Platner has cancelled all of his upcoming town halls, and has reportedly been going through financial issues. I hope he drops out for the sake of the party.
We have until July 14th to draft a new candidate. Draft Troy Jackson! Who else could be in contention?
A lot in the state party would probably just want Janet Mills. Jackson would be great, though.
Attorney General Aaron Frey, state Sens. Cathy Breen and Rachel Talbot Ross and state Rep. Ryan Fecteau are other possibilities, though they all deferred to Mills when the nomination was open.
Being a big tent doesn't include someone who regurgitates Republican talking points and goes on Republican media to bash his party. To paraphrase LBJ, Fetterman is in the tent pissing in.
And Moskowitz does that too. He goes on Republican media and whines about his party just as Fetterman does. For God's sake, he calls himself a "DeSantis Democrat".
Moskowitz and Fetterman are the odd ones out from that group, though. The others realize they have no incentive to go on Republican media, like Paleo said, and bash the party they always vote with. Moskowitz and Fetterman do, and I'm sorry, but they're worse because of it. Get the fuck off of Fox News if you want to be a Democrat.
We're not saying that they should not go on Fox News, after all Pete Buttetieg did it so effectively. What we're saying is that they should not go on Fox News to only cause damage to the Democratic Party, which does nothing but further cement voters against us.
Not true, in my opinion. As a West Virginian, Joe Manchin was screwing us the same way Shelley Moore Capito and Jim Justice are now. The only difference was that "D" next to his name that everyone here seems to covet, which he dropped anyway.
As many in the party today like to say, it's not right versus left that divides us - it's top versus bottom. And the Manchin's, Capito's and Justices are all at the top. He protected his millions of dollars by voting against regulations to his coal company in the Senate. And Mylan, headed by his daughter, contributed to our shitty healthcare system through outrageous prices and little care for the actual health of consumers (the closure of the company also forced many jobs out of West Virginia, further weakening our economy).
You seriously think Manchin wasn't the best you could get in WV? Every single piece of legislation that passed during the Biden Administration got Manchin's vote. Which ones did Capito vote Aye for?
I will say that as ugly and bad as Manchin got, he didn't switch parties, at least while he was in the senate.
Maybe it's changed in modern politics, but I've noticed the actual party switchers in the past seemed far less bombastic and outspoken. Campbell had some heated disputes with the Colorado Democratic Party, but he wasn't some attention seeker. Specter's switch seemed more of a strategic due to the impending possibility of a tough Republican primary.
The culture of the senate has changed drastically, from more composed, slow, at times friendly among the 2 parties, and even impartial to now more bombastic, activist, and a pedestal for attention seekers like Ted Cruz, Manchin, Fetterman, and Sanders too, though Sanders still by far seems among the more polite people. Paxton and Platner may soon join that list.
By far the worst offender for me was Joe Lieberman, who went as far as to become an independent and worst of all, endorsed John McCain in the 2008 and spoke at the RNC convention that year. We will see if Fetterman chooses to pursue that route and destroy any remaining credibility he has left.
I agree with that, and I'm also pissed at Democrats who go on Fox to bash the Democratic Party. It's possible to have family members who piss you off, and I think that's the more reasonable position than "We can't tolerate Democratic politicians who go on Fox to bash the party" or "I don't give a damn what a Democrat represented an R+10 district does, as long as they vote for a Democrat for Speaker." I give a damn but still appreciate that they and not a Republican won.
It's not great to be ahead by 4? I think folks perhaps need to readjust their expectations when it comes to beating incumbents in swing districts even in a blue year
Considering Wisconsin's recent elections and the high fundraising numbers Cooke has put up, she should be doing better. And like I said, she's on the right track. The last poll only had her up by 2.
The Supreme Court elections have seen progressive candidates do substantially better compared to state and federal elections since 2020, Being ahead by 4 in a light red district is very good.
In 2010, I recall seeing numerous democratic incumbents barely trailing republican candidates in polls. Some people argued that the close polls meant democrats had a chance. We know how that turned out
A poll done over the 4th of July holiday should be taken with a huge dose of skepticism. Polling over a holiday period is a no-go with most reputable pollsters which I’m not sure “Wedgewood” is.
Trump underperformed what someone like Rubio or Kasich would've done in all three of his elections. Yes, electability isn't as simple as just picking the candidate who is as close to the center as possible. But it's also not a total mystery. A socialist in a swing state who cheers for New York sports teams would lose.
This is based on vibes and speculation only, but I think if the field consolidates behind Barnes, he would win the primary fairly comfortably (unlike McMorrow dropping out in MI, which I think will have a much more muted effect...)
Any of the candidates would be better than Francisca "abolish prisons and defund the racist police" Hong. If she is the nominee she could drag down the entire ticket.
I'm not sure I'd go as far as "sure loser", but she would certainly be our weakest candidate and there's no reason for us to take a chance on losing the race by nominating her.
Fantastic news! Hopefully this will help us recover from the damage the Reid Machine vs DSA battle did.
