I agree with most of your sentiment, but Biden really did try to change a lot and was stymied by the unified opposition of the Republicans and needing to depend on Manchin and Sinema.
I for one don’t think a former head of the Sunrise Movement which advocates for ending all fossil fuels will play well in a district with auto workers making gas powered vehicles. National Dems probably remember how Kara Eastman and Jamie McLeod Skinner blew their races because they weren’t good fits. Seems reasonable to have doubts about Lawrence.
Democrats couldn't have gotten a better Senate candidate to run up against in this open race besides Ashley Hinson.
I sensed Hinson's phoniness right at her campaign announcement rally. Everything was calculated in her speech just to make her sound like she's a follower and firm believer of Trump.
I suppose at this point it may be best said that Abdul El-Sayed may be better able to make the case for his candidacy than Haley Stevens as he offers more of a genuine drive to want to serve. That may be what's driving his campaign as opposed to the electability thing, which is something that Stevens doesn't seem to be making the case well even though she was recruited by Chuck Schumer to run.
On the other hand, Stevens was the Chief of Staff for the auto rescue President Obama pushed to save the auto industry during the Great Recession. This was years before she ran for Congress.
To be fair, it’s also before they have run attack ads against Stevens, too. It’s not unreasonable to expect him to have more vulnerabilities there. But it isn’t confirmed, nor is the baseline attacks on A but not on B.
I think the pleasant surprise in those polls is that low information voters are not voting against El-Sayed just because he is of Middle Eastern descent. However, he still will be attacked for being too far left and that issue is yet to be determined by the electorate.
Democrats had control of Congress from 2009-2010 when they were able to pass things to bail out the economy. If Republicans were in control, they would have passed nothing and blamed it all on Obama (and would have gotten away with it).
Right. On day 1 Mitch McConnell announced it was the mission of the Rs to make Obama a one-term President. The tea party got started because the Ds elected a Black man and then passed health insurance reform. We'd have had meaningful climate change legislation too if Obama had been more competent/experienced in his 1st 2 years.
That said, returning to progressive, inspiring candidates like Obama, who can expand the electorate ( he won Indiana after all), and who aren't whack jobs like Sharon Angle or Todd Akin, or so personally damaged like Platner, does seem like a winning combination. But we ought to be able to do better than the tea party, because the 10% swing and the next 10% on the center left do have limits and that 20% outnumbers new voters. And we know what the tea party did wrong. Ex: avoiding candidates who say/believe the left wing version of crazy stuff like "I don't believe in marital rape" or whatever Akin said. To which "Defund the police" and "Abolish ICE", apparently standing up for a mass shooter, and actually being a rapist qualify. (I do think ICE needs massive reforms that would make it unrecognizable to today's version, but Abolish Ice=Open Border as a slogan.)
The minute Republicans had that meeting prior to Obama’s inauguration where they promised to block everything and anything Obama wanted passed, the strategy of Dems should have been to completely cut Republicans out of the process on everything starting with the stimulus package and instead used budget reconciliation to pass a bigger more effective package with a simple majority.
And if were Obama or Biden I would have brought this up to one of those Republicans the next time I saw them. “Ok, it sounds like you’re gonna block everything we propose?”. Just to put them on notice that they knew what the Republicans were doing.
ACA had a lot of regulations that were necessary for it to work as planned that probably wouldn't have passed through reconciliation. Even if the Senate parliamentarian were generous regarding the budget stuff, it couldn't have passed through reconciliation into anything similar to what became law and whatever might have passed that way would obviously have been more vulnerable to repeal later through the same process.
Similarly, I think anyone who believes we can reconciliate our way to full Medicare For All or something similar is only fooling themselves.
I think it's really important to abolish the entire Homeland Security nonsense pushed through by G.W, Bush after his negligence resulted in the 9/11/01 atrocities being committed instead of prevented. However, it might be best not to campaign on that in races in which that could be a losing message.
Right. And the fact that countries around the world, namely in Europe, are considerably more civilized than they were in the 1930’s, the need for a more militaristic government is pointless.
I mostly agree, but I don't think "Abolish ICE" has political issues as things stand. ICE is not well liked and the rhetorical linking of it to open borders has not occurred as best I can tell. To the extent that it may have issues it's in a completely different strata than the defund slogans.
