I mean like, why can’t he switch? He’s not polling well for Gov last I checked, and Bellows is also running as a progressive, so at this point why not?
also my relatives in maine say he's really focused on the odious ballot initiatives the gop is pushing this november in maine, really positioning himself as leader against banning absentee voting when other gov candidates aren't doing/spending to protect mainers right to the franchise
I remember ten years ago there was an insurgent candidate who said crazy stuff every day who nobody thought could win either a primary or a general. And today he’s president.
And Trump underperformed the fundamentals pretty significantly in all his runs. Not sure that’s an example we should be looking to when facing an entrenched incumbent. What is your point?
Based on polling, sure. Based on fundamentals, not even close.
Haley or most other establishment conservatives might have won an Obama 2008 sized victory in 2024, compared to the single point margin we lost by in reality.
A deeply unpopular incumbent widely blamed, fairly or not, for economic inflation, who had to drop out in the middle of the summer, and was given no credit for his successes in arresting that inflation along with handling the worst pandemic in a century (almost exactly a century)? By summer of last year Biden's approval was in the 30s. It only started to recover at all once he dropped out. And "recover" is doing heavy lifting in that sentence: it was still in the low 40s after.
We'd have been utterly wiped out against most opponents. It was only against Trump that we had any chance.
I agree; Dems are going to have to tone down the reactive outrage meter to any comments online that could be construed as offensive, because that's literally 90% of the population.
I'm not sure there is a tremendous amount of outrage, just an understanding that he successfully said a bunch of crap that will piss off both voters we need to convert in the red areas and left leaning votes that we need to turn out hard in the blue areas. 10,000 general election adds about the communist who thinks rural voters are idiots and rape victims are to blame will be just great.
I'm sorry, I think that's a totally disingenuous argument. We're all disappointed that this happened, but let's not pretend that the things he *publicly posted* are things that the majority of people have said. If a Republican did something similar, we'd be pulling our hair out calling them a monster. The problem with a double standard isn't that Dems are held to a high standard, it's that Republicans aren't. It's rare for this to happen to us, so it's not like we won't have any candidates if we hold ourselves to basic standards of decency. To say otherwise is frankly an insult to the vast majority of Democrats who've never said/posted anything similar. Should we be more accepting of foibles in our candidates and not demand they be perfect? Definitely. There are lots of people we should give second chances to and be a stronger party because of it. This is on another level, though.
Republicans will run ad after ad blasting this out to the general public if he becomes the nominee and it will lose us the election. Even if people here are willing to forgive him, the voters we need won't. I don't think we should disqualify all unconventional candidates, but this is a step too far. Mills may not be exciting, but she's not a shill like some of the other "safe" choices foisted on us by the DSCC. She's definitely not so odious that it's worth shooting ourselves in the foot just to spite the powers that be. I'm disappointed, too, as I originally supported Platner over Mills, but this is a dealbreaker that we shouldn't overlook.
I'm on vacation so I'm not reading all that but I will say that while the comments are despicable, the apology he issued was refreshingly sincere and genuine and people are overreacting.
Yes. But you have to admit the situation in New York City is entirely different, with this city being much more Democratic than Maine and there being no incumbent who's won again and again. I could be wrong in being concerned that a candidate who made the idiotic statements Platner made will lose, but if Collins wins, the Democrats have no chance to flip the Senate next year.
“The political director for Graham Platner’s U.S. Senate campaign resigned Friday after Platner’s past online posts featuring numerous controversial remarks resurfaced this week,” the Bangor Daily News reports.
Primaries. Dem, GOP, left, center, right, swing seat, any. 2026 is becoming the year of the primary, and I’m very curious to see where this goes.
Question for posters here - any primaries you’ve been watching? Anyone you’d like to see primaried for whatever reason? By who? Anyone you don’t want primaried? Any primaries you’ve heard about locally in your area?
I'd like to see Brad Sherman primaried by someone who isn't a Crypto Bro.
I've been following IL09 too because while I'm not sure about Kat Abughazaleh's chances I am interested to see how her new brand of politics works out in the long run.
I really like Mai Vang, who's challenging Doris Matsui in Ca-7. Both bc Vang is running on a more progressive platform and she's like 40 years younger.
Ofc I'm also interested in any primary Justice Democrats is wading into, since it seems like they're taking a different approach and backing just a few candidates who have a background in elected office.
I also think Joyce Beatty, Rob Menendez, and Hakeem Jeffires need challengers asap.
Partially because of age and health- she missed a narrow vote on funding for PBS & NPR while undergoing surgery. She's also just mediocre at best, or actively bad like when she voted yes on a resolution praising ICE this year.
Plus I like Morgan Harper, who performed alright in her 2020 challenge given the primary was completely upended in its final weeks bc of Covid. She expressed interest in challenging Beatty again in 2024, but never went through w it. This cycle definitely has a more favorable environment for Harper if she goes for a rematch.
Currently I'm interested in the primaries that point towards the future of our party. I cannot bring myself to care that much about republican primaries: while the distinctions between them can be real, at the end of the day they all vote in lockstep when it matters.
MN-Sen and MI-Sen stand out to me. Pretty standard battle lines there.
I'm also curious about IL-09. I really didn't expect to like her campaign at all but I've been impressed by Abughazaleh. I doubt she'll win but I'm deeply curious how well she does and what, if anything, we can gleam from her different approach to campaigning. Biss looks like the most likely winner there and I'd probably be happiest with him winning. So this is a primary I'm curious about more for pure curiosity than for wanting someone in particular to win or to lose.
Too early for anything to interesting to happen yet, but I'll be watching the primary to succeed Moulton. Hopefully we don't get a 2020 MA-04 repeat, where a single moderate wins with a tiny plurality while the progressives split the vote. I suppose I'm also interested in MA-Sen too, but I'm more excited to see Moulton lose than I am to see Markey win in his 80s.
TX-Sen is another interesting one. Talarico is someone that I think has a better chance of reaching the voters we need in Texas, and him being a christian on the left is a distinctly different profile than what we see in politics today. It would be interesting to see him in a high profile office for that alone.