I suspect this may in part be due to the loss of tourism in Vegas obliterating the state economy. No international tourist on Earth wants to come here anymore (and frankly I don’t blame them, I wouldn’t if I were them) and domestic tourism is being battered by the shit economy, which takes tourism out of the question for a lot of Americans. Luckily, since Trump is responsible for both, our chances in Nevada can only be improve, I think.
Some of Vegas' woes are self inflicted. What was once considered a place where the everyman could afford an indulgent weekend for a reasonable price, everything has now been completely micro-monetized. Fees and charges for every aspect of every amenity, the disappearance of freebies, cheap buffets, comps and gratuities. Outrageous prices for parking, food, and attractions. Many places are quite dated, but prices keep rising. The Vegas of the 90s is long gone.
Places like Las Vegas and Miami have become ground zero for the gentrification and pricing out of pretty much everyone who is poorer than the upper middle class out of entertainment and sporting events, although those cities hosting a combined two out of the three Formula One races held in the United States inflates those cities' reputations in that regard to some extent.
Indeed. But they found more places and things to charge for individually, and that's the main problem. I'm surprised building elevators are still free at some of these places, and don't require some new "daily elevator pass for $15" or something... that's the kind of thing im talking about
That sounds like the same things that happen in every other city with huge tourism. In 1991, I just walked into the Duomo in Florence. Now, the only way you can do that without paying is to go to Mass, and even then, they rush you out at the end. In 1991, you could walk into the Baptistery in Siena for free and only had to put in coins if you wanted illumination. In 1994, you had to pay for entry. In 1998, you also had to pay for entry to the Duomo. Etc., etc. Perhaps they went too far in Las Vegas and incurred a backlash. If so, they'll have to dial it back.
This isn't correct, I was just in Florence in June. You need to pay to go up in the dome or the bell tower, but just to go inside the cathedral is free, you just have to wait in line.
In any case though, I would feel much better about paying for entry to a 500+ year-old architectural and artistic marvel that requires maintenance and protection than getting nickel-and-dimd in Las Vegas.
Nevada does seem like it would be ripe for a bigger than average swing (like Iowa but from a much more even baseline), with the combination of Trump/inflation driving away foreign and domestic tourists, the large latino population, and generally a more working class population where Trump has really seen his support erode... We'll see if it's enough to take down Lombardo. I haven't followed him closely but he seems to have been relatively noncontroversial, and Nevada does have a recent history of non-extreme Republican governors (Gibbons was the exception and was very unpopular, but 2010 was not the year for a flip, especially against a high-quality candidate like Sandoval...)
Agree that he's been relatively uncontroversial, but I think the environment is just too blue for him to hold on in a blue-tinged swing state this year. I suspect Ford wins this handily in the end, unless something changes dramatically with either the environment or the candidates before November.
Oh that’s really good. We did horribly last year in Nassau and Suffolk. This makes me feel better about Suozzi and Gillen - and maybe even a long shot at flipping NY-01 if we’re really lucky.
I would not be so sure to be honest. Long Island will always be Long Island. Plus there were rumors running around the other week that a House Democrat in a swing district was exploring switching parties due to Mamdani & DSA and the bets were all on it either being Suozzi, Moskowitz or Gottheimer. My money being on Suozzi.
It's possible. As a DSA member, though a very pragmatic one, I still don't understand why anyone thought challenging him was a good idea. I'm more bullish on DSA candidates winning battleground areas such as Wisconsin and Nevada but Palm Beach, Florida is the one area where nominating a DSA candidate would mean forfeiting the seat. Suozzi too I would give a pass. Gottheimer on the other hand is another story.
Northern Bergen County is also fairly moderate, someone to Gottheimer's left but still closer to generic Democrat could work, but I'm not sure someone well to the left of that is a great idea in a very country club-coded Harris +2 seat.
I agree. A Sherrill type can 100% win in that district but my main issue with Gottheimer is not so much his ideology but rather the way he goes about it. He does the same act that Suozzi, Golden & Perez do except for him it's less about the district he's in and more that that's just who he is.
I was going off a poll testing him against opponents. To be fair, it could have been a GOP poll trying (and probably failing) to convince him to switch parties.
There are some other possibilities, including Marie Glusenkamp Perez, Laura Gillen (although NY-4 is fairly Democratic-leaning for a swing district), and Henry Cuellar (especially Cuellar, as he was pardoned by Trump), and it's also possible that a departing House Democrat could switch parties out of spite (Jared Golden comes to mind in this regard). However, the three you mentioned are the most likely of the three to switch parties, especially Moskowitz.
if you've ever watched him go to town on the Republicans grilled on the House floor, I don't think anyone'd see him as flipping. He's very pro Israel and disappointing on other issues, yes. But I think that just makes him more fitted to that district? I can't see how he'd win as GOP, and I can't see him wanted to spite Dems more either.
Yes although all of her House elections where when she faced Joe Kent as a candidate in an open race and as an incumbent. However, Glusenkamp Perez got a nearly 4% margin of victory back in 2024, an improvement compared to 2022. That means she can hold onto her seat quite well if battle tested in November, 2028 and 2030.