I’m in DC, I’m heading Boston, Buffalo, Niagara Falls, Toronto, Detroit, Kalamazoo, Chicago, Glacier National Park, Seattle, Oakland/Berkeley/San Francisco, LA, Flagstaff and Sedona, Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Chicago again, New Orleans, Charlotte, Hendersonville, and finally back to DC.
I went in one going the other way 10 years ago during the Cubs run to the WS. I opted to stay in Chicago through the end of the WS and while I did t get to make it to Boston it was an incredible trip! Enjoy!
You'll probably be going by the Emeryville Amtrak Station if going through Berkeley. Amtrak does stop through Berkeley but it's Emeryville that has a real station.
Is anyone polling the Graham-Andrews race in South Carolina? Also, District 5? That’s Norman’s old seat. It’s open for the first time in a while. There’s a lot of growth in the Upstate. Voters are motivated by the usual things, plus redistricting and data centers. Big time.
RIP Graham. I didn’t like him and he was a total hypocrite on many things, but I still feel sorry and sad for his loss. I hope his sister and other family members are okay.
…Huh. Our Revolution is endorsing Molly Gray for Lt Governor. A strange endorsement for a progressive group to make, given that Gray was Becca Balint’s centrist opponent in 2022.
Has Gray suddenly tacked to the left? Is this just a strategic move to help get the seat back from the GOP?
I did not expect her to run a progressive campaign, especially since the last Dem LG, David Zuckerman, who lost (and was controversial), was a progressive.
Wasn’t the issue with Zuckerman more that he was a quack on vaccines? I don’t think being a progressive was the issue, this is the state that routinely sends Bernie Sanders to the Senate. If Gray has tacked left on these issues, good for her.
Universal healthcare is generally considered a left wing position in general, as far as I know. Affordable housing isn’t left specific but is a very popular position on the left. At least as far as I know.
How many Dems running this cycle or last have been against some version of universal primary care? Was Dan Goldman against it? Or de Gette?
I guess my bigger point is that you should be thrilled, because if the bullets you posted from Gray's campaign are solid progressive to you, then the overwhelming majority of Dems will be aligned with you, even in SC if you ever decide to move here. 😁
Against universal healthcare but against a public healthcare option besides Medicare? It may be different in terms of how the proposal for change in the healthcare system may be.
Pete Buttigeg was interviewed by Dr. Mike on how getting a legitimate public healthcare option makes it so there's healthier competition with private healthcare insurance in place.
One thing I’ll say about Cait Conley, the Dem nominee in my seat, she is very charismatic. I met her at a local town event and she has a lot of energy and just seems like a really nice person to boot. A fantastic contrast to Mike Lawler, who has a critical mass of what can only be described as the opposite of charisma, and just seems like an unpleasant asshole to boot. To say nothing of his atrocious voting record and nasty habit of removing people from his town halls.
Anyway, if anyone wants to pitch in to her campaign, here’s her ActBlue:
I hope MI Rs lose the state House after the snide remark the House Majority Speaker made about Whitmer vetoing all nine bills the state House withheld from her.
That’s all they have. Snide remarks and mindless cruelty. Imagine if they had to run on their actual policies and record — what has the GOP actually gotten done of value since Trump won?
Hopefully voters will reject this garbage in November, yes.
I think there’s a good chance MI Ds will regain a trifecta. And then they need to be petty and strip Hall of his committee assignments. Maybe give him a basement office like NC Rs did with one Democratic legislator.
During the lame duck session in 2024, while Dems still controlled the state House and Senate in MI, they passed nine bills. Then in January 2025 when the R House Speaker took over, he refused to transfer the passed bills to the governor's desk.
According to the NYT article from yesterday he had less than $100,000 in the bank. I would like to know where a lot of that money went because Maine should be a cheap state to advertise in unless you're flooding NESN and World Cup games with ads.
He was running ads on NESN during Red Sox games (which is probably the most expensive ad buy in New England except for an NFL game on the Boston over-the-air stations).
If I recall correctly, no part of Maine is in the Boston TV market, with the state split between the Portland-Augusta, Bangor, and Presque Isle DMAs. Presque Isle is a very small DMA (Aroostook County), relying on Bangor for an ABC affiliate and only having two commercial TV stations (only one of which is a full-power station). Portland-Augusta also covers a couple of counties in northern New Hampshire that are too far away from Massachusetts to be covered by the Boston stations.
