect” exists for a reason
In what respect was Paris a let-down? Because parts of the city are gritty (the Champs-Elysee was downright rough and somewhat dangerous in 2002), because it's easy to spend a lot of money for mediocre food if you're not careful, or some other reason? It's a city with a beautiful skyline and nearly unparalleled cultural attractions.
Spent a lot of money on mediocre food like you said, and quite a few people were very openly rude to us as Americans. My wife speaks French as well and people seemed angry when she spoke to them in French at times. If I went back I’d like to go a local or a friend that lived there to show us around the best spots rather than hitting up the tourist areas
I'm very surprised they were mad at your wife for speaking French.
There is a very strong rejection of Americans in France (this in no way excuses the behavior towards your wife). The French behave less kindly towards American tourists than towards tourists of any other origin.
I know some people who deliberately give bad directions to American tourists looking for directions. (Which I find quite mean.)
Have things changed greatly since 2002? The last time I was in France was during the American-led aggression against Iraq. People were very angry about that, but they could hardly have been nicer to us. One morning, my father asked a shopkeeper for directions, and the shopkeeper insisted over our objections on closing his shop, leaving customers on line outside the door, to go 10 minutes out of his way to personally walk us where we were going. That just would never happen in New York.
The food in Paris definitely is pretty hit or miss - the brasseries and bistros all serve the same four things
Not my experience at all. I'd say, though, if people visiting Paris want to save money and have good food, my previous experience was that getting sandwiches at boucheries and boulangeries and tartes at boulangeries is a good idea.
In general, prices are higher in Paris than in the rest of France. But if you get away from the touristy restaurants, there are many inexpensive options (not necessarily serving French cuisine).
Definitely noticed that in Reims - which other than the champagne houses was not expensive at all, and a quite lovely city
I went to Paris a long time ago (I was 13) and I remember liking it.
Then again, I’m a city lover in general — I remember being told when I went to Greece that Athens was not worth it and I ended up loving Athens.
Hmm i've heard the opposite.
Sounds like a wonderful holiday, do say hello to Count Binface for me!
Not as exciting, but I'm going to visit family in the Ottawa area for a few days starting tomorrow. If I see Ambassador Pete Hoekstra out in the wild, I will do my best not to start an international incident by yelling at him to "Tariff Dees!"
Lol. I forgot he was Washington's man in Ottawa these days. I remember him as a longtime congressman from a Michigan seat with a large Dutch population (him, his predecessor Vander Jagt and successor Huizenga at least have Dutch names) ran for governor and I think he was the ambassador to The Netherlands in Trump's 1st term.
Speaking of which, I hope my trip to Paris is not as hectic as the one to Amsterdam. I got lost after leaving the Red Light district and couldn't find my way back to the Rhine river cruise for hours.
hehehehe, lost or "lost"?
I've been both lost and "lost" there.
I don't know if the little Paris par Arrondissement booklets of maps are still as much a thing in Paris nowadays as they used to be (I used mine extensively in the 90s, though I believe I remember we didn't have one in 2002, and I don't remember whether we got one), but they're still very useful and can help orient you. Consider picking one up at a bookstore.
Ottawa is beautiful! Everyone in North America should visit at least once, if they can.
Where in England are you going? As an American who lives in the North of England, I could potentially offer advice.
Probably just the Manchester area, which is where I have family and I'm already familiar with. But who knows - sometimes I wing it and go somewhere new.
That's not my experience at all.
I know, I also assume that the majority of tourists are anti-Trump. But I think that for some it's more a rejection of the USA as a whole than of Trump alone.
We have four *interesting* weeks coming up.
1. I am excited for the Maine reset next weekend. Hoping for Jackson. I plan to donate as soon as we have a nominee.
2. I don’t care who wins in Michigan much anymore with McMorrow out. It seems like Maasdam might be boxing out Brink in MI-07.