I’m back. I’ve come to the conclusion that I need to avoid engaging with anything that sets me off particularly emotionally. I’ll avoid, to the best of my ability, doing that. I hope posters here can forgive me for my more unhinged comments. I will also cease calling out specific posters - it is not civil and derails conversations. (For those here who noticed I was still liking posts, the break I went on was specifically from posting.)
Anyway, an interesting article I popped up in the New York Times that I wanted to share. Basically, they list the Dem incumbents most vulnerable to a primary.
Thoughts? Are the NY Times accurate in their assessments? Any of these that posters here don’t think are particularly vulnerable? Any not listed that posters here think could be vulnerable themselves?
The Stanton and Newkirk race fascinates me. It got little attention until recently, and it’s getting more now. I don’t think Newkirk will win, but I could see a Hickenlooper-Gonzales situation where it’s close.
I'm not fond of Moskowitz at all, but I don't think a DSA candidate is viable in a older, wealthier, fairly Jewish district. The one primary poll that had Larkin losing 51-19 is not inspiring for his odds.
My guess is that there's a relatively deep bench of people slightly to his left (think Wasserman Schultz or Frankel) who can run should Moskowitz decide to switch. No clue if Book fits that mold.
Given that Lynch has been signing onto legislation like Block the Bombs or Abolish ICE, I think he's really scared.
Bush has a decent chance of ousting Bell due to the corruption regarding a car he bought with campaign money and gave to his broke best friend, bodyguards (now fired) assaulting anti-Israel Jewish women, lackluster response to a tornado, unpopularity of AIPAC, some wealthy suburbs being redistricted out, anti-incumbency, Bush's organic ground game and new Super PACs supporting Bush according to what some people based in STL told me.
Edit: Also, Bush voting against Biden’s IRA which Bell and AIPAC ran on in 2024 won't have the same effect since it got eviscerated by Trump.
Oh, and it's too early to tell, but I think Nila Devanath might be getting a bit of traction in VA-2. Not that it's a primary with a Democratic incumbent, but Elaine Luria is a former member of Congress.
Oooh I’m in VA-2 and would love anyone a little more progressive than Luria who seems like a centrist corporate democrat. Will have to take a deeper dive into Dr. Nila. I’m already annoyed there is no real primary challenger to Warner in the senate
Yes, the district is fairly conservative (Kiggans won by 4 last time) but a decent blue wave will take Kiggans out. If the nominee is Devanath, Kiggans will win handily. And people in VA-2 remember Luria's excellent service on the January 6th committee.
They don’t appear to have officially announced either of these via press release, but it appears the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC has endorsed Mike McGuire in CA-01, and Matt Little in MN-02.
MN-2 is a primary I am extremely concerned about (moreso than MN-Sen, even though that primary is about as true of a battle for the heart and soul of the Democratic Party as we'll get this cycle), as Matt Klein, who got busted for insider trading on a prediction market, winning the Democratic primary in MN-2 would probably hand the seat to the GOP, even if there's a decent Democratic wave.
If Little or Kaela Berg win the nomination, we should hold MN-2.
I disagree as far as this year goes. MN-2 is too blue for us to lose in this political environment. Longer term, I share your concern about candidate quality, though.
I avoid most news programs these days, so I don't really know if the story is being talked about, but I hope Democratic campaigns hammer Republicans over the arrest of the nun in South Texas by ICE. Lord knows if this were some far-right MAGA pastor we'd never hear the end of it.
Considering many Hispanic and Latino U.S. citizens are Catholic, an ad concept as what you're suggesting would certainly have resonance. 40% of TX residents are Hispanic.
An awful lot of lapsed Catholics and Catholic-educated non-Catholics out there, too. I’m willing to bet half the country has a positive memory of at least one nun or Catholic cleric, despite the church’s best efforts.
There's reasons not to feel patriotic, but there is also reasons to still have a lot of love for America. I don't think I'll see fireworks as I usually lay low on holidays, but I bet I'll still get FOMO after seeing people I know at the local park.
Patriotism wants our country to do better. There might be more flaws than usual to highlight at present, but I want us to do better and I know we can and will. We can be patriotic even — especially — while critical of the current administration.
To me, being able to critique your country is patriotism, as you’re showing not only that you want it to be a better place, but that you believe it can be, and aren’t just giving up and declaring it a lost cause.
Honestly aside from shows, I never cared for fireworks. But maybe that's because I hate obnoxiously loud and sudden noises. My dog like most dogs hated them too. I just nowadays hang out a bit then leave before sunset when the neighborhoods start exploding and put on some headphones and drown out the explosions.
There is a lot to be patriotic about but the fanfare of fireworks and obnoxious stuff like the hot dog eating contest have become increasingly tacky and crude, especially as the world burns and more people suffer amidst the corruption.
You wanna be patriotic? Help out your neighbors and community. And not least of all be informed and vote.
