Sure, I’ll start. Hope someone at DSCC or that has Schumer’s ear sees this. Laura Kelly should be recruitment target number 1 for the next six months. Subtly. Have her ride her 60% approvals as long as she can and then announce her Senate run on June 1.
Agreed. Peltola has signaled more interest, is more likely to win, and could serve longer should she win. That race becomes legitimately competitive with her running, whereas Laura Kelly would still be a long shot.
Not so sure it’s much a longshot anymore, at least compared to Alaska. They voted very closely together last year. An overperformance like Bredesen got in 2018 would be a narrow Kelly win.
As long as we get either Peltola or Kawasaki in Alaska, I’m good. Kelly is the only one that can win the Kansas seat.
Are we positive no-one else could possibly be the next Kay Hagan out of the Kansas Legislature or something? If Kelly won't run, someone else might win if things go amazingly haywire for the Republicans.
I suspect it’d take someone more prominent to do that in Kansas. Kelly is the only one with a real chance with her approval ratings and universal name recognition.
I understand, and the likelihood is that no Democrat can win that seat. Otherwise, no need for us to repeat our statements; I think we understand each other.
I think Alaska is a slightly better target when all the pros/cons are weighed but getting Kelly would be great and give us a shot at another seat. If not like Michael says below we should still try to get someone who can run a real race. I'm skeptical we can win a Trump + 16 state even with Kelly but we are not exactly drowning in great pickup opportunities anyway.
CO-Gov: Just pointing out Phil Weiser is also in favor of redistricting in response to the GOP's efforts. Leaning towards him in the primary as I have had good interactions the handful of times I have had to contact his office and Bennett should finish the Senate term vs. picking a successor.
Alright, here's some more races I'm interested in, like I did the last two weekends.
- NC-04: Does Nida Allam have a chance? I've heard the current rep Valerie Foushee has moved to the left since taking office, and is a CPC member. Is that enough to survive a primary?
- MA-01: There's been little talk of this, but Rep. Richard Neal has a primary challenge from teacher Jeromie Whalen, who is running from the left. I don't think Whalen will win, but what might the margins be?
- PA-12: There was talk that Pittsburgh City Controller Rachel Heisler was interested in challenging Rep. Summer Lee from the center. Is this still a possibility? And given Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey's recent loss, plus progressives losing the Allegheny DA race and winning the Allegheny County Exec race by not great margins, should Lee/progressives be worried here?
- CA-22: Who might be the Dem here, Jasmeet Bains or Randy Villegas? And could either of them beat David Valadao?
- PA in general: Are we seeing improvement here, based on the Supreme Court retention races and the Bucks County flips? PA-01, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, and the state legislature will be interesting to watch.
- MN state legislature: Could we take it back? Will the Walz scandal affect us here?
- KS-Sen: Could outgoing Gov. Laura Kelly make a surprise late entry?
- NJ-05: Might Josh Gottheimer get a primary challenge? If so, from who?
- WI-Sen, 2028: Might Ron Johnson retire? Who's our strongest candidate? And could Ben Wikler run?
- Not really a race, but NY Dem Chair: Will Jay Jacobs ever retire? What is it going to take to get rid of him? He is useless and keeps losing. We just lost Nassau County's races again even though Jacobs is from there. Hochul is the real brains behind NY's elections in my opinion. What does Jacobs bring to the party?
- CT-Gov: Does Josh Elliott have anything resembling a chance here? I'm not confident, but we'll see.
- Los Angeles Mayor: Karen Bass is probably fucked as mayor I think. Assuming this is true, who might be the next mayor? Are we at risk of Caruso winning? Could another candidate like Beutner win?
- Los Angeles City Council: The left made gains here recently. Will those gains continue, or will they reverse? I'll be interested in CD-01, with a very left-wing incumbent being challenged from the center, and CD-11, with the inverse situation of a centrist incumbent and left-wing challenger.
- AL-Gov: While I don't think Doug Jones will win, what might the margins be?
- NJ-11 special: Is Brendan Gill a shoe-in, or do Tahesha Way or Analilia Mejia have a shot?
- Chicago mayor: I've heard Brandon Johnson's popularity is going up. Is it enough to save him? If not, who is his leading replacement?
I think I'll stop here because I'm going to be busy tonight.
I wonder if we can get another credible Democrat to run in PA-16. In 2018, Ron DiNicola narrowed it to a very close 4 points and it's around the same partisan lean as TN-7 at R +11. Would be nice to see more Democratic presence up in Erie.
Yes, except now it includes all of conservative Butler County and parts of Venango County, which is less conservative than Butler, but still very Republican. Erie County as well as the cities of New Castle and Hermitage are the only blue points in the district, generally speaking.
Yeah that district seems to have gone the way of the neighboring Mahoning Valley in Ohio. Dems have been lucky to have held up so comparatively well in Erie.
But it also has only elected Republicans to the House since 1976, with the exception of Kathy Dahlkemper for one term. Regarding the last democrat to win the district before her, After some newspaper called Democratic Congressman Joseph Vigorito “Jumping Joe”, his popularity dropped and he was defeated for reelection. Jumping Joe is apparently the worst thing you can call a Representative.
This information comes from the 1976 and 1982 versions of the almanac of American politics.
Ohio had a longtime Democratic statewide official called "Jumpin' Joe" Ferguson, who was state Auditor from 1937-52 and 1971-74, plus Treasurer from 1959-62.
But his one foray into federal level politics was a 1950 Senate race in which he lost to Robert Taft by a 58-42 landslide.
If Rob Bonta runs for Governor, SF City Attorney David Chiu sounds like an ideal choice. He’s served as SF Supervisor, CA State Assembly and as City Attorney is perfectly suitable to transition to the role as Attorney General.
Regarding the Los Angeles Mayoral Race:
Rick Caruso is the only candidate who has a realistic chance of unseating Karen Bass even while her image as Mayor was tarnished from the Palisades Fires. Otherwise, I see Bass narrowly winning re-election in 2026 considering Trump and ICE have done a lot of harm, especially with regards to the Hispanic residents living in LA.
WI-SEN 2028:
Ron Johnson is toast. If he runs for re-election, the political environment will be worse for him than in 2010, 2016 and 2022. His margins of re-election have shrunk in 2016 and 2022.
Unless Democrats have another screw up in 2028 like they did in 2022 with Mandela Barnes, Johnson is quite a vulnerable GOP incumbent Senator.
You're sure you know what the political environment will be in 2028? Are you also betting on the Kentucky Derby winner for that year now? Johnson just keeps winning, so being so sure he'll lose is foolish.
Yeah I’ve stopped betting against Ron Johnson long ago. I still blame Feingold for being asleep at the switch in 2010 and letting him win in the first place. An early Harry Reid style negative campaign out of the gate probably would have knocked Johnson out early in that race.
Feingold was always more of a natural policy wonk than a natural politician. But the wave hit Wisconsin so hard that year that he was probably doomed regardless.
The much bigger surprise IMO was 2016, where he looked poised to make a comeback until the very end.
Years ago, someone posted on Daily Kos that watching Wisconsin choose Johnson over Feingold (twice!) was like watching your mom divorce your dad so that she could date Carrot Top.
Winning by less than he did before in each of his Senate races is not a good sign no matter how you spin it. It means Johnson really does not have strong incumbency power.
He also ran against Russ Feingold twice in 2010 and 2016, an environment that did not favor Democrats very well. Mandela Barnes also shot himself in the foot in the Senate race but did better than Feingold. In all such elections, a Democrat was POTUS. This won’t be the case in 2028.
I am mainly making the assertion that assuming 2028 will be an unfavorable environment to the GOP on par with 2008, Johnson won’t be able to leverage it in his favor.
Put it this way - Johnson has been lucky to be elected to the Senate. The only way he will be able to lose his Senate seat is if the political environment and circumstances do not work in his favor.
We of course don't know what the political environment of 2028 will be, but most likely it'll have an unpopular Republican president who can't run again--which was not true of 2010, 16, or 22.
I agree on "most likely," but only guardedly so and certainly not enough to be positive that a 3-term Republican senator would definitely lose his seat if he ran for a fourth term. He's such an inept candidate that he keeps winning!
The 2028 political environment is subject to change but it’s getting closer to what 2008 was like for the GOP at the time President Bush was still in office.
Of course, we still have the 2026 midterms to face but assuming they are going to be on par with 2006 or worse for the GOP, 2008 had a greater probability of really killing the party at the ballot box.
Right now, I am mainly going by what the current political environment is assuming the trajectory continues to stay the course and accelerate even more.
Tony Evers was running for re-election back in 2022 but as Governor, he would have likely been a stronger candidate against Ron Johnson than Mandela Barnes. Evers also unseated Scott Walker and knew how to run a strong machine of a campaign in order to accomplish this.
Unfortunately, Lt Governors don’t have as high profiles as Governors do. Senator Fetterman is an exception although he was just Mayor of Braddock for years and did not have any prior experience in PA state government (and of course, Dr Oz was a lame duck Senate candidate from the beginning who ran an inept campaign). If Barnes had already been Governor, things might have worked more in his favor back in 2022. Who knows.
NC-4: With Foushee's shift to the left, no, Allam does not stand a chance.
MA-1: Neal should easily secure another term. I don't imagine his challenger will come within 20 points. Neal could retire in 2028 and have an even 40 years in Congress.
PA-12: Lee shouldn't be worried, and she shouldn't even be worried if ideological PACs boost Heisler. If Omar can win in Minneapolis, Lee can win in Pittsburgh - and as someone who lives within two hours of Pittsburgh, it's not as liberal as a place like Minneapolis but Lee will still win easily.
CA-22: Bains not only seems to have the establishment backing, but should be the favorite to defeat Valadao, given that she represents a lot of his current district in the Assembly.
PA: I see PA-7 and PA-10 flipping by at least 4 points each, PA 8 flipping by a narrower margin, and Fitzpatrick finally having a real fight in PA-1 - perhaps below 5 points, but he'll win re-election.
KS: Kelly has been pretty adamant about her political career being over and given her advanced age and the climate of Kansas federally (no Democrat has been elected senator for some 90 years!!!) I think she'll stay out.
CA-AG: I can't read the article at the moment because the webpage archive service I use is down, but I'll come back and edit later.
NJ-05: I doubt Gottheimer will get a primary - his district is still relatively conservative, even with Sherill's gains last month.
WI-Sen: Johnson sure seems to enjoy his time as a senator, but 73 is a reasonable age to retire. I imagine a few of the failed gubernatorial candidates next year could be interested on both sides, as well as Wikler. Additionally, I think Josh Kaul could finally make a run for higher office rather than Attorney General. For Republicans, if Johnson retires, businessman Scott Mayer has already planned running, while I imagine perennial candidates like Eric Hovde and Tim Michels will try running if they lose the governor's race, too.
NY Dem chair: Jacobs is in his 70s - I'm sure he'll retire somewhat soon. I just fear that he'll be replaced with someone similar despite New York's extensive progressive bench.
CT-Gov: Lamont will easily win re-election. Elliott's campaign was DOA.
LA mayor: Bass's re-election depends on how many challengers she has. If it's one or two major challengers like Caruso or Beutner, she's toast, but if more jump in she could even win again.
AL-Gov: Probably around 15 for Tuberville. Tuberville won by 20 against Jones in 2020 so I'd say Jones can run up the margin by around 5.
NJ-11: I'd argue Tom Mallinowski has already made it competitive against Gill, while Way and Mejia are just filler candidates.
Chicago mayor: Considering the number of potential challengers he already has, Johnson should be fine going into 2027.
About KS-Senate: No Democrat will win either of those seats again until one does. Just like most other things in politics. The "impossible" eventually happens.
Why is Lamont not in more trouble after the highly disappointing moves he made in his current term as Governor?
About the NY Democratic Chair, Hochul is not that different from Cuomo, minus the sexual harassment and bullying. Remember, everyone, when she tried to put a terrible right-wing judge on the Court of Appeals, the highest court in the state, and had to be voted down by her own party's Legislature? Whenever Jacobs retires or dies, the governor gets to name his replacement, I think? Correct me if I'm wrong; I might be.
This may have been 2014 but if Greg Orman was unable to unseat Senator Pat Roberts then, the notion of any Democrat winning the Senate race is very improbable.
Democrats are more likely to continue winning statewide in state government elected office than in federal office in the state.
2014 was a year where Republicans gained 9 Senate seats and won governorships in Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts. It’s shocking Kansas was as close as it was in light of that. 2026 looks likely to be at least 10-15 points bluer than 2014.
I think the establishment in Chicago learned their lesson from 2019 and 2023 and will coalesce around one candidate, particularly someone who hasn't run for Mayor before. My guess is Ald. Bill Conway. They'll try, as much as they can, to avoid a run-off and get 50% in the first round. If they can't clear the field for that, they'll try to make sure their candidate gets something in the high 40s in the first round so their election seems inevitable. They hate Johnson and they really hate CTU.
Just what do people have against Summer Lee? I hope she smashes any opposition once again. About Richard Neal: That's interesting. I thought he was a good liberal Congressman. No? What's the left-wing objection to him?
The stuck around for forever but actually pretty good congressman from MA is McGovern. Might have confused the two because they've both been around for forever? And they both represent the westernmost parts of the state.
On Summer Lee: there's always going to be a push from the aggressively moderate parts of the establishment to label some progressives as controversial, and then justify attempts to take them out due to being controversial. They haven't forgiven Lee's narrow primary victory over an establishment favorite in 2022. Probably made worse by her being behind in the initial vote, even though we all know it's only the final votes that matter people do make emotional reactions based on initial outcomes, reasonable or not.
Neal is part of the liberal establishment (Pelosi, Hoyer, etc.) and is slightly more conservative than McGovern on some viewpoints. He's also really old. I hate to bring up age because to me capability doesn't equal youth but the fact he's been in office for nearly 40 years adds to age being an issue.
Neal tends to join with leadership/establishment when they're doing something stupid. I've also never observed him actually pushing for something to be done. He's a warm body and reliable vote at best. Which we can do better than, even if it is in a less absurdly blue district than most of MA (D+8). Also maybe unfair but he has crazy eyes in every modern photo of him I've seen.
McGovern is still close to the establishment but is more willing to put his neck out there and take a stance on an issue or try doing things. There's a sense of authenticity to him that I do not see in Neal. He's also clearly to Neal's left. I dislike people staying around for decades, but McGovern is about as good as we can hope for out of someone so close to the establishment.
As an easy contrast on what I mean for not seeing Neal advocate for much of anything versus McGovern taking a stance, compare the "tenure" section of their respective wiki pages. Neal's could fit on a postcard; McGovern's is substantive and quite long. You don't have to agree with McGovern on everything to see that he's at least seriously advocating across multiple issues and taking his job as more than voting on legislation and accumulating power.
We are not allowed to discuss that here about the first topic.
Neal, I believe has been a big opponent of healthcare industry reform internally in the caucus and has taken a majority of his contributions from insurance PACs. He once tanked a bipartisan bill if my memory has been serving me right.
Nc-4: Nida Allam raised $200,000 in her first day, which is more than Val Foushee reported having for CoH last quarter. I’d say Allam stands a fair chance.
RE Jacobs, I truly don't understand why he's being kept around. He's no longer pulling weight in Nassau and on Long Island more broadly. Pat Ryan would be a good choice statewide, but you probably need someone from the downstate area. In a similar vein to Ryan, if Antonio Delgado didn't blow up his career on this primary challenge, I think he could've been a good option.
If I got to pick someone, I think I'd probably pick Zellnor Myrie because I think he's got a really bright future ahead of him. His mayoral run didn't go anywhere but I think generally people like him and respect him.
NC-04 - I’ve read that Foushee’s district was redrawn in a way that makes it even more favorable to Allam’s strongest constituencies—white progressives and immigrant communities. At the same time, Foushee was recently appointed by Jeffries to a tech-friendly AI panel alongside Gottheimer, which could open the door to heavy tech interest in the race instead of AIPAC like the last time. Allam, meanwhile, has consistently been a strong fundraiser and organizer and is likely to run a sharply anti-corporate campaign. That combination could make the race a coin toss once again. If elected, Allam would likely join the Squad.
WI-Sen: If Blue Dog Rebecca Cooke unseats Van Orden and overperforms once again which she likely will, she will garner national attention and will be a leading contender to unseat Ron Johnson. She seems to have higher ambitions since she has been trying hard to not alienate the left, was a Bernie delegate and appeared with him at Fighting Oligarchy rallies.
NY-4: Gottheimer will not be primaried, his district is very rich and moderate and moved relatively to the right in the NJ gubernatorial race and will probably not return to Biden margins. Progressives combined for only 30 percent of the vote in the primary and I don't see a more mainstream moderate Dem launching a primary challenge.
That seems unduly pessimistic, no? She only won by 10 points in 2020 and Mississippi residents surely have been hit hard by Trump's tariff policies and cuts to government services.
Indeed he was. Not only did Mike Espy lose to Cindy Hyde-Smith in the 2018 Senate runoff by 6%+ points, he lost to her in the 2020 Senate general election by a tad less than 10% points. Not bad considering MS is a red state.
Mike Espy also did in fact serve in the House although before Rep. Bennie Thompson took over due to Espy becoming the 1st Secretary of Agriculture under President Clinton back in 1993.
According to what I’ve read, Espy was able to win the white vote in some of his reelection campaigns to the House. He definitely knew what he was doing
And Espy was able to unseat GOP incumbent Webb Franklin by around 3.4% points back in 1986. Franklin is white. Quite an accomplishment for Espy considering President Reagan was in office at the time.
Currently, MS-02 is a D+11, which makes it quite blue although Rep. Bennie Thompson is also the only House Democrat in the state for obvious reasons. Certainly there’s been progress although if I’m not mistaken, MS-02 was redistricted at one point after Espy left the House.
Former Montana Senator Jon Tester is holding a virtual fundraiser for the Democrat in Elise Stefanik's open seat in NY-21.
He is a soybean and dairy farmer named Blake Gandebien from near the Canadian border.
The fundraiser is being hosted by the last Democrat to represent the North Country, Bill Owen's.
Presumably Tester is doing this to help elect another farmer to congress. Nice to see him still active. Maybe he could be a potential Ag Sec pick for a future Democrat President!
Stefanik won reelection last year with 62% of the vote but perhaps next year will be a little better if Gandebien is well funded.
KS-Gov - a short list of possibilities (off the top of my head) if Gov. Kelly and Rep. Davids choose against it:
Former State Sen. Barbara Bollier jumps to the top of the list in my head, she was a strong prospect in 2020. Her son Bobby, a former competitive swimmer and lawyer, might also mull over it.
State Senate Minority Leader Dinah Sykes has a similar profile to Bollier and seems like she might be interested in a higher office, too. Usha Reddi also ran in 2020 in the primary before dropping out and since the served one (appointed) term in the State Senate. Patrick Schmidt ran for house in 2022 and then won a seat in the State Senate in the last cycle, and it definitely seems like he might be interested in seeking higher office.
Gubernatorial candidates like Sens. Corson and Holscher could also still be possibilities, as might KDP chair Jeanna Repass (also Kansas SecState nominee in 2022) and Chris Mann (Kansas AG nominee in 2022 and declared candidate in 2026).
Did you mean Senate race? There’s no reason for Chris Mann to switch from the AG race where he might already be favored against the highly flawed Kobach to an uphill gubernatorial race. Especially when Laura Kelly already endorsed Corson. It looks like Corson is the party choice for Governor and Mann for AG. The only questions remaining in Kansas is 1.) redistricting and whether that drives Davids to run statewide if it succeeds and 2.) if Kelly herself can be persuaded to change her mind on a last-minute Senate run.
Confederacy is a crypto-antisemitic far right libertarian party while KKP is an openly neo-nazi party. The Polish youth are extreme. Razem is a democratic socialist party, Lewica is progressive and KO are centrists. PiS is social right, economic left.
The Polish left is structurally weak, for several reasons, including the country's experience with communism and the allergy to anything left-wing that experience produced in large majorities of those 50+ in Eastern Europe, and Eastern European populations at large, broadly speaking. This has translated into their children being much more conservative than the youth elsewhere in Europe. Combined with being the most religious and among the most culturally conservative countries on the continent, and this result is no surprise, though I would have though PiS would have more support.
It can't be worse than here I believe. I think if Fuentas created a party and we were a multi party proportional democracy, he could also get this many seats (44) among Gen Z right.
There haven't been 3 million Jews murdered in the U.S. Not yet, anyway. And then when the survivors came back, there were pogroms because the non-Jews who occupied their homes while they were working as slave laborers unto death didn't want to give that property back. Yes, there were also many non-Jewish Poles who worked heroically to save Jewish lives and not a few paid for that with their own lives, and the Nazis murdered a large number of Polish non-Jews and intended to wipe the Poles out if they had won the war, but you have to consider the context here.
I don't think a Nick Fuentes party would be able to elect 10% of the US House solely on the strength of Gen Z. If so then that generation would probably also elect a similar or larger number of hardcore socialists to the left of Bernie Sanders.
Nick Fuentes and the Groypers wouldn't need to form their own party, they're increasingly the rank and file of the next generation of Republicans who'll be calling the shots within the next 10 years.
One unfortunate long tail of Charlie Kirk's assassination is that Nick Fuentes by default has won the battle for the hearts and minds of Gen Z conservatives.
TX-15: The video speculates that Monica De La Cruz will have a fight against Bobby Pulido, and that the new map made her re-election uncertain, not certain. It happens to be the only Texas seat national Democrats are targeting.
National Democrats should also target the new San Antonio-based majority-Hispanic district that's about Trump +10. The Hispanic snapback to the Democrats has been bigger than that margin, and if Dems continue to do 13 points better than Harris like we did in TN-07, then this district has a clear chance at going Democratic.
For the first time since Obama, I can genuinely state that I believe Democrats have an election winning formula with either a moderate nominee OR a progressive one. Yes, we absolutely need to have these 2026 primary fights (and beyond to 2028 and so on) and yes the progressive or moderate candidates need to win the most primary voters, but when the general election comes, we can win with whatever lane of the party gets the nomination.
That’s what’s new and makes me feel genuinely excited to support Democrats, not just being against Trump and Republicans. There’s 2 successful formulas to beat them both and we’ve already seen these in action with differing campaigns based entirely on an affordability focus.
The first one is the normal one, the one Democrats have used over and over to win with moderate candidates over the years: by winning a majority of the voters who turnout to vote. Focusing on persuasion of those already voting to convince enough people to vote for them over a Republican. This is the tried and true method employed by Spanberger and Sherrill to great success.
The second one is new and hasn’t actually been tested in a general national election for a purple area yet. However, we’ve seen it work twice now, both in New York with Mamdani and TN-07 special with Aftyn Behn and that’s the progressive one. By inspiring the left and turning out people who don’t normally vote, to overwhelm the opposition with a mass of voters they didn’t expect to show up. This is the Trump method.
Some may say “well Behn lost and she didn’t run on being progressive in the campaign”, of which, both are true. However, she was and is a progressive, on her voting record and on her past statements. She said things that would have doomed prior Democrats.
The turnout in the special matched a midterm, our voters turned out in droves and the only thing that stopped an unexpected upset was the GOP going all in, from Trump, Johnson, conservative media and national organizations to save the seat for a fairly conventional unscarred non-loon Republican at the last minute. They won’t be able to do that in a general election.
So we get to pick and choose which to run with regardless of whoever gets the nomination. We can inspire our base or we can persuade a majority. That makes me even more confident in a wave for 2026 than I was for 2018. Democrats aren’t just anti-Trump now, they’re pro-affordability and that’s going to make a huge difference in the midterms /end
Yes, I would say that Behn didn't actually win and that a moderate with a fighting spirit would, all else equal, have a better, though still slim chance of winning that district.
There’s the argument though that a more moderate candidate wouldn’t have inspired our base in a low turnout special election and they’d probably lose by around the same or worse. The lower the turnout, the far greater the importance of getting your party base out. If they stay home, you aren’t winning, regardless of anything else.
I saw that in some blue precincts special election turnout rivalled or surpassed 2024. Would they have shown up for any Democrat? Or were they pulled to the polls because Behn is a progressive? That all said, I don’t know if this argument is the reality and I don’t entirely support this idea, but I’m not closed off to this being true and it’s the argument progressives make here.
I'm a socialist and I think that argument is usually wrong but could be right sometimes, like in the most recent New York City Mayoral election. But I do think people would have shown up in TN-07 for a moderate _with a fighting spirit_.
At this point in time with these political conditions, our base is motivated by pushing back against Trump and all Republicans. An individual candidate being slightly more moderate is not going to dampen turnout.
I've come to believe that since 2006, Dems have a much greater proportion of their voters, compared to Reps, that are people who are not actually enthusiastically buying the candidate, or the proposals, but voting against the horrendous person on the other side. In my opinion, I think many people who pulled the level for Spanberger and Sherill did so not because they were thrilled about any policy proposals, but because the alternative is just so terrible, nationally, and at the state level. Given that dynamic, I think 26 and 28 will be years where a much broader set of Dems will be palatable, just given the sheer monster on the other side, and the destruction being wrought. I think centrist/progressive tension will be the weakest it has been in cycles, which will result in broader success.
I’d go farther and say that the only reason we’ve remained competitive for so long in the Senate and in some gubernatorial races is because the GOP reliably nominates clowns for office. Dems need more than just “other guys are crazy” (which, obviously, they are).
Lately I've been giving some thought to "After-Trump" politics. If the next three years goes how we expect. How do we prevent an inevitable backslide when the electorate forgets about how poorly Republicans govern? Voters always want an alternative and I wonder if in Blue States/Red States there should be some sort of campaign to give rise to a Workers Party because people are going to look for an alternative and we just cannot allow Republicans to be that alternative anymore. It might be risky but it's better than swinging back and forth between Good Government Dems and Cynical Republicans.
It's more than "risky"; it's a division of the non-authoritarian vote. Please understand what that means. It's not like there are no previous examples.
Voters will 100% forget. That is all but guaranteed.
They forgot Trump's 1st term, they forgot Covid, they forgot Bush, they forgot the quagmires of Iraq and Afghanistan, they forgot the great recession. The last republican admins to end without extensive contemporary societal critique was Reagan and Bush Sr (who lost reelection anyway). They had their controversies but on a more typical scale (much as I think Reagan should have been more widely disliked, that's neither here nor there). That's nearly 40 years ago now. Voters don't care.
Voters forget as a matter of course. In a practical sense there's not much we can do about it. Relentless and better messaging would help but not solve the problem. The best we can do is never get complacent and run each national election like it's pivotal -- because it probable is.
If we accomplish all of our goals as a party and people actually start coming out ahead in life by working hard, there’s the possibility of Democratic control for more than 4 or 8 years. If we piecemeal making small progress it’s not going to be felt by the average voter. That was the problem with Biden’s signature legislation. No matter what we said or showed as proof, voters didn’t get much of an effect in their lives unless it was indirect.
We boosted lower income wealth by more than any president in decades. But because we didn’t go bigger, we lost both ways. Republicans were outraged and Democrats were meh on it. No voter felt it. But there’s been many times in history where 1 party gets the nod for more than 1 or 2 terms.
It’s not impossible to think it could theoretically be possible again (even if we’re far more polarized now) if our party leaders decide to go big enough in policy change to excite Democrats and persuade independents we understand the big changes needed in society, that our party truly does have their back to fight for them and make life better for them.
It’s up to our next nominee what route they want their presidency to go and I truly hope they make the right one. Regardless, as Michael said, a 3rd party is a terrible idea and enables MAGA to win by splitting the non-Republican vote. The only way that would work for us is if the 3rd party had fusion voting where two parties voters go to the same candidate.
It would, however, be a good idea (along the lines of your thinking) to have a party like workers family or democratic farm labour in any state that is red or purple, that combines with the Democratic vote.
I'd quibble a little with this "No voter felt it." They weren't conscious of feeling it, but when your income rises and your working conditions improve, you feel it. Otherwise, I agree entirely but think a more likely scenario is that even if the Democrats go big, they will in the short term be punished for it in the 2030 midterms. But that's getting way ahead of ourselves, because a Democratic trifecta in 2029 is unlikely.
A trifecta in 2028 is very possible and a better than 50/50 chance of one is also possible. If Democrats manage to win a majority in 2026 or come very close, they don’t need much to go right in 2028 to win a majority, because all of the very hard targets to flip are happening in the 2026 cycle.
Our path to a majority for the midterms is ME, NC and then some combo of 2/3 of these Trump +10-15 red states: AK, IA, OH, TX while holding all of our seats. In 2028 that path is way easier, as long as we hold all our current seats (no guarantee to be fair!) and pick up 2 Trump + 2 purple seats in 2026. We wouldn’t even need to win Ohio regardless of if Brown wins or loses in 2026 to have a majority.
We can either set ourselves up for a majority in 2028 or we win one in 2026 and the 2028 path is by far the most easy (even though it will be hard, it’s far easier then winning Trump +10 states). So I don’t really get the pessimism about 2028 especially after the disastrous Trump term voters will want to forget they ever voted for to happen.
I don’t get how you can say with certainty a trifecta is unlikely in 2028 without first knowing what happens in 2026. Do I think it’s unlikely if the seat counts stay where they are? Yes. Do I think it’s unlikely if we gain 2 or more seats in 2026? No.
Context is needed here, which is why I’m clearly not saying anything will happen, but what could and if it did, that would change everything for 2028 possible outcomes for the Senate.
Someone posted recently how retired AZ senator Sinema was working on behalf of a NY-based development group, Active Infrastructure, to build a 420K square foot AI data center with a campus with five smaller research-type buildings.
The proposal was denied 7-0 by the Chandler AZ City Council.
"please, please, please, confirm your party affiliation:
Are you still a Democrat?"
My response would be "fuck you", but instead, I'll go with "stop." The text is from justpac dot org (edited so as not to link and thereby promote the organization).
No idea but it is one of the Apple options. I sometimes do "stop" first but I have noticed that some people/orgs continue texting from a different number.
Hard watch. Doesn't deal with candidates but video is politically adjacent. Details the story of a person's experience with the healthcare system. Very moving, and should be discussed more in our politics.
Yeah, I’m with you on both. Randy Fine is one of the most vile politicians I’ve seen elected in recent years. I’m not sure he has anything besides hatred to define him.
Most surprising was the 14 point margin in the New Jersey Governor’s race. Mamdani was the most promising politician. I guess the Wisconsin Supreme Court race made me the most happy. Can’t really think of a least happy.
Hard for me to think through my answers to these as a lot of the year has become a blur for me. Trying my best anyway:
Surprising: that Iowa special election we won at the start of the year. Was in a deep, deep red state senate seat.
Happiest: NYC-mayor. Mamdani has impressed me afterwards with his skill at communication, but at the time I was happy to see someone as odious and horrible as Cuomo lose.
Future politicians: Zero idea. I couldn't begin to guess there. I think we'll see more of Spanberger after her term as governor, but with Warner and Kaine up there in age that's not exactly a bold prediction.
1. Surprising: the margins in both New Jersey and Georgia this year. I suspected Democrats would win both and that Sherrill might win by double digits, but I would never have guessed her winning by more than Murphy in 2017. Or Dems winning Georgia by more than 25 points. Honorable mention goes to James Malone for his spring win in a Trump +15 seat at a time when Dems were super down.
Least happy: honestly none? None of the specials we lost I ever expected to win. We won everything of note in November.
2. Happiest was Sherrill just to see how utterly humiliated those slobbering all over “Jack” were.
3. I think Spanberger and Sherrill are promising future Senators. At the lower level, maybe Nicole Cole in Virginia after she beat a 36-year incumbent in a Trump +4 seat. Promising statewide potential there.
Least favorite is rather easy: Trump, Andrew Johnson, Jefferson Davis, Andrew Jackson, George W. Bush. I'd include Robert E. Lee if he can be considered a politician.
Favorite? Abraham Lincoln, George Washington, FDR, Teddy Roosevelt. If judges can be included, Earl Warren, William O. Douglas. Thurgood Marshall. If civil rights leaders can be included, Dr. King and Malcolm X. And I'd seriously think about also including Robert F. Kennedy, the original and not his horrible son. And for all of these people, warts and all, and some of their shortcomings were severe.
RFK original is definitely one of my personal favorites.
His speech after MLK Jr was assassinated is impressive, and the city he gave it in (Indianapolis) was the one of the only major cities without riots that night. Maybe the only city? He prepared notes for his speech on the way to the location, not having time or advance notice to have a more typically prepared draft of what to say.
On the Democratic side, my least favorite: Fetterman.
I have been following him for over a decade. Such a massive transformation from what he sounded like and who he seemed to be as mayor of Braddock PA, and even while campaigning, to his actual voice and voting in the Senate. I though he had the potential to be a younger, meaner Bernie who could also suplex you, and would be a progressive attack dog, not whatever he's has become.
Ever since Elliot Spitzer more or less immediately bombed as Governor of New York, I don't really get attached to current politicians, or have an intense amount of "like" for any of them. Theodore Roosevelt is an endlessly fascinating figure. Trump is, of course, my least favorite.
Interesting piece of trivia I researched: of the 100 U.S. Senators, exactly half of them have faced either a primary or general for the Senate that was competitive (within 10 percent).
Sure, I’ll start. Hope someone at DSCC or that has Schumer’s ear sees this. Laura Kelly should be recruitment target number 1 for the next six months. Subtly. Have her ride her 60% approvals as long as she can and then announce her Senate run on June 1.
Former Rep. Mary Peltola first. While it could change, Laura Kelly has already said no.
Agreed. Peltola has signaled more interest, is more likely to win, and could serve longer should she win. That race becomes legitimately competitive with her running, whereas Laura Kelly would still be a long shot.
Not so sure it’s much a longshot anymore, at least compared to Alaska. They voted very closely together last year. An overperformance like Bredesen got in 2018 would be a narrow Kelly win.
As long as we get either Peltola or Kawasaki in Alaska, I’m good. Kelly is the only one that can win the Kansas seat.
Are we positive no-one else could possibly be the next Kay Hagan out of the Kansas Legislature or something? If Kelly won't run, someone else might win if things go amazingly haywire for the Republicans.
I suspect it’d take someone more prominent to do that in Kansas. Kelly is the only one with a real chance with her approval ratings and universal name recognition.
I understand, and the likelihood is that no Democrat can win that seat. Otherwise, no need for us to repeat our statements; I think we understand each other.
I think Alaska is a slightly better target when all the pros/cons are weighed but getting Kelly would be great and give us a shot at another seat. If not like Michael says below we should still try to get someone who can run a real race. I'm skeptical we can win a Trump + 16 state even with Kelly but we are not exactly drowning in great pickup opportunities anyway.
CO-Gov: Just pointing out Phil Weiser is also in favor of redistricting in response to the GOP's efforts. Leaning towards him in the primary as I have had good interactions the handful of times I have had to contact his office and Bennett should finish the Senate term vs. picking a successor.
https://coloradonewsline.com/briefs/weiser-supports-emergency-redistricting/
Alright, here's some more races I'm interested in, like I did the last two weekends.
- NC-04: Does Nida Allam have a chance? I've heard the current rep Valerie Foushee has moved to the left since taking office, and is a CPC member. Is that enough to survive a primary?
- MA-01: There's been little talk of this, but Rep. Richard Neal has a primary challenge from teacher Jeromie Whalen, who is running from the left. I don't think Whalen will win, but what might the margins be?
- PA-12: There was talk that Pittsburgh City Controller Rachel Heisler was interested in challenging Rep. Summer Lee from the center. Is this still a possibility? And given Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey's recent loss, plus progressives losing the Allegheny DA race and winning the Allegheny County Exec race by not great margins, should Lee/progressives be worried here?
- CA-22: Who might be the Dem here, Jasmeet Bains or Randy Villegas? And could either of them beat David Valadao?
- PA in general: Are we seeing improvement here, based on the Supreme Court retention races and the Bucks County flips? PA-01, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, and the state legislature will be interesting to watch.
- MN state legislature: Could we take it back? Will the Walz scandal affect us here?
- KS-Sen: Could outgoing Gov. Laura Kelly make a surprise late entry?
- CA-AG: If Bonta runs for Governor, who might be interested here? Politico noted some candidates (https://www.politico.com/newsletters/california-playbook/2025/12/11/the-shadow-campaign-for-attorney-general-kicks-into-gear-00686223 and https://www.politico.com/newsletters/california-playbook/2025/12/12/newsoms-star-turn-and-a-gop-health-care-headache-00688534) -- who might be favored if they ran?
- NJ-05: Might Josh Gottheimer get a primary challenge? If so, from who?
- WI-Sen, 2028: Might Ron Johnson retire? Who's our strongest candidate? And could Ben Wikler run?
- Not really a race, but NY Dem Chair: Will Jay Jacobs ever retire? What is it going to take to get rid of him? He is useless and keeps losing. We just lost Nassau County's races again even though Jacobs is from there. Hochul is the real brains behind NY's elections in my opinion. What does Jacobs bring to the party?
- CT-Gov: Does Josh Elliott have anything resembling a chance here? I'm not confident, but we'll see.
- Los Angeles Mayor: Karen Bass is probably fucked as mayor I think. Assuming this is true, who might be the next mayor? Are we at risk of Caruso winning? Could another candidate like Beutner win?
- Los Angeles City Council: The left made gains here recently. Will those gains continue, or will they reverse? I'll be interested in CD-01, with a very left-wing incumbent being challenged from the center, and CD-11, with the inverse situation of a centrist incumbent and left-wing challenger.
- AL-Gov: While I don't think Doug Jones will win, what might the margins be?
- NJ-11 special: Is Brendan Gill a shoe-in, or do Tahesha Way or Analilia Mejia have a shot?
- Chicago mayor: I've heard Brandon Johnson's popularity is going up. Is it enough to save him? If not, who is his leading replacement?
I think I'll stop here because I'm going to be busy tonight.
The Dems in the partisan PA court races all won districts 1. 7, 8, and 10. None were close.
There are also at least 20 state House districts in PA that Neuman and Tsai (the Democrats in the partisan court races) both won.
I wonder if we can get another credible Democrat to run in PA-16. In 2018, Ron DiNicola narrowed it to a very close 4 points and it's around the same partisan lean as TN-7 at R +11. Would be nice to see more Democratic presence up in Erie.
Is the district basically the same version that it was in 18?
Yes, except now it includes all of conservative Butler County and parts of Venango County, which is less conservative than Butler, but still very Republican. Erie County as well as the cities of New Castle and Hermitage are the only blue points in the district, generally speaking.
Yeah that district seems to have gone the way of the neighboring Mahoning Valley in Ohio. Dems have been lucky to have held up so comparatively well in Erie.
Erie is different than Youngstown both demographically and economically (more diversified economy, more educated, etc.).
Minor quibble: Hermitage typically votes red (albeit modestly so). The Democratic votes are in neighboring Sharon and Farrell.
Correct, although Hermitage actually voted for both Neuman and Tsai this year.
HD-7, which contains that whole area, went from Trump +17.6 last year to Tsai +2.6 this year. That's literally a 20-point swing to the left.
Interesting! (Fun fact: I grew up in Sharon, and my dad grew up in what is now Hermitage.)
DiNicola also came very close to defeating Rep Phil English in the district (then number 21) in 1996.
Back then it was a pretty Dem leaning district. Clinton won it twice by double digits and even Dukakis one it.
But it also has only elected Republicans to the House since 1976, with the exception of Kathy Dahlkemper for one term. Regarding the last democrat to win the district before her, After some newspaper called Democratic Congressman Joseph Vigorito “Jumping Joe”, his popularity dropped and he was defeated for reelection. Jumping Joe is apparently the worst thing you can call a Representative.
This information comes from the 1976 and 1982 versions of the almanac of American politics.
Ohio had a longtime Democratic statewide official called "Jumpin' Joe" Ferguson, who was state Auditor from 1937-52 and 1971-74, plus Treasurer from 1959-62.
But his one foray into federal level politics was a 1950 Senate race in which he lost to Robert Taft by a 58-42 landslide.
CA-Attorney General:
If Rob Bonta runs for Governor, SF City Attorney David Chiu sounds like an ideal choice. He’s served as SF Supervisor, CA State Assembly and as City Attorney is perfectly suitable to transition to the role as Attorney General.
Regarding the Los Angeles Mayoral Race:
Rick Caruso is the only candidate who has a realistic chance of unseating Karen Bass even while her image as Mayor was tarnished from the Palisades Fires. Otherwise, I see Bass narrowly winning re-election in 2026 considering Trump and ICE have done a lot of harm, especially with regards to the Hispanic residents living in LA.
WI-SEN 2028:
Ron Johnson is toast. If he runs for re-election, the political environment will be worse for him than in 2010, 2016 and 2022. His margins of re-election have shrunk in 2016 and 2022.
Unless Democrats have another screw up in 2028 like they did in 2022 with Mandela Barnes, Johnson is quite a vulnerable GOP incumbent Senator.
You're sure you know what the political environment will be in 2028? Are you also betting on the Kentucky Derby winner for that year now? Johnson just keeps winning, so being so sure he'll lose is foolish.
Yeah I’ve stopped betting against Ron Johnson long ago. I still blame Feingold for being asleep at the switch in 2010 and letting him win in the first place. An early Harry Reid style negative campaign out of the gate probably would have knocked Johnson out early in that race.
Feingold was always more of a natural policy wonk than a natural politician. But the wave hit Wisconsin so hard that year that he was probably doomed regardless.
The much bigger surprise IMO was 2016, where he looked poised to make a comeback until the very end.
Years ago, someone posted on Daily Kos that watching Wisconsin choose Johnson over Feingold (twice!) was like watching your mom divorce your dad so that she could date Carrot Top.
It did seem like the Rick Scott had to beg him to run again though so he could retire but like you said who knows this far out.
Winning by less than he did before in each of his Senate races is not a good sign no matter how you spin it. It means Johnson really does not have strong incumbency power.
He also ran against Russ Feingold twice in 2010 and 2016, an environment that did not favor Democrats very well. Mandela Barnes also shot himself in the foot in the Senate race but did better than Feingold. In all such elections, a Democrat was POTUS. This won’t be the case in 2028.
I am mainly making the assertion that assuming 2028 will be an unfavorable environment to the GOP on par with 2008, Johnson won’t be able to leverage it in his favor.
Put it this way - Johnson has been lucky to be elected to the Senate. The only way he will be able to lose his Senate seat is if the political environment and circumstances do not work in his favor.
Being "lucky" 3 times means that you did well.
So did Scott Walker, who also won re-election in 2010 and 2014 but lost re-election in 2018. All times he won by single digits.
Johnson also was not up for re-election in 2018.
Right. And if you wouldn't concede that Walker had some talent and ability to be able to win that many times, I'd beg to differ.
We of course don't know what the political environment of 2028 will be, but most likely it'll have an unpopular Republican president who can't run again--which was not true of 2010, 16, or 22.
I agree on "most likely," but only guardedly so and certainly not enough to be positive that a 3-term Republican senator would definitely lose his seat if he ran for a fourth term. He's such an inept candidate that he keeps winning!
The 2028 political environment is subject to change but it’s getting closer to what 2008 was like for the GOP at the time President Bush was still in office.
Of course, we still have the 2026 midterms to face but assuming they are going to be on par with 2006 or worse for the GOP, 2008 had a greater probability of really killing the party at the ballot box.
Right now, I am mainly going by what the current political environment is assuming the trajectory continues to stay the course and accelerate even more.
Barnes lost by what, a point?
Yep exactly one point actually.
Precisely!
And Johnson has a magic trick up his sleeve in 2028 while Trump is POTUS?
I think not!
Barnes losing by such a narrow margin was, to me, one of the big disappointments of that election year.
Tony Evers was running for re-election back in 2022 but as Governor, he would have likely been a stronger candidate against Ron Johnson than Mandela Barnes. Evers also unseated Scott Walker and knew how to run a strong machine of a campaign in order to accomplish this.
Unfortunately, Lt Governors don’t have as high profiles as Governors do. Senator Fetterman is an exception although he was just Mayor of Braddock for years and did not have any prior experience in PA state government (and of course, Dr Oz was a lame duck Senate candidate from the beginning who ran an inept campaign). If Barnes had already been Governor, things might have worked more in his favor back in 2022. Who knows.
NC-4: With Foushee's shift to the left, no, Allam does not stand a chance.
MA-1: Neal should easily secure another term. I don't imagine his challenger will come within 20 points. Neal could retire in 2028 and have an even 40 years in Congress.
PA-12: Lee shouldn't be worried, and she shouldn't even be worried if ideological PACs boost Heisler. If Omar can win in Minneapolis, Lee can win in Pittsburgh - and as someone who lives within two hours of Pittsburgh, it's not as liberal as a place like Minneapolis but Lee will still win easily.
CA-22: Bains not only seems to have the establishment backing, but should be the favorite to defeat Valadao, given that she represents a lot of his current district in the Assembly.
PA: I see PA-7 and PA-10 flipping by at least 4 points each, PA 8 flipping by a narrower margin, and Fitzpatrick finally having a real fight in PA-1 - perhaps below 5 points, but he'll win re-election.
KS: Kelly has been pretty adamant about her political career being over and given her advanced age and the climate of Kansas federally (no Democrat has been elected senator for some 90 years!!!) I think she'll stay out.
CA-AG: I can't read the article at the moment because the webpage archive service I use is down, but I'll come back and edit later.
NJ-05: I doubt Gottheimer will get a primary - his district is still relatively conservative, even with Sherill's gains last month.
WI-Sen: Johnson sure seems to enjoy his time as a senator, but 73 is a reasonable age to retire. I imagine a few of the failed gubernatorial candidates next year could be interested on both sides, as well as Wikler. Additionally, I think Josh Kaul could finally make a run for higher office rather than Attorney General. For Republicans, if Johnson retires, businessman Scott Mayer has already planned running, while I imagine perennial candidates like Eric Hovde and Tim Michels will try running if they lose the governor's race, too.
NY Dem chair: Jacobs is in his 70s - I'm sure he'll retire somewhat soon. I just fear that he'll be replaced with someone similar despite New York's extensive progressive bench.
CT-Gov: Lamont will easily win re-election. Elliott's campaign was DOA.
LA mayor: Bass's re-election depends on how many challengers she has. If it's one or two major challengers like Caruso or Beutner, she's toast, but if more jump in she could even win again.
AL-Gov: Probably around 15 for Tuberville. Tuberville won by 20 against Jones in 2020 so I'd say Jones can run up the margin by around 5.
NJ-11: I'd argue Tom Mallinowski has already made it competitive against Gill, while Way and Mejia are just filler candidates.
Chicago mayor: Considering the number of potential challengers he already has, Johnson should be fine going into 2027.
About KS-Senate: No Democrat will win either of those seats again until one does. Just like most other things in politics. The "impossible" eventually happens.
Why is Lamont not in more trouble after the highly disappointing moves he made in his current term as Governor?
About the NY Democratic Chair, Hochul is not that different from Cuomo, minus the sexual harassment and bullying. Remember, everyone, when she tried to put a terrible right-wing judge on the Court of Appeals, the highest court in the state, and had to be voted down by her own party's Legislature? Whenever Jacobs retires or dies, the governor gets to name his replacement, I think? Correct me if I'm wrong; I might be.
This may have been 2014 but if Greg Orman was unable to unseat Senator Pat Roberts then, the notion of any Democrat winning the Senate race is very improbable.
Democrats are more likely to continue winning statewide in state government elected office than in federal office in the state.
Sure it's improbable, but it'll happen eventually, it the U.S. continues to exist and have truly contested elections.
Well, if Laura Kelly was able to win two terms as Governor that is hope.
This is the same state that Bob Dole served as Senator for more than 20 years.
Yes, but the much more moderate Nancy Landon Kassebaum also served for a long time.
2014 was a year where Republicans gained 9 Senate seats and won governorships in Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts. It’s shocking Kansas was as close as it was in light of that. 2026 looks likely to be at least 10-15 points bluer than 2014.
I think the establishment in Chicago learned their lesson from 2019 and 2023 and will coalesce around one candidate, particularly someone who hasn't run for Mayor before. My guess is Ald. Bill Conway. They'll try, as much as they can, to avoid a run-off and get 50% in the first round. If they can't clear the field for that, they'll try to make sure their candidate gets something in the high 40s in the first round so their election seems inevitable. They hate Johnson and they really hate CTU.
If Johnson retires I think Steil would be the GOP’s favored pick to replace him.
Just what do people have against Summer Lee? I hope she smashes any opposition once again. About Richard Neal: That's interesting. I thought he was a good liberal Congressman. No? What's the left-wing objection to him?
The stuck around for forever but actually pretty good congressman from MA is McGovern. Might have confused the two because they've both been around for forever? And they both represent the westernmost parts of the state.
On Summer Lee: there's always going to be a push from the aggressively moderate parts of the establishment to label some progressives as controversial, and then justify attempts to take them out due to being controversial. They haven't forgiven Lee's narrow primary victory over an establishment favorite in 2022. Probably made worse by her being behind in the initial vote, even though we all know it's only the final votes that matter people do make emotional reactions based on initial outcomes, reasonable or not.
I could have easily confused those two Congressmen. So is there something wrong with Neal?
Neal is part of the liberal establishment (Pelosi, Hoyer, etc.) and is slightly more conservative than McGovern on some viewpoints. He's also really old. I hate to bring up age because to me capability doesn't equal youth but the fact he's been in office for nearly 40 years adds to age being an issue.
Neal tends to join with leadership/establishment when they're doing something stupid. I've also never observed him actually pushing for something to be done. He's a warm body and reliable vote at best. Which we can do better than, even if it is in a less absurdly blue district than most of MA (D+8). Also maybe unfair but he has crazy eyes in every modern photo of him I've seen.
McGovern is still close to the establishment but is more willing to put his neck out there and take a stance on an issue or try doing things. There's a sense of authenticity to him that I do not see in Neal. He's also clearly to Neal's left. I dislike people staying around for decades, but McGovern is about as good as we can hope for out of someone so close to the establishment.
As an easy contrast on what I mean for not seeing Neal advocate for much of anything versus McGovern taking a stance, compare the "tenure" section of their respective wiki pages. Neal's could fit on a postcard; McGovern's is substantive and quite long. You don't have to agree with McGovern on everything to see that he's at least seriously advocating across multiple issues and taking his job as more than voting on legislation and accumulating power.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Neal#Tenure
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_McGovern_(American_politician)#Tenure
We are not allowed to discuss that here about the first topic.
Neal, I believe has been a big opponent of healthcare industry reform internally in the caucus and has taken a majority of his contributions from insurance PACs. He once tanked a bipartisan bill if my memory has been serving me right.
OK. I guess I have to do my own reading off-site if I want to know more. Thanks.
Nc-4: Nida Allam raised $200,000 in her first day, which is more than Val Foushee reported having for CoH last quarter. I’d say Allam stands a fair chance.
https://x.com/AndrewSolender/status/1999536254619095541
As someone who lives in the district, I will probably vote for Allam in March and whichever Dem wins in November. I’m not too fussy.
RE Jacobs, I truly don't understand why he's being kept around. He's no longer pulling weight in Nassau and on Long Island more broadly. Pat Ryan would be a good choice statewide, but you probably need someone from the downstate area. In a similar vein to Ryan, if Antonio Delgado didn't blow up his career on this primary challenge, I think he could've been a good option.
If I got to pick someone, I think I'd probably pick Zellnor Myrie because I think he's got a really bright future ahead of him. His mayoral run didn't go anywhere but I think generally people like him and respect him.
NC-04 - I’ve read that Foushee’s district was redrawn in a way that makes it even more favorable to Allam’s strongest constituencies—white progressives and immigrant communities. At the same time, Foushee was recently appointed by Jeffries to a tech-friendly AI panel alongside Gottheimer, which could open the door to heavy tech interest in the race instead of AIPAC like the last time. Allam, meanwhile, has consistently been a strong fundraiser and organizer and is likely to run a sharply anti-corporate campaign. That combination could make the race a coin toss once again. If elected, Allam would likely join the Squad.
WI-Sen: If Blue Dog Rebecca Cooke unseats Van Orden and overperforms once again which she likely will, she will garner national attention and will be a leading contender to unseat Ron Johnson. She seems to have higher ambitions since she has been trying hard to not alienate the left, was a Bernie delegate and appeared with him at Fighting Oligarchy rallies.
NY-4: Gottheimer will not be primaried, his district is very rich and moderate and moved relatively to the right in the NJ gubernatorial race and will probably not return to Biden margins. Progressives combined for only 30 percent of the vote in the primary and I don't see a more mainstream moderate Dem launching a primary challenge.
I would be very surprised if no-one runs against Gottheimer in a primary. They are unlikely to win, but someone will run.
I don’t see Cooke running for Senate in 2028. I’d put Kaul and Godlewski ahead of her as top prospects. Also expect Ron Johnson to retire in 2028.
I could see Kaul running but Goldlewski hasn’t run in a competitive election and was appointed.
MS-SEN:
Senator Cindy-Hyde Smith is up for re-election.
The following Democratic Senate Candidates are running in the primary:
Albert Littell - https://allittellforsenate.org/
Priscilla Williams-Till - https://till4ussenate2026.com/
Scott Colom - https://scottcolom.com/
Colom will be the nominee and lose by 20
That seems unduly pessimistic, no? She only won by 10 points in 2020 and Mississippi residents surely have been hit hard by Trump's tariff policies and cuts to government services.
Espy was a pretty serious candidate.
Indeed he was. Not only did Mike Espy lose to Cindy Hyde-Smith in the 2018 Senate runoff by 6%+ points, he lost to her in the 2020 Senate general election by a tad less than 10% points. Not bad considering MS is a red state.
Mike Espy also did in fact serve in the House although before Rep. Bennie Thompson took over due to Espy becoming the 1st Secretary of Agriculture under President Clinton back in 1993.
According to what I’ve read, Espy was able to win the white vote in some of his reelection campaigns to the House. He definitely knew what he was doing
And Espy was able to unseat GOP incumbent Webb Franklin by around 3.4% points back in 1986. Franklin is white. Quite an accomplishment for Espy considering President Reagan was in office at the time.
Currently, MS-02 is a D+11, which makes it quite blue although Rep. Bennie Thompson is also the only House Democrat in the state for obvious reasons. Certainly there’s been progress although if I’m not mistaken, MS-02 was redistricted at one point after Espy left the House.
Maybe closer to 15
That's the spirit!
As long as Democrats in LA keep on improving on the margins, it’s all good to me!
Former Montana Senator Jon Tester is holding a virtual fundraiser for the Democrat in Elise Stefanik's open seat in NY-21.
He is a soybean and dairy farmer named Blake Gandebien from near the Canadian border.
The fundraiser is being hosted by the last Democrat to represent the North Country, Bill Owen's.
Presumably Tester is doing this to help elect another farmer to congress. Nice to see him still active. Maybe he could be a potential Ag Sec pick for a future Democrat President!
Stefanik won reelection last year with 62% of the vote but perhaps next year will be a little better if Gandebien is well funded.
https://x.com/i/status/1998890759999861218
KS-Gov - a short list of possibilities (off the top of my head) if Gov. Kelly and Rep. Davids choose against it:
Former State Sen. Barbara Bollier jumps to the top of the list in my head, she was a strong prospect in 2020. Her son Bobby, a former competitive swimmer and lawyer, might also mull over it.
State Senate Minority Leader Dinah Sykes has a similar profile to Bollier and seems like she might be interested in a higher office, too. Usha Reddi also ran in 2020 in the primary before dropping out and since the served one (appointed) term in the State Senate. Patrick Schmidt ran for house in 2022 and then won a seat in the State Senate in the last cycle, and it definitely seems like he might be interested in seeking higher office.
Gubernatorial candidates like Sens. Corson and Holscher could also still be possibilities, as might KDP chair Jeanna Repass (also Kansas SecState nominee in 2022) and Chris Mann (Kansas AG nominee in 2022 and declared candidate in 2026).
What are yall's thoughts?
Did you mean Senate race? There’s no reason for Chris Mann to switch from the AG race where he might already be favored against the highly flawed Kobach to an uphill gubernatorial race. Especially when Laura Kelly already endorsed Corson. It looks like Corson is the party choice for Governor and Mann for AG. The only questions remaining in Kansas is 1.) redistricting and whether that drives Davids to run statewide if it succeeds and 2.) if Kelly herself can be persuaded to change her mind on a last-minute Senate run.
This is what the Sejm would look like with these results (18-29 years old):
⚫️Konfederacja: 190
🟣Razem: 128
🔵PiS: 51
🟤KKP: 44
🟠KO: 30
🔴Lewica: 17
https://x.com/231elections/status/1999411132759703963
Confederacy is a crypto-antisemitic far right libertarian party while KKP is an openly neo-nazi party. The Polish youth are extreme. Razem is a democratic socialist party, Lewica is progressive and KO are centrists. PiS is social right, economic left.
The Polish left is structurally weak, for several reasons, including the country's experience with communism and the allergy to anything left-wing that experience produced in large majorities of those 50+ in Eastern Europe, and Eastern European populations at large, broadly speaking. This has translated into their children being much more conservative than the youth elsewhere in Europe. Combined with being the most religious and among the most culturally conservative countries on the continent, and this result is no surprise, though I would have though PiS would have more support.
Sad. Maybe this Jewish man with ancestors from Poland should stop thinking about visiting.
It can't be worse than here I believe. I think if Fuentas created a party and we were a multi party proportional democracy, he could also get this many seats (44) among Gen Z right.
God, that's depressing.
There haven't been 3 million Jews murdered in the U.S. Not yet, anyway. And then when the survivors came back, there were pogroms because the non-Jews who occupied their homes while they were working as slave laborers unto death didn't want to give that property back. Yes, there were also many non-Jewish Poles who worked heroically to save Jewish lives and not a few paid for that with their own lives, and the Nazis murdered a large number of Polish non-Jews and intended to wipe the Poles out if they had won the war, but you have to consider the context here.
I agree with you.
I don't think a Nick Fuentes party would be able to elect 10% of the US House solely on the strength of Gen Z. If so then that generation would probably also elect a similar or larger number of hardcore socialists to the left of Bernie Sanders.
"This is what the Sejm would look like with these results (18-29 years old):"
Only based on Gen Z.
Nick Fuentes and the Groypers wouldn't need to form their own party, they're increasingly the rank and file of the next generation of Republicans who'll be calling the shots within the next 10 years.
One unfortunate long tail of Charlie Kirk's assassination is that Nick Fuentes by default has won the battle for the hearts and minds of Gen Z conservatives.
Yeah...as Gen Z I know more people who align with Bernie Sanders than Nick Fuentes. I live in the deep-red state of West Virginia.
I still prefer their Donald T. over our Donald T. (Though I'm not particularly fond of either.)
Unless Gen Z mellows out it seems like every future election in a western democracy will be between far right nationalists and socialists.
Better the latter than the former, I'd argue.
I’m with you. I think it’s embarrassing for the moderate and mainstream political parties that their appeal is so weak with younger voters.
Doesn't seem like we'll do much mellowing out anytime soon. My generation has become radicalized in ways previous generations couldn't have been.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1L1XLV7MLKc
TX-15: The video speculates that Monica De La Cruz will have a fight against Bobby Pulido, and that the new map made her re-election uncertain, not certain. It happens to be the only Texas seat national Democrats are targeting.
National Democrats should also target the new San Antonio-based majority-Hispanic district that's about Trump +10. The Hispanic snapback to the Democrats has been bigger than that margin, and if Dems continue to do 13 points better than Harris like we did in TN-07, then this district has a clear chance at going Democratic.
General comment/discussion:
For the first time since Obama, I can genuinely state that I believe Democrats have an election winning formula with either a moderate nominee OR a progressive one. Yes, we absolutely need to have these 2026 primary fights (and beyond to 2028 and so on) and yes the progressive or moderate candidates need to win the most primary voters, but when the general election comes, we can win with whatever lane of the party gets the nomination.
That’s what’s new and makes me feel genuinely excited to support Democrats, not just being against Trump and Republicans. There’s 2 successful formulas to beat them both and we’ve already seen these in action with differing campaigns based entirely on an affordability focus.
The first one is the normal one, the one Democrats have used over and over to win with moderate candidates over the years: by winning a majority of the voters who turnout to vote. Focusing on persuasion of those already voting to convince enough people to vote for them over a Republican. This is the tried and true method employed by Spanberger and Sherrill to great success.
The second one is new and hasn’t actually been tested in a general national election for a purple area yet. However, we’ve seen it work twice now, both in New York with Mamdani and TN-07 special with Aftyn Behn and that’s the progressive one. By inspiring the left and turning out people who don’t normally vote, to overwhelm the opposition with a mass of voters they didn’t expect to show up. This is the Trump method.
Some may say “well Behn lost and she didn’t run on being progressive in the campaign”, of which, both are true. However, she was and is a progressive, on her voting record and on her past statements. She said things that would have doomed prior Democrats.
The turnout in the special matched a midterm, our voters turned out in droves and the only thing that stopped an unexpected upset was the GOP going all in, from Trump, Johnson, conservative media and national organizations to save the seat for a fairly conventional unscarred non-loon Republican at the last minute. They won’t be able to do that in a general election.
So we get to pick and choose which to run with regardless of whoever gets the nomination. We can inspire our base or we can persuade a majority. That makes me even more confident in a wave for 2026 than I was for 2018. Democrats aren’t just anti-Trump now, they’re pro-affordability and that’s going to make a huge difference in the midterms /end
Yes, I would say that Behn didn't actually win and that a moderate with a fighting spirit would, all else equal, have a better, though still slim chance of winning that district.
There’s the argument though that a more moderate candidate wouldn’t have inspired our base in a low turnout special election and they’d probably lose by around the same or worse. The lower the turnout, the far greater the importance of getting your party base out. If they stay home, you aren’t winning, regardless of anything else.
I saw that in some blue precincts special election turnout rivalled or surpassed 2024. Would they have shown up for any Democrat? Or were they pulled to the polls because Behn is a progressive? That all said, I don’t know if this argument is the reality and I don’t entirely support this idea, but I’m not closed off to this being true and it’s the argument progressives make here.
I'm a socialist and I think that argument is usually wrong but could be right sometimes, like in the most recent New York City Mayoral election. But I do think people would have shown up in TN-07 for a moderate _with a fighting spirit_.
At this point in time with these political conditions, our base is motivated by pushing back against Trump and all Republicans. An individual candidate being slightly more moderate is not going to dampen turnout.
I've come to believe that since 2006, Dems have a much greater proportion of their voters, compared to Reps, that are people who are not actually enthusiastically buying the candidate, or the proposals, but voting against the horrendous person on the other side. In my opinion, I think many people who pulled the level for Spanberger and Sherill did so not because they were thrilled about any policy proposals, but because the alternative is just so terrible, nationally, and at the state level. Given that dynamic, I think 26 and 28 will be years where a much broader set of Dems will be palatable, just given the sheer monster on the other side, and the destruction being wrought. I think centrist/progressive tension will be the weakest it has been in cycles, which will result in broader success.
I’d go farther and say that the only reason we’ve remained competitive for so long in the Senate and in some gubernatorial races is because the GOP reliably nominates clowns for office. Dems need more than just “other guys are crazy” (which, obviously, they are).
Lately I've been giving some thought to "After-Trump" politics. If the next three years goes how we expect. How do we prevent an inevitable backslide when the electorate forgets about how poorly Republicans govern? Voters always want an alternative and I wonder if in Blue States/Red States there should be some sort of campaign to give rise to a Workers Party because people are going to look for an alternative and we just cannot allow Republicans to be that alternative anymore. It might be risky but it's better than swinging back and forth between Good Government Dems and Cynical Republicans.
