Wasn't Hassan also a vice chair of the state party who considered a run against Thanedar? I also know Kumar briefly ran for the open Stevens seat, who was booed at this convention.
I think the message is that Dems ran a candidate who is probably below replacement level in an upscale suburban district, and still ran 11 points ahead of their 2024 baseline.
I don't think the primary result means that much, it was basically a function of one mainstream Dem kneecapping another.
Why does anyone think he cares greatly about this? He's a corrupt, destructive man. He will not actively commit homicide, just continue his unconstitutional project as he sees fit, using whatever specious reasoning suits him at any given time.
I do not like Mahan but he did meet the polling requirement (5% in Emerson). ("A candidate must have received at least 5 percent in the ballot test poll question (i.e., who do you plan to vote for?) that includes all party aligned candidates on the ballot in a primary election . . .")
I seriously think we’re creeping back to top-two lockout territory. Hilton strangely hasn’t really pulled away despite the Trump endorsement, and it seems like Swalwell’s support isn’t going to the other 2 frontrunners (Steyer and Porter) and instead lifting up Becerra and Mahan to their tier. Pre-scandal it certainly seemed like Swalwell was separating from the other Dems. Now we could be looking at 19-16 for the 2 Reps and 15-14-13-12 for these Dems.
With anyone but Newsom as Governor that should be possible. He’s been vehemently anti-RCV for years. Probably because he wouldn’t have become governor with it in place.
I don’t see why it’s too late for Turek to win in Iowa. There hasn’t been any independent polling and Turek’s allies have had the airwaves to themselves.
For Kansas, would love Laura Kelly to change her mind, but alas. I think she would have a real shot in the year it’s shaping up as.
I'm okay without having another 76 year old, 22 year elected official in federal office as a freshman Senator. And she has stated repeatedly that she is done with politics. Besides, state wins only sometimes translate to federal wins - take Larry Hogan's failed Senate bid, or even Pat McCrory's Senate run.
Usually I’d agree, but when she’s probably the only one that can win, and at such a critical moment in our national history with a tyrannical president, I’m for throwing everything we possibly can at the wall to see what sticks. This is different from Maine where we don’t need a 70+ year old governor to win.
I also know she has said no. People change their minds. I think it’s worth seeing whether an appeal of duty to country could motivate her to take a swing at it.
Amen. Being in the Senate sucks and I think she's taken enough hard campaigns for the team. I also feel like it helps our chances of holding the Governor's mansion if there aren't a ton of ads running attacking her tenure and dragging down her popularity. Unlike LA last cycle and KY next cycle, I haven't given up hope on us winning KS gov.
I'm kinda surprised and disappointed at the lack of any visible candidate, let alone fundraising reports for KS-02. It's a reach district sure, but if ever there was a time to target reach districts, now's that damn time. Plus, Kelly won the 2nd in both of her governor elections, even in 2022 which was a year Democrats still lost. Paul Davis came within less than a point of winning here in 2018, which is arguably thus far proving to be less blue leaning than 2026 seems to potentially be. Aside from a disappointing 2024, Democrats have consistently been able to win at least 40% in the 2nd so hopefully someone credible runs here and doesn't squander the opportunity.
Yes! This is precisely the point. And it's not just about winning, but building a grassroots network and creating more visibility and credibility in all areas, including those Democrats are weaker in. Also mind you that Laura Kelly still managed to win KS-02 in 2022 post redistricting and in a GOP leaning midterm year. So this district is still very much a seat worth contesting, even if it's a longshot.
I know that the two years are very different, but 1974 was so bad for Republicans that they were losing seats, outside of the South, where Nixon had gotten as much as 74-76% of the vote (the IN-6 of the time, now the 5th district), and if you throw in Oklahoma, a Republican by the name of Happy Camp was defeated for reelection in a 79% Nixon district. If things get bad enough for them, it’s possible that districts that voted for the felon by 20 points could be vulnerable. Also, some districts that voted for President Obama by 20 points in 2008 probably flipped in 2010. The Syracuse district is probably one of them
When I saw Markey and Moulton's fundraising last quarter I started to get a bit worried. This quarter only cements that.
I'd still expect Markey is favored, but I would have assumed he was safe before. I agree it's more likely than most people think, even if it's still not outright likely. I have no idea why Markey is being so lazy here.
He should have stepped aside for Pressley or someone else he favored.
If Moulton wins the Senate race, I suspect he may get a left-wing challenge the next time he's up anyway. He's despised among progressives.
