This week, as the Blue Wave starts to build, I'm interested in a key question:
What House seat that currently isn't on any pronosticators' radar is most likely to flip from Republican to Democrat?
I'm thinking about this cycle's OK-05 in 2018. There were signs of GOP vulnerability in OKC, but no one took them seriously until right before the election. And even then, Kendra Horn's win was a shock to many.
Going through Cook Political Report's list of "Solid R" seats, a few that jump out at me include the following:
* FL-04: Jacksonville elected a Dem mayor recently, and it's only around Trump +12--less than the average special election swing.
* KY-06: It's a Trump +15 seat, but it voted for Beshear.
* MN-01: There has been some press speculating about the vulnerability of this seat with Klobuchar running at the top of the ticket, but pundits haven't bitten this bait yet.
* MO-02: Always has seemed vulnerable for a flip, and this might be the year.
* Basically any of the NC seats currently rated Safe R: gerrymandering has put all of them under Trump +20, and with Cooper at the top of the ticket, there could be increased Dem enthusiasm overall.
That's not even half of the options, but I'm curious to know: what do others think is the most likely seat to pull an OK-05?
I'm following three big elections this April:
1) The Wisconsin Supreme Court election, on April 7,
2) The Hungarian general election on April 12 (really hoping Hungary finally gets rid of Viktor Orban!),
3) The Virginia redistricting referendum on April 21.
This week, as the Blue Wave starts to build, I'm interested in a key question:
What House seat that currently isn't on any pronosticators' radar is most likely to flip from Republican to Democrat?
I'm thinking about this cycle's OK-05 in 2018. There were signs of GOP vulnerability in OKC, but no one took them seriously until right before the election. And even then, Kendra Horn's win was a shock to many.
Going through Cook Political Report's list of "Solid R" seats, a few that jump out at me include the following:
* FL-04: Jacksonville elected a Dem mayor recently, and it's only around Trump +12--less than the average special election swing.
* KY-06: It's a Trump +15 seat, but it voted for Beshear.
* MN-01: There has been some press speculating about the vulnerability of this seat with Klobuchar running at the top of the ticket, but pundits haven't bitten this bait yet.
* MO-02: Always has seemed vulnerable for a flip, and this might be the year.
* Basically any of the NC seats currently rated Safe R: gerrymandering has put all of them under Trump +20, and with Cooper at the top of the ticket, there could be increased Dem enthusiasm overall.
That's not even half of the options, but I'm curious to know: what do others think is the most likely seat to pull an OK-05?