Troy Jackson seems like he's in the driver seats for this convention but I think one bad oppo dump would easily imperil his candidacy among delegates who are a lot more engaged than regular voters. We will see if Jackson survives whatever extensive vetting that takes place over the next few weeks.
JDV landed in Kentucky yesterday. Is the Kentucky GOP ready to announce Mitch's passing and set a replacement candidate for a special election? Additionally, McConnell's home is undergoing a strangely timed refurbishment (ie new carpet and flooring).
There was a poll that had the Republican ahead here. This is happened in the past here and the Dem won, but I guess this warrants moving it out of safe.
2022 felt like the perfect storm for a republican to win with an independent former dem splitting the non-republican vote, but they still couldn't do it. I doubt they get any closer this time.
Agreed. Will Kotek underperform? Most likely. Is there any shot at all that she loses? Not in a political environment where Georgia and Ohio’s governors mansions might flip
Well it looks like the mudslinging has started. Apparently Will Lawrence, the progressive running here, once said black political leaders “defang the white left”. Lawrence says he regrets such statements.
God help us if any of the other candidates have shit come out. Is vetting that hard?
Also, I think folks have gotten real over their skis on the buzzword of the week with vetting. An offhand, ill-placed comment is generally not something people think about when folks who work in politics talk about vetting.
And of course he picked up endorsements from Bernie and all his groups. They keep repeating the same mistakes by lining up behind these people because they say the right things while doing no vetting.
Well if nothing else, hopefully lessons will be learned in 2028. I saw progressive Kai Newkirk in AZ already lost an endorsement after some concerning info got dug up.
What pisses me off is that now all this shit coming out is going to be used to tar and feather the left, and will be used as justification for interference in (potentially safe, and not just swing) primaries. I’m already seeing people roping DAC and Melat Kiros into discussions of swing seat flawed candidates, despite the two being in safe Dem seats. (Apparently “they will be used against us!” Just wait until they say that about all progressives, and not just DAC types.) I cannot describe how angry I am at Bernie and the other progressives for all this. We’re going to be turned into a party pariah because of the failure to do vetting.
Sadly I think these candidates losing general elections is the only thing that is going to get these groups to seriously reflect on what their doing. If these weren't must win seats I'd be content with letting them touch the stove to learn but with the gerrymandering wars Dems don't have alot of margin for error right now.
DAC was a bad choice IMO (not that Espaillat was anything great) and I didn't see any particularly good reason to dump DeGette. But the idea that swing voters anywhere else will vote Republican because of them is ridiculous.
However, I can't complain about interference in primaries if it helps ensure that we nominate candidates who can win the general election and keep out those who could lose due to personal or political reasons, regardless of how loudly they repeat progressive buzzwords and talking points.
Lawrence has two primary opponents, both of whom have national security and/or foreign policy backgrounds, and they may split the moderate vote and allow Lawrence to win the primary with a plurality.
Seemingly. We may have reached a point where it really is too hard to tell at first glance.
If we have, that’s scary. Can you imagine Russia/China/Iran/whoever doing propaganda with this kind of AI?
Why do you think they haven't already?
Wouldn’t surprise me if they already are. Even scarier.
Unfortunately, that’s the world we live in.
😒
It would actually be more effective for them to just not spend at this point known
I agree with most of your sentiment, but Biden really did try to change a lot and was stymied by the unified opposition of the Republicans and needing to depend on Manchin and Sinema.
I for one don’t think a former head of the Sunrise Movement which advocates for ending all fossil fuels will play well in a district with auto workers making gas powered vehicles. National Dems probably remember how Kara Eastman and Jamie McLeod Skinner blew their races because they weren’t good fits. Seems reasonable to have doubts about Lawrence.
This. He should be running in Ann Arbor and not East Lansing. Plus his education at Swarthmore (or was it Smith?) screams elite.
Lol 🤦🏻♂️
This is absolutely the wrong district (Slotkin’s old one, held by a Republican now) to be running somebody like Lawrence imo
Lawrence should’ve primaried Dingell, not run for a toss up seat
I remember hearing similar things about AES, that he should have primaried Dingell (who is getting up there in age.) I kind of agree.
