Another week, another great result. On my horizon:
April 21–VA redistricting
May 5–Michigan state senate special; Ohio primary turnout to see if D>R trend continues
May 19–Georgia Supreme Court; GA D Gov; hoping for runoffs for Rs in both gubernatorial and Senate race; see if our primary turnout is much higher than Republican turnout
May 26–TX runoff: praying 🙏 for Paxton; D AG; D LG
I'm not convinced Abbott is weaker than Paxton. He does not seem to inspire any of their base, and he is not anywhere near moderate enough to attract crossover from dems or indies.
As usual, I'm watching many, many races for office. In an unusual move, to limit myself to 5, I decided to use a spin-the-wheel website to do literally just that to pick 5 out of a number of races I'm watching.
Spinning the wheel netted me:
- NY-AD-38: Following up from my comment on today's Morning Digest. Rajkumar seems to be getting desperate, and I've heard a lot of DSA are in this district. Is a primary loss brewing? Or is Rajkumar in better shape than anticipated?
- MN-Sen: Peggy Flanagan's fundraising isn't so great, yet she's leading in polls and (if a video of Angie Craig getting grilled by constituents on ICE I saw is any indication) voter enthusiasm. Will it be enough for her to win?
- CO-3: Recently, one of the election ratings outlets (Cook?) moved this from Likely R to Solid R. Was this wise? Do we truly have less of a shot? How are our candidates? This isn't striking me as a WI-1-type situation personally.
- NV-Gov: How is Aaron Ford doing? I've heard the Trump-induced tourism heat death has battered Las Vegas. That being said, the NV Dems are in bad shape, having never really recovered from the DSA vs. centrist internal battle and having failed to front any NV-SC candidates. Do we still have a shot?
- NC-Sen: I think a lot of people are watching this one. Cooper is polling amazingly -- but will it translate into votes? Will he also help other Dems on the ballot?
I think Cooper will help other Dems on the ballot, like incumbent state Supreme Court justice Anita Earls (he and Earls are campaigning together this year as much as possible). Anderson Clayton did the legwork and helped voters get Justice Riggs over the line in 2024.
With a D leaning environment, hopefully Earls wins reelection by a point or more since there won’t be two GOP candidates splitting the vote like in 2018.
The CO-03 rating shift was ill-advised. They moved it because Hurd managed to secure Trump's endorsement, seemingly closing the door on a rightwinger primarying him out. But at the last moment he did end up pulling a primary challenge anyway. Regardless, Hurd won by just 5 points in 2024, safe GOP in this environment is nuts.
My unsubstantiated opinion/guess is that I think there was a small chunk of voters in CO-03 who were so put off by Boebert they punished the GOP as a whole, or thought Boebert was still running in the district.
It’s more my spidey sense, than anything else concrete, but a Trump +8 district shouldn’t have been that close considering how the other Trump district Republicans performed on the same ticket and how many seats they won in Harris/bare Trump territory.
Something is/was missing in 2024 results to create that 5 point win in a district that’s still very red, so that’s my hypothesis on why that happened. Maybe Cook had data that showed a voter penalty, so they decided the district was safer than it looks at first glance with Hurd instead and Boebert no longer being on the ballot at any point in the cycle.
That said, regardless of why, I agree with you it shouldn’t be considered safe in this cycle.
NY-AD-38: Yeah, Rajkumar seems screwed. It might even be an upset to say she would win re-nomination.
MN-Sen: Fundraising, though a good aid and parameter, doesn't make or break a campaign that often, and as you said, voter enthusiasm is clearly on Flanagan's side.
CO-3: I think this race will be around a 3-5 point victory for Hurd, so much lower than current estimates. The two Democrats are corporate oriented establishment types, Dwayne Romero and Alex Keloff, in the same group as two-time nominee Adam Frisch.
NV-Gov: I think Lombardo will probably win re-election - not that I'm a Nevada politico, but he appears popular, while commentary I've seen on Ford skews negative more often than not.
NC-Sen: Cooper has never lost a race, and I wouldn't expect him to start losing now, even at the most pivotal election in his career.