3. Wisconsin is of course creating a lot of heartburn.
4. Alaska’s jungle primary should be a good test run for our chances in both the gubernatorial and Senate races.
Same - I had given a small amount to every competitive Senate race except Maine, where I wanted Collins to lose but wasn't willing to open my wallet for our nominee. Now I'll be able to.
I believe if you donate through ActBlue you could get a refund from Platner.
I didn't donate to him - I was trying to say I donated to every other competitive Senate race, but not to Platner.
The Wisconsin governor race is a mess and there is a lot of blame to go around. Tony Evers for retiring without having a strong successor lined up, Josh Kaul for not running, and Sara Rodriguez for not knowing how to manage a campaign. I do hope the last minute push for David Crowley works but it never should have came to this especially when the state party has been one of the strongest & most effective up until now.
It’s annoying because we could see this train wreck slowly approaching from months out and no one gave a shit. It’s like Maine in that regard.
Is there a new poll or something?
Gonna be blunt and say Hong too for gunning for a seat she clearly was too risky for. And Crowley for dropping out so soon.
It’s not Evers’ fault that Kaul didn’t run. And it would have been hard for him to win a third term. He barely won the first two and third term race track records are not good.
It’s partially on Evers for not grooming a successor or endorsing someone earlier to force some consolidation. Maybe he just assumed Kaul would go for it and was shocked when he didn’t? It seems Evers doesn’t think much of either of the two LGs he’s had.
I'd rather Kaul go against RoJo all things considered. We really need that seat if we're ever going to have a senate majority again.
The thing is that I’m not sure Kaul wins again as AG if the top of the ticket is a trainwreck. Kaul has never outran Evers in his runs so he could easily lose this year and it’s why him not running for governor was so confounding.
Evers is strong and it'd take a weak candidate to lose this year. Kaul will run ahead of someone like Hong.
That's a good point.
He had two tough races, one against an incumbent and another in a GOP year. Other than age, I think Evers cruises this year pretty easily.
While the state party might be effective we’re still digging ourselves out of a gigantic hole that the 2010 election put us in, in WI. The bench was absolutely decimated because of partisan gerrymandering and we’re seeing the downstream effects of it. If it comes down the to Left Wing “Radical” vs. the Right Wing Radical. I think in this environment it doesn’t matter who wins the primary. They will likely eke out a victory just due to the environment. This isn’t 2010 and the Republicans are going to be radioactive come November if the War in Iran escalates as it appears it will.
Wish Wisconsin had another 2006/2008 honestly
Dems stupidly didn’t put independent redistricting on the ballot in 2009 when they had a trifecta there. That probably would have allowed us to win the legislature in 2012, 2018, and 2020 under fair maps.
It also would have given us a real shot at taking out Paul Ryan in 2012.
Paul Ryan losing his House seat while being Mitt Romney’s running mate would have been glorious to see.
Stupidity? Seems more like hindsight is 20/20. I don't remember anyone pushing for independent redistricting in 2009.
On that note (unless I missed something), it seems like all these Supreme Court cases are mostly for naught if we still haven’t gotten new congressional maps drawn yet.
It’s hard to argue that the congressional map is a gerrymander. It was far easier to argue it for the state legislative maps.
Dem judges aren’t hacks like most Republican ones are.
Whether or not that’s the case it’s what many were expecting would happen..
I think the expectation was focused mostly on the state legislative maps, which were gerrymandered to make it impossible for Dems to win majorities in either chamber.
There’s a great book called “The Fall of Wisconsin” that goes into detail about everything that happened post 2010.
I’m not going to blame Kaul. In theory we had a strong field full of a bunch of talented politicians. If he doesn’t want to be governor and we have a crowded field of high profile candidates, it’s not his responsibility to run for an office he doesn’t want in a swing state where it’s not like he’s the only candidate who could win.