I used to go down to my local Catholic church in downtown LA every Wednesday for the homeless food ministry when I went to USC as an undergrad. They would make a bunch of baloney and turkey sandwiches and bring water bottles to feed the homeless. When we drove there, we went by the Staples Center (now going by the cringe name, Crypto.com Arena) and LA convention center. The contrast between the South Park District where the entertainment district is with its clean, safe and bright look and Skid Row just a few street blocks away is pretty stark. Much of the stores headed towards Skid Row are caged or shut down, you can notice the graffiti and litter, and there's basically a town of tents alongside the streets when you get to the heart of skid row. Because one of the local vendors always had leftover donuts, we also often brought leftover donuts, but almost none of the homeless would take them due to diabetes and other health problems. It wasn’t just the abject poverty, but also how broken and desperate the people were, many with visible physical and mental illness. They took basically anything we offered them, including the plastic bags used to hold the sandwiches and bottles. I really hope Skid Row and LA has improved reducing the poverty and I know there have been efforts made by Bass, but I still have my doubts.
So I have an interesting question for international posters here.
How did the rest of the world, assuming they were aware of it, react to Mamdani’s victory? Has there been any international attention paid to the rise of the left in US primaries? I know that local elections in some countries get international attention (such as the UK ones where Farage did frighteningly well) — does it work the other way around as well?
I know in Canada they are already trying to cast the new NDP leader Avi Lewis as a potential Mamdani-like figure, except he has no media presence since he doesn't have a seat in the House of Commons and his party has seen no real rise in the polls. For context, the aggregator 338Canada has the current average as 45 Liberals, 35 Conservative and 10 NDP, which translates to seat counts of 207/102/11.
Like their voter base, I think the NDP's image is too split between "labor union advocates" and "college-educated activists" to really break through outside of western city centers. Also, fighting with provincial affiliates seems like a bad strategy to me.
Same comment here, need to wait for a reporter or otherwise credible source. Washington Reporter is a rightwing site with 9000 followers.
Excellent
Internal, but great numbers. R+7 district. Good to pressure the R's everywhere.
Platner has cancelled all of his upcoming town halls, and has reportedly been going through financial issues. I hope he drops out for the sake of the party.
We have until July 14th to draft a new candidate. Draft Troy Jackson! Who else could be in contention?
A lot in the state party would probably just want Janet Mills. Jackson would be great, though.
Attorney General Aaron Frey, state Sens. Cathy Breen and Rachel Talbot Ross and state Rep. Ryan Fecteau are other possibilities, though they all deferred to Mills when the nomination was open.
I have no personal problem with Mills, but I think the backlash against her would be fierce. Jackson seems safer.
Absolutely! Let's go get Jackson!
We're going to want to wait for actual verified news here and not repost random rightwing twitter accounts.
Fair enough, sorry
It's real...NYT is reporting on it.
OH-15 is R+4 per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio's_15th_congressional_district, so this isn't an amazing result, though I realize incumbency usually adds to a candidate's vote totals.
Not as good as we've been seeing in many other constituencies.
Under the new map, it's actually slightly redder at R+5.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections#Ohio
Moskowitz is only marginally better than a Republican would be anyhow. But it's good that he has an early lead.
Petola's not in that group.
Being a big tent doesn't include someone who regurgitates Republican talking points and goes on Republican media to bash his party. To paraphrase LBJ, Fetterman is in the tent pissing in.
And Moskowitz does that too. He goes on Republican media and whines about his party just as Fetterman does. For God's sake, he calls himself a "DeSantis Democrat".
Moskowitz and Fetterman are the odd ones out from that group, though. The others realize they have no incentive to go on Republican media, like Paleo said, and bash the party they always vote with. Moskowitz and Fetterman do, and I'm sorry, but they're worse because of it. Get the fuck off of Fox News if you want to be a Democrat.
We're not saying that they should not go on Fox News, after all Pete Buttetieg did it so effectively. What we're saying is that they should not go on Fox News to only cause damage to the Democratic Party, which does nothing but further cement voters against us.
Totally disagree with going on Fox. And going on Fox and bashing your party is beyond the pale.
Thank you for saying this. It’s about time we start pushing back aggressively on these stupid litmus tests.
Not true, in my opinion. As a West Virginian, Joe Manchin was screwing us the same way Shelley Moore Capito and Jim Justice are now. The only difference was that "D" next to his name that everyone here seems to covet, which he dropped anyway.
As many in the party today like to say, it's not right versus left that divides us - it's top versus bottom. And the Manchin's, Capito's and Justices are all at the top. He protected his millions of dollars by voting against regulations to his coal company in the Senate. And Mylan, headed by his daughter, contributed to our shitty healthcare system through outrageous prices and little care for the actual health of consumers (the closure of the company also forced many jobs out of West Virginia, further weakening our economy).
You seriously think Manchin wasn't the best you could get in WV? Every single piece of legislation that passed during the Biden Administration got Manchin's vote. Which ones did Capito vote Aye for?
I will say that as ugly and bad as Manchin got, he didn't switch parties, at least while he was in the senate.