I’d also add that in special elections, almost every single Democrat who won their race was badly outraised by the Republican. Harris also outraised Trump and lost. Money can only do so much when voters want something other than what a party is offering in a candidate.
I would like to see some discussion of the various entities purporting to advance Democratic fortunes in the vast field of local races. I am especially interested in officeholders who administer elections in localities. Some among these entities are Run for Something, Boosting Future Leaders Onward, State and Local Elections Alliance, and Contest Every Race. There are probably others. Maybe many others.
Any of these outfits got any kind of a track record? Any showing promise?
Good question. I don't have an answer off the top, but I have a semi-related one:
Why is James Carville endlessly taken out of cold storage and asked for his opinion on, well, anything? It's like it's Groundhog Day since the release of the actual movie (1990 or so) and he's the groundhog.
I think Charles Gaba keeps track of such things but then he has his own organization, so, meh? Who watches the watchers etc
Interesting that they haven't endorsed Pulido, he's the only Blue Dog endorsee that haven't joined. The other double endorsements are: Jasmeet Bains (CA-22), Jamie Ager and Johnny Garcia today, and Rebecca Cooke (WI-3). McCann and Molder are the first caucus endorsements in those districts, but both are on the DCCC's Red to Blue list.
Looking at the fundraising reports, I had forgotten that Van Hilleary was trying to return to Congress. I remember reading a book called The Freshmen, by Linda Killian, in the fall of 1998 as class assignment. If I remember right, Hilleary was featured prominently in the book. Worth checking out.
Things that stand out to me from the latest fundraising reports:
Senate
CO - Gonzales with a pretty pedantry quarter. Hickenlooper will obviously raise more cash then her, however, I don’t think we should be surprised if she holds him to the 60’s in the primary, which would be a pathetic showing for a longtime statewide elected official.
IA - The primary may be too late for Turek to win (tbd on that), however, I do think it’s notable that he outraised Wahls in the latest quarter, when in Q4 Wahls actually led. Not by huge numbers, but it perhaps suggests some amount of momentum for Turek. That said, it’s minuscule amounts of cash raised difference, so take fwiw to you.
🔵 2025 Q4 Wahls $739k
🔵 2025 Q4 Turek $672k
🔵 2026 Q1 Turek $1.12
🔵 2026 Q1 Wahls $1.119
ID - Won’t mean anything, but Achilles running as an I is raising credible sums, so don’t be surprised if the incumbent Republican faces his closest race ever as a Republican Senator (which again means like a 20-30 point loss here, it’s not in play).
⚪️ Achilles Q1 $192k
🔴 Risch Q1 $290k
KS - A mess of a primary, no candidate is raising what’s needed to put this seat in play. Even put together their fundraising is very weak for Democrats. I still think our best shot is with the moderate incumbent congresswoman Sharice Davids, but even she would likely face a 5-10 point loss. KS is very red federally, but open to Democrats in state government. If she doesn’t run, pretty close to taking it off the board barring some candidate’s campaign catching fire with voters there on a local issue.
MA - Markey is not taking his race as seriously as he did when Joe Kennedy ran and he has a way more likely chance of losing than most here want to admit. I’m very worried here, very.
ME - Collins raised $13m so far this cycle, Platner raised $12m and Mills raised $5m. Pretty clear what’s going to happen.
MI - Mallory FINALLY breaks away from the rest of the pack based on a huge number of grassroots small dollar donors. Her campaign choosing a lane between El-Sayed and Stevens looks to be gaining momentum, which is great to see.
MS - Colom almost outraising Hyde-Smith. That was one I definitely didn’t have on my bingo card. It would be amazing to elect a black Democrat to MS, but with white voters refusing to budge from Republicans federally and the racist attitudes still prevalent among rural folk, put me down in the he won’t win camp.
🔵 Colom $596k
🔴 Hyde-Smith $633k
Overall: Our Democratic nominees in competitive races are raising semi trailers of cash, but that’s going to be needed with the Half Bil+ the GOP has to spend in the midterms from Super PAC’s and national groups. Last note, or, rather, reaction: Lol Talarico, he’s literally Beto on steroids. It’s ludicrous how much he’s raising (which to all those lurkers out there, maybe pick another campaign to donate to if you want Democrats to win a Senate Majority).