Everyone here should watch Missouri for the next few weeks. The sec of state has until August 3rd to certify the gerrymandering veto referendum. We know it has enough signatures because of a sunshine request from a couple of months ago. If it’s certified, the gerrymander SHOULD be suspended until the election. However, because of that, the sec of state will probably try to not to certify the referendum by claiming the signatures are invalid or certify it but claim the gerrymander is not suspended. So there will probably be lawsuits.
I’ll probably be paying less attention to Missouri politics from now on because I’m moving to Minnesota this weekend. But there’s a ton happening in Missouri this year, so it’s worth paying attention to imo.
Missouri courts are politically compromised.
enjoy the upgrade! good luck with the move
Mike Lindell, Trump’s pick for governor, isn’t registered to vote in Minnesota — StarTribune
LOL
Please GOP, please nominate Mike Lindell for Governor. Help Democrats win more elections in MN!
I think Lindell will easily win his primary, as the GOP is no longer a political party, but rather a large religious cult centered around Trump.
True although at this point, all that I care about Democrats winning more elections. The GOP can go beyond imploding at his point and it doesn’t matter to me.
Amen to that.
My personal fantasy is for the Dems’ two big wings to become two parties, a centrist one to replace the GOP and a left one, and the GOP to disintegrate into a cloud of dust, but that will never happen so I’ll take the Dem wins.
That sounds wild but I am not sure that would come into fruition in the next decade or so.
I see the Republican Party actually becoming more moderate and Libertarian but less right wing over time. Reason for this is because of multicultural changes happening across the country. Rural parts of the U.S. will likely stay the same with no real ideological change but new economic development and new residents aren’t assured to be conservative.
The Democratic Party on the other hand could very well compete with the GOP for moderate voters. If this is the case, it’s better for the country.
Unfortunately, the most socially conservative 30-40% of the U.S will always keep the Republicans fairly conservative and politically viable in enough of the country to need to adapt and take more socially moderate positions.
I am well aware of the unfeasibility of my fantasy. That is why it is a fantasy, because it will never happen.
Sure although the most socially conservative voters with influence tend to be in the parts of the U.S. that Democrats don't win in anyway or at least not normally. A lot of these regions are resistant to change as opposed to cities and suburbs where change is absorbed better and there's growing diversity, especially in a multicultural sense.
Also, the term "moderate" these days evolves in different definitions by anyone who uses it to define their political philosophy depending on what they believe in. Being moderate can for those who are more liberal-minded be socially liberal although not completely the case for everyone else.
Those who consider themselves moderate could very well look at crime, immigration and law enforcement from the standpoint of competency while also being socially moderate on plenty of other issues, including abortion and marijuana. The GOP capitalizes on the Democratic Party when Mayors and elected officials statewide and nationally are "weak on crime." Moderate voters don't need to be right wing in order to be hard on crime if it's something so simple as being able to shop without getting robbed.
I saw my first Josh Elliot sign today.
https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/trump-darline-graham-endorsement-senate-run/article_fc4c69c1-a31c-4603-b7c3-c22cc007db6e.html
SC-Sen: Trump endorses incumbent Darline Graham.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/south-carolina-2026-poll-no-clear-leader-to-replace-late-sen-graham-on-ballot/
Here's an Emerson poll. There's no clear frontrunner, but Trump's endorsement will likely sway things.
https://www.crowleyforwi.com/
WI-Gov: Reposting someone else's comment from today's digest: Milwaukee County executive David Crowley is in, again, and will kick off his 2nd campaign for the governorship tomorrow morning at a rally.
It’s a mess.
It’s expected Crowley is going to have Governor Evers endorsement tomorrow which is going to be very awkward for Mandela Barnes who was Evers former Lt Governor. Not often you see a Governor reject one of their Lt Governors like that, so either there’s bad blood between Evers and Barnes or there’s some oppo out there we don’t know about.
Probably the latter. Take it with a grain of salt, but apparently Barnes has a history of sexual harassment.
forgive my ignorance but he dropped out a few days/ weeks ago? I don't pay as much attn to gov races as I do to federal races, and I'm only half paying attn because my son lives in WI and is a huge Hong fan/ volunteer.