I do worry that him winning would validate the anti-trans people in the Dems -- he was one of the people who started this shit and the media will pounce on it as vindication. I sincerely hope not.
I hope you're right on the former, but I'm less optimistic. I think if Moulton somehow wins that we'll be stuck with him for a while. Unless he self-sabotages. He'll either get no serious challengers or a clown car of too many challengers.
It will be like Auchincloss winning the 2020 primary to replace Kennedy. Everyone expected him to see serious challenges going forward because the primary electorate was majority progressive. Instead, he's only facing his first primary opponent since 2020 this year.
I'd fear we would see the same with Moulton. Hopefully we never find out because Markey wins.
How is it lazy to raise 811k? Moulton's outpaced him by about 200k? Definitely not small potatoes, but I mean, compare what Craig is outpacing Flanagan by.
I believe you are right where it comes to my home state of Kansas. Our legislature went home for the year without gerrymandering Congresswoman Davids into a corner. So I feel it is very unlikely she will tee it up against the dastardly Roger Marshall. I really like Sandy Sidel Neumann. But there is something to be said for each of the Democratic aspirants. But a bushel basket full of cash is not what can be said for any one of them.
On Risch, according to Wikipedia, he was renominated to his seat in the Idaho Senate in 2000 by 51 votes. That was likely the closest race he’s ever had.
Also according to Wikipedia, he was actually defeated for reelection to the Senate in 1988. Not that it matters now, but he has actually lost. By the way, that loss to a Democrat actually helped the Democrats get to a tie in the state senate after 1990, I believe.
Another week, another great result. On my horizon:
April 21–VA redistricting
May 5–Michigan state senate special; Ohio primary turnout to see if D>R trend continues
May 19–Georgia Supreme Court; GA D Gov; hoping for runoffs for Rs in both gubernatorial and Senate race; see if our primary turnout is much higher than Republican turnout
May 26–TX runoff: praying 🙏 for Paxton; D AG; D LG
I'm not convinced Abbott is weaker than Paxton. He does not seem to inspire any of their base, and he is not anywhere near moderate enough to attract crossover from dems or indies.
As usual, I'm watching many, many races for office. In an unusual move, to limit myself to 5, I decided to use a spin-the-wheel website to do literally just that to pick 5 out of a number of races I'm watching.
Spinning the wheel netted me:
- NY-AD-38: Following up from my comment on today's Morning Digest. Rajkumar seems to be getting desperate, and I've heard a lot of DSA are in this district. Is a primary loss brewing? Or is Rajkumar in better shape than anticipated?
- MN-Sen: Peggy Flanagan's fundraising isn't so great, yet she's leading in polls and (if a video of Angie Craig getting grilled by constituents on ICE I saw is any indication) voter enthusiasm. Will it be enough for her to win?
- CO-3: Recently, one of the election ratings outlets (Cook?) moved this from Likely R to Solid R. Was this wise? Do we truly have less of a shot? How are our candidates? This isn't striking me as a WI-1-type situation personally.
- NV-Gov: How is Aaron Ford doing? I've heard the Trump-induced tourism heat death has battered Las Vegas. That being said, the NV Dems are in bad shape, having never really recovered from the DSA vs. centrist internal battle and having failed to front any NV-SC candidates. Do we still have a shot?
- NC-Sen: I think a lot of people are watching this one. Cooper is polling amazingly -- but will it translate into votes? Will he also help other Dems on the ballot?
I think Cooper will help other Dems on the ballot, like incumbent state Supreme Court justice Anita Earls (he and Earls are campaigning together this year as much as possible). Anderson Clayton did the legwork and helped voters get Justice Riggs over the line in 2024.
With a D leaning environment, hopefully Earls wins reelection by a point or more since there won’t be two GOP candidates splitting the vote like in 2018.
The CO-03 rating shift was ill-advised. They moved it because Hurd managed to secure Trump's endorsement, seemingly closing the door on a rightwinger primarying him out. But at the last moment he did end up pulling a primary challenge anyway. Regardless, Hurd won by just 5 points in 2024, safe GOP in this environment is nuts.
NY-AD-38: Yeah, Rajkumar seems screwed. It might even be an upset to say she would win re-nomination.
MN-Sen: Fundraising, though a good aid and parameter, doesn't make or break a campaign that often, and as you said, voter enthusiasm is clearly on Flanagan's side.
CO-3: I think this race will be around a 3-5 point victory for Hurd, so much lower than current estimates. The two Democrats are corporate oriented establishment types, Dwayne Romero and Alex Keloff, in the same group as two-time nominee Adam Frisch.