Scott Weiner, CA senator, is expected to announce next week that he's running for Pelosi's seat. Pelosi has said she won't announce her intentions until after the prop 50 election. He has previously deferred to Pelosi, so he's either gotten advanced notice of her decision, or he senses a different environment that favors youth.
Scott Weiner is not a fit for the House. Plenty of San Franciscans are not happy with him, especially with his antics towards the recall of Supervisor Joel Engardio and being a square.
If I was living in SF, I would not vote for him. David Chiu, Mark Leno and others for sure.
Hell, CA State Controller Malia Cohen could be persuaded to run for the House. She used to be a Supervisor in SF and is black Jewish, a unique mix for a politician in the city.
I never seriously thought Dem voters were ever going to choose an insurgent over a Governor in a high-stakes Senate primary, even though Mills does have liabilities. But even I’m surprised at how fast Platner imploded. If this is Mills’ work and opposition research, I must confess they couldn’t have executed it any better than they did after her campaign launch.
Mills or her allies makes by far the most sense as the source of the info. Woods, I assume, doesn't have the resources to do that level of oppo research on a primary opponent. Collins would be strongly incentivized to sit on it until the general election. I don't recall CNN having any history of independently doing this kind of research into primary candidate flaws. Mills has the reason and the means.
I was genuinely surprised she decided to run, because it doesn't seem like she wants to. I'm 99% certain the Platner stuff was shown to her before she announced and it proved to her she'd be the strongest candidate. Although I was initially upset at the DSCC intervening here, they've been vindicated for now. They still need to butt out of MI-Sen, though.
With Trump aggressively pushing NC, IN, & KS to redraw I would like to see some movement on redraws in Illinois and Maryland. The filing deadline in Illinois is next month (they can push it back) but the reluctance from some members is frustrating. With the looming VRA decision and more states trying to rig the next election some pols need to take one for the team.
Lastly, Table 2 presents the overall campaign finance data for candidates in each party. It shows just how much of a financial edge the GOP has overall — roughly two-to-one in cash-on-hand. Despite fairly strong fundraising from Democratic candidates, the Republicans have still outraised them.
In a sign of how badly the professional election forecasters can misread an election, this quote is hilarious in hindsight and proof that these orgs don’t always know what’s going to happen:
Based on what we know about the race, it’s probably relatively close, and we continue to see Northam as a modest but hardly overwhelming favorite. But the margin will matter for these down-ticket races. A Northam win by two points or so might mean only two-to-four seats for Democrats, whereas a Northam win by five points could mean more GOP-held seats fall to the Democrats. On the other hand, a nail-biter or Gillespie win could trim the Democratic gains even further.
Northman won by 9 points and Democrats actually flipped 15 seats in that election for anyone curious.
I don’t always by default read much into fundraising initially as it doesn’t always translate into election wins.
However, given this election season has shown Democrats on the move in picking up multiple seats nationwide in various races, that along with these fundraising numbers suggests there is potential for the party to win more in states like VA.
Wait, aren't comments like this explicitly not allowed? Like, doomsaying stuff?
Also I'm pretty sure the VRA doesn't affect Senate races.
Furthermore, we don't actually know how SCOTUS will react. Someone a few days ago here noted that the justices may not actually gut Section 2 in full -- just make it harder to use.
1. SCOTUS probably won’t rule until June, way too late for any effects to happen until 2028.
2. GOP may not max out with redraws. Objections from some R congresspeople in those states or gov/state leg. pushback is possible, like we are seeing with non-VRA redraws.
3. By 2028, Democrats may have retaliated with their own redraws.
4. Section 2 obviously has no effect on statewide elections or presidential results.
And as I said, we don’t actually know how SCOTUS will rule. Last I heard there was some skepticism to Louisiana’s argument in addition to VRA skepticism. It’s too soon to declare it all dead I think.
Chris Geidner at Law Dork (good follow on BlueSky btw) thinks it will be a narrow ruling. He’s pretty good at gauging oral arguments and results (good track record on Dobbs and other big cases). He’s also a sharp critic of the shadow docket and its greatly expanded use on the Roberts Court.
Number 3 is what I’m most frustrated by. They have not. States with commissions or who are otherwise stuck with maps in 2026 (WA, NY, NJ, CO, tbd VA) need to be making moves NOW to get shit in place for 2028. I see no indication that Governors/state parties in those states or the DNC is pushing them on this. The VRA will be gutted and everyone is gonna go “whoops, well what can else do now?”
Dems historically have had a habit of not preparing for the likelihood of something very bad happening (like 2010) and then when it happens they are just dumbfounded even though many others were shouting from the rooftops about it for a year leading up to it. I mean seriously, who are these so called “campaign operatives” that often seem to have no common sense that the party has been paying?
Was there any point in elections before the Voting Rights Act? How were the members of Congress who enacted that act elected? There's your answer. Don't give up so easily!
Our federal elections weren’t nearly as polarized then. Bad comparison
I will also add that Dems controlled the House for 40 years (!) consecutively in that era. So we may be on the precipice of a similar era of GOP dominance. I hope not.
The 60s were also a time when a whole bunch of people were lynched and otherwise assassinated. It's the last decade that was more violent in politics than this one. Yet the popular will produced results.
I think we’re agreeing? I was pointing out that, in an era before the Voting Rights Act, Dems could win House and Senate seats all across rural America that they would have no chance in now. And eradicating the VRA will make it that much worse.
No-one on this site is going to argue that it's good to weaken, let alone overturn the Voting Rights Act! It's infuriating to have to refight all the civil rights and women's rights battles of the 60s and 70s! But if it was possible to win them once (or in some cases, twice), it's possible to win them again.
Where did I ever say "we're all doomed"? I'll wait.
I merely pointed out that the SCOTUS is poised to put House control out of Democratic reach for a generation or more, on top of said party's major disadvantage in winning Senate (small conservative states disproportionately represented) and executive control (Electoral College).
And, oh yeah, the judiciary is gone for God-knows-how-long too.
Even if Dems do retaliate we're looking at a 5 point gap. The House will be out of reach in everything except for a wave year, we only would've won the House in 2006 and 2018 in the last 25 years.