He's from East Lansing and has connections to MSU - not exactly the profile to run in Ann Arbor.
The vast majority of politicians are not authentic, so I think your first sentence is off.
Democrats couldn't have gotten a better Senate candidate to run up against in this open race besides Ashley Hinson.
I sensed Hinson's phoniness right at her campaign announcement rally. Everything was calculated in her speech just to make her sound like she's a follower and firm believer of Trump.
This sounds like an article title for The Onion.
Can barely afford filet mignon and beluga caviar?
Filet mignon is not that expensive, is it? Try white truffles.
I suppose at this point it may be best said that Abdul El-Sayed may be better able to make the case for his candidacy than Haley Stevens as he offers more of a genuine drive to want to serve. That may be what's driving his campaign as opposed to the electability thing, which is something that Stevens doesn't seem to be making the case well even though she was recruited by Chuck Schumer to run.
On the other hand, Stevens was the Chief of Staff for the auto rescue President Obama pushed to save the auto industry during the Great Recession. This was years before she ran for Congress.
That's a fair take, but it's also before the Republicans run a bunch of ads against El-Sayed.
To be fair, it’s also before they have run attack ads against Stevens, too. It’s not unreasonable to expect him to have more vulnerabilities there. But it isn’t confirmed, nor is the baseline attacks on A but not on B.
I think the pleasant surprise in those polls is that low information voters are not voting against El-Sayed just because he is of Middle Eastern descent. However, he still will be attacked for being too far left and that issue is yet to be determined by the electorate.
Yes it’s a month-old internal. Wouldn’t count on it
I continue to be unethused by how any of our candidates are polling here.
The Republicans worked with Obama for the good of the country, you say? Do you personally remember those years? That's not what happened.
Democrats had control of Congress from 2009-2010 when they were able to pass things to bail out the economy. If Republicans were in control, they would have passed nothing and blamed it all on Obama (and would have gotten away with it).
The bailout was supported by a grand total of 3 Republicans in the Senate, the ACA was supported by none.
Right. On day 1 Mitch McConnell announced it was the mission of the Rs to make Obama a one-term President. The tea party got started because the Ds elected a Black man and then passed health insurance reform. We'd have had meaningful climate change legislation too if Obama had been more competent/experienced in his 1st 2 years.
That said, returning to progressive, inspiring candidates like Obama, who can expand the electorate ( he won Indiana after all), and who aren't whack jobs like Sharon Angle or Todd Akin, or so personally damaged like Platner, does seem like a winning combination. But we ought to be able to do better than the tea party, because the 10% swing and the next 10% on the center left do have limits and that 20% outnumbers new voters. And we know what the tea party did wrong. Ex: avoiding candidates who say/believe the left wing version of crazy stuff like "I don't believe in marital rape" or whatever Akin said. To which "Defund the police" and "Abolish ICE", apparently standing up for a mass shooter, and actually being a rapist qualify. (I do think ICE needs massive reforms that would make it unrecognizable to today's version, but Abolish Ice=Open Border as a slogan.)
The minute Republicans had that meeting prior to Obama’s inauguration where they promised to block everything and anything Obama wanted passed, the strategy of Dems should have been to completely cut Republicans out of the process on everything starting with the stimulus package and instead used budget reconciliation to pass a bigger more effective package with a simple majority.
Exactly.
And if were Obama or Biden I would have brought this up to one of those Republicans the next time I saw them. “Ok, it sounds like you’re gonna block everything we propose?”. Just to put them on notice that they knew what the Republicans were doing.
ACA had a lot of regulations that were necessary for it to work as planned that probably wouldn't have passed through reconciliation. Even if the Senate parliamentarian were generous regarding the budget stuff, it couldn't have passed through reconciliation into anything similar to what became law and whatever might have passed that way would obviously have been more vulnerable to repeal later through the same process.
Similarly, I think anyone who believes we can reconciliate our way to full Medicare For All or something similar is only fooling themselves.
Oh I agree regarding the ACA. I was talking about using reconciliation for the 2009 stimulus package like was done with the 2021 one.