He did but now he's back in because Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez dropped.
Hi I was hoping someone could explain this to me. There has been a lot of 2006 vs. 2018 talk and I am wondering despite seeing a lot of the Generic polls showing a D+6-10ish range, why that is not being reflected in the polling of individual races.
For example, if this is going to be a wave year why are more House races showing Dems slightly behind or virtually tied ith Republicans or within the MoE?
Just seems to me to be a huge desparity between the Generic ballot question vs. the actual race ones? Thank you for the insight. Getting 2024 flashbacks lol
Voters hate the Democratic Party, but they hate the Republican Party more.
Right so my question boils down to do we believe the individusl race polls or the Generic more?
Generally it's somewhere in between the two. The more optimistic data usually contracts a bit, while the more pessimistic data expands out. This usually starts in earnest in the fall, when election season starts in full.
In wave years this can be a bit confusing as the wave also tends to build over the course of the cycle, so sometimes the optimistic data ends up right and doesn't contract. But that's because of later movement towards the benefiting party.
Short answer: expect individual polls to improve a bit in ~2 months, while generic polls might get a bit worse.
Both but you have to assess them differently:
Generic polls - They represent more voter sentiment towards the Democratic Party at a national level but aren't going to lend insight as to the specific races at the downballot level.
Whether you are talking about House races or even the high profile Senate races (be it AK, ME, NC, OH or TX), generic polls that have Democrats at say D+6 or D+8 are really representative of voters moving to the Democratic Party's direction.
If you want to get a better sense as to where the sentiment is going with the generic polling, Race to the White House has an excellent trend line graph to take a look at.
Individual Race Polls - These polls should really be assessed separately as House and Senate races are going to vary state by state. What you know from generic polling can be weighed towards individual races but only up to a certain extent.
In the Senate race in North Carolina, Roy Cooper has been leading in the race for months with no real movement against him. That's reflective of his stature, his candidacy and ability to fundraise. He is of course benefitting from where NC voter sentiment is towards the Democratic Party if we're taking into account generic voter sentiment.
However, by contrast in the Senate race in Texas, individual polling is different here. It's currently showing a tight race where James Talarico as of recently is tied with Ken Paxton.
Generic polling does have an impact here when it comes to voter sentiment although it's more of a complex situation with Texas as the GOP does have serious clout in the state even with diverse voter demographics (namely with the large Hispanic population in the state).
If you were to go solely by generic polling to see where the Senate race here is headed, that doesn't do enough justice as the nature of where things are right now is that either Paxton or Talarico could win.
So you have to with both generic and individual polling together if you want to really understand where things are going.
https://www.racetothewh.com/polls/genericballot
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/30/texas-senate-poll-talarico-paxton-00981524
One thing I’ve noticed that *is* consistent is in polls that have tested both Trump’s approval and the generic ballot, the GOP candidate seems to be doing ~5 points better (ie if Trump is at 39, the GOP is at 44). That seems to be pretty consistent across most polls — the “I hate Trump but the Dems are still too much” vote.
Maybe I’ll do a deeper dive into that this weekend. I believe Trump was at -9 in 2018 and that was a wipeout..
He’s def not at -9 now
It's hard for pollsters to get exact data nowadays. They haven't been great for several years.
My take would be most voters are not paying a whole lot of attention yet. Especially the swing/low info voters. The matchups are not even set a lot of places.
In a environment where folks are generally unhappy with the direction, they almost always break against the party in charge.
Plus, a lot of the polling is partisan. And used to drive narrative rather than take a snapshot.
Plus, look at where the poll is from. I mean, look at OH, AK, and TX, and IA. Those starts are close in Senate and for Gov (in IA & OH anyway).
Those are Trump +11-12 states. If it is close, then you are lioking at a +10 D shift,,more if the D is ahead.
Incumbents are generally gonna run well ahead of the national average. There are exceptions..Lots a folk despise the narional partyes but like THEIR rep just fine.
