Anyway, as for races I'm interested in -- Analilia Mejia's win in NJ-11's primary and Nida Allam's near-win in NC-04, mixed with the mostly bad results for the left in IL, have me wondering -- what is the current state of left primary candidates (open and challengers)? Of the ones who are running, who is most likely to win? Where might the left do well -- and not well?
Curious to know people's thoughts. I think Brad Lander and Donavan McKinney are at least in good shape, and since I'm including open primaries I actually think Claire Valdez may pull off an upset with Mamdani's backing. How is everyone else positioned?
-I don't think Illinois was "mostly bad" - there were worse candidates than Miller despite her big outside spending (Preston, a domestic abuser; Jackson Jr., a fraud and nepo baby), Ford is pretty liberal and Conyears-Ervin, Boykin and Friedman certainly are not, and Biss is better than Fine
-Lander and McKinney are certainly in good positions, and I would say probably Pearson (TN-9), Bush (MO-1) and Kiros (CO-1, per my comment on the digest) are as well
-I'm gunning for Howard (NH-1), Roath (MA-8), Valdez (NY-7), Schlossberg (NY-12, I know a lot of people don't like him), Blake (NY-15), Reynolds-Jackson or Hamawy (NJ-12), Rabb (PA-3), Brooks (PA-7), Dunn (MD-5), Guzman (VA-7, not declared), Clark (GA-13), Green (TX-18), Cavanaugh (NE-2) and Blouin (UT-1).
-Out of the ones I mentioned, I think Valdez, Schlossberg, Reynolds-Jackson, Brooks, Dunn and Cavanaugh have the best chances
Serious question: When was the last time any member of Congress lost their primary, and then came back in the next election to win the primary, against the same person who had previously beaten them, and without the district changing in redistricting?
Can't think of any time that has ever happened, but Cynthia McKinney was primaried by Denise Majette in 2002, who retired to run for Senate in 2004, and then McKinney was again primaried by Hank Johnson in 2006.
Bush is pretty toxic, but she only lost to Bell by a little over 5 points in 2024 and also previously primaried Lacy Clay from the left in 2020. I wouldn't put it past her to do it again.
I don't know enough about some of these candidates to have opinions of them. However, I am not reflexively opposing incumbents just because they happen to be incumbents - a primary is a choice between candidates, not a referendum on one candidate, and so the positions of the incumbent and their challenger(s) are equally important.
A few races where we differ are MO-01 (I'm supporting Bell), CO-01 (DeGette), NY-12 (Lasher or Bores) and NY-15 (Torres). Some of the others are open seats where Dems have several good candidates.
TN-09 is tough though. I like Steve Cohen, but Justin Pearson is also a pretty good guy. And TX-18 is the same way - Green and Menefee are both great. Hopefully Texas will bluen sufficiently by 2031 that Republicans will feel that they have no choice but to recreate the Democratic seats in Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio that they cut this year.
I could probably agree with you to support Lasher over Schlossberg, but I'm not entirely thrilled with Bores due to his work for Palantir. I support Green over Menefee because of Menefee's money from the AI industry.
I’ll give Bores this — some of AI hates him, and that’s a plus for me. (Incidentally, my church in NYC is in his district, and I’ve actually met him twice — once when he ran for Assembly the first time, and once at a street fair. He was a really nice guy both times.)
Is Wesley Bell or Cori Bush actually better at helping improve the quality of life for their constituents? I know Bell has a more conservative history and Bush is more outspoken, but is one better at actually helping people?
-Bush secured additional funds for the FTA by working with Republican Sen. Roy Blunt in 2022. She secured $13 million in earmarks for her district in 2024. She secured $750,000 for the National Urban League in 2022. She was also a triage nurse and civil rights activist.
-Bell extensively visited the district after a tornado hit St. Louis last May. As county prosecutor in suburban St. Louis County, he eased penalties for marijuana users and campaigned on reducing death penalty cases.
That's not counting the numerous scandals they both have - Bush was accused of misappropriating federal funds and was attacked for her harsh stance on "defund the police", while Bell was also accused of misappropriating government funds, accused of discrimination by one of his employees based on her gender when he was a prosecutor, and didn't investigate the death of Michael Brown.
I just wanted to clarify one thing - suburban St. Louis County is more than 60% of MO-01. The city of St. Louis itself now has fewer than 300,000 people. It's quite sad for a city that used to have 850,000 people at its peak in 1950.