Maybe it's changed in modern politics, but I've noticed the actual party switchers in the past seemed far less bombastic and outspoken. Campbell had some heated disputes with the Colorado Democratic Party, but he wasn't some attention seeker. Specter's switch seemed more of a strategic due to the impending possibility of a tough Republican primary.
The culture of the senate has changed drastically, from more composed, slow, at times friendly among the 2 parties, and even impartial to now more bombastic, activist, and a pedestal for attention seekers like Ted Cruz, Manchin, Fetterman, and Sanders too, though Sanders still by far seems among the more polite people. Paxton and Platner may soon join that list.
By far the worst offender for me was Joe Lieberman, who went as far as to become an independent and worst of all, endorsed John McCain in the 2008 and spoke at the RNC convention that year. We will see if Fetterman chooses to pursue that route and destroy any remaining credibility he has left.
I wish I could like this comment about a million times...
Marginally? He'd be miles better than any republican
I agree with that, and I'm also pissed at Democrats who go on Fox to bash the Democratic Party. It's possible to have family members who piss you off, and I think that's the more reasonable position than "We can't tolerate Democratic politicians who go on Fox to bash the party" or "I don't give a damn what a Democrat represented an R+10 district does, as long as they vote for a Democrat for Speaker." I give a damn but still appreciate that they and not a Republican won.
Not great. But on the right track.
It's not great to be ahead by 4? I think folks perhaps need to readjust their expectations when it comes to beating incumbents in swing districts even in a blue year
Considering Wisconsin's recent elections and the high fundraising numbers Cooke has put up, she should be doing better. And like I said, she's on the right track. The last poll only had her up by 2.
The Supreme Court elections have seen progressive candidates do substantially better compared to state and federal elections since 2020, Being ahead by 4 in a light red district is very good.
In 2010, I recall seeing numerous democratic incumbents barely trailing republican candidates in polls. Some people argued that the close polls meant democrats had a chance. We know how that turned out
Only recently have seen this pollster. Knowing nothing about them.
A poll done over the 4th of July holiday should be taken with a huge dose of skepticism. Polling over a holiday period is a no-go with most reputable pollsters which I’m not sure “Wedgewood” is.
Francesca Hong is a sure loser in November. The Democratic party need to nuke her campaign ASAP.
Trump underperformed what someone like Rubio or Kasich would've done in all three of his elections. Yes, electability isn't as simple as just picking the candidate who is as close to the center as possible. But it's also not a total mystery. A socialist in a swing state who cheers for New York sports teams would lose.
This is based on vibes and speculation only, but I think if the field consolidates behind Barnes, he would win the primary fairly comfortably (unlike McMorrow dropping out in MI, which I think will have a much more muted effect...)
Any of the candidates would be better than Francisca "abolish prisons and defund the racist police" Hong. If she is the nominee she could drag down the entire ticket.
I'm not sure I'd go as far as "sure loser", but she would certainly be our weakest candidate and there's no reason for us to take a chance on losing the race by nominating her.
Fantastic news! Hopefully this will help us recover from the damage the Reid Machine vs DSA battle did.
I suspect this may in part be due to the loss of tourism in Vegas obliterating the state economy. No international tourist on Earth wants to come here anymore (and frankly I don’t blame them, I wouldn’t if I were them) and domestic tourism is being battered by the shit economy, which takes tourism out of the question for a lot of Americans. Luckily, since Trump is responsible for both, our chances in Nevada can only be improve, I think.
Some of Vegas' woes are self inflicted. What was once considered a place where the everyman could afford an indulgent weekend for a reasonable price, everything has now been completely micro-monetized. Fees and charges for every aspect of every amenity, the disappearance of freebies, cheap buffets, comps and gratuities. Outrageous prices for parking, food, and attractions. Many places are quite dated, but prices keep rising. The Vegas of the 90s is long gone.
Interesting. Sadly not surprising. It certainly doesn’t seem affordable anymore.
I used to love going to Vegas but honestly id rather go to PHX or SoCal at this point. Way less hassle and both way nicer
Based on what you’re describing, it seems that the COVID-19 pandemic really spiked up the prices in Vegas.
No wonder Steve Sisolak had a tough job running for re-election as Governor.
Places like Las Vegas and Miami have become ground zero for the gentrification and pricing out of pretty much everyone who is poorer than the upper middle class out of entertainment and sporting events, although those cities hosting a combined two out of the three Formula One races held in the United States inflates those cities' reputations in that regard to some extent.
The World Cup drives this point home too...
Those prices have to be partly due to increased costs, right?
Indeed. But they found more places and things to charge for individually, and that's the main problem. I'm surprised building elevators are still free at some of these places, and don't require some new "daily elevator pass for $15" or something... that's the kind of thing im talking about
That sounds like the same things that happen in every other city with huge tourism. In 1991, I just walked into the Duomo in Florence. Now, the only way you can do that without paying is to go to Mass, and even then, they rush you out at the end. In 1991, you could walk into the Baptistery in Siena for free and only had to put in coins if you wanted illumination. In 1994, you had to pay for entry. In 1998, you also had to pay for entry to the Duomo. Etc., etc. Perhaps they went too far in Las Vegas and incurred a backlash. If so, they'll have to dial it back.
at least in Europe they can (do) complain about an overabundance of tourists, to the point of local backlash. can't see that happening in Vegas.
