This week, as the Blue Wave starts to build, I'm interested in a key question:
What House seat that currently isn't on any pronosticators' radar is most likely to flip from Republican to Democrat?
I'm thinking about this cycle's OK-05 in 2018. There were signs of GOP vulnerability in OKC, but no one took them seriously until right before the election. And even then, Kendra Horn's win was a shock to many.
Going through Cook Political Report's list of "Solid R" seats, a few that jump out at me include the following:
* FL-04: Jacksonville elected a Dem mayor recently, and it's only around Trump +12--less than the average special election swing.
* KY-06: It's a Trump +15 seat, but it voted for Beshear.
* MN-01: There has been some press speculating about the vulnerability of this seat with Klobuchar running at the top of the ticket, but pundits haven't bitten this bait yet.
* MO-02: Always has seemed vulnerable for a flip, and this might be the year.
* Basically any of the NC seats currently rated Safe R: gerrymandering has put all of them under Trump +20, and with Cooper at the top of the ticket, there could be increased Dem enthusiasm overall.
That's not even half of the options, but I'm curious to know: what do others think is the most likely seat to pull an OK-05?
AZ-3 - Yassamin Ansari revealed in a Time magazine op-ed that she suffers from extreme pain when she is on her period and, a little over a decade ago, suffered a medical emergency caused by extreme period pain.
It's honestly a miracle that Ansari is able to carry out her duties as a Member of Congress, campaign for elected office (thankfully, she represents a Democratic stronghold and is not in any real danger of losing renomination in a primary), hold town halls and other similar events, and maintain a public presence, all while suffering from debilitating pain every four weeks or so.
I honestly came close to crying after reading Ansari's op-ed.
Around 15% or so of premenopausal women suffer from debilitating period pain (this was the figure Ansari referenced in her op-ed), although that demographic is almost certainly severely underrepresented in elected political office due to the responsibilities and demands of running for and serving in elected office.
This week, as the Blue Wave starts to build, I'm interested in a key question:
What House seat that currently isn't on any pronosticators' radar is most likely to flip from Republican to Democrat?
I'm thinking about this cycle's OK-05 in 2018. There were signs of GOP vulnerability in OKC, but no one took them seriously until right before the election. And even then, Kendra Horn's win was a shock to many.
Going through Cook Political Report's list of "Solid R" seats, a few that jump out at me include the following:
* FL-04: Jacksonville elected a Dem mayor recently, and it's only around Trump +12--less than the average special election swing.
* KY-06: It's a Trump +15 seat, but it voted for Beshear.
* MN-01: There has been some press speculating about the vulnerability of this seat with Klobuchar running at the top of the ticket, but pundits haven't bitten this bait yet.
* MO-02: Always has seemed vulnerable for a flip, and this might be the year.
* Basically any of the NC seats currently rated Safe R: gerrymandering has put all of them under Trump +20, and with Cooper at the top of the ticket, there could be increased Dem enthusiasm overall.
That's not even half of the options, but I'm curious to know: what do others think is the most likely seat to pull an OK-05?
AZ-3 - Yassamin Ansari revealed in a Time magazine op-ed that she suffers from extreme pain when she is on her period and, a little over a decade ago, suffered a medical emergency caused by extreme period pain.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/america-needs-reproductive-health-leave/ar-AA1ZRftq?ocid=BingNewsSerp
It's honestly a miracle that Ansari is able to carry out her duties as a Member of Congress, campaign for elected office (thankfully, she represents a Democratic stronghold and is not in any real danger of losing renomination in a primary), hold town halls and other similar events, and maintain a public presence, all while suffering from debilitating pain every four weeks or so.
I honestly came close to crying after reading Ansari's op-ed.
Around 15% or so of premenopausal women suffer from debilitating period pain (this was the figure Ansari referenced in her op-ed), although that demographic is almost certainly severely underrepresented in elected political office due to the responsibilities and demands of running for and serving in elected office.