I think it's really important to abolish the entire Homeland Security nonsense pushed through by G.W, Bush after his negligence resulted in the 9/11/01 atrocities being committed instead of prevented. However, it might be best not to campaign on that in races in which that could be a losing message.
If there's a solution for an alternative to DHS, that would be better than just arguing you'd want to campaign simply to get rid of it.
As someone who wants DHS gone (not just ICE), I don't think it would happen unless Democrats are clear what the solution is.
Agree. Homeland has always sounded like something from late 1930s Germany. And the Patriot Act is dismal i privacy rights.
Right. And the fact that countries around the world, namely in Europe, are considerably more civilized than they were in the 1930’s, the need for a more militaristic government is pointless.
The solution is really the status quo ante.
It could or could not be.
But knowing how more to the left the Democratic Party has become since DHS was formed back in 2002, we would see things less militaristic.
I mostly agree, but I don't think "Abolish ICE" has political issues as things stand. ICE is not well liked and the rhetorical linking of it to open borders has not occurred as best I can tell. To the extent that it may have issues it's in a completely different strata than the defund slogans.
I have just a few hours to go before I leave on a 2 month Amtrak trip around the country, really can’t wait for that to start!
wow so cool! What's your itinerary?
I’m in DC, I’m heading Boston, Buffalo, Niagara Falls, Toronto, Detroit, Kalamazoo, Chicago, Glacier National Park, Seattle, Oakland/Berkeley/San Francisco, LA, Flagstaff and Sedona, Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Chicago again, New Orleans, Charlotte, Hendersonville, and finally back to DC.
I went in one going the other way 10 years ago during the Cubs run to the WS. I opted to stay in Chicago through the end of the WS and while I did t get to make it to Boston it was an incredible trip! Enjoy!
Wow, sounds like a lot of fun! Enjoy!
You'll probably be going by the Emeryville Amtrak Station if going through Berkeley. Amtrak does stop through Berkeley but it's Emeryville that has a real station.
'I've been everywhere begins playing'
Wave hello to me in Toronto! I hope the CBSA and ICE don't slow you down too much.
❤️ to fans of Amtrak and Russ.
Agreed, I took the Acela recently to Washington DC and it was really nice.
That sounds fun. Any areas of particular note along the trip?
Hope you have a blast.
Excited for everywhere, but top 5 stops for me would be seeing Glacier National Park, New Orleans, Flagstaff, Los Angeles, and Niagara Falls
Are you taking a side journey to the Grand Canyon from Flag?
No, doing Sedona instead
My youngest niece is at NAU now.
I wish you a safe trip!
So fun, you will love the mountain west if you’ve never been. Everyone should make that a bucket list item
I’m stopping in Glacier National Park at the end of July! Taking the Empire Builder west from Chicago.
Sounds like a blast!
Is anyone polling the Graham-Andrews race in South Carolina? Also, District 5? That’s Norman’s old seat. It’s open for the first time in a while. There’s a lot of growth in the Upstate. Voters are motivated by the usual things, plus redistricting and data centers. Big time.
Lol. We'll be lucky to get a poll before October 1.
Here's the latest:
Per Daily Beast, there's an Impact Research Poll showing Annie Andrews three points behind Senator Lindsay Graham. Taken I believe mid-last month.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/bloodthirsty-maga-senator-confronted-with-humiliating-poll/
Impact. Dem poll. June 17-22. I forgot about that one
Well, somebody sure will now…
RIP Graham. I didn’t like him and he was a total hypocrite on many things, but I still feel sorry and sad for his loss. I hope his sister and other family members are okay.
VT-LG:
https://bsky.app/profile/our-revolution.bsky.social/post/3mqckcpw7cc2e
…Huh. Our Revolution is endorsing Molly Gray for Lt Governor. A strange endorsement for a progressive group to make, given that Gray was Becca Balint’s centrist opponent in 2022.
Has Gray suddenly tacked to the left? Is this just a strategic move to help get the seat back from the GOP?
Looks like it’s the former. Quoting her issues page:
“Molly’s top priorities include:
Support universal primary care for every Vermonter
Urgently build more affordable housing
Protect every Vermonter against unlawful and unconstitutional federal actions
Fight for Vermont’s rural communities”
https://www.mollyforvt.com/priorities
I did not expect her to run a progressive campaign, especially since the last Dem LG, David Zuckerman, who lost (and was controversial), was a progressive.