Being pessimistic is OK. I have my worries and fears about the future, and present, of our political system. It doesn't help to give in to despondency though, nor to spread it to others. This country, and many other countries, have survived worse. And, bluntly, the #1 thing wanted by the malignant actors corrupting our systems to their benefit is for us to see it as pointless and give up.
Keep trying, hold onto hope, look for the way forward, until the very, very end.
Hey Brad. I get it. But look at the response yesterday in the streets. When we take things back, we'll have the chance to rebuild what has been damaged. Some of which needed a major rehaul anyway. Pete Buttigieg had good commentary on that.
So chin up my friend. Take a media break if you need to, like Techno did. Find some place with nature to recharge It's a dumpster fire now, but we'll prevail. Hugs to you.
Comments on his page show that Platner is getting pretty receptive response from his apology, especially with his experience coming from serving in combat in Afghanistan. Comments are particularly emphasizing him not coming across as a narcissist or gaslighting anything. He's talking about coping with PTSD and depression at the time his controversial comments were made.
Remains to be seen how this plays out in the primary race.
There are some comments that are not as sympathetic, especially with the sexual assault rhetoric.
That said, Platner's going to have to deal with this and be probed again both at the debate stage and through the media if he wants to genuinely run for the Senate.
As of Thursday night, about 1.8 million ballots have been cast in California's prop 50 measure. 9% of eligible Democratic, 9% of Republican, and 6% of independent. These are similar numbers to the Newsom recall election.
Ahnold may think he's got the power in fighting against Prop 50.
However, since he last left office back in 2010 after Jerry Brown won the gubernatorial election, CA has changed significantly to the degree where Democrats have more power than they used to. If the 2021 recall election wasn't enough, Prop 50 may be more proof.
He was so embarrassing on Maher last night defending the dumb commission. “We need to take the power away from the left and right and give it back to the people!” Like, what the hell does that even mean
Yeah, we're at the point now of republicans' anti-democratic actions that I do not think independent commissions are inherently durable enough.
A mandate could revive representation that isn't tied to districts. Functionally similar to at-large seats but tie them explicitly to allowing each state to achieve a proportional result for representation.
Proportional representation didn't work well in Israel. Germany has a mixture of proportional and constituency representation. But I think that fighting for something other than districts is not likely to bear fruit, as we'd have to have a majority of the House voting their districts out of existence, even if a constitutional amendment isn't required.
There was an update in the data from PDI Inc, the firm that most reliably accumulates ballot data.
As of this morning, over 2.2 million ballots have been returned, and over half of them have come from registered Democrats.
I refuse to jinx myself, so I will add the caveat that anything is possible and the makeup of ballot returns could change. However, it's hard to imagine a world in which No wins with an electorate that's over 50% Democratic voters.
The world's busiest freeway, I-5 , might be closed this weekend because trump and friends at camp pendleton in south Orange County, CA are conducting military exercises as part of celebrating USMC 250th anniversary. I am sure this will go over real well with the thousands of motorists whose weekend will be totally f'd up by this closure: if it happens!
Cal-trans has indicated they won't be closing I-5 between south Orange County and Oceanside, but I got messaged from Metrolink that train service between Laguna Niguel (OC) and Oceanside (SD) will be suspended most of the day, both Metrolink and Amtrak.
I have just received emails and texts from my various representation that I -5 is indeed closing for 4 hours between OC and Oceanside. I cannot even imagine the traffic snarl.
Should be noted that Camp Pendleton is being looked into as a site for more housing. Might become a bit like the Presidio in San Francisco although the Presidio stopped being an active base decades ago.
Unlikely as Rep. Tom Suozzi already was notoriously difficult for the GOP to unseat prior to the race being open back in 2022.
With Santos losing to Suozzi back in 2020 by double digits, 12.5% points. I don't see a chance at him even remotely getting close to single digits. He'll likely lose to Suozzi in 2026 or 2028 by even more than 12.5% points.
What campaign would Santos even run?
SANTOS: "I've been through a lot and I'm back again to serve you again just like I did before!"
Vermont Republican State Senator Sam Douglass, who was the only elected official a part of Politico's chat exposé, has resigned following pressure from Governor Phil Scott.
The statement is as expected, blaming threats to his family's safety. Douglass and his wife made racist and anti-Semitic comments, and Scott and legislators in both parties threatened to investigate him.
The Orleans SD seat was a Republican flip in 2024 (59-40 R) after it became an open seat following the retirement of the Dem incumbent. A Special Election will be held at a later date.
No special election, there will be an appointment. Appointments are not required to be same-party but since Gov. Scott is a Republican as well, expect a Republican.
I may be jumping the gun this early in the race but I have a gut feeling that James Talarico is generating similar enthusiasm as Beto O'Rourke did in his original Senate run back in 2018.
Of course, O'Rourke was the only Democratic candidate running at the time so it was easy for him to run his campaign the way he did.
My girlfriend and I marched the whole route from 47th and 7th to 14th and 5th and then sat down and saw people continuing to come. The march was scheduled to finish at 1, but it's still going strong.
I've told her about it. She's legally blind and near deaf, so tv is hard. She used to be an avid reader, especially European history. Unfortunately, she leads a pretty awful existence, but I make it the best for her I can. Also, my two dogs dote on her. Part of the problem is dementia, and she's in and out. The day I put her on hospice, she acted like she had a stroke and didn't know who I was. Since then, most days have been good, but there's also been some truly ugly moments.
Just got back from mine in Culver City. I was going to head to the big one in Downtown LA like last time but because I have to handle some projects and I am meeting with a friend in West Hollywood tonight to go see Devo and the B-52s at the Hollywood Bowl, I need to stay more local for times sake. It worked out too because the Culver City Art Crawl was also happening today in the same area.
Rock lobster at the safety dance? Sounds like fun. Next month I'll see They Might Be Giants, who on their own time attended St Louis No Kings yesterday, according to their Insta.
Oh I saw TMBG at our local music festival in Pleasantville NY! One of my favorite bands and a super fun act. They sang “Sapphire Bullets of Pure Love” backwards. Great act.
My 2016-Trump-voting Greatest Gen in-laws went to our local No Kings. They went as part of a group organized by left leaning veterans. That group had a spot up front. >1000 people in Myrtle Beach which even for SC is pretty red. One arrest. A female in a car driving by waving a gun.
Incredible. Even the smaller protest I went to in Ossining, NY had a huge number of people. Something that I found hopeful too was that many of them were young people, like Millennials or Gen Z. Last time I was one of the few Gen Zers. Now I've seen many.
I didn't attend the one in my town (I really don't like crowds), but I live close enough to it that attendees parked along my road. I saw some people who were clearly walking back from the rally since they were carrying signs. One woman was carrying a sign that said "Fuck ICE". This in one of the whitest states in America.
Another protestor, a National Guardsman for 20 years, had a sign saying "Hegseth is a poser".
The local newspaper says that "thousands" of people attended the rally.
Watching this, I felt an emotion I've very seldom felt since the election last year: pride in Americans: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yvvPR5v2lM It's worth watching the whole thing, but if you want to skip past some of the coverage in L.A. (and bravo to the people of L.A. for turning out in such force!), a roundup of cities around and some outside the country starts at 5:11.
G. Elliott Morris estimates that all yesterday's No Kings rallies, combined, were the second largest single day protest in US history, after only the first Earth Day in 1970. Much larger than, for instance, the Tea Party protests that the media fawned over during the Obama era.
The first Women's March in New York felt bigger, but maybe that wasn't as nationwide, and my subjective perception could be wrong. How big were the biggest anti-Iraq War demonstrations, nationwide?
I don't know exactly; while they, and the Women's March demonstrations, were individually big (bigger?), there probably weren't as many of them nationally.
There have probably been bigger particular demonstrations in DC, NY, etc., but what sets No Kings apart is how many of them existed, with people able to organize in towns all over the country instead of having to travel to a major population hub. Particpants like those who unfurled a series of anti-Trump banners from a freeway overpass right by where I live, which brought an appreciative slowing of traffic from myself and other local motorists, are likely included.
I was heartened by the lack of chaos agents at any of them. Excellent self-regulation. The one I was at was pretty easygoing and they also made sure to remind us to vote against Ciatterelli for Gov unlike a certain waste of time demonstration hosted by Stewart and Colbert 15 years back (which I also attended and yeah it wasted organizer time and energy).
The one I went to told us to vote repeatedly, mentioning our useless Rep. Mike Lawler by name as one to vote out. Glad to see they’re encouraging action.
RIP Graham Platners senate bid. Let this be a lesson, don't bother running if you said stupid stuff online.
Yeah the rape comment was pretty awful. (Again, why can’t Troy Jackson run?)
I guess we know why mills jumped in.
any chance Platner quits?
Because he’s running for governor.
I mean like, why can’t he switch? He’s not polling well for Gov last I checked, and Bellows is also running as a progressive, so at this point why not?
Seems apparent that he doesn’t want to go to Washington. Or doesn’t want to leave Maine.
also my relatives in maine say he's really focused on the odious ballot initiatives the gop is pushing this november in maine, really positioning himself as leader against banning absentee voting when other gov candidates aren't doing/spending to protect mainers right to the franchise
It’s too soon to write him off. He can still win.
I remember ten years ago there was an insurgent candidate who said crazy stuff every day who nobody thought could win either a primary or a general. And today he’s president.
And Trump underperformed the fundamentals pretty significantly in all his runs. Not sure that’s an example we should be looking to when facing an entrenched incumbent. What is your point?
Huh? Trump consistently overperforms.
Based on polling, sure. Based on fundamentals, not even close.
Haley or most other establishment conservatives might have won an Obama 2008 sized victory in 2024, compared to the single point margin we lost by in reality.
Ugh the fundamentals weren't pointing to a GOP landslide at all; going by fundamentals Biden should have been re-elected fairly comfortably.
A deeply unpopular incumbent widely blamed, fairly or not, for economic inflation, who had to drop out in the middle of the summer, and was given no credit for his successes in arresting that inflation along with handling the worst pandemic in a century (almost exactly a century)? By summer of last year Biden's approval was in the 30s. It only started to recover at all once he dropped out. And "recover" is doing heavy lifting in that sentence: it was still in the low 40s after.
We'd have been utterly wiped out against most opponents. It was only against Trump that we had any chance.
If that's a standard, we're gonna have no one to run in 10 years time
That depends on what you mean by "stupid".
I agree; Dems are going to have to tone down the reactive outrage meter to any comments online that could be construed as offensive, because that's literally 90% of the population.
I'm not sure there is a tremendous amount of outrage, just an understanding that he successfully said a bunch of crap that will piss off both voters we need to convert in the red areas and left leaning votes that we need to turn out hard in the blue areas. 10,000 general election adds about the communist who thinks rural voters are idiots and rape victims are to blame will be just great.
I'm sorry, I think that's a totally disingenuous argument. We're all disappointed that this happened, but let's not pretend that the things he *publicly posted* are things that the majority of people have said. If a Republican did something similar, we'd be pulling our hair out calling them a monster. The problem with a double standard isn't that Dems are held to a high standard, it's that Republicans aren't. It's rare for this to happen to us, so it's not like we won't have any candidates if we hold ourselves to basic standards of decency. To say otherwise is frankly an insult to the vast majority of Democrats who've never said/posted anything similar. Should we be more accepting of foibles in our candidates and not demand they be perfect? Definitely. There are lots of people we should give second chances to and be a stronger party because of it. This is on another level, though.
Republicans will run ad after ad blasting this out to the general public if he becomes the nominee and it will lose us the election. Even if people here are willing to forgive him, the voters we need won't. I don't think we should disqualify all unconventional candidates, but this is a step too far. Mills may not be exciting, but she's not a shill like some of the other "safe" choices foisted on us by the DSCC. She's definitely not so odious that it's worth shooting ourselves in the foot just to spite the powers that be. I'm disappointed, too, as I originally supported Platner over Mills, but this is a dealbreaker that we shouldn't overlook.