That’s all for now, I will do the House when I have some time to go through in a separate post. Happy weekend all!
Yeah, it seems absolutely bizarre for someone to possibly lose to a progressive and someone else to possibly lose to a moderate in the same cycle, until you realize the same problem is why both Markey and Hickenlooper aren’t winning their primaries by massive margins.
A past time Democrat who isn’t realizing our party base wants fighters who look and feel like they will beat the crap out of Trump and Republicans that won’t shy away from controversial issues and will own their position loudly and proudly. If either of those 2 aspects are amiss for any incumbent or front runner, our voter base will not all come on board for a candidate regardless of anything else.
The former problem is what dogs Markey’s campaign because he’s too old in a time of extremely high age concerns among Democrats and the latter is what dogs the Hickenlooper campaign because he’s all about working with Republicans to get things done with messaging that worked in the 2018 era, but is no longer persuasive for 2026.
This is also why Mills is DOA in her primary and Craig despite swamping Flanagan’s campaign in fundraising, is behind her in voter support in the state. This through line has been pretty consistent, from NC-04 to primary polling, which tells me it’s a common pattern likely to repeat again in the primaries to come.
I don’t see why it’s too late for Turek to win in Iowa. There hasn’t been any independent polling and Turek’s allies have had the airwaves to themselves.
For Kansas, would love Laura Kelly to change her mind, but alas. I think she would have a real shot in the year it’s shaping up as.
I agree, but the conventional sentiment is that Turek started his campaign too late, while Wahls got almost all of the crucial labour groups backing. Not saying I agree with the sentiment, because I don’t, but since there’ve been 2 polls showing Wahls with above a majority of the vote in the Democratic primary, I think it’s entirely reasonable for people to believe that even if I and you don’t.
Both Democratic campaigns have enough money to run full fledged statewide campaigns in Iowa, so it’s up to the voters mostly now.
I'm okay without having another 76 year old, 22 year elected official in federal office as a freshman Senator. And she has stated repeatedly that she is done with politics. Besides, state wins only sometimes translate to federal wins - take Larry Hogan's failed Senate bid, or even Pat McCrory's Senate run.
Usually I’d agree, but when she’s probably the only one that can win, and at such a critical moment in our national history with a tyrannical president, I’m for throwing everything we possibly can at the wall to see what sticks. This is different from Maine where we don’t need a 70+ year old governor to win.
I also know she has said no. People change their minds. I think it’s worth seeing whether an appeal of duty to country could motivate her to take a swing at it.
You’re definitely right that Kelly would put this in play almost immediately, as a 1 term capstone to an extremely successful political career, but the amount of times she’s said no, that she’s done entirely with politics, makes me believe she actually means it, which is fair!
Not everyone wants to do politics for their entire lives and Kelly wasn’t even all that gung-ho on running for Governor in the first place in 2018 and again for re-election in 2022. So she’s done a lot and the KS Supreme Court is now a Democratic Majority because of her sacrifices to run.
We’ve got 10-20 years of blocking MAGA state policy in a red state because of her and her alone. She’s done enough imo for our party/the state and deserves to enjoy her well earned retirement.
Amen. Being in the Senate sucks and I think she's taken enough hard campaigns for the team. I also feel like it helps our chances of holding the Governor's mansion if there aren't a ton of ads running attacking her tenure and dragging down her popularity. Unlike LA last cycle and KY next cycle, I haven't given up hope on us winning KS gov.
I'm kinda surprised and disappointed at the lack of any visible candidate, let alone fundraising reports for KS-02. It's a reach district sure, but if ever there was a time to target reach districts, now's that damn time. Plus, Kelly won the 2nd in both of her governor elections, even in 2022 which was a year Democrats still lost. Paul Davis came within less than a point of winning here in 2018, which is arguably thus far proving to be less blue leaning than 2026 seems to potentially be. Aside from a disappointing 2024, Democrats have consistently been able to win at least 40% in the 2nd so hopefully someone credible runs here and doesn't squander the opportunity.