Wasn’t she unpopular though? I remember something controversial happened with her.
Cara Spencer also wasn’t too bad as a candidate for what it’s worth. She was to Jones’ right but I remember reading her platform and being alright with it.
Thank you for the report. I know it sounds silly because the media tries to start these food fights over hot button issues, but I still look for the person that might be better at the entire job. Giving advocacy speeches is an important component of the job, but certainly not rhe whole thing. It can be hard to pick up the show hores from the work horses.
I'll always have love for Cori Bush for her protest on the Capitol steps to extend the eviction moratorium back in 2021, which saved thousands of renters nationwide from becoming homeless during the height of Covid
PA-3: Democratic state Rep. Morgan Cephas is out, leaving state Rep. Chris Rabb, state Sen. Sharif Street, and physician Ala Stanford as the major candidates to succeed Dwight Evans.
In non-political news (but hey, that's OK since this is the open thread), the UConn women's basketball team just reached the Elite Eight after defeating North Carolina by a close-by-their-standards 21 points. This is the UConn women's 18th Elite Eight in the past 19 national tournaments, and their 29th in the past 32 tournaments.
Next up is their old foe Notre Dame, once one of the best teams in the country but, like so many of UConn's onetime rivals, has gone somewhat downhill lately. Hopefully the UConn women will be able to go all the way!
https://newrepublic.com/post/208293/cpac-attendees-confused-cheer-trump-impeachment
...Yeah, the GOP is cooked this year.
Which is a good thing because we want this to happen.
And all the time!
Anyway, as for races I'm interested in -- Analilia Mejia's win in NJ-11's primary and Nida Allam's near-win in NC-04, mixed with the mostly bad results for the left in IL, have me wondering -- what is the current state of left primary candidates (open and challengers)? Of the ones who are running, who is most likely to win? Where might the left do well -- and not well?
Curious to know people's thoughts. I think Brad Lander and Donavan McKinney are at least in good shape, and since I'm including open primaries I actually think Claire Valdez may pull off an upset with Mamdani's backing. How is everyone else positioned?
-I don't think Illinois was "mostly bad" - there were worse candidates than Miller despite her big outside spending (Preston, a domestic abuser; Jackson Jr., a fraud and nepo baby), Ford is pretty liberal and Conyears-Ervin, Boykin and Friedman certainly are not, and Biss is better than Fine
-Lander and McKinney are certainly in good positions, and I would say probably Pearson (TN-9), Bush (MO-1) and Kiros (CO-1, per my comment on the digest) are as well
-I'm gunning for Howard (NH-1), Roath (MA-8), Valdez (NY-7), Schlossberg (NY-12, I know a lot of people don't like him), Blake (NY-15), Reynolds-Jackson or Hamawy (NJ-12), Rabb (PA-3), Brooks (PA-7), Dunn (MD-5), Guzman (VA-7, not declared), Clark (GA-13), Green (TX-18), Cavanaugh (NE-2) and Blouin (UT-1).
-Out of the ones I mentioned, I think Valdez, Schlossberg, Reynolds-Jackson, Brooks, Dunn and Cavanaugh have the best chances
Serious question: When was the last time any member of Congress lost their primary, and then came back in the next election to win the primary, against the same person who had previously beaten them, and without the district changing in redistricting?
Can't think of any time that has ever happened, but Cynthia McKinney was primaried by Denise Majette in 2002, who retired to run for Senate in 2004, and then McKinney was again primaried by Hank Johnson in 2006.
OK. I asked because that's exactly what Cori Bush is attempting to do, and I highly doubt that she will actually succeed.
Wesley Bell could, theoretically, be vulnerable in a primary. But not to Bush.
Bush is pretty toxic, but she only lost to Bell by a little over 5 points in 2024 and also previously primaried Lacy Clay from the left in 2020. I wouldn't put it past her to do it again.
Bell is also himself in the midst of an ethics scandal. Apparently, if I remember right, he used campaign money to purchase a car for someone.
Perhaps I overstated IL as a left loss then. I do agree that the center lost some too — and I’m glad Jesse Jr lost.
I don't know enough about some of these candidates to have opinions of them. However, I am not reflexively opposing incumbents just because they happen to be incumbents - a primary is a choice between candidates, not a referendum on one candidate, and so the positions of the incumbent and their challenger(s) are equally important.
A few races where we differ are MO-01 (I'm supporting Bell), CO-01 (DeGette), NY-12 (Lasher or Bores) and NY-15 (Torres). Some of the others are open seats where Dems have several good candidates.
TN-09 is tough though. I like Steve Cohen, but Justin Pearson is also a pretty good guy. And TX-18 is the same way - Green and Menefee are both great. Hopefully Texas will bluen sufficiently by 2031 that Republicans will feel that they have no choice but to recreate the Democratic seats in Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio that they cut this year.
I could probably agree with you to support Lasher over Schlossberg, but I'm not entirely thrilled with Bores due to his work for Palantir. I support Green over Menefee because of Menefee's money from the AI industry.
I’ll give Bores this — some of AI hates him, and that’s a plus for me. (Incidentally, my church in NYC is in his district, and I’ve actually met him twice — once when he ran for Assembly the first time, and once at a street fair. He was a really nice guy both times.)
I do not like Torres personally. I’m not a fan of his “anti-woke”-adjacent rhetoric.
Everything you need to know about Torres can be found by watching his full interview with Adam Friedland, a center-left podcaster who Torres made cry.
Is Wesley Bell or Cori Bush actually better at helping improve the quality of life for their constituents? I know Bell has a more conservative history and Bush is more outspoken, but is one better at actually helping people?
It's mixed:
-Bush secured additional funds for the FTA by working with Republican Sen. Roy Blunt in 2022. She secured $13 million in earmarks for her district in 2024. She secured $750,000 for the National Urban League in 2022. She was also a triage nurse and civil rights activist.
-Bell extensively visited the district after a tornado hit St. Louis last May. As county prosecutor in suburban St. Louis County, he eased penalties for marijuana users and campaigned on reducing death penalty cases.
That's not counting the numerous scandals they both have - Bush was accused of misappropriating federal funds and was attacked for her harsh stance on "defund the police", while Bell was also accused of misappropriating government funds, accused of discrimination by one of his employees based on her gender when he was a prosecutor, and didn't investigate the death of Michael Brown.
I just wanted to clarify one thing - suburban St. Louis County is more than 60% of MO-01. The city of St. Louis itself now has fewer than 300,000 people. It's quite sad for a city that used to have 850,000 people at its peak in 1950.
I kind of wish a better progressive had run. I saw similar sentiment on left Bluesky.
Actually, if Bush loses, are there any other progressives who might be good?
Perhaps former St. Louis mayor Tishaura Jones, who lost re-election to a centrist challenger in 2025, could run.
Wasn’t she unpopular though? I remember something controversial happened with her.
Cara Spencer also wasn’t too bad as a candidate for what it’s worth. She was to Jones’ right but I remember reading her platform and being alright with it.
I guess so.
https://www.city-journal.org/article/st-louis-mayor-tishaura-jones
Not sure who else could
Thank you for the report. I know it sounds silly because the media tries to start these food fights over hot button issues, but I still look for the person that might be better at the entire job. Giving advocacy speeches is an important component of the job, but certainly not rhe whole thing. It can be hard to pick up the show hores from the work horses.
Bush also had that whole mess where she claimed she was a faith healer and cured a woman’s cancer with her touch.
I'll always have love for Cori Bush for her protest on the Capitol steps to extend the eviction moratorium back in 2021, which saved thousands of renters nationwide from becoming homeless during the height of Covid
I hope Wesley Bell would join in with a similar protest if such a rent crisis arose in the future.
https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/state-rep-morgan-cephas-exits-congressional-race-20260327.html
PA-3: Democratic state Rep. Morgan Cephas is out, leaving state Rep. Chris Rabb, state Sen. Sharif Street, and physician Ala Stanford as the major candidates to succeed Dwight Evans.
In non-political news (but hey, that's OK since this is the open thread), the UConn women's basketball team just reached the Elite Eight after defeating North Carolina by a close-by-their-standards 21 points. This is the UConn women's 18th Elite Eight in the past 19 national tournaments, and their 29th in the past 32 tournaments.
Next up is their old foe Notre Dame, once one of the best teams in the country but, like so many of UConn's onetime rivals, has gone somewhat downhill lately. Hopefully the UConn women will be able to go all the way!