I'm on vacation so I'm not reading all that but I will say that while the comments are despicable, the apology he issued was refreshingly sincere and genuine and people are overreacting.
If enough voters "overreact", and he's the Democratic candidate in the general, Susan Collins will be reelected.
People thought Bernie Moreno was an unelectable candidate.
Republican in a Republican state that's repeatedly voted for Trump, so why did people think that?
Weren't you also complaining about how unelectable Zohran was?
Yes. But you have to admit the situation in New York City is entirely different, with this city being much more Democratic than Maine and there being no incumbent who's won again and again. I could be wrong in being concerned that a candidate who made the idiotic statements Platner made will lose, but if Collins wins, the Democrats have no chance to flip the Senate next year.
The wheels are falling off...
“The political director for Graham Platner’s U.S. Senate campaign resigned Friday after Platner’s past online posts featuring numerous controversial remarks resurfaced this week,” the Bangor Daily News reports.
https://politicalwire.com/2025/10/17/staffer-quits-from-graham-platners-campaign/
What am I interested in?
Primaries. Dem, GOP, left, center, right, swing seat, any. 2026 is becoming the year of the primary, and I’m very curious to see where this goes.
Question for posters here - any primaries you’ve been watching? Anyone you’d like to see primaried for whatever reason? By who? Anyone you don’t want primaried? Any primaries you’ve heard about locally in your area?
I'd like to see Brad Sherman primaried by someone who isn't a Crypto Bro.
I've been following IL09 too because while I'm not sure about Kat Abughazaleh's chances I am interested to see how her new brand of politics works out in the long run.
I really like Mai Vang, who's challenging Doris Matsui in Ca-7. Both bc Vang is running on a more progressive platform and she's like 40 years younger.
Ofc I'm also interested in any primary Justice Democrats is wading into, since it seems like they're taking a different approach and backing just a few candidates who have a background in elected office.
I also think Joyce Beatty, Rob Menendez, and Hakeem Jeffires need challengers asap.
Beatty just because of her age, or is there something else wrong with her?
Partially because of age and health- she missed a narrow vote on funding for PBS & NPR while undergoing surgery. She's also just mediocre at best, or actively bad like when she voted yes on a resolution praising ICE this year.
Plus I like Morgan Harper, who performed alright in her 2020 challenge given the primary was completely upended in its final weeks bc of Covid. She expressed interest in challenging Beatty again in 2024, but never went through w it. This cycle definitely has a more favorable environment for Harper if she goes for a rematch.
Jeffries may have a challenger — there’s been talk NYC Councilman Chi Ossé is interested.
Currently I'm interested in the primaries that point towards the future of our party. I cannot bring myself to care that much about republican primaries: while the distinctions between them can be real, at the end of the day they all vote in lockstep when it matters.
MN-Sen and MI-Sen stand out to me. Pretty standard battle lines there.
I'm also curious about IL-09. I really didn't expect to like her campaign at all but I've been impressed by Abughazaleh. I doubt she'll win but I'm deeply curious how well she does and what, if anything, we can gleam from her different approach to campaigning. Biss looks like the most likely winner there and I'd probably be happiest with him winning. So this is a primary I'm curious about more for pure curiosity than for wanting someone in particular to win or to lose.
Too early for anything to interesting to happen yet, but I'll be watching the primary to succeed Moulton. Hopefully we don't get a 2020 MA-04 repeat, where a single moderate wins with a tiny plurality while the progressives split the vote. I suppose I'm also interested in MA-Sen too, but I'm more excited to see Moulton lose than I am to see Markey win in his 80s.
TX-Sen is another interesting one. Talarico is someone that I think has a better chance of reaching the voters we need in Texas, and him being a christian on the left is a distinctly different profile than what we see in politics today. It would be interesting to see him in a high profile office for that alone.
https://www.kqed.org/news/12060477/scott-wiener-expected-to-run-for-nancy-pelosis-congressional-seat
Scott Weiner, CA senator, is expected to announce next week that he's running for Pelosi's seat. Pelosi has said she won't announce her intentions until after the prop 50 election. He has previously deferred to Pelosi, so he's either gotten advanced notice of her decision, or he senses a different environment that favors youth.
UGH…
Scott Weiner is not a fit for the House. Plenty of San Franciscans are not happy with him, especially with his antics towards the recall of Supervisor Joel Engardio and being a square.
If I was living in SF, I would not vote for him. David Chiu, Mark Leno and others for sure.
Hell, CA State Controller Malia Cohen could be persuaded to run for the House. She used to be a Supervisor in SF and is black Jewish, a unique mix for a politician in the city.
I never seriously thought Dem voters were ever going to choose an insurgent over a Governor in a high-stakes Senate primary, even though Mills does have liabilities. But even I’m surprised at how fast Platner imploded. If this is Mills’ work and opposition research, I must confess they couldn’t have executed it any better than they did after her campaign launch.
Mills or her allies makes by far the most sense as the source of the info. Woods, I assume, doesn't have the resources to do that level of oppo research on a primary opponent. Collins would be strongly incentivized to sit on it until the general election. I don't recall CNN having any history of independently doing this kind of research into primary candidate flaws. Mills has the reason and the means.
I was genuinely surprised she decided to run, because it doesn't seem like she wants to. I'm 99% certain the Platner stuff was shown to her before she announced and it proved to her she'd be the strongest candidate. Although I was initially upset at the DSCC intervening here, they've been vindicated for now. They still need to butt out of MI-Sen, though.
With Trump aggressively pushing NC, IN, & KS to redraw I would like to see some movement on redraws in Illinois and Maryland. The filing deadline in Illinois is next month (they can push it back) but the reluctance from some members is frustrating. With the looming VRA decision and more states trying to rig the next election some pols need to take one for the team.
Not just next month, in a little over two weeks. They’ll almost certainly have to push it back.
Haven’t seen these numbers posted yet, but new downballot VA House of Delegates campaign fundraising reports are out.
https://x.com/samshirazim/status/1978810483827228747
Visit VPAP if you want a district by district breakdown for both party candidates, but the bottom line for the latest fundraising quarter:
Democrats: $16.4m raised
Republicans: $5.6m raised
What were the numbers back at this point in 2017?
Seems like this could be another 2017 and even worse for the GOP.
I dunno if I can actually search for the exact numbers for Q3, but total COH in 2017 had Republicans raising more.
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/underneath-it-all-elections-for-the-virginia-house-of-delegates/
Lastly, Table 2 presents the overall campaign finance data for candidates in each party. It shows just how much of a financial edge the GOP has overall — roughly two-to-one in cash-on-hand. Despite fairly strong fundraising from Democratic candidates, the Republicans have still outraised them.
In a sign of how badly the professional election forecasters can misread an election, this quote is hilarious in hindsight and proof that these orgs don’t always know what’s going to happen:
Based on what we know about the race, it’s probably relatively close, and we continue to see Northam as a modest but hardly overwhelming favorite. But the margin will matter for these down-ticket races. A Northam win by two points or so might mean only two-to-four seats for Democrats, whereas a Northam win by five points could mean more GOP-held seats fall to the Democrats. On the other hand, a nail-biter or Gillespie win could trim the Democratic gains even further.
Northman won by 9 points and Democrats actually flipped 15 seats in that election for anyone curious.
Yeah, I get what you’re saying.
I don’t always by default read much into fundraising initially as it doesn’t always translate into election wins.
However, given this election season has shown Democrats on the move in picking up multiple seats nationwide in various races, that along with these fundraising numbers suggests there is potential for the party to win more in states like VA.
After the SCOTUS guts Section 2 of the VRA, elections will be largely pointless.
Some days, it's just very hard to stay optimistic.
Wait, aren't comments like this explicitly not allowed? Like, doomsaying stuff?
Also I'm pretty sure the VRA doesn't affect Senate races.
Furthermore, we don't actually know how SCOTUS will react. Someone a few days ago here noted that the justices may not actually gut Section 2 in full -- just make it harder to use.
I don't know the specifics of the rule, but the comment above yours may very well not be allowed.
Hopefully the moderators will come by and clarify whether stuff like that is allowed. Personally I hope it isn't.
A written policy would greatly benefit everyone...
Agreed completely.
This is not true actually.
1. SCOTUS probably won’t rule until June, way too late for any effects to happen until 2028.
2. GOP may not max out with redraws. Objections from some R congresspeople in those states or gov/state leg. pushback is possible, like we are seeing with non-VRA redraws.
3. By 2028, Democrats may have retaliated with their own redraws.
4. Section 2 obviously has no effect on statewide elections or presidential results.
And as I said, we don’t actually know how SCOTUS will rule. Last I heard there was some skepticism to Louisiana’s argument in addition to VRA skepticism. It’s too soon to declare it all dead I think.
Chris Geidner at Law Dork (good follow on BlueSky btw) thinks it will be a narrow ruling. He’s pretty good at gauging oral arguments and results (good track record on Dobbs and other big cases). He’s also a sharp critic of the shadow docket and its greatly expanded use on the Roberts Court.
David Shor agreed with him and he’d usually a pessimist
That said who knows. A narrowing of S2’s use is still not a great outcome, especially once 2030’s cycle rolls around
Number 3 is what I’m most frustrated by. They have not. States with commissions or who are otherwise stuck with maps in 2026 (WA, NY, NJ, CO, tbd VA) need to be making moves NOW to get shit in place for 2028. I see no indication that Governors/state parties in those states or the DNC is pushing them on this. The VRA will be gutted and everyone is gonna go “whoops, well what can else do now?”
Dems historically have had a habit of not preparing for the likelihood of something very bad happening (like 2010) and then when it happens they are just dumbfounded even though many others were shouting from the rooftops about it for a year leading up to it. I mean seriously, who are these so called “campaign operatives” that often seem to have no common sense that the party has been paying?
Was there any point in elections before the Voting Rights Act? How were the members of Congress who enacted that act elected? There's your answer. Don't give up so easily!
Very good point Michael. Also worth noting that even then our democracy wasn’t totally sound. If we could survive that, we could survive this.
I hope y'all are right. I have zero confidence that this court won't seize an opportunity to install one-party rule for a generation or more.
Fighting against dictatorships isn't for cowards, but it's been successful before.
Our federal elections weren’t nearly as polarized then. Bad comparison
I will also add that Dems controlled the House for 40 years (!) consecutively in that era. So we may be on the precipice of a similar era of GOP dominance. I hope not.
The 60s were also a time when a whole bunch of people were lynched and otherwise assassinated. It's the last decade that was more violent in politics than this one. Yet the popular will produced results.
I think we’re agreeing? I was pointing out that, in an era before the Voting Rights Act, Dems could win House and Senate seats all across rural America that they would have no chance in now. And eradicating the VRA will make it that much worse.
No-one on this site is going to argue that it's good to weaken, let alone overturn the Voting Rights Act! It's infuriating to have to refight all the civil rights and women's rights battles of the 60s and 70s! But if it was possible to win them once (or in some cases, twice), it's possible to win them again.
Well they’ve controlled it for most of the last 30 years. 22 years if my math is right. The senate has been more evenly divided.
Don’t post this pessimistic bullshit please, it’s not particularly helpful.
You know there's a lot of distance between "everything's fine" and "we're all doomed".
Where did I ever say "we're all doomed"? I'll wait.
I merely pointed out that the SCOTUS is poised to put House control out of Democratic reach for a generation or more, on top of said party's major disadvantage in winning Senate (small conservative states disproportionately represented) and executive control (Electoral College).
And, oh yeah, the judiciary is gone for God-knows-how-long too.
Control of the House will only be out of reach if the GOP maximize their redistricting gains as a result and Democrats fail to retaliate in response.
Even if Dems do retaliate we're looking at a 5 point gap. The House will be out of reach in everything except for a wave year, we only would've won the House in 2006 and 2018 in the last 25 years.