KS-02 got significantly more conservative in redistricting. The strongly liberal college town of Lawrence was removed and added to the 1st, which is still heavily Republican. Manhattan, another college town, was also removed.
KS-02 voted for Trump by 20%. That's probably a little bit too much even for a year like this.
Yes! This is precisely the point. And it's not just about winning, but building a grassroots network and creating more visibility and credibility in all areas, including those Democrats are weaker in. Also mind you that Laura Kelly still managed to win KS-02 in 2022 post redistricting and in a GOP leaning midterm year. So this district is still very much a seat worth contesting, even if it's a longshot.
I know that the two years are very different, but 1974 was so bad for Republicans that they were losing seats, outside of the South, where Nixon had gotten as much as 74-76% of the vote (the IN-6 of the time, now the 5th district), and if you throw in Oklahoma, a Republican by the name of Happy Camp was defeated for reelection in a 79% Nixon district. If things get bad enough for them, it’s possible that districts that voted for the felon by 20 points could be vulnerable. Also, some districts that voted for President Obama by 20 points in 2008 probably flipped in 2010. The Syracuse district is probably one of them
I don’t exactly know the boundaries for this seat, but is Wichita still in it? The former Democratic mayor Brandon Whipple, who was beat by a Libertarian in the 2023 election, could be a decent get for Democrats, but he’d still almost certainly lose for the reasons you outlined here. Tough to get a quality Democrat to run in a hopeless congressional race that actually has been elected to office before.
When I saw Markey and Moulton's fundraising last quarter I started to get a bit worried. This quarter only cements that.
I'd still expect Markey is favored, but I would have assumed he was safe before. I agree it's more likely than most people think, even if it's still not outright likely. I have no idea why Markey is being so lazy here.
He should have stepped aside for Pressley or someone else he favored.
If Moulton wins the Senate race, I suspect he may get a left-wing challenge the next time he's up anyway. He's despised among progressives.
I do worry that him winning would validate the anti-trans people in the Dems -- he was one of the people who started this shit and the media will pounce on it as vindication. I sincerely hope not.
I hope you're right on the former, but I'm less optimistic. I think if Moulton somehow wins that we'll be stuck with him for a while. Unless he self-sabotages. He'll either get no serious challengers or a clown car of too many challengers.
It will be like Auchincloss winning the 2020 primary to replace Kennedy. Everyone expected him to see serious challenges going forward because the primary electorate was majority progressive. Instead, he's only facing his first primary opponent since 2020 this year.
I'd fear we would see the same with Moulton. Hopefully we never find out because Markey wins.
The problem is a “too moderate for a deep blue seat” politician looks weak to any progressive (rightfully so to be fair) feeling it’s a pretty easy lift to defeat him, so a ton of candidates all see the same thing and pile into the primary, splitting the anti-incumbent vote and ironically dooming all of the progressives who sense an opening to beat the incumbent.
Oddly enough if Moulton as Senator shows surprising strength among MA voters, it’s more likely he loses a primary because it’s more likely only 1 progressive will want to take on such a huge challenge. The irony cannot be understated here obviously. This problem, which has repeated itself many times, most recently in IL, is exactly why I’m a pro-RCV person for all Democratic primaries.
Our Democratic nominees should all be able to win 50% of our voters, a majority of them in order to represent our party. We would get a lot less troublesome nominees (on the left or right) if this system was used everywhere, but it isn’t, so the left has to consolidate, which they almost never do, because the incumbent or primary leader is viewed as out of touch by our base and makes an easy target for ambitious politicians, in order to win these races.
How is it lazy to raise 811k? Moulton's outpaced him by about 200k? Definitely not small potatoes, but I mean, compare what Craig is outpacing Flanagan by.
I believe you are right where it comes to my home state of Kansas. Our legislature went home for the year without gerrymandering Congresswoman Davids into a corner. So I feel it is very unlikely she will tee it up against the dastardly Roger Marshall. I really like Sandy Sidel Neumann. But there is something to be said for each of the Democratic aspirants. But a bushel basket full of cash is not what can be said for any one of them.