Wasn’t the issue with Zuckerman more that he was a quack on vaccines? I don’t think being a progressive was the issue, this is the state that routinely sends Bernie Sanders to the Senate. If Gray has tacked left on these issues, good for her.
That is a good point, this is Vermont we’re talking about. I’m aware Zuckerman’s vaccine record was not good.
These don't sound like particularly left positions for a D.
Universal healthcare is generally considered a left wing position in general, as far as I know. Affordable housing isn’t left specific but is a very popular position on the left. At least as far as I know.
How many Dems running this cycle or last have been against some version of universal primary care? Was Dan Goldman against it? Or de Gette?
I guess my bigger point is that you should be thrilled, because if the bullets you posted from Gray's campaign are solid progressive to you, then the overwhelming majority of Dems will be aligned with you, even in SC if you ever decide to move here. 😁
Not that I can tell you how you should feel. <g>
As far as I know, some Dems are still against universal healthcare. It would have passed by now if they were not.
Against universal healthcare but against a public healthcare option besides Medicare? It may be different in terms of how the proposal for change in the healthcare system may be.
Pete Buttigeg was interviewed by Dr. Mike on how getting a legitimate public healthcare option makes it so there's healthier competition with private healthcare insurance in place.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9x0SBQKvmxk
Being progressive isn't usually a problem in Vermont (though I think in the last election a lot of Dems got in trouble over tax issues?)
Zuckerman, however, came off almost as a hippy-dippy cartoon character, to the point of sounding MAHA on vaccine issues, and that was too much.
One thing I’ll say about Cait Conley, the Dem nominee in my seat, she is very charismatic. I met her at a local town event and she has a lot of energy and just seems like a really nice person to boot. A fantastic contrast to Mike Lawler, who has a critical mass of what can only be described as the opposite of charisma, and just seems like an unpleasant asshole to boot. To say nothing of his atrocious voting record and nasty habit of removing people from his town halls.
Anyway, if anyone wants to pitch in to her campaign, here’s her ActBlue:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/conley-web
(Just be sure to use a throwaway email — ActBlue in general is a notorious spam email factory.)
As long as Mike Lawler is booted out of office, Cait Conley has my support. That's all I care about.
But of course since you're based in NY-17 you know more on what's going on in the district than I do.
I hope MI Rs lose the state House after the snide remark the House Majority Speaker made about Whitmer vetoing all nine bills the state House withheld from her.
https://www.wlns.com/news/politics/michigan-supreme-court-bills/amp/
That’s all they have. Snide remarks and mindless cruelty. Imagine if they had to run on their actual policies and record — what has the GOP actually gotten done of value since Trump won?
Hopefully voters will reject this garbage in November, yes.
I think there’s a good chance MI Ds will regain a trifecta. And then they need to be petty and strip Hall of his committee assignments. Maybe give him a basement office like NC Rs did with one Democratic legislator.
It's not opening for me. What does "withheld" mean in this context?
During the lame duck session in 2024, while Dems still controlled the state House and Senate in MI, they passed nine bills. Then in January 2025 when the R House Speaker took over, he refused to transfer the passed bills to the governor's desk.
So what did she veto, then?
https://wwmt.com/news/michigan-politics/michigan-supreme-court-bills-legislation-senate-house-order-legal-politics-government-policy-ruling-gov-gretchen-whitmer-state
So she made the Republicans win.
It will be interesting to see what happens to Platner's campaign funds, if he has anything left over.
According to the NYT article from yesterday he had less than $100,000 in the bank. I would like to know where a lot of that money went because Maine should be a cheap state to advertise in unless you're flooding NESN and World Cup games with ads.
He was running ads on NESN during Red Sox games (which is probably the most expensive ad buy in New England except for an NFL game on the Boston over-the-air stations).
If I recall correctly, no part of Maine is in the Boston TV market, with the state split between the Portland-Augusta, Bangor, and Presque Isle DMAs. Presque Isle is a very small DMA (Aroostook County), relying on Bangor for an ABC affiliate and only having two commercial TV stations (only one of which is a full-power station). Portland-Augusta also covers a couple of counties in northern New Hampshire that are too far away from Massachusetts to be covered by the Boston stations.