NV-Gov: I think Lombardo will probably win re-election - not that I'm a Nevada politico, but he appears popular, while commentary I've seen on Ford skews negative more often than not.
NC-Sen: Cooper has never lost a race, and I wouldn't expect him to start losing now, even at the most pivotal election in his career.
I would like to see some discussion of the various entities purporting to advance Democratic fortunes in the vast field of local races. I am especially interested in officeholders who administer elections in localities. Some among these entities are Run for Something, Boosting Future Leaders Onward, State and Local Elections Alliance, and Contest Every Race. There are probably others. Maybe many others.
Any of these outfits got any kind of a track record? Any showing promise?
Good question. I don't have an answer off the top, but I have a semi-related one:
Why is James Carville endlessly taken out of cold storage and asked for his opinion on, well, anything? It's like it's Groundhog Day since the release of the actual movie (1990 or so) and he's the groundhog.
I think Charles Gaba keeps track of such things but then he has his own organization, so, meh? Who watches the watchers etc
Looking at the fundraising reports, I had forgotten that Van Hilleary was trying to return to Congress. I remember reading a book called The Freshmen, by Linda Killian, in the fall of 1998 as class assignment. If I remember right, Hilleary was featured prominently in the book. Worth checking out.
On the personal side of things, I've been out of a job since the end of last year due to federal cuts to the industry I had been working in. Today I accepted a job offer that will be taking me out of NH and into the Boston area sometime late next month.
Means my vote will unfortunately lose a lot of its impact. It will be mostly only valuable in primaries going forward. But I've wanted to be in the Boston area for a while now so this works out awesome for me on a personal level.
You probably know this but If you're ever in a sticky situation with some locals, defaulting to Yankees Suck will get you out of it. Also appropriate for championship parades regardless of which sport you are celebrating.
Obituaries: Former Republican Rep. David McKinley, a moderate that was my representative from 2011 until his primary defeat in 2022, is dead at 79.
McKinley was a favorite son of his lifetime home of Wheeling, a small industrial Ohio River city that was once the capital of West Virginia. A state delegate and state Republican Party chair, he flipped my district in the northern part of the state in 2010 after now-Republican state Sen. Mike Oliverio (my state senator, who I'll be really happy to see lose in November) primaried Democratic Rep. Alan Mollohan, a scandal-plagued congressman from my hometown of Fairmont. Despite having conservative bonafides, McKinley lost re-nomination in 2022 after the district of former Rep. Alex Mooney in Charleston and the Eastern Panhandle was dismantled.
if you haven't seen the video of magyars appearance on the broadcaster... watch it if you can... he just lays into them right infront of their faces, and essentially says "this entire place is getting shut down",
What is the last date John James could go back to running for Michigan's 10th? Or is that a 0% chance of happening?
James just wants to win statewide so he can run for president but all of his options look pretty bad right now. If he wins the MI Gov primary and loses, he is a 3 time statewide loser who disobeyed Trump. If he loses the MI Gov primary, he is a 3 time loser who disobeyed Trump. If he goes back to running for MI-10 he makes Trump briefly happy but that race is an uphill battle too. What's the best path for his presidential fantasies?
I think it's been pretty clear since his '18 run that John James has a very high opinion of himself, so I'd be shocked if he dropped out of the race. If he loses in either the primary or general, I fully expect him to keep running for office every two years, even if he loses consistently. His ego was inflated too much about all the glowing stories about how he was the next generation of GOP leadership in MI.
There was only about $4,000 spent on ads this week by the entire Democratic field running for Georgia governor compared to $6M on the GOP side. As of right now there are no planned ad reservations by any of the six Democrats running and the primary is in less than a month.
The lack of energy on the Dem side just does not match the fact they have a decent shot at flipping the governorship this year. I wish people had as much interest in these state elections as federal given what we’ve seen with redistricting being decided at the state level.
Esteves was the only one spending on ads before. Maybe he’s gotten to a point where he’s confident in making the runoff? Or he’s holding his fire power for the last couple weeks? I imagine most of them are doing that.
He did not make last week's debate because of not making the polling requirement. (Three candidates made it.) "Atlanta’s NBC affiliate only allowed candidates to participate if they had at least 5% of support “in a professionally conducted, nonpartisan poll released within 120 days of the primary. The station said Esteves failed to reach that threshold. " https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/04/georgia-democrats-take-the-stage-and-play-it-safe-here-are-the-takeaways/
He cannot be sure of making the runoff. He has time and I hope he makes it though.
He got screwed. There’s been scarce polling of this race they literally had to rely on one poll from Emerson that was taken back in February before he started running ads. NBC set a polling criteria but didn’t even bother is conducting their own poll.
According to the article I linked, you certainly aren't alone in that. I know each side of the political divide has members who spout off about leaving the country whilst the other party has power, but there definitely seems to be a rise in American immigrants, both through this act and because of doctors, nurses, scientists and intellectuals fleeing to safer environments.
Yeah, my Dad was one of the "Lost Canadians" who received citizenship automatically in 2009, via my grandmother who was born in Canada in 1915 as a British subject and lost that citizenship by marrying a U.S. citizen. More than a dozen new Canadians automatically in my family as of December 2025 (my Dad's 4 kids by blood, 5 of my first cousins, and a handful of 1st cousins once removed). My Dad did the paperwork to document his and I'm going to get copies from him and apply to document mine when he's back in the U.S. next month.
Funnily enough, my U.S. born grandmother on the other side lived in Alberta for much of her childhood. Her mother is buried there. But nobody on that side was born there AFAIK.
I'll admit i'm a little jealous when people get to go live and work in Europe cuse grandad was born in Italy or whatever. The vast majority of my family has been here since the 1600's so no jaunting off to wherever at least until i have a non-working income, which won't be soon.
Wasn't Hassan also a vice chair of the state party who considered a run against Thanedar? I also know Kumar briefly ran for the open Stevens seat, who was booed at this convention.
Thank you. And of course she's completely right in what she says about them.
I'm not sure there's any big message here, other than "Democratic nominees handily wins Democratic seat in deep blue year..."
I think the message is that Dems ran a candidate who is probably below replacement level in an upscale suburban district, and still ran 11 points ahead of their 2024 baseline.
I don't think the primary result means that much, it was basically a function of one mainstream Dem kneecapping another.
Why does anyone think he cares greatly about this? He's a corrupt, destructive man. He will not actively commit homicide, just continue his unconstitutional project as he sees fit, using whatever specious reasoning suits him at any given time.
I hope Roberts knows before he dies that he’s going to be in the conversation with Taney as the worst Chief Justice in American History.
From moderate to manipulator: Behind the unmasking of Chief Justice John Roberts
https://www.rawstory.com/raw-investigates/john-roberts-moderate/
'Chaos' as Supreme Court justices snap at each other over monumental cases
https://www.rawstory.com/supreme-court-disagreement/
Supreme Court 'private tensions' growing during 'politically explosive' session: report
https://www.rawstory.com/supreme-court-2676761713/
Clarence Thomas hounded by observers for 'manipulation' of role: 'An outright psyop'
https://www.rawstory.com/supreme-court-2676752421/
Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v Wade made the US military draft illegal
https://www.rawstory.com/military-draft/
And my personal favorite.
'Absurd': Chief Justice John Roberts insists judges don't carry out Trump's will
https://www.rawstory.com/john-roberts-trump-agenda/
All their god does is tell them to get rid of their prior precedence and they do.
But that does not mean they do what their god tells them.
Also this one.
Supreme Court justice apologizes to right-wing colleague after 'hurtful' remark
https://www.rawstory.com/sonia-sotomayor-2676748968/
First off they would not apologize to you but what do you expect from someone who said that lgbt clubs could be banned from colleges.
Sotomayor rules university does not need to accept LGBT club
https://www.thecollegefix.com/sotomayor-rules-jewish-university-does-not-need-to-accept-lgbt-club-pending-courtchallenge/
University doesn't have to approve LGBT club, Sotomayor rules
https://www.christianpost.com/news/yeshiva-university-doesnt-have-to-approve-lgbt-club-sotomayor.html
He has always been a faux moderate.
I do not like Mahan but he did meet the polling requirement (5% in Emerson). ("A candidate must have received at least 5 percent in the ballot test poll question (i.e., who do you plan to vote for?) that includes all party aligned candidates on the ballot in a primary election . . .")
https://www.kron4.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2026/03/Nexstar-Debate-Criteria-2025-002.pdf
I seriously think we’re creeping back to top-two lockout territory. Hilton strangely hasn’t really pulled away despite the Trump endorsement, and it seems like Swalwell’s support isn’t going to the other 2 frontrunners (Steyer and Porter) and instead lifting up Becerra and Mahan to their tier. Pre-scandal it certainly seemed like Swalwell was separating from the other Dems. Now we could be looking at 19-16 for the 2 Reps and 15-14-13-12 for these Dems.
We just need to get rid of Top Two once and for all. It seems we worry about this scenario every four years. Let’s just gut it or make it RCV.
With anyone but Newsom as Governor that should be possible. He’s been vehemently anti-RCV for years. Probably because he wouldn’t have become governor with it in place.
A straight up primary would be better than top two
Even just top 4 and then RCV. Most anything is better than top 2.
Absolutely.
So mahan was the reason they cancelled the first debate so why are they allowed back in this one.
apparently he is now almost a billion dollars in debt, and has a negative net worth.
womp womp
The idea of John Hickenlooper and Ed Markey potentially losing in the same cycle is surreal.
Fantastic analysis as always Dragonfire. Good work.
I don’t see why it’s too late for Turek to win in Iowa. There hasn’t been any independent polling and Turek’s allies have had the airwaves to themselves.
For Kansas, would love Laura Kelly to change her mind, but alas. I think she would have a real shot in the year it’s shaping up as.
I'm okay without having another 76 year old, 22 year elected official in federal office as a freshman Senator. And she has stated repeatedly that she is done with politics. Besides, state wins only sometimes translate to federal wins - take Larry Hogan's failed Senate bid, or even Pat McCrory's Senate run.
Usually I’d agree, but when she’s probably the only one that can win, and at such a critical moment in our national history with a tyrannical president, I’m for throwing everything we possibly can at the wall to see what sticks. This is different from Maine where we don’t need a 70+ year old governor to win.
I also know she has said no. People change their minds. I think it’s worth seeing whether an appeal of duty to country could motivate her to take a swing at it.
Amen. Being in the Senate sucks and I think she's taken enough hard campaigns for the team. I also feel like it helps our chances of holding the Governor's mansion if there aren't a ton of ads running attacking her tenure and dragging down her popularity. Unlike LA last cycle and KY next cycle, I haven't given up hope on us winning KS gov.
I agree. I don't think we really have a shot at KS-Sen, but if there's ever a year and a candidate to try it, it's this year and Kelly.
I'm kinda surprised and disappointed at the lack of any visible candidate, let alone fundraising reports for KS-02. It's a reach district sure, but if ever there was a time to target reach districts, now's that damn time. Plus, Kelly won the 2nd in both of her governor elections, even in 2022 which was a year Democrats still lost. Paul Davis came within less than a point of winning here in 2018, which is arguably thus far proving to be less blue leaning than 2026 seems to potentially be. Aside from a disappointing 2024, Democrats have consistently been able to win at least 40% in the 2nd so hopefully someone credible runs here and doesn't squander the opportunity.
Probably, but still worth a shot.
Yes! This is precisely the point. And it's not just about winning, but building a grassroots network and creating more visibility and credibility in all areas, including those Democrats are weaker in. Also mind you that Laura Kelly still managed to win KS-02 in 2022 post redistricting and in a GOP leaning midterm year. So this district is still very much a seat worth contesting, even if it's a longshot.
I think you are right, Michael. This is one that the DCCC should be going for, imo.
I know that the two years are very different, but 1974 was so bad for Republicans that they were losing seats, outside of the South, where Nixon had gotten as much as 74-76% of the vote (the IN-6 of the time, now the 5th district), and if you throw in Oklahoma, a Republican by the name of Happy Camp was defeated for reelection in a 79% Nixon district. If things get bad enough for them, it’s possible that districts that voted for the felon by 20 points could be vulnerable. Also, some districts that voted for President Obama by 20 points in 2008 probably flipped in 2010. The Syracuse district is probably one of them
When I saw Markey and Moulton's fundraising last quarter I started to get a bit worried. This quarter only cements that.
I'd still expect Markey is favored, but I would have assumed he was safe before. I agree it's more likely than most people think, even if it's still not outright likely. I have no idea why Markey is being so lazy here.
He should have stepped aside for Pressley or someone else he favored.
If Moulton wins the Senate race, I suspect he may get a left-wing challenge the next time he's up anyway. He's despised among progressives.
I do worry that him winning would validate the anti-trans people in the Dems -- he was one of the people who started this shit and the media will pounce on it as vindication. I sincerely hope not.
I hope you're right on the former, but I'm less optimistic. I think if Moulton somehow wins that we'll be stuck with him for a while. Unless he self-sabotages. He'll either get no serious challengers or a clown car of too many challengers.
It will be like Auchincloss winning the 2020 primary to replace Kennedy. Everyone expected him to see serious challenges going forward because the primary electorate was majority progressive. Instead, he's only facing his first primary opponent since 2020 this year.
I'd fear we would see the same with Moulton. Hopefully we never find out because Markey wins.
Markey will win comfortably.
How is it lazy to raise 811k? Moulton's outpaced him by about 200k? Definitely not small potatoes, but I mean, compare what Craig is outpacing Flanagan by.
I believe you are right where it comes to my home state of Kansas. Our legislature went home for the year without gerrymandering Congresswoman Davids into a corner. So I feel it is very unlikely she will tee it up against the dastardly Roger Marshall. I really like Sandy Sidel Neumann. But there is something to be said for each of the Democratic aspirants. But a bushel basket full of cash is not what can be said for any one of them.
ME - Collins raised $13m so far this cycle, Platner raised $12m and Mills raised $5m. Pretty clear what’s going to happen.
What do you mean?
To me what is clear is that learned his lesson will lose unless the maine ssc steals the seat again which they are in the process of doing.
Daniel, your last sentence is a bit garbled. Could you edit and clarify?
On Risch, according to Wikipedia, he was renominated to his seat in the Idaho Senate in 2000 by 51 votes. That was likely the closest race he’s ever had.
Also according to Wikipedia, he was actually defeated for reelection to the Senate in 1988. Not that it matters now, but he has actually lost. By the way, that loss to a Democrat actually helped the Democrats get to a tie in the state senate after 1990, I believe.
Another week, another great result. On my horizon:
April 21–VA redistricting
May 5–Michigan state senate special; Ohio primary turnout to see if D>R trend continues
May 19–Georgia Supreme Court; GA D Gov; hoping for runoffs for Rs in both gubernatorial and Senate race; see if our primary turnout is much higher than Republican turnout
May 26–TX runoff: praying 🙏 for Paxton; D AG; D LG
I'm not convinced Abbott is weaker than Paxton. He does not seem to inspire any of their base, and he is not anywhere near moderate enough to attract crossover from dems or indies.
Are you talking about Cornyn, and do you mean you're not convinced he is stronger with a general electorate than Paxton?
Yes. I made a dumb confluence. I meant Cornyn
No problem. I got it.
As usual, I'm watching many, many races for office. In an unusual move, to limit myself to 5, I decided to use a spin-the-wheel website to do literally just that to pick 5 out of a number of races I'm watching.
Spinning the wheel netted me:
- NY-AD-38: Following up from my comment on today's Morning Digest. Rajkumar seems to be getting desperate, and I've heard a lot of DSA are in this district. Is a primary loss brewing? Or is Rajkumar in better shape than anticipated?
- MN-Sen: Peggy Flanagan's fundraising isn't so great, yet she's leading in polls and (if a video of Angie Craig getting grilled by constituents on ICE I saw is any indication) voter enthusiasm. Will it be enough for her to win?
- CO-3: Recently, one of the election ratings outlets (Cook?) moved this from Likely R to Solid R. Was this wise? Do we truly have less of a shot? How are our candidates? This isn't striking me as a WI-1-type situation personally.
- NV-Gov: How is Aaron Ford doing? I've heard the Trump-induced tourism heat death has battered Las Vegas. That being said, the NV Dems are in bad shape, having never really recovered from the DSA vs. centrist internal battle and having failed to front any NV-SC candidates. Do we still have a shot?
- NC-Sen: I think a lot of people are watching this one. Cooper is polling amazingly -- but will it translate into votes? Will he also help other Dems on the ballot?
Thoughts?
I think Cooper will help other Dems on the ballot, like incumbent state Supreme Court justice Anita Earls (he and Earls are campaigning together this year as much as possible). Anderson Clayton did the legwork and helped voters get Justice Riggs over the line in 2024.
With a D leaning environment, hopefully Earls wins reelection by a point or more since there won’t be two GOP candidates splitting the vote like in 2018.
The CO-03 rating shift was ill-advised. They moved it because Hurd managed to secure Trump's endorsement, seemingly closing the door on a rightwinger primarying him out. But at the last moment he did end up pulling a primary challenge anyway. Regardless, Hurd won by just 5 points in 2024, safe GOP in this environment is nuts.
I'd argue that Frisch's massive fundraising advantage and higher name recognition probably explains his 5 point overperformance.
To me that's a tossup or at most tilt R in this environment.
NY-AD-38: Yeah, Rajkumar seems screwed. It might even be an upset to say she would win re-nomination.
MN-Sen: Fundraising, though a good aid and parameter, doesn't make or break a campaign that often, and as you said, voter enthusiasm is clearly on Flanagan's side.
CO-3: I think this race will be around a 3-5 point victory for Hurd, so much lower than current estimates. The two Democrats are corporate oriented establishment types, Dwayne Romero and Alex Keloff, in the same group as two-time nominee Adam Frisch.
NV-Gov: I think Lombardo will probably win re-election - not that I'm a Nevada politico, but he appears popular, while commentary I've seen on Ford skews negative more often than not.
NC-Sen: Cooper has never lost a race, and I wouldn't expect him to start losing now, even at the most pivotal election in his career.
Regarding MN-Sen, Craig was the one who made the first ask for primary debates, and candidates who are more likely to win usually don't do that.
I would like to see some discussion of the various entities purporting to advance Democratic fortunes in the vast field of local races. I am especially interested in officeholders who administer elections in localities. Some among these entities are Run for Something, Boosting Future Leaders Onward, State and Local Elections Alliance, and Contest Every Race. There are probably others. Maybe many others.
Any of these outfits got any kind of a track record? Any showing promise?
Good question. I don't have an answer off the top, but I have a semi-related one:
Why is James Carville endlessly taken out of cold storage and asked for his opinion on, well, anything? It's like it's Groundhog Day since the release of the actual movie (1990 or so) and he's the groundhog.
I think Charles Gaba keeps track of such things but then he has his own organization, so, meh? Who watches the watchers etc
I do think some fresh and rigorous thinking is much needed.
Why?
*He can speak in soundbites.
*He's colorful and gives them usable pull quotes
*The older audiences for broadcast TV and newspapers know who he is.
Looking at the fundraising reports, I had forgotten that Van Hilleary was trying to return to Congress. I remember reading a book called The Freshmen, by Linda Killian, in the fall of 1998 as class assignment. If I remember right, Hilleary was featured prominently in the book. Worth checking out.
There's a decent chance he'll lose that Republican primary to state Rep. Johnny Garrett.
That’s a really great book, all the GOP kooks they profile elected in 1994 would be moderates today.
On the personal side of things, I've been out of a job since the end of last year due to federal cuts to the industry I had been working in. Today I accepted a job offer that will be taking me out of NH and into the Boston area sometime late next month.
Means my vote will unfortunately lose a lot of its impact. It will be mostly only valuable in primaries going forward. But I've wanted to be in the Boston area for a while now so this works out awesome for me on a personal level.
congrats on getting hired. In this market, that's an achievment.
Congratulations! Boston is a great city, and you can still visit New Hampshire on weekends.
Congrats on the new job! Much bigger win for you than the marginal impact one vote will have in a more competitive state.
You probably know this but If you're ever in a sticky situation with some locals, defaulting to Yankees Suck will get you out of it. Also appropriate for championship parades regardless of which sport you are celebrating.
Congrats on the new job!
https://rollcall.com/2026/04/17/former-house-member-david-mckinley-dies-at-79/
Obituaries: Former Republican Rep. David McKinley, a moderate that was my representative from 2011 until his primary defeat in 2022, is dead at 79.
McKinley was a favorite son of his lifetime home of Wheeling, a small industrial Ohio River city that was once the capital of West Virginia. A state delegate and state Republican Party chair, he flipped my district in the northern part of the state in 2010 after now-Republican state Sen. Mike Oliverio (my state senator, who I'll be really happy to see lose in November) primaried Democratic Rep. Alan Mollohan, a scandal-plagued congressman from my hometown of Fairmont. Despite having conservative bonafides, McKinley lost re-nomination in 2022 after the district of former Rep. Alex Mooney in Charleston and the Eastern Panhandle was dismantled.
And now McKinley is dead and Cawthorn could make a triumphant return to Congress. You win some, you lose some.
Hungary: Magyar's party up to 140 seats after recounts (UPDATE: now 141 seats):
https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos
I also learned this week that he was banned from TV by Orban and only made his debut on air after winning.
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/kim-lane-scheppele-on-hungary
I finally got a chance to read this fantastic interview. Everyone who can devote the time should read it. You'll learn a lot.
if you haven't seen the video of magyars appearance on the broadcaster... watch it if you can... he just lays into them right infront of their faces, and essentially says "this entire place is getting shut down",
What is the last date John James could go back to running for Michigan's 10th? Or is that a 0% chance of happening?
James just wants to win statewide so he can run for president but all of his options look pretty bad right now. If he wins the MI Gov primary and loses, he is a 3 time statewide loser who disobeyed Trump. If he loses the MI Gov primary, he is a 3 time loser who disobeyed Trump. If he goes back to running for MI-10 he makes Trump briefly happy but that race is an uphill battle too. What's the best path for his presidential fantasies?