This isn't correct, I was just in Florence in June. You need to pay to go up in the dome or the bell tower, but just to go inside the cathedral is free, you just have to wait in line.
In any case though, I would feel much better about paying for entry to a 500+ year-old architectural and artistic marvel that requires maintenance and protection than getting nickel-and-dimd in Las Vegas.
Nevada does seem like it would be ripe for a bigger than average swing (like Iowa but from a much more even baseline), with the combination of Trump/inflation driving away foreign and domestic tourists, the large latino population, and generally a more working class population where Trump has really seen his support erode... We'll see if it's enough to take down Lombardo. I haven't followed him closely but he seems to have been relatively noncontroversial, and Nevada does have a recent history of non-extreme Republican governors (Gibbons was the exception and was very unpopular, but 2010 was not the year for a flip, especially against a high-quality candidate like Sandoval...)
Agree that he's been relatively uncontroversial, but I think the environment is just too blue for him to hold on in a blue-tinged swing state this year. I suspect Ford wins this handily in the end, unless something changes dramatically with either the environment or the candidates before November.
Oh that’s really good. We did horribly last year in Nassau and Suffolk. This makes me feel better about Suozzi and Gillen - and maybe even a long shot at flipping NY-01 if we’re really lucky.
I would not be so sure to be honest. Long Island will always be Long Island. Plus there were rumors running around the other week that a House Democrat in a swing district was exploring switching parties due to Mamdani & DSA and the bets were all on it either being Suozzi, Moskowitz or Gottheimer. My money being on Suozzi.
That is true, although given the presence of a poll suggesting as such I strongly believe Moskowitz was the one considering.
It's possible. As a DSA member, though a very pragmatic one, I still don't understand why anyone thought challenging him was a good idea. I'm more bullish on DSA candidates winning battleground areas such as Wisconsin and Nevada but Palm Beach, Florida is the one area where nominating a DSA candidate would mean forfeiting the seat. Suozzi too I would give a pass. Gottheimer on the other hand is another story.
Northern Bergen County is also fairly moderate, someone to Gottheimer's left but still closer to generic Democrat could work, but I'm not sure someone well to the left of that is a great idea in a very country club-coded Harris +2 seat.
I agree. A Sherrill type can 100% win in that district but my main issue with Gottheimer is not so much his ideology but rather the way he goes about it. He does the same act that Suozzi, Golden & Perez do except for him it's less about the district he's in and more that that's just who he is.
It is not Moskowitz
Really? Moskowitz is a giant troll who often blisters Republicans in House hearings. Even if conservative, I can't see how he'd win on their platform.
I was going off a poll testing him against opponents. To be fair, it could have been a GOP poll trying (and probably failing) to convince him to switch parties.
There are some other possibilities, including Marie Glusenkamp Perez, Laura Gillen (although NY-4 is fairly Democratic-leaning for a swing district), and Henry Cuellar (especially Cuellar, as he was pardoned by Trump), and it's also possible that a departing House Democrat could switch parties out of spite (Jared Golden comes to mind in this regard). However, the three you mentioned are the most likely of the three to switch parties, especially Moskowitz.
I'm not that familiar with Moskowitz's politics. Did he vote to impeach Trump?
He was only elected in 2022, so he wouldn't have had a real chance.
He worked for Joe Lieberman's 2004 campaign. Ron DeSantis appointed him to his administration.
if you've ever watched him go to town on the Republicans grilled on the House floor, I don't think anyone'd see him as flipping. He's very pro Israel and disappointing on other issues, yes. But I think that just makes him more fitted to that district? I can't see how he'd win as GOP, and I can't see him wanted to spite Dems more either.
Doubtful Marie Glusenkamp Perez will join the GOP if her pro-choice votes are an indication of anything consistent with her voting record.
https://reproductivefreedomforall.org/lawmaker/marie-gluesenkamp-perez/
Also, why now? She has already survived multiple tough elections as a Democrat.
Yes although all of her House elections where when she faced Joe Kent as a candidate in an open race and as an incumbent. However, Glusenkamp Perez got a nearly 4% margin of victory back in 2024, an improvement compared to 2022. That means she can hold onto her seat quite well if battle tested in November, 2028 and 2030.
Why on earth would Jared Golden switch parties out of spite? Who would he be spiting?
The Downballot will be taking a short break for the Fourth of July. We'll be back in your inboxes on Tuesday. Have a wonderful holiday!
You too! No holiday here in Germany. It'll be the first time I miss July 4th fireworks in a while. I love to see the ones in New York!
I’m back. I’ve come to the conclusion that I need to avoid engaging with anything that sets me off particularly emotionally. I’ll avoid, to the best of my ability, doing that. I hope posters here can forgive me for my more unhinged comments. I will also cease calling out specific posters - it is not civil and derails conversations. (For those here who noticed I was still liking posts, the break I went on was specifically from posting.)