Troy Jackson seems like he's in the driver seats for this convention but I think one bad oppo dump would easily imperil his candidacy among delegates who are a lot more engaged than regular voters. We will see if Jackson survives whatever extensive vetting that takes place over the next few weeks.
JDV landed in Kentucky yesterday. Is the Kentucky GOP ready to announce Mitch's passing and set a replacement candidate for a special election? Additionally, McConnell's home is undergoing a strangely timed refurbishment (ie new carpet and flooring).
https://www.whas11.com/article/news/local/air-force-two-jd-vance-louisville-sdf/417-df3be64a-77e5-414d-81c6-3ec24e1a54f7
https://www.thedailybeast.com/mcconnells-home-undergoing-weirdly-timed-refurbishment/
I hate how Mitch's whereabouts are being kept hidden from the public.
Cook Political Report ratings change
Ohio Governor
Lean Republican —> Toss up
——
Arizona Governor
Toss up —-> Lean Democrat
——
Maine Governor
Likely Democrat —-> Solid Democrat
——
New Mexico Governor
Likely Democrat —-> Solid Democrat
——
Oregon Governor
Safe Democrat —> Likely Democrat
What's their logic for Oregon? Has something changed recently, or are they saying it was premature to label it safe?
There was a poll that had the Republican ahead here. This is happened in the past here and the Dem won, but I guess this warrants moving it out of safe.
That was an internal poll for the republican candidate I think.
Oregon Dems have a long and proud tradition of underperforming even if they win
Yes, but that should have been factored in already.
John Carr mentioned a new poll with the R ahead, which I think explains it.
2022 felt like the perfect storm for a republican to win with an independent former dem splitting the non-republican vote, but they still couldn't do it. I doubt they get any closer this time.
Agreed. Will Kotek underperform? Most likely. Is there any shot at all that she loses? Not in a political environment where Georgia and Ohio’s governors mansions might flip
Not again.
MI-07:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/surging-progressive-once-said-black-democratic-leaders-defang-the-white-left_n_6a51a01ae4b084b03f7f0f6d?origin=home-latest-news-unit
Well it looks like the mudslinging has started. Apparently Will Lawrence, the progressive running here, once said black political leaders “defang the white left”. Lawrence says he regrets such statements.
God help us if any of the other candidates have shit come out. Is vetting that hard?
I'm not sure that statement will be a problem for him or that it's completely wrong.
Also, I think folks have gotten real over their skis on the buzzword of the week with vetting. An offhand, ill-placed comment is generally not something people think about when folks who work in politics talk about vetting.
And of course he picked up endorsements from Bernie and all his groups. They keep repeating the same mistakes by lining up behind these people because they say the right things while doing no vetting.
Well if nothing else, hopefully lessons will be learned in 2028. I saw progressive Kai Newkirk in AZ already lost an endorsement after some concerning info got dug up.
What pisses me off is that now all this shit coming out is going to be used to tar and feather the left, and will be used as justification for interference in (potentially safe, and not just swing) primaries. I’m already seeing people roping DAC and Melat Kiros into discussions of swing seat flawed candidates, despite the two being in safe Dem seats. (Apparently “they will be used against us!” Just wait until they say that about all progressives, and not just DAC types.) I cannot describe how angry I am at Bernie and the other progressives for all this. We’re going to be turned into a party pariah because of the failure to do vetting.
Sadly I think these candidates losing general elections is the only thing that is going to get these groups to seriously reflect on what their doing. If these weren't must win seats I'd be content with letting them touch the stove to learn but with the gerrymandering wars Dems don't have alot of margin for error right now.
DAC was a bad choice IMO (not that Espaillat was anything great) and I didn't see any particularly good reason to dump DeGette. But the idea that swing voters anywhere else will vote Republican because of them is ridiculous.
However, I can't complain about interference in primaries if it helps ensure that we nominate candidates who can win the general election and keep out those who could lose due to personal or political reasons, regardless of how loudly they repeat progressive buzzwords and talking points.
Well, thankfully, this is an active primary, and I’m unconvinced Lawrence was the favorite to begin with
Lawrence has two primary opponents, both of whom have national security and/or foreign policy backgrounds, and they may split the moderate vote and allow Lawrence to win the primary with a plurality.