Being pessimistic is OK. I have my worries and fears about the future, and present, of our political system. It doesn't help to give in to despondency though, nor to spread it to others. This country, and many other countries, have survived worse. And, bluntly, the #1 thing wanted by the malignant actors corrupting our systems to their benefit is for us to see it as pointless and give up.
Keep trying, hold onto hope, look for the way forward, until the very, very end.
Hey Brad. I get it. But look at the response yesterday in the streets. When we take things back, we'll have the chance to rebuild what has been damaged. Some of which needed a major rehaul anyway. Pete Buttigieg had good commentary on that.
So chin up my friend. Take a media break if you need to, like Techno did. Find some place with nature to recharge It's a dumpster fire now, but we'll prevail. Hugs to you.
https://x.com/grahamformaine/status/1979312580490596829?t=wNiP7cKZTdv4iSXqFZ9quw&s=19
Comments on his page show that Platner is getting pretty receptive response from his apology, especially with his experience coming from serving in combat in Afghanistan. Comments are particularly emphasizing him not coming across as a narcissist or gaslighting anything. He's talking about coping with PTSD and depression at the time his controversial comments were made.
Remains to be seen how this plays out in the primary race.
Shocker that people who follow him on social media are supportive after his apology.
There are some comments that are not as sympathetic, especially with the sexual assault rhetoric.
That said, Platner's going to have to deal with this and be probed again both at the debate stage and through the media if he wants to genuinely run for the Senate.
https://www.kcra.com/article/california-special-election-prop-50-ballot-data/69074803
As of Thursday night, about 1.8 million ballots have been cast in California's prop 50 measure. 9% of eligible Democratic, 9% of Republican, and 6% of independent. These are similar numbers to the Newsom recall election.
Ahnold may think he's got the power in fighting against Prop 50.
However, since he last left office back in 2010 after Jerry Brown won the gubernatorial election, CA has changed significantly to the degree where Democrats have more power than they used to. If the 2021 recall election wasn't enough, Prop 50 may be more proof.
Ahnold should have show real courage! He ought to have gone to Texas to fight the gerrymander there!
Ahnold in Predator:
“Get to the choppa! We have to get to Texas and fight the gerrymander there! Get to the choppa!”
He was so embarrassing on Maher last night defending the dumb commission. “We need to take the power away from the left and right and give it back to the people!” Like, what the hell does that even mean
Ahnold means well but he has been out of office since 2010 and has fallen out of favor by the political environment a long time ago.
A truly independent commission works better in a less polarized environment. Now is not the time though to pursue this.
It will work well if it's mandated nationwide and backed up by a Supreme Court enlarged by 4 members.
Yeah, we're at the point now of republicans' anti-democratic actions that I do not think independent commissions are inherently durable enough.
A mandate could revive representation that isn't tied to districts. Functionally similar to at-large seats but tie them explicitly to allowing each state to achieve a proportional result for representation.
Proportional representation didn't work well in Israel. Germany has a mixture of proportional and constituency representation. But I think that fighting for something other than districts is not likely to bear fruit, as we'd have to have a majority of the House voting their districts out of existence, even if a constitutional amendment isn't required.
Agreed.
There was an update in the data from PDI Inc, the firm that most reliably accumulates ballot data.
As of this morning, over 2.2 million ballots have been returned, and over half of them have come from registered Democrats.
I refuse to jinx myself, so I will add the caveat that anything is possible and the makeup of ballot returns could change. However, it's hard to imagine a world in which No wins with an electorate that's over 50% Democratic voters.
The world's busiest freeway, I-5 , might be closed this weekend because trump and friends at camp pendleton in south Orange County, CA are conducting military exercises as part of celebrating USMC 250th anniversary. I am sure this will go over real well with the thousands of motorists whose weekend will be totally f'd up by this closure: if it happens!
Time to get billboards on the roads in the area, that say "Get back at Trump - vote Yes on Prop 50!".
Cal-trans has indicated they won't be closing I-5 between south Orange County and Oceanside, but I got messaged from Metrolink that train service between Laguna Niguel (OC) and Oceanside (SD) will be suspended most of the day, both Metrolink and Amtrak.
I have just received emails and texts from my various representation that I -5 is indeed closing for 4 hours between OC and Oceanside. I cannot even imagine the traffic snarl.
Should be noted that Camp Pendleton is being looked into as a site for more housing. Might become a bit like the Presidio in San Francisco although the Presidio stopped being an active base decades ago.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-09-28/camp-pendleton
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/17/trump-clemency-george-santos-00614693?utm_content=politico/magazine/Politics&utm_source=flipboard
Former Rep. George Santos (R-NY) has been granted clemency and is expected to be released from prison
Wonder if he'll challenge Rep. Suozzi for another go - the electorate in Nassau and northern Queens seems to swing
Would people even vote for him? He's practically a national name due to his scandals.
I’m just surprised Trump cared enough to free him, it’s not like Santos had any money to bribe him with.
Future cabinet secretary?
Suozzi would annihilate him even in a red wave.
Unlikely as Rep. Tom Suozzi already was notoriously difficult for the GOP to unseat prior to the race being open back in 2022.
With Santos losing to Suozzi back in 2020 by double digits, 12.5% points. I don't see a chance at him even remotely getting close to single digits. He'll likely lose to Suozzi in 2026 or 2028 by even more than 12.5% points.
What campaign would Santos even run?
SANTOS: "I've been through a lot and I'm back again to serve you again just like I did before!"
Vermont Republican State Senator Sam Douglass, who was the only elected official a part of Politico's chat exposé, has resigned following pressure from Governor Phil Scott.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/17/lawmaker-resigns-after-involvement-in-racist-chat-00614823
The statement is as expected, blaming threats to his family's safety. Douglass and his wife made racist and anti-Semitic comments, and Scott and legislators in both parties threatened to investigate him.
The Orleans SD seat was a Republican flip in 2024 (59-40 R) after it became an open seat following the retirement of the Dem incumbent. A Special Election will be held at a later date.
No special election, there will be an appointment. Appointments are not required to be same-party but since Gov. Scott is a Republican as well, expect a Republican.
Good riddance…what cushy position in the federal govt will he be appointed to after this? Everyone fails upward in MAGA world as we know.