Anyway, an interesting article I popped up in the New York Times that I wanted to share. Basically, they list the Dem incumbents most vulnerable to a primary.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/us/politics/democratic-incumbents-progressive-primary-challengers.html
They are as follows:
- Shri Thanedar, MI-13
- Wesley Bell, MO-01
- Ed Case, HI-01
- John Larson, CT-01
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz, FL-20
- Stephen Lynch, MA-08
Thoughts? Are the NY Times accurate in their assessments? Any of these that posters here don’t think are particularly vulnerable? Any not listed that posters here think could be vulnerable themselves?
Welcome back.
-I think McKinney, Bronin and Manley will oust their respective incumbents, but Bush and Keohokalole will fall just short
-I disagree that Lynch will be vulnerable to Roath
-I'll add Jared Moskowitz v. Oliver Larkin and Greg Stanton v. Kai Newkirk, as well as Ed Markey v. Seth Moulton in the Senate
The Stanton and Newkirk race fascinates me. It got little attention until recently, and it’s getting more now. I don’t think Newkirk will win, but I could see a Hickenlooper-Gonzales situation where it’s close.
I'm not fond of Moskowitz at all, but I don't think a DSA candidate is viable in a older, wealthier, fairly Jewish district. The one primary poll that had Larkin losing 51-19 is not inspiring for his odds.
Didn’t Moskowitz threaten a party switch? If he does, who might we run against him in 2028? Lauren Book?
He didn't. There were rumors that he would, but the rumors never amounted to anything.
It could be that it's something he's considered, but the rumor itself isn't much to go by and we have no real reason to believe it is true.
My guess is that there's a relatively deep bench of people slightly to his left (think Wasserman Schultz or Frankel) who can run should Moskowitz decide to switch. No clue if Book fits that mold.
Given that Lynch has been signing onto legislation like Block the Bombs or Abolish ICE, I think he's really scared.
Bush has a decent chance of ousting Bell due to the corruption regarding a car he bought with campaign money and gave to his broke best friend, bodyguards (now fired) assaulting anti-Israel Jewish women, lackluster response to a tornado, unpopularity of AIPAC, some wealthy suburbs being redistricted out, anti-incumbency, Bush's organic ground game and new Super PACs supporting Bush according to what some people based in STL told me.
Edit: Also, Bush voting against Biden’s IRA which Bell and AIPAC ran on in 2024 won't have the same effect since it got eviscerated by Trump.
Oh, and it's too early to tell, but I think Nila Devanath might be getting a bit of traction in VA-2. Not that it's a primary with a Democratic incumbent, but Elaine Luria is a former member of Congress.
Oooh I’m in VA-2 and would love anyone a little more progressive than Luria who seems like a centrist corporate democrat. Will have to take a deeper dive into Dr. Nila. I’m already annoyed there is no real primary challenger to Warner in the senate
Would Devanath be likely to lose the general election, though?
Yes, the district is fairly conservative (Kiggans won by 4 last time) but a decent blue wave will take Kiggans out. If the nominee is Devanath, Kiggans will win handily. And people in VA-2 remember Luria's excellent service on the January 6th committee.
100% - nominating anyone besides Luria here (and particularly a DSA-style candidate) would be an own goal for sure.
CA-01, MN-02:
https://weareprogressives.org/#endorsements
They don’t appear to have officially announced either of these via press release, but it appears the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC has endorsed Mike McGuire in CA-01, and Matt Little in MN-02.
They've announced both.
Huh. Must’ve been on social media.
MN-2 is a primary I am extremely concerned about (moreso than MN-Sen, even though that primary is about as true of a battle for the heart and soul of the Democratic Party as we'll get this cycle), as Matt Klein, who got busted for insider trading on a prediction market, winning the Democratic primary in MN-2 would probably hand the seat to the GOP, even if there's a decent Democratic wave.
If Little or Kaela Berg win the nomination, we should hold MN-2.
I disagree as far as this year goes. MN-2 is too blue for us to lose in this political environment. Longer term, I share your concern about candidate quality, though.
TX-SOS: Current TX Secretary of State Jane Nelson had already said she was resigning on July 17. Since then it was rumored that Abbott would appoint far-right State Rep. Nate Schatzline to be her successor. Schatzline resigned yesterday to join Abbott's election integrity office (https://www.texastribune.org/2026/07/02/texas-nate-schatzline-appointed-greg-abbott-governors-office-election-adviser/)
The same day Schatzline resigned, a new rumor popped up that Nelson may not actually resign because she is reportedly "uncomfortable" with Schatzline as her successor (https://www.chron.com/news/article/texas-secretary-of-state-jane-nelson-22330005.php)
She should stay on as long as she can
I avoid most news programs these days, so I don't really know if the story is being talked about, but I hope Democratic campaigns hammer Republicans over the arrest of the nun in South Texas by ICE. Lord knows if this were some far-right MAGA pastor we'd never hear the end of it.
https://www.texastribune.org/2026/06/30/texas-mcallen-nun-ice-detention-sister-letty/
It gives Dems a perfect response when they're questioned about ICE.
It was talked about, but didn't make huge headlines. Just kind of came and went.
I think that happened because the House Rep there jumped on it immediately, so it never became a huge national story.
Talarico should certainly be able to hammer it statewide at least
Considering many Hispanic and Latino U.S. citizens are Catholic, an ad concept as what you're suggesting would certainly have resonance. 40% of TX residents are Hispanic.
An awful lot of lapsed Catholics and Catholic-educated non-Catholics out there, too. I’m willing to bet half the country has a positive memory of at least one nun or Catholic cleric, despite the church’s best efforts.
Happy Treason Against the Crown Day Eve, you rebellious colonists ;)
I’m not feeling very patriotic lately to be honest. Too much avoidable shit going on.
Still going to see fireworks tomorrow locally. I feel weird not doing it.
There's reasons not to feel patriotic, but there is also reasons to still have a lot of love for America. I don't think I'll see fireworks as I usually lay low on holidays, but I bet I'll still get FOMO after seeing people I know at the local park.
-Tuned into start of Canada Morocco match
-Hears not only America the Beautiful but also The Star Spangled Banner played before the anthems of the nations actually pmaying
-Ire raised
Patriotism wants our country to do better. There might be more flaws than usual to highlight at present, but I want us to do better and I know we can and will. We can be patriotic even — especially — while critical of the current administration.
100%! I refuse to let right wingers steal patriotism from us. WE are the ones to love this country and want it to be the best it can be.
To me, being able to critique your country is patriotism, as you’re showing not only that you want it to be a better place, but that you believe it can be, and aren’t just giving up and declaring it a lost cause.
Honestly aside from shows, I never cared for fireworks. But maybe that's because I hate obnoxiously loud and sudden noises. My dog like most dogs hated them too. I just nowadays hang out a bit then leave before sunset when the neighborhoods start exploding and put on some headphones and drown out the explosions.
There is a lot to be patriotic about but the fanfare of fireworks and obnoxious stuff like the hot dog eating contest have become increasingly tacky and crude, especially as the world burns and more people suffer amidst the corruption.
You wanna be patriotic? Help out your neighbors and community. And not least of all be informed and vote.
The fireworks are more for someone else I’m with who wants to do them. I’d feel bad if I told them no.
Incidentally, I’m doing new member orientation this week for an anti poverty nonprofit. I intend to volunteer there.
I used to go down to my local Catholic church in downtown LA every Wednesday for the homeless food ministry when I went to USC as an undergrad. They would make a bunch of baloney and turkey sandwiches and bring water bottles to feed the homeless. When we drove there, we went by the Staples Center (now going by the cringe name, Crypto.com Arena) and LA convention center. The contrast between the South Park District where the entertainment district is with its clean, safe and bright look and Skid Row just a few street blocks away is pretty stark. Much of the stores headed towards Skid Row are caged or shut down, you can notice the graffiti and litter, and there's basically a town of tents alongside the streets when you get to the heart of skid row. Because one of the local vendors always had leftover donuts, we also often brought leftover donuts, but almost none of the homeless would take them due to diabetes and other health problems. It wasn’t just the abject poverty, but also how broken and desperate the people were, many with visible physical and mental illness. They took basically anything we offered them, including the plastic bags used to hold the sandwiches and bottles. I really hope Skid Row and LA has improved reducing the poverty and I know there have been efforts made by Bass, but I still have my doubts.
I feel it's past time to replace them with pretty laser shows. Hate the noise, hate the smoke.
Always a good quote to take to heart on this day
"A true patriot is a lover of his country who rebukes and does not excuse its sins" - Fredrick Douglass.
So I have an interesting question for international posters here.
How did the rest of the world, assuming they were aware of it, react to Mamdani’s victory? Has there been any international attention paid to the rise of the left in US primaries? I know that local elections in some countries get international attention (such as the UK ones where Farage did frighteningly well) — does it work the other way around as well?
I know in Canada they are already trying to cast the new NDP leader Avi Lewis as a potential Mamdani-like figure, except he has no media presence since he doesn't have a seat in the House of Commons and his party has seen no real rise in the polls. For context, the aggregator 338Canada has the current average as 45 Liberals, 35 Conservative and 10 NDP, which translates to seat counts of 207/102/11.
Like their voter base, I think the NDP's image is too split between "labor union advocates" and "college-educated activists" to really break through outside of western city centers. Also, fighting with provincial affiliates seems like a bad strategy to me.
“Bad strategy” and “NDP” are synonyms outside of the brief era of Jack Layton
God, he would've been such a good Prime Minister.
I had a hunch that Avi Lewis would not be the solution to the NDP’s ailments
We get like one news article per outlet on the primaries in the U.S.
Where is this?
The UK
I don't think he gets a bunch of mainstream coverage, but more left-leaning outlets certainly know about him. The leftist newspaper I read just had this article on his primary endorsements: https://taz.de/Demokratische-Vorwahlen-in-New-York/!6190193&s=mamdani/