I quite honestly don’t understand what you’re saying here.
As for my post, it’s stating, with a lot of evidence behind it, including fundraising that Platner will win the Democratic Primary. Mills waited wayyy too late to start attacking him, waited wayyy too late to start her campaign and now enough Maine voters have met Platner that no amount of attacks or campaigning can overcome his run, regardless of his past statements/votes whatever reason someone uses.
Maine Democrats have met him and like him, while Mills still has to be Governor and fulfill her duties of office while Platner has no other obligations. It’s why he’s run circles around Mills campaign even with most of his campaign team that walked away after the scandals broke, which would’ve hobbled or ended any other Democratic campaign, especially one with no other elected office experience, in the past.
On Risch, according to Wikipedia, he was renominated to his seat in the Idaho Senate in 2000 by 51 votes. That was likely the closest race he’s ever had.
Also according to Wikipedia, he was actually defeated for reelection to the Senate in 1988. Not that it matters now, but he has actually lost. By the way, that loss to a Democrat actually helped the Democrats get to a tie in the state senate after 1990, I believe.
Yes, I should’ve specified in a general election. I actually didn’t know he was so close to losing a race in his career, even if it was for the GOP primary and for a seat in the state senate, not the Senate seat, but thank you for informing me on something I didn’t know! Always love to learn new things.
EDIT: Also, thanks to you, I found out there was someone who literally ran as a candidate named “Pro-Life” in the 2008 Senate election running as an independent who got 1.34% of the vote that year, or 8,662 votes in the Idaho Senate race, which was actually the first term Risch won with 58% of the vote. The useless facts you can learn about elections are wild lol.
On the personal side of things, I've been out of a job since the end of last year due to federal cuts to the industry I had been working in. Today I accepted a job offer that will be taking me out of NH and into the Boston area sometime late next month.
Means my vote will unfortunately lose a lot of its impact. It will be mostly only valuable in primaries going forward. But I've wanted to be in the Boston area for a while now so this works out awesome for me on a personal level.
You probably know this but If you're ever in a sticky situation with some locals, defaulting to Yankees Suck will get you out of it. Also appropriate for championship parades regardless of which sport you are celebrating.
Obituaries: Former Republican Rep. David McKinley, a moderate that was my representative from 2011 until his primary defeat in 2022, is dead at 79.
McKinley was a favorite son of his lifetime home of Wheeling, a small industrial Ohio River city that was once the capital of West Virginia. A state delegate and state Republican Party chair, he flipped my district in the northern part of the state in 2010 after now-Republican state Sen. Mike Oliverio (my state senator, who I'll be really happy to see lose in November) primaried Democratic Rep. Alan Mollohan, a scandal-plagued congressman from my hometown of Fairmont. Despite having conservative bonafides, McKinley lost re-nomination in 2022 after the district of former Rep. Alex Mooney in Charleston and the Eastern Panhandle was dismantled.
if you haven't seen the video of magyars appearance on the broadcaster... watch it if you can... he just lays into them right infront of their faces, and essentially says "this entire place is getting shut down",
We finally are having a California governor candidate debate next Wednesday night, carried across the state. Hilton, Bianco, Steyer, Becerra, Porter and Mahan made the cut.
This debate will be about 2 weeks before ballots are mailed.
I seriously think we’re creeping back to top-two lockout territory. Hilton strangely hasn’t really pulled away despite the Trump endorsement, and it seems like Swalwell’s support isn’t going to the other 2 frontrunners (Steyer and Porter) and instead lifting up Becerra and Mahan to their tier. Pre-scandal it certainly seemed like Swalwell was separating from the other Dems. Now we could be looking at 19-16 for the 2 Reps and 15-14-13-12 for these Dems.
With anyone but Newsom as Governor that should be possible. He’s been vehemently anti-RCV for years. Probably because he wouldn’t have become governor with it in place.