It's more than "risky"; it's a division of the non-authoritarian vote. Please understand what that means. It's not like there are no previous examples.
Voters will 100% forget. That is all but guaranteed.
They forgot Trump's 1st term, they forgot Covid, they forgot Bush, they forgot the quagmires of Iraq and Afghanistan, they forgot the great recession. The last republican admins to end without extensive contemporary societal critique was Reagan and Bush Sr (who lost reelection anyway). They had their controversies but on a more typical scale (much as I think Reagan should have been more widely disliked, that's neither here nor there). That's nearly 40 years ago now. Voters don't care.
Voters forget as a matter of course. In a practical sense there's not much we can do about it. Relentless and better messaging would help but not solve the problem. The best we can do is never get complacent and run each national election like it's pivotal -- because it probable is.
If we accomplish all of our goals as a party and people actually start coming out ahead in life by working hard, there’s the possibility of Democratic control for more than 4 or 8 years. If we piecemeal making small progress it’s not going to be felt by the average voter. That was the problem with Biden’s signature legislation. No matter what we said or showed as proof, voters didn’t get much of an effect in their lives unless it was indirect.
We boosted lower income wealth by more than any president in decades. But because we didn’t go bigger, we lost both ways. Republicans were outraged and Democrats were meh on it. No voter felt it. But there’s been many times in history where 1 party gets the nod for more than 1 or 2 terms.
It’s not impossible to think it could theoretically be possible again (even if we’re far more polarized now) if our party leaders decide to go big enough in policy change to excite Democrats and persuade independents we understand the big changes needed in society, that our party truly does have their back to fight for them and make life better for them.
It’s up to our next nominee what route they want their presidency to go and I truly hope they make the right one. Regardless, as Michael said, a 3rd party is a terrible idea and enables MAGA to win by splitting the non-Republican vote. The only way that would work for us is if the 3rd party had fusion voting where two parties voters go to the same candidate.
It would, however, be a good idea (along the lines of your thinking) to have a party like workers family or democratic farm labour in any state that is red or purple, that combines with the Democratic vote.
I'd quibble a little with this "No voter felt it." They weren't conscious of feeling it, but when your income rises and your working conditions improve, you feel it. Otherwise, I agree entirely but think a more likely scenario is that even if the Democrats go big, they will in the short term be punished for it in the 2030 midterms. But that's getting way ahead of ourselves, because a Democratic trifecta in 2029 is unlikely.
A trifecta in 2028 is very possible and a better than 50/50 chance of one is also possible. If Democrats manage to win a majority in 2026 or come very close, they don’t need much to go right in 2028 to win a majority, because all of the very hard targets to flip are happening in the 2026 cycle.
Our path to a majority for the midterms is ME, NC and then some combo of 2/3 of these Trump +10-15 red states: AK, IA, OH, TX while holding all of our seats. In 2028 that path is way easier, as long as we hold all our current seats (no guarantee to be fair!) and pick up 2 Trump + 2 purple seats in 2026. We wouldn’t even need to win Ohio regardless of if Brown wins or loses in 2026 to have a majority.
We can either set ourselves up for a majority in 2028 or we win one in 2026 and the 2028 path is by far the most easy (even though it will be hard, it’s far easier then winning Trump +10 states). So I don’t really get the pessimism about 2028 especially after the disastrous Trump term voters will want to forget they ever voted for to happen.
The Senate is very difficult to flip. Let's look at it soberly.
I don’t get how you can say with certainty a trifecta is unlikely in 2028 without first knowing what happens in 2026. Do I think it’s unlikely if the seat counts stay where they are? Yes. Do I think it’s unlikely if we gain 2 or more seats in 2026? No.
Context is needed here, which is why I’m clearly not saying anything will happen, but what could and if it did, that would change everything for 2028 possible outcomes for the Senate.
We agree to reassess after the 2026 elections, but looking at things now, it's a very difficult task.
Someone posted recently how retired AZ senator Sinema was working on behalf of a NY-based development group, Active Infrastructure, to build a 420K square foot AI data center with a campus with five smaller research-type buildings.
The proposal was denied 7-0 by the Chandler AZ City Council.
Do all of you get these idiotic texts?
"please, please, please, confirm your party affiliation:
Are you still a Democrat?"
My response would be "fuck you", but instead, I'll go with "stop." The text is from justpac dot org (edited so as not to link and thereby promote the organization).
I get them and click delete and report spam.
Does it work to report political texts as spam? A friend of mine said that it doesn't and that political texts are legally protected.
No idea but it is one of the Apple options. I sometimes do "stop" first but I have noticed that some people/orgs continue texting from a different number.
Yes, I got one of those today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCW67lcUEbk
Hard watch. Doesn't deal with candidates but video is politically adjacent. Details the story of a person's experience with the healthcare system. Very moving, and should be discussed more in our politics.
As the year 2025 comes to a close, I figured I’d ask some questions to look back on this year, politically.
- What was the most surprising election result this year to you?
- Which result were you happiest about? Least happy?
- Who are the most promising future politicians you saw elected this year?
Would be curious to see the responses.
Surprising, happy and promising: Zohran Mamdani
Least happy result: FL-6
Yeah, I’m with you on both. Randy Fine is one of the most vile politicians I’ve seen elected in recent years. I’m not sure he has anything besides hatred to define him.
My favorite election was the Wisconsin Supreme Court race because of how hard Elon fell on his face.
Most surprising was the 14 point margin in the New Jersey Governor’s race. Mamdani was the most promising politician. I guess the Wisconsin Supreme Court race made me the most happy. Can’t really think of a least happy.
- What was the most surprising election result this year to you?
Aftyn Behn getting as close as she did in TN-07.
- Which result were you happiest about? Least happy?
Happiest with the Wisconsin Supreme Court as it was the beginning of the end for Musk. Least happy about Rep. Randy Fine winning as he is atrocious.
- Who are the most promising future politicians you saw elected this year?
I don't have one at this time. Probably one of the 13 Virginia Delegates that won this year is the best answer but IDK which will be that one.
Hard for me to think through my answers to these as a lot of the year has become a blur for me. Trying my best anyway:
Surprising: that Iowa special election we won at the start of the year. Was in a deep, deep red state senate seat.
Happiest: NYC-mayor. Mamdani has impressed me afterwards with his skill at communication, but at the time I was happy to see someone as odious and horrible as Cuomo lose.
Future politicians: Zero idea. I couldn't begin to guess there. I think we'll see more of Spanberger after her term as governor, but with Warner and Kaine up there in age that's not exactly a bold prediction.
I’ll just answer based on statewide races.
1. Surprising: the margins in both New Jersey and Georgia this year. I suspected Democrats would win both and that Sherrill might win by double digits, but I would never have guessed her winning by more than Murphy in 2017. Or Dems winning Georgia by more than 25 points. Honorable mention goes to James Malone for his spring win in a Trump +15 seat at a time when Dems were super down.
Least happy: honestly none? None of the specials we lost I ever expected to win. We won everything of note in November.
2. Happiest was Sherrill just to see how utterly humiliated those slobbering all over “Jack” were.
3. I think Spanberger and Sherrill are promising future Senators. At the lower level, maybe Nicole Cole in Virginia after she beat a 36-year incumbent in a Trump +4 seat. Promising statewide potential there.
Unrelated to my other question, I’m curious about something else.
Who are your favorite, and least favorite, politicians in America? Could be past or present politicians, and for any reason at all.
Least favorite is rather easy: Trump, Andrew Johnson, Jefferson Davis, Andrew Jackson, George W. Bush. I'd include Robert E. Lee if he can be considered a politician.
Favorite? Abraham Lincoln, George Washington, FDR, Teddy Roosevelt. If judges can be included, Earl Warren, William O. Douglas. Thurgood Marshall. If civil rights leaders can be included, Dr. King and Malcolm X. And I'd seriously think about also including Robert F. Kennedy, the original and not his horrible son. And for all of these people, warts and all, and some of their shortcomings were severe.
RFK original is definitely one of my personal favorites.
His speech after MLK Jr was assassinated is impressive, and the city he gave it in (Indianapolis) was the one of the only major cities without riots that night. Maybe the only city? He prepared notes for his speech on the way to the location, not having time or advance notice to have a more typically prepared draft of what to say.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2kWIa8wSC0
That was uppermost in my mind when thinking of RFK.
Favorites: Robert LaFallotte Sr., William Jennings Bryan, FDR, RFK Sr., Bernie Sanders.
Least favorite: Too many to mention. With Trump far and away the worst. Followed by Joseph McCarthy and Nixon.
On the Democratic side, my least favorite: Fetterman.
I have been following him for over a decade. Such a massive transformation from what he sounded like and who he seemed to be as mayor of Braddock PA, and even while campaigning, to his actual voice and voting in the Senate. I though he had the potential to be a younger, meaner Bernie who could also suplex you, and would be a progressive attack dog, not whatever he's has become.
Ever since Elliot Spitzer more or less immediately bombed as Governor of New York, I don't really get attached to current politicians, or have an intense amount of "like" for any of them. Theodore Roosevelt is an endlessly fascinating figure. Trump is, of course, my least favorite.
Interesting piece of trivia I researched: of the 100 U.S. Senators, exactly half of them have faced either a primary or general for the Senate that was competitive (within 10 percent).