I’m back. I’ve come to the conclusion that I need to avoid engaging with anything that sets me off particularly emotionally. I’ll avoid, to the best of my ability, doing that. I hope posters here can forgive me for my more unhinged comments. I will also cease calling out specific posters - it is not civil and derails conversations. (For those here who noticed I was still liking posts, the break I went on was specifically from posting.)
Anyway, an interesting article I popped up in the New York Times that I wanted to share. Basically, they list the Dem incumbents most vulnerable to a primary.
Thoughts? Are the NY Times accurate in their assessments? Any of these that posters here don’t think are particularly vulnerable? Any not listed that posters here think could be vulnerable themselves?
Oh, and it's too early to tell, but I think Nila Devanath might be getting a bit of traction in VA-2. Not that it's a primary with a Democratic incumbent, but Elaine Luria is a former member of Congress.
They don’t appear to have officially announced either of these via press release, but it appears the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC has endorsed Mike McGuire in CA-01, and Matt Little in MN-02.
I avoid most news programs these days, so I don't really know if the story is being talked about, but I hope Democratic campaigns hammer Republicans over the arrest of the nun in South Texas by ICE. Lord knows if this were some far-right MAGA pastor we'd never hear the end of it.
The Downballot will be taking a short break for the Fourth of July. We'll be back in your inboxes on Tuesday. Have a wonderful holiday!
You too! No holiday here in Germany. It'll be the first time I miss July 4th fireworks in a while. I love to see the ones in New York!
I’m back. I’ve come to the conclusion that I need to avoid engaging with anything that sets me off particularly emotionally. I’ll avoid, to the best of my ability, doing that. I hope posters here can forgive me for my more unhinged comments. I will also cease calling out specific posters - it is not civil and derails conversations. (For those here who noticed I was still liking posts, the break I went on was specifically from posting.)
Anyway, an interesting article I popped up in the New York Times that I wanted to share. Basically, they list the Dem incumbents most vulnerable to a primary.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/us/politics/democratic-incumbents-progressive-primary-challengers.html
They are as follows:
- Shri Thanedar, MI-13
- Wesley Bell, MO-01
- Ed Case, HI-01
- John Larson, CT-01
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz, FL-20
- Stephen Lynch, MA-08
Thoughts? Are the NY Times accurate in their assessments? Any of these that posters here don’t think are particularly vulnerable? Any not listed that posters here think could be vulnerable themselves?
Welcome back.
-I think McKinney, Bronin and Manley will oust their respective incumbents, but Bush and Keohokalole will fall just short
-I disagree that Lynch will be vulnerable to Roath
-I'll add Jared Moskowitz v. Oliver Larkin and Greg Stanton v. Kai Newkirk, as well as Ed Markey v. Seth Moulton in the Senate
Oh, and it's too early to tell, but I think Nila Devanath might be getting a bit of traction in VA-2. Not that it's a primary with a Democratic incumbent, but Elaine Luria is a former member of Congress.
CA-01, MN-02:
https://weareprogressives.org/#endorsements
They don’t appear to have officially announced either of these via press release, but it appears the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC has endorsed Mike McGuire in CA-01, and Matt Little in MN-02.
TX-SOS: Current TX Secretary of State Jane Nelson had already said she was resigning on July 17. Since then it was rumored that Abbott would appoint far-right State Rep. Nate Schatzline to be her successor. Schatzline resigned yesterday to join Abbott's election integrity office (https://www.texastribune.org/2026/07/02/texas-nate-schatzline-appointed-greg-abbott-governors-office-election-adviser/)
The same day Schatzline resigned, a new rumor popped up that Nelson may not actually resign because she is reportedly "uncomfortable" with Schatzline as her successor (https://www.chron.com/news/article/texas-secretary-of-state-jane-nelson-22330005.php)
She should stay on as long as she can
I avoid most news programs these days, so I don't really know if the story is being talked about, but I hope Democratic campaigns hammer Republicans over the arrest of the nun in South Texas by ICE. Lord knows if this were some far-right MAGA pastor we'd never hear the end of it.
https://www.texastribune.org/2026/06/30/texas-mcallen-nun-ice-detention-sister-letty/
It gives Dems a perfect response when they're questioned about ICE.
It was talked about, but didn't make huge headlines. Just kind of came and went.