This week, as the Blue Wave starts to build, I'm interested in a key question:
What House seat that currently isn't on any pronosticators' radar is most likely to flip from Republican to Democrat?
I'm thinking about this cycle's OK-05 in 2018. There were signs of GOP vulnerability in OKC, but no one took them seriously until right before the election. And even then, Kendra Horn's win was a shock to many.
Going through Cook Political Report's list of "Solid R" seats, a few that jump out at me include the following:
* FL-04: Jacksonville elected a Dem mayor recently, and it's only around Trump +12--less than the average special election swing.
* KY-06: It's a Trump +15 seat, but it voted for Beshear.
* MN-01: There has been some press speculating about the vulnerability of this seat with Klobuchar running at the top of the ticket, but pundits haven't bitten this bait yet.
* MO-02: Always has seemed vulnerable for a flip, and this might be the year.
* Basically any of the NC seats currently rated Safe R: gerrymandering has put all of them under Trump +20, and with Cooper at the top of the ticket, there could be increased Dem enthusiasm overall.
That's not even half of the options, but I'm curious to know: what do others think is the most likely seat to pull an OK-05?
“ Here’s a crazy stat: In the first two months of the quarter alone, Talarico’s campaign had already raised more money online — $14.3 million, according to filings from the Democratic payment processor ActBlue — than any Senate candidate in the country raised in an entire quarter in 2025.
He’s on pace, in other words, to lap the rest of field, and is almost certain to post the first $20 million-plus quarter of the cycle (it could be closer to $30 million). “
This week, as the Blue Wave starts to build, I'm interested in a key question:
What House seat that currently isn't on any pronosticators' radar is most likely to flip from Republican to Democrat?
I'm thinking about this cycle's OK-05 in 2018. There were signs of GOP vulnerability in OKC, but no one took them seriously until right before the election. And even then, Kendra Horn's win was a shock to many.
Going through Cook Political Report's list of "Solid R" seats, a few that jump out at me include the following:
* FL-04: Jacksonville elected a Dem mayor recently, and it's only around Trump +12--less than the average special election swing.
* KY-06: It's a Trump +15 seat, but it voted for Beshear.
* MN-01: There has been some press speculating about the vulnerability of this seat with Klobuchar running at the top of the ticket, but pundits haven't bitten this bait yet.
* MO-02: Always has seemed vulnerable for a flip, and this might be the year.
* Basically any of the NC seats currently rated Safe R: gerrymandering has put all of them under Trump +20, and with Cooper at the top of the ticket, there could be increased Dem enthusiasm overall.
That's not even half of the options, but I'm curious to know: what do others think is the most likely seat to pull an OK-05?
TX-Sen: Talarico flooded with cash. Buried nugget:
https://x.com/michaelkruse/status/2040181124362572083
https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/dynamic/render?campaign_id=56&emc=edit_cn_20260403&instance_id=173563&isViewInBrowser=true&nl=on-politics&paid_regi=1&productCode=CN®i_id=308401991&segment_id=217717&sendId=217717&uri=nyt://newsletter/4f7e1cc6-d6e1-57fe-b7c7-81cbfc73c902&user_id=4e510c646abf39a9f1537cc7111f9dc2
“ Here’s a crazy stat: In the first two months of the quarter alone, Talarico’s campaign had already raised more money online — $14.3 million, according to filings from the Democratic payment processor ActBlue — than any Senate candidate in the country raised in an entire quarter in 2025.
He’s on pace, in other words, to lap the rest of field, and is almost certain to post the first $20 million-plus quarter of the cycle (it could be closer to $30 million). “