Doesn't Crowley getting in just help Hong win the nomination? LOL there's just no right answers up there.
I think that’s more likely than not. Unless Barnes ends up dropping out.
Joel Brennan is also pulling votes mostly from the other candidates in the establishment bloc, and Kelda Roys is pulling votes from both Hong and the establishment bloc.
Crowley probably needs at least two of Barnes, Roys, and Brennan to suspend their campaigns to have a strong chance of defeating Hong in the primary. Given that two of those three put out statements stating they intend to continue in the race, and Barnes recently landed an endorsement from one of the Green Bay-area state assembly members (Amaad Rivera-Wagner), that's probably not happening.
Brennan's brother is a rich exec and is supposedly about to donate a huge sum to him. This is going to be a wild couple of weeks.
I’m thinking there must something up their sleeves if they’re willing to resurrect a dead campaign over getting behind Barnes.
This feels like a very late attempt by Evers and a handful of political insiders to push a candidate back into the race because they don't consider anyone who had never suspended their campaigns to be people they'd be willing to support. The establishment would never support Hong for obvious reasons, but the power brokers chose to revive Crowley's campaign over backing Barnes, Roys, and Brennan, which I find extremely puzzling.
The oppo research has to be brutal, and maybe they're more skittish than usual given Platners' recent implosion.
Appears we have another D candidate dropping out to promote an Independent. AK-AL Schultz out Bill Hill in https://x.com/shanegoldmacher/status/2078304568635523129?s=61&t=5copDbz1aPl7ASsRCUclLg
MI-Gov: Mike Cox has dropped out and endorsed John James (who Trump also endorsed).
https://www.mlive.com/politics/2026/07/mike-cox-drops-out-of-michigan-governors-race-after-trump-endorsement.html
https://www.wvgazettemail.com/news/legal_affairs/wvu-health-failed-to-address-painkiller-thefts-for-years-as-opioids-devastated-wv/article_80d4da76-3c48-48bf-9fd9-aed7df75342c.html
A new federal lawsuit settlement revealed WVU Health failed to report clinic employees stealing addictive drugs for years, including during the devastation of the opioid epidemic in West Virginia.
WVU has a near-monopoly hold on our hospitals and doctors offices. You don't have to go far to find a "WVU Medicine" insignia on a building. This branding also gives a bad rep to West Virginia University, a separate institution. Many local clinics close down and doctors are forced out of jobs. And health professionals stealing medicine is something you'd see on TV, reminiscent of Dr. Frank Langdon on The Pitt.
I know more than one nurse who lost a job over stealing opiates, this is not a just on TV or just in WV thing. The commonly cited stat is that 1 in 10 healthcare workers “divert” opiates at some point.
Wow, 1 in 10?!!!
NY-AD-30, NY-AD-66:
https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2026/07/siffert-martinez-win-tight-assembly-races-after-recounts/414787/
Recounts for these two Dem primaries have concluded. In the 30th District, machine-backed Patrick Martinez, the nephew of former Rep. Joe Crowley (who AOC famously defeated) has prevailed over Bernie-backed progressive Bangladeshi former NYPD detective Shamsul Haque.
Meanwhile in the 60th, the opposite happened — progressive nonbinary attorney David Siffert has defeated NIMBY centrist Jeannine Kiely, the chair of Manhattan Community Board 2 and one of the founders of Friends of Elizabeth Street Garden (a garden that is at the center of a nasty fight between NIMBYs and affordable housing proponents due to a proposal to build affordable housing there). Siffert will be NY’s first nonbinary state legislator.
https://tribecacitizen.com/2026/07/16/david-siffert-has-won-the-democratic-primary-race-for-assembly-district-66/
The Tribeca Citizen article misgendered them but then confusingly proceeded to explain they're nonbinary??
"Civil rights lawyer and law professor David Siffert has won Deborah Glick’s seat in the Assembly — our district is 66 — defeating his (sic) closest opponent by just 15 votes."