The fact that this has happened in VT in all places can mean only one thing for the GOP:
Fail.
Vermont just went from being dark blue to deep dark blue.
TX-SEN:
I may be jumping the gun this early in the race but I have a gut feeling that James Talarico is generating similar enthusiasm as Beto O'Rourke did in his original Senate run back in 2018.
Of course, O'Rourke was the only Democratic candidate running at the time so it was easy for him to run his campaign the way he did.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gP7jcz5g8zg
Headed to my local No Kings protest today! Anyone else?
working today
It happens. I took the day off to march today, but not everyone can do that.
Yes.
My girlfriend and I marched the whole route from 47th and 7th to 14th and 5th and then sat down and saw people continuing to come. The march was scheduled to finish at 1, but it's still going strong.
Working too. But hoping we get out early since we had an early 1st shot.
I'll be out of town and the place I'm going doesn't have one :(
It's in the U.S.?
Yes, and even if this place had one I have a prior commitment that will take up my time there
That happens. There will be other marches!
I was planning on it, but my dog has been in the hospital since thursday night.
I hope your dog ends up OK!
I wish your furry friend a full and speedy recovery.
I'm sorry. I wish them a speedy recovery!
Sorry to hear. Wishing your dog well.
Best wishes for a full recovery.
Wishing your dog a speedy recovery.
I'll be attending one (it starts at 12, ends at 4) starting about 1ish when my girlfriend gets here.
Headed to one in the town my mom lives in.
Hopefully the Missouri ones all have people there gathering signatures to stop the new Republican gerrymander.
I was unable to find someone to stay with my mom for 4 hours, so I couldn't go to the no kings protest.
I needed some work done, so my form of protest was to hire a worker from the Home Depot parking lot who I know is undocumented.
Recalling your heartbreaking (in multiple ways) post about her prop 50 vote. I hope she was able to watch the protest on TV and cheer along.
I've told her about it. She's legally blind and near deaf, so tv is hard. She used to be an avid reader, especially European history. Unfortunately, she leads a pretty awful existence, but I make it the best for her I can. Also, my two dogs dote on her. Part of the problem is dementia, and she's in and out. The day I put her on hospice, she acted like she had a stroke and didn't know who I was. Since then, most days have been good, but there's also been some truly ugly moments.
I sympathize with you so much.
On the Jun 14 no kings protest, I took her to the one in DTLA by light rail.
Just got back from mine in Culver City. I was going to head to the big one in Downtown LA like last time but because I have to handle some projects and I am meeting with a friend in West Hollywood tonight to go see Devo and the B-52s at the Hollywood Bowl, I need to stay more local for times sake. It worked out too because the Culver City Art Crawl was also happening today in the same area.
You are having a day of culture! Enjoy the concert tonight!
Rock lobster at the safety dance? Sounds like fun. Next month I'll see They Might Be Giants, who on their own time attended St Louis No Kings yesterday, according to their Insta.
Oh I saw TMBG at our local music festival in Pleasantville NY! One of my favorite bands and a super fun act. They sang “Sapphire Bullets of Pure Love” backwards. Great act.
My 2016-Trump-voting Greatest Gen in-laws went to our local No Kings. They went as part of a group organized by left leaning veterans. That group had a spot up front. >1000 people in Myrtle Beach which even for SC is pretty red. One arrest. A female in a car driving by waving a gun.
https://bsky.app/profile/indivisible.org/post/3m3icgv53tk2f
Wow!!
Incredible. Even the smaller protest I went to in Ossining, NY had a huge number of people. Something that I found hopeful too was that many of them were young people, like Millennials or Gen Z. Last time I was one of the few Gen Zers. Now I've seen many.
https://bsky.app/profile/iwillnotbesilenced.bsky.social/post/3m3ipm7s52c2h
Favorite signs seen at No Kings Protest: "One nation under duress" and "One nation in distress"
I didn't attend the one in my town (I really don't like crowds), but I live close enough to it that attendees parked along my road. I saw some people who were clearly walking back from the rally since they were carrying signs. One woman was carrying a sign that said "Fuck ICE". This in one of the whitest states in America.
Another protestor, a National Guardsman for 20 years, had a sign saying "Hegseth is a poser".
The local newspaper says that "thousands" of people attended the rally.
Watching this, I felt an emotion I've very seldom felt since the election last year: pride in Americans: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yvvPR5v2lM It's worth watching the whole thing, but if you want to skip past some of the coverage in L.A. (and bravo to the people of L.A. for turning out in such force!), a roundup of cities around and some outside the country starts at 5:11.
G. Elliott Morris estimates that all yesterday's No Kings rallies, combined, were the second largest single day protest in US history, after only the first Earth Day in 1970. Much larger than, for instance, the Tea Party protests that the media fawned over during the Obama era.
The first Women's March in New York felt bigger, but maybe that wasn't as nationwide, and my subjective perception could be wrong. How big were the biggest anti-Iraq War demonstrations, nationwide?
I don't know exactly; while they, and the Women's March demonstrations, were individually big (bigger?), there probably weren't as many of them nationally.
There have probably been bigger particular demonstrations in DC, NY, etc., but what sets No Kings apart is how many of them existed, with people able to organize in towns all over the country instead of having to travel to a major population hub. Particpants like those who unfurled a series of anti-Trump banners from a freeway overpass right by where I live, which brought an appreciative slowing of traffic from myself and other local motorists, are likely included.
I was heartened by the lack of chaos agents at any of them. Excellent self-regulation. The one I was at was pretty easygoing and they also made sure to remind us to vote against Ciatterelli for Gov unlike a certain waste of time demonstration hosted by Stewart and Colbert 15 years back (which I also attended and yeah it wasted organizer time and energy).
I saw this sign at the rally: https://www.reddit.com/r/simpsonsshitposting/s/dH8eEiLThI
The one I went to told us to vote repeatedly, mentioning our useless Rep. Mike Lawler by name as one to vote out. Glad to see they’re encouraging action.
I want every eligible voter who participated in yesterday’s No Kings Day vote in every eligible election going forward.
Count me in.