And he would need to get signatures too right?
Perhaps president of the local garden club?
After what we learned about Detroit area garden clubs last year, John James should probably steer clear of them:
See Grosse Pointe Garden Society:
https://m.imdb.com/title/tt26748764/
This is probably the winner for this week's obscure reference contest. 😁
What they should really be worried about is morose international assassins coming back to town for their 40th high school reunion
John Cusack helped stop Cyrus “The Virus” Grissom from escaping after he and the other cons hijacked that prisoner transport plane, give him a break!
If he has presidential fantasies he would have to be a statewide winner. But it doesn’t seem like it’s in the cards.
I think it's been pretty clear since his '18 run that John James has a very high opinion of himself, so I'd be shocked if he dropped out of the race. If he loses in either the primary or general, I fully expect him to keep running for office every two years, even if he loses consistently. His ego was inflated too much about all the glowing stories about how he was the next generation of GOP leadership in MI.
https://x.com/bluestein/status/2043863806154031506?s=61&t=ur470cc8I-pVBsEowCJVTg
There was only about $4,000 spent on ads this week by the entire Democratic field running for Georgia governor compared to $6M on the GOP side. As of right now there are no planned ad reservations by any of the six Democrats running and the primary is in less than a month.
The lack of energy on the Dem side just does not match the fact they have a decent shot at flipping the governorship this year. I wish people had as much interest in these state elections as federal given what we’ve seen with redistricting being decided at the state level.
Maybe they're waiting for the primary to be over, given how many candidates are running? Agreed that we should really be running more ads though.
Esteves was the only one spending on ads before. Maybe he’s gotten to a point where he’s confident in making the runoff? Or he’s holding his fire power for the last couple weeks? I imagine most of them are doing that.
He did not make last week's debate because of not making the polling requirement. (Three candidates made it.) "Atlanta’s NBC affiliate only allowed candidates to participate if they had at least 5% of support “in a professionally conducted, nonpartisan poll released within 120 days of the primary. The station said Esteves failed to reach that threshold. " https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/04/georgia-democrats-take-the-stage-and-play-it-safe-here-are-the-takeaways/
He cannot be sure of making the runoff. He has time and I hope he makes it though.
He got screwed. There’s been scarce polling of this race they literally had to rely on one poll from Emerson that was taken back in February before he started running ads. NBC set a polling criteria but didn’t even bother is conducting their own poll.
Yes, that February poll is basically useless now. He’s been the only Dem running ads the past month.
While your Supreme Court is debating the birthright citizenship case, our Parliament passed a law a few weeks ago that may allow some of you to claim Canadian citizenship. Wondering if anyone here might qualify or be interested in investigating it: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/bill-c-3-canadian-citizenship-by-descent-american-interest-9.7112724
While flattered, I'm already spoken for ;)
Already looking at it.
According to the article I linked, you certainly aren't alone in that. I know each side of the political divide has members who spout off about leaving the country whilst the other party has power, but there definitely seems to be a rise in American immigrants, both through this act and because of doctors, nurses, scientists and intellectuals fleeing to safer environments.
Lots of people have at least some Franco/Quebecois ancestry with how big that diaspora was in New England and the Midwest, which helps
I wish you would extend it to siblings of Canadian citizens and not just descendants.
I'd love to move to Montreal, and I speak French pretty well. But I'd also love pie in the sky. :-)
moi aussi, on both counts. Plus you can't beat Montreal as a hockey city...
Yes. Too bad about the Expos baseball team, though.
That's great! Sadly, I believe I don't qualify: no direct ancestors from Canada.
Yeah, my Dad was one of the "Lost Canadians" who received citizenship automatically in 2009, via my grandmother who was born in Canada in 1915 as a British subject and lost that citizenship by marrying a U.S. citizen. More than a dozen new Canadians automatically in my family as of December 2025 (my Dad's 4 kids by blood, 5 of my first cousins, and a handful of 1st cousins once removed). My Dad did the paperwork to document his and I'm going to get copies from him and apply to document mine when he's back in the U.S. next month.
Funnily enough, my U.S. born grandmother on the other side lived in Alberta for much of her childhood. Her mother is buried there. But nobody on that side was born there AFAIK.
I'll admit i'm a little jealous when people get to go live and work in Europe cuse grandad was born in Italy or whatever. The vast majority of my family has been here since the 1600's so no jaunting off to wherever at least until i have a non-working income, which won't be soon.