I do not like Mahan but he did meet the polling requirement (5% in Emerson). ("A candidate must have received at least 5 percent in the ballot test poll question (i.e., who do you plan to vote for?) that includes all party aligned candidates on the ballot in a primary election . . .")
What is the last date John James could go back to running for Michigan's 10th? Or is that a 0% chance of happening?
James just wants to win statewide so he can run for president but all of his options look pretty bad right now. If he wins the MI Gov primary and loses, he is a 3 time statewide loser who disobeyed Trump. If he loses the MI Gov primary, he is a 3 time loser who disobeyed Trump. If he goes back to running for MI-10 he makes Trump briefly happy but that race is an uphill battle too. What's the best path for his presidential fantasies?
I think it's been pretty clear since his '18 run that John James has a very high opinion of himself, so I'd be shocked if he dropped out of the race. If he loses in either the primary or general, I fully expect him to keep running for office every two years, even if he loses consistently. His ego was inflated too much about all the glowing stories about how he was the next generation of GOP leadership in MI.
There was only about $4,000 spent on ads this week by the entire Democratic field running for Georgia governor compared to $6M on the GOP side. As of right now there are no planned ad reservations by any of the six Democrats running and the primary is in less than a month.
The lack of energy on the Dem side just does not match the fact they have a decent shot at flipping the governorship this year. I wish people had as much interest in these state elections as federal given what we’ve seen with redistricting being decided at the state level.
Esteves was the only one spending on ads before. Maybe he’s gotten to a point where he’s confident in making the runoff? Or he’s holding his fire power for the last couple weeks? I imagine most of them are doing that.
He did not make last week's debate because of not making the polling requirement. (Three candidates made it.) "Atlanta’s NBC affiliate only allowed candidates to participate if they had at least 5% of support “in a professionally conducted, nonpartisan poll released within 120 days of the primary. The station said Esteves failed to reach that threshold. " https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/04/georgia-democrats-take-the-stage-and-play-it-safe-here-are-the-takeaways/
He cannot be sure of making the runoff. He has time and I hope he makes it though.
He got screwed. There’s been scarce polling of this race they literally had to rely on one poll from Emerson that was taken back in February before he started running ads. NBC set a polling criteria but didn’t even bother is conducting their own poll.
According to the article I linked, you certainly aren't alone in that. I know each side of the political divide has members who spout off about leaving the country whilst the other party has power, but there definitely seems to be a rise in American immigrants, both through this act and because of doctors, nurses, scientists and intellectuals fleeing to safer environments.
Yeah, my Dad was one of the "Lost Canadians" who received citizenship automatically in 2009, via my grandmother who was born in Canada in 1915 as a British subject and lost that citizenship by marrying a U.S. citizen. More than a dozen new Canadians automatically in my family as of December 2025 (my Dad's 4 kids by blood, 5 of my first cousins, and a handful of 1st cousins once removed). My Dad did the paperwork to document his and I'm going to get copies from him and apply to document mine when he's back in the U.S. next month.
Funnily enough, my U.S. born grandmother on the other side lived in Alberta for much of her childhood. Her mother is buried there. But nobody on that side was born there AFAIK.
I'll admit i'm a little jealous when people get to go live and work in Europe cuse grandad was born in Italy or whatever. The vast majority of my family has been here since the 1600's so no jaunting off to wherever at least until i have a non-working income, which won't be soon.
Not getting into the discussion. It was a legitimate congressional vote and I think it’s fair to point out how they will/have voted. Especially for those who believe Platner will be another Fetterman.
I don’t really care for either of them. Platner is too much of a wild card and Mills is too feckless for these times. But I’ll take the wild card if it’s the only viable option.
I normally wouldn't, because I'd consider him more likely to lose to Collins, but these are not normal times and he probably is actually more likely to beat her this year.
As you said. These aren’t normal times. People aren’t looking for normal candidates. I wish we had better choices but it is what it is. I don’t love the choices we have in California either.
For what it's worth, she seems more than a bit confused about what the vote was about, it wasn't about iron dome weapons, but bulldozers and large bombs. It comes across poorly on her part in terms of competence, but not malicious, aka Fetterman-tier.
I think the core element for the hate and frustration with Fetterman is not isolated to the single banned topic. It's not the primary element at all.
Fetterman is consistently taking an antagonistic approach to our base, and finding the most absurd chances to align with senate republicans on major matters. He opposed the shutdown for ACA subsidies, and opposes the shutdown over DHS/ICE. Supports the tariffs introduced over the last 18 months. Supports Greenland joining the US, even if he didn't state explicit support for military annexation. Opposes war powers resolutions to block military action against Venezuela or Iran.
The pattern there seems to be less ideological than in reveling in our response to his actions, and him choosing high profile cases specifically to deviate from party orthodoxy as a result.
He doesn't just take his stance but frequently ties it with some statement attacking anyone who disagrees with it as some out of touch idiot extremist on the left. He is enjoying how we react. He's not like Manchin or Sinema in that sense but more like Lieberman instead.
The consistency and method of his actions are why he's hated by our party now.
I know that this is not strictly election race related but I just had to post it.
Looks like uncle tom and gorsuch are starting to get their wish.
It looks like new york times v sullivan may be starting to be gotten rid of.
Oddly enough it may be the new york times that gets rid of their own case.
The alabama ssc (yes the same one that ruled that frozen eggs are living breathing children under state law) has ruled that the new york times must give up its confidential informants.
Alabama Supreme Court limits reporter privilege in NY Times lawsuit
Between this and the scrotus saying it is legal to jail journalists and cadet bonespurs threatening that as well I feel that the new york times v sullivan is gone.
'Give it up or go to jail': Trump issues open threat to journalist at White House event - Raw Story
Justice Sonia Sotomayor dissented from the decision to not take the case, calling it a 'grave error.' 'It should be obvious this arrest violated the First Amendment,' she said.
Supreme Court rejects appeal from online citizen journalist over her arrest in Texas
Another week, another great result. On my horizon:
April 21–VA redistricting
May 5–Michigan state senate special; Ohio primary turnout to see if D>R trend continues
May 19–Georgia Supreme Court; GA D Gov; hoping for runoffs for Rs in both gubernatorial and Senate race; see if our primary turnout is much higher than Republican turnout
May 26–TX runoff: praying 🙏 for Paxton; D AG; D LG
I'm not convinced Abbott is weaker than Paxton. He does not seem to inspire any of their base, and he is not anywhere near moderate enough to attract crossover from dems or indies.
Are you talking about Cornyn, and do you mean you're not convinced he is stronger with a general electorate than Paxton?
Yes. I made a dumb confluence. I meant Cornyn
No problem. I got it.
As usual, I'm watching many, many races for office. In an unusual move, to limit myself to 5, I decided to use a spin-the-wheel website to do literally just that to pick 5 out of a number of races I'm watching.
Spinning the wheel netted me:
- NY-AD-38: Following up from my comment on today's Morning Digest. Rajkumar seems to be getting desperate, and I've heard a lot of DSA are in this district. Is a primary loss brewing? Or is Rajkumar in better shape than anticipated?
- MN-Sen: Peggy Flanagan's fundraising isn't so great, yet she's leading in polls and (if a video of Angie Craig getting grilled by constituents on ICE I saw is any indication) voter enthusiasm. Will it be enough for her to win?
- CO-3: Recently, one of the election ratings outlets (Cook?) moved this from Likely R to Solid R. Was this wise? Do we truly have less of a shot? How are our candidates? This isn't striking me as a WI-1-type situation personally.
- NV-Gov: How is Aaron Ford doing? I've heard the Trump-induced tourism heat death has battered Las Vegas. That being said, the NV Dems are in bad shape, having never really recovered from the DSA vs. centrist internal battle and having failed to front any NV-SC candidates. Do we still have a shot?
- NC-Sen: I think a lot of people are watching this one. Cooper is polling amazingly -- but will it translate into votes? Will he also help other Dems on the ballot?
Thoughts?
I think Cooper will help other Dems on the ballot, like incumbent state Supreme Court justice Anita Earls (he and Earls are campaigning together this year as much as possible). Anderson Clayton did the legwