Well, now I'm interested in California's 14th congressional race, which frankly, should have a special election soon after Congressman Eric Swalwell hopefully resigns in disgrace.
For those out of the loop, the SF Chronicle published this story today with a pretty bad sexual assault (actually, arguably, rape) accusation against Swalwell by a former staffer. And it sounds like there are more stories from other former staffers.
Much of the discourse has focused on his campaign for Governor, calling on him to drop out of the race. However, given the evidence cited in the article (contemporaneous texts, medical records, and other compelling info), I think a resignation is in order.
He has too big of an ego, too much ambition for his career, to resign. He is a narcissist. And if this is true, then he deserves to go down by losing the governor's race and being publicly shunned from electoral politics.
Edit: not sure how much of a splash it'll bring, but Rep. Jimmy Gomez just left the Swalwell campaign and told him to drop out.
In the early 2010’s, a woman named Christine Fang seemed to be trying to cultivate relationships with rising local politicians. Fang reportedly gained access to Swalwell’s network and successfully placed an associate in his congressional office. In 2015, the FBI informed Swalwell that Fang was suspected of ties to Chinese Ministry of State Security. Swalwell cut off contact.
In 2020, Fox News, citing anonymous sources, alleged a sexual relationship between Swalwell and Fang to which Swalwell’s office declined to comment. A two-year House ethics investigation that ended in 2023 took no further action over whether Swalwell violated any House rules or “other standards of conduct” with his connection to Fang. https://eastbayinsiders.substack.com/p/the-legend-of-fang-fang-returns
That said: is there enough time for a special election if he does? States take unnecessarily long to run these. With the kinds of time tables we typically see it could basically coincide with the general in November. Which I'd be fine with, just not sure we'd get the excitement of a special election this summer.
There's another article by CNN. Skimming it seems to mostly summarize the SF Chronicle report, however it does have a new detail that I didn't see in the original report.
"Three other women who spoke with CNN also alleged various kinds of sexual misconduct by the Democratic congressman – including Swalwell sending them unsolicited explicit messages or nude photos."
We rightfully celebrated this week’s amazing results. Now it’s time to look to the near horizon. What I’m watching:
1. May 5: Ohio primary turnout. Can Dems outvote Republicans? We couldn’t in 2018. It would be a promising sign if we continued out primary turnout streak from Texas and North Carolina here.
2. May 19: Georgia primary. The Supreme Court races are big. Hope we can turnout more Democrats yet again. Hoping Jason Esteves can get into the Democratic gubernatorial runoff. Also hoping that both Republican Senate and gubernatorial primaries go to a runoff.
3. May 26: Texas runoff. Hoping for Paxton🙏 . Rooting for Johnson in the Dem AG runoff. Don’t care much about the Dem LG race, either would be good.
Those May races are important, but let's first get Virginia those four more House seats, and (hopefully) watch the Hungarian people oust Orban. Then we can focus on the elections in May.
I don't think it's wrong to also be interested in other elections after Virginia and Hungary. After all, this is a website where we discuss elections in general, not only the one that's closest.
I'm interested in the primary for my home state of West Virginia on May 12.
-I support Jeff Kessler for U.S. Senate over sex pest and progressive organizer Zach Shrewsbury and Stephanie Tomana, a teacher I had in middle school, for WV-2. There's a lot of buzz around state Sen. Tom Willis primarying Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, but I'm not sure it'll go anywhere.
-While not major primary races, state Del. John Williams, who is running for state Senate against a longtime Republican incumbent (in my district), and former Del. Linda Longstreth, who is running for her old seat (not in my district), are other local faces I'll support in November, along with Olivia Miller, who is running for Williams's seat.
-I'm interested to see which senators and delegates fall to their Republican primary challengers; Del. Bob Fehrenbacher is challenging Sen. Mike Azinger, former congressional candidate Joe Earley (who I've seen a lot of support for when I've been down in the district) is challenging Sen. Ben Queen, and former far-right Sen. Robert Karnes is challenging Sen. Bill Hamilton.
Do you agree with AWildLibAppeared that he should just resign rather than drop out of the race, or wait for further information to come forward (Swalwell appears to be ready to sue his accuser for defamation)?
the longer he waits the worse it's going to get for him, based on the stuff I've heard WHICH LET ME EMPHASIZE IS ALL THIRD HAND RUMORS AND SPECULATION AND NOT SOCIAL MEDIA FODDER AND NOT MY STORY TO TELL. But suing the first accuser for defamation...yeah, good luck with that. The only hint I will drop is that Jimmy Gomez, founder of the Dads Caucus, was probably the 1st elected to withdraw his endorsement.
CA-Gov - With Swalwell's campaign collapsing, who benefits from this in the primary?
I don't think the Republicans are going to benefit at all from this, as Swalwell's base is mostly hyperpartisan centrist and center-left Dems who aren't going to consider voting for a Republican nowadays.
The most likely beneficiary is Tom Steyer, as he's the highest in the polls among those who most people who had been supporting Swalwell would consider switching their support to.
Some other beneficiaries could include Xavier Becerra, Matt Mahan, and Tony Thurmond, but they're too far back in the polls (especially Mahan and Thurmond) for them to have a chance. Katie Porter could also benefit, but she is known for being extremely difficult for staffers to work with, and the Swalwell allegations might lead to increased media coverage of that fact, even if it's not directly related to the Swalwell allegations
I think Steyer has the best chance to benefit from this, because of Porter's earlier controversies and Steyer's surprising increase in support from progressives despite his billionaire status. The other candidates are so pathetic I would probably vote for him.
Are you referring to her losing her temper when filming a piece on climate change and an aide kept getting into the shot? Not her best day but not a scandal.
I was already leaning Steyer before this dropped myself as the do no damage option. Even if the accusation is false (it is true imo), that’s way too much damage for Republicans to pound on. We gotta have at least Generic Democrat as our nominee in CA-Gov leading the party ticket with this new redraw. Once a Republican starts to get nearer to 45, that new map looks way more shaky. Democrats wouldn’t lose obviously, but the margin matters.
We’ve already had 2 actors become Governor of California, so why not a billionaire? It’s worked out great in Illinois for us. Tangent since it’s the weekend: Do you think billionaire Democrats try to be more left wing because they’re a billionaire who already gets distrust from our party base just by being one? It feels like those Democrats who want to actually win *side eyes Michael Bloomberg*, kind of just become really left wing, maybe more than they personally are ideologically in order to gain trust from our party voters.
I suspect most ultra-wealthy people's ideologies aren't changed at that level from what their life experience would have brought them to otherwise. There's a certain requirement for extreme self-interest to become a billionaire, which results in them being more often conservative or moderate. But ultimately being a billionaire means someone can be themselves as much as they like without worry about consequences; they have enough wealth and power that they're going to be surrounded by yes men that encourage their default preferences.
In that light, I suspect people like Pritzker and Steyer aren't faking it for electoral purposes.
I don’t think they’re faking it to get elected to be clear, just that maybe they run their campaigns in a more left way than they probably would ordinarily or most other Democrats would. Pritzker is campaigning on Project 2029 and prosecuting and jailing all of Trump’s government for example. Steyer I haven’t seen his campaign yet, but if he’s getting endorsed by progressives, that to me means he’s running a pretty left campaign that’s gaining traction.
CA-Gov: This warrants its own thread - Sen. Adam Schiff, a powerful California Democrat, rescinds his endorsement of Rep. Eric Swalwell for governor after Swalwell's sexual assault allegations.
I hope Schiff and Gomez and anyone else dropping their endorsements also go one step further and pick someone else to endorse. Ideally with some level of coordination.
Might be worse than no endorsement, hah. Becerra isn't getting to the top two. The party establishment in California needs to accept that the overwhelming likeliest options for a dem that gets to the top two is Porter and Steyer, and they should act accordingly.
Not too surprising, considering that Collins did get 68% of the vote in 2014.
Although... I was proudly one of the 32% that year! I knew that Collins would win, but I simply could not stomach voting for a Republican.
And in a fun little bit of irony, the Maine Secretary of State, who will be administering this election, is Shenna Bellows, the Democrat who Collins defeated in 2014.
Yeah, and Bellows has done a great job increasing voter turnout across Maine. Maine was one of only six states where Harris won more votes than Biden, and one of only two (along with Utah) that wasn't a closely divided swing state (the others were GA, NV, NC, and WI). Utah can be explained because its population is growing quickly, but Maine's is not, and yet turnout there still went up compared to 2020.
I think like most Mainer’s they voted for her because Collins was the incumbent and was doing well criss cross campaigning in the state as well as sounding moderate. But now after people have awoken to who Collins really is, they’re like “she’s gotta go”. I also don’t think it helped us that Republican Senator Olympia Snowe who actually was a moderate, was in office and revered for so long.
Voters wrongfully got the impression that the 2 as 2 moderates were perfect to represent Maine’s interests and didn’t pay attention to her actual votes. But her re-election margin has shrunk every cycle as more people wake up to her shtick. You can only fool voters for so long despite voting Republican the same way for your career in a blue state. Eventually people wake up.
There was a new Democrat who launched recently who has a good background for KS Senate, but I’m personally still waiting to see if Davids decides to run. She raised more money than Marshall the last quarter, the year is more and more, election after election looking like an epic wipeout for Republicans and she just might be able to become Senator, which would mean 6 years before her next campaign instead of having to run every 2. That’s a pretty enticing opportunity for someone who is ambitious.
If she doesn’t end up running, this guy seems pretty decent at first glance, though I have no idea his ability to fundraise/run a campaign since I don’t think he’s ever been in office before.
Thanks. For my part, I like Sandy Spidel Neumann quite a bit, and have contributed modestly to her campaign. But I too am keeping an eye on Congresswoman Sharice Davids , to whom I have also contributed (equally modestly).
Well, now I'm interested in California's 14th congressional race, which frankly, should have a special election soon after Congressman Eric Swalwell hopefully resigns in disgrace.
For those out of the loop, the SF Chronicle published this story today with a pretty bad sexual assault (actually, arguably, rape) accusation against Swalwell by a former staffer. And it sounds like there are more stories from other former staffers.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/eric-swalwell-allegations-22198271.php
Much of the discourse has focused on his campaign for Governor, calling on him to drop out of the race. However, given the evidence cited in the article (contemporaneous texts, medical records, and other compelling info), I think a resignation is in order.
Would anyone disagree...?
He has too big of an ego, too much ambition for his career, to resign. He is a narcissist. And if this is true, then he deserves to go down by losing the governor's race and being publicly shunned from electoral politics.
Edit: not sure how much of a splash it'll bring, but Rep. Jimmy Gomez just left the Swalwell campaign and told him to drop out.
This is moving fast, and he's losing other endorsements, too.
I think the specific nature of the story has stuck with people, so he's probably going to be pressured into dropping out.
His potential dropout combined with Trump's Hilton endorsement takes a lot of my worry of a lockout away.
Gomez pulling his endorsement from Swalwell is a huge signal that Swalwell's campaign is collapsing and probably finished.
Wow - just saw that Sen. Ruben Gallego, an ally of Swalwell's in Congress who is similar to him ideologically, also pulled his endorsement.
Sen. Adam Schiff now has as well.
https://x.com/RubenGallego/status/2042721607593136622
https://x.com/AdamSchiff/status/2042731289430667538
Very long and detailed story with dates, multiple events etc. Quite a story. There have been rumors about Swalwell for years.
The story reminds me of an earlier one.
In the early 2010’s, a woman named Christine Fang seemed to be trying to cultivate relationships with rising local politicians. Fang reportedly gained access to Swalwell’s network and successfully placed an associate in his congressional office. In 2015, the FBI informed Swalwell that Fang was suspected of ties to Chinese Ministry of State Security. Swalwell cut off contact.
In 2020, Fox News, citing anonymous sources, alleged a sexual relationship between Swalwell and Fang to which Swalwell’s office declined to comment. A two-year House ethics investigation that ended in 2023 took no further action over whether Swalwell violated any House rules or “other standards of conduct” with his connection to Fang. https://eastbayinsiders.substack.com/p/the-legend-of-fang-fang-returns
“‘Arguably’ rape?” The allegation is rape. Of course I have no way of knowing exactly what the evidence is. Or how credible.
I meant that I would consider it rape, although the journalists who wrote the story describe it as sexual assault.
When Tony Gonzales does.
Something about Swalwell always struck me the wrong way. So not surprised.
I agree Gonzales (and Trump, for that matter) should resign, but we shouldn't be afraid to hold Dems to that same standard.
Based on what I've seen I'd say he should resign.
That said: is there enough time for a special election if he does? States take unnecessarily long to run these. With the kinds of time tables we typically see it could basically coincide with the general in November. Which I'd be fine with, just not sure we'd get the excitement of a special election this summer.
It would probably just be in November, as the June special to succeed the late Doug LaMalfa is happening over 5 months after he died.
There's another article by CNN. Skimming it seems to mostly summarize the SF Chronicle report, however it does have a new detail that I didn't see in the original report.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/10/us/eric-swalwell-sexual-misconduct-allegations-invs
"Three other women who spoke with CNN also alleged various kinds of sexual misconduct by the Democratic congressman – including Swalwell sending them unsolicited explicit messages or nude photos."
So it's not 1 allegation. It's 4 allegations.
Yeah, and according to the folks who were posting about this on Twitter, more accusations are going to come, too.
This thing is moving so fast. Pelosi just called for him to dropout. He’s done.
https://x.com/MZanona/status/2042741347673596157
PELOSI weighs in, says she has advised Swalwell to drop his bid for governor
“The young woman who has made serious allegations against Congressman Swalwell must be respected and heard.
This extremely sensitive matter must be appropriately investigated with full transparency and accountability.
As I discussed with Congressman Swalwell, it is clear that is best done outside of a gubernatorial campaign.”
We rightfully celebrated this week’s amazing results. Now it’s time to look to the near horizon. What I’m watching:
1. May 5: Ohio primary turnout. Can Dems outvote Republicans? We couldn’t in 2018. It would be a promising sign if we continued out primary turnout streak from Texas and North Carolina here.
2. May 19: Georgia primary. The Supreme Court races are big. Hope we can turnout more Democrats yet again. Hoping Jason Esteves can get into the Democratic gubernatorial runoff. Also hoping that both Republican Senate and gubernatorial primaries go to a runoff.
3. May 26: Texas runoff. Hoping for Paxton🙏 . Rooting for Johnson in the Dem AG runoff. Don’t care much about the Dem LG race, either would be good.
Those May races are important, but let's first get Virginia those four more House seats, and (hopefully) watch the Hungarian people oust Orban. Then we can focus on the elections in May.
I don't think it's wrong to also be interested in other elections after Virginia and Hungary. After all, this is a website where we discuss elections in general, not only the one that's closest.
Forgot about Virginia.
You aren’t alone. I forgot about NJ-11 being next week! That race kind of went silent after the primary for the special election.
What’s the difference between candidates in the TX AG runoff?
I'm interested in the primary for my home state of West Virginia on May 12.
-I support Jeff Kessler for U.S. Senate over sex pest and progressive organizer Zach Shrewsbury and Stephanie Tomana, a teacher I had in middle school, for WV-2. There's a lot of buzz around state Sen. Tom Willis primarying Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, but I'm not sure it'll go anywhere.
-While not major primary races, state Del. John Williams, who is running for state Senate against a longtime Republican incumbent (in my district), and former Del. Linda Longstreth, who is running for her old seat (not in my district), are other local faces I'll support in November, along with Olivia Miller, who is running for Williams's seat.
-I'm interested to see which senators and delegates fall to their Republican primary challengers; Del. Bob Fehrenbacher is challenging Sen. Mike Azinger, former congressional candidate Joe Earley (who I've seen a lot of support for when I've been down in the district) is challenging Sen. Ben Queen, and former far-right Sen. Robert Karnes is challenging Sen. Bill Hamilton.
oh, IDK, California governor race seems interesting, no particular reason...
Do you agree with AWildLibAppeared that he should just resign rather than drop out of the race, or wait for further information to come forward (Swalwell appears to be ready to sue his accuser for defamation)?
the longer he waits the worse it's going to get for him, based on the stuff I've heard WHICH LET ME EMPHASIZE IS ALL THIRD HAND RUMORS AND SPECULATION AND NOT SOCIAL MEDIA FODDER AND NOT MY STORY TO TELL. But suing the first accuser for defamation...yeah, good luck with that. The only hint I will drop is that Jimmy Gomez, founder of the Dads Caucus, was probably the 1st elected to withdraw his endorsement.
CA-Gov - With Swalwell's campaign collapsing, who benefits from this in the primary?
I don't think the Republicans are going to benefit at all from this, as Swalwell's base is mostly hyperpartisan centrist and center-left Dems who aren't going to consider voting for a Republican nowadays.
The most likely beneficiary is Tom Steyer, as he's the highest in the polls among those who most people who had been supporting Swalwell would consider switching their support to.
Some other beneficiaries could include Xavier Becerra, Matt Mahan, and Tony Thurmond, but they're too far back in the polls (especially Mahan and Thurmond) for them to have a chance. Katie Porter could also benefit, but she is known for being extremely difficult for staffers to work with, and the Swalwell allegations might lead to increased media coverage of that fact, even if it's not directly related to the Swalwell allegations
I think Steyer has the best chance to benefit from this, because of Porter's earlier controversies and Steyer's surprising increase in support from progressives despite his billionaire status. The other candidates are so pathetic I would probably vote for him.
I've never heard of a Porter scandal.
Are you referring to her losing her temper when filming a piece on climate change and an aide kept getting into the shot? Not her best day but not a scandal.
That and the more recent outburst in front of a reporter, back last fall. Scandal was perhaps not the best word.
Yeah, not an expert on California politics, but I think Steyer is likely to be the biggest beneficiary.
I believe Porter will be the major beneficiary of Swallwell’s …uh… misfortune. Because of the eclipsing gender aspect of the allegations he faces.
I was already leaning Steyer before this dropped myself as the do no damage option. Even if the accusation is false (it is true imo), that’s way too much damage for Republicans to pound on. We gotta have at least Generic Democrat as our nominee in CA-Gov leading the party ticket with this new redraw. Once a Republican starts to get nearer to 45, that new map looks way more shaky. Democrats wouldn’t lose obviously, but the margin matters.
We’ve already had 2 actors become Governor of California, so why not a billionaire? It’s worked out great in Illinois for us. Tangent since it’s the weekend: Do you think billionaire Democrats try to be more left wing because they’re a billionaire who already gets distrust from our party base just by being one? It feels like those Democrats who want to actually win *side eyes Michael Bloomberg*, kind of just become really left wing, maybe more than they personally are ideologically in order to gain trust from our party voters.
I suspect most ultra-wealthy people's ideologies aren't changed at that level from what their life experience would have brought them to otherwise. There's a certain requirement for extreme self-interest to become a billionaire, which results in them being more often conservative or moderate. But ultimately being a billionaire means someone can be themselves as much as they like without worry about consequences; they have enough wealth and power that they're going to be surrounded by yes men that encourage their default preferences.
In that light, I suspect people like Pritzker and Steyer aren't faking it for electoral purposes.
I don’t think they’re faking it to get elected to be clear, just that maybe they run their campaigns in a more left way than they probably would ordinarily or most other Democrats would. Pritzker is campaigning on Project 2029 and prosecuting and jailing all of Trump’s government for example. Steyer I haven’t seen his campaign yet, but if he’s getting endorsed by progressives, that to me means he’s running a pretty left campaign that’s gaining traction.
https://x.com/AdamSchiff/status/2042731289430667538
CA-Gov: This warrants its own thread - Sen. Adam Schiff, a powerful California Democrat, rescinds his endorsement of Rep. Eric Swalwell for governor after Swalwell's sexual assault allegations.
I hope Schiff and Gomez and anyone else dropping their endorsements also go one step further and pick someone else to endorse. Ideally with some level of coordination.
Maybe Gomez can endorse Becerra, his direct predecessor in Congress.
Might be worse than no endorsement, hah. Becerra isn't getting to the top two. The party establishment in California needs to accept that the overwhelming likeliest options for a dem that gets to the top two is Porter and Steyer, and they should act accordingly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pm097dF0nos
ME-Sen: A candid criticism of Sen. Susan Collins (R) by challenger Graham Platner, who even admits that he has voted for her in the past.
Not too surprising, considering that Collins did get 68% of the vote in 2014.
Although... I was proudly one of the 32% that year! I knew that Collins would win, but I simply could not stomach voting for a Republican.
And in a fun little bit of irony, the Maine Secretary of State, who will be administering this election, is Shenna Bellows, the Democrat who Collins defeated in 2014.
It certainly seems like you made the right call - Collins has obviously been a Republican lapdog and Shenna Bellows was and is a known progressive.
Yeah, and Bellows has done a great job increasing voter turnout across Maine. Maine was one of only six states where Harris won more votes than Biden, and one of only two (along with Utah) that wasn't a closely divided swing state (the others were GA, NV, NC, and WI). Utah can be explained because its population is growing quickly, but Maine's is not, and yet turnout there still went up compared to 2020.
I think like most Mainer’s they voted for her because Collins was the incumbent and was doing well criss cross campaigning in the state as well as sounding moderate. But now after people have awoken to who Collins really is, they’re like “she’s gotta go”. I also don’t think it helped us that Republican Senator Olympia Snowe who actually was a moderate, was in office and revered for so long.
Voters wrongfully got the impression that the 2 as 2 moderates were perfect to represent Maine’s interests and didn’t pay attention to her actual votes. But her re-election margin has shrunk every cycle as more people wake up to her shtick. You can only fool voters for so long despite voting Republican the same way for your career in a blue state. Eventually people wake up.
I am interested in Kansas Democratic candidates for Governor and for United States Senator.
Yes! More of this!
There was a new Democrat who launched recently who has a good background for KS Senate, but I’m personally still waiting to see if Davids decides to run. She raised more money than Marshall the last quarter, the year is more and more, election after election looking like an epic wipeout for Republicans and she just might be able to become Senator, which would mean 6 years before her next campaign instead of having to run every 2. That’s a pretty enticing opportunity for someone who is ambitious.
If she doesn’t end up running, this guy seems pretty decent at first glance, though I have no idea his ability to fundraise/run a campaign since I don’t think he’s ever been in office before.
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2033967712418816206
Topeka Capital-Journal: Afghanistan veteran Noah Taylor (D) enters U.S. Senate race for Kansas
He cites his military background as a key reason he is against "forever wars" and will fight for Kansans.
https://www.cjonline.com/story/news/state/2026/03/17/afghanistan-veteran-noah-taylor-runs-for-u-s-senate-from-kansas/89184140007/
Opening ad for his campaign:
https://x.com/DisavowTrump20/status/2035719825549402386
Thanks. For my part, I like Sandy Spidel Neumann quite a bit, and have contributed modestly to her campaign. But I too am keeping an eye on Congresswoman Sharice Davids , to whom I have also contributed (equally modestly).
Interested in if Orban actually goes down this time. Would be a huge victory against right populism worldwide if he does
The whole Swalwell scandal is disgraceful. He seemed like one of the more upstanding members of Congress, not a sex pest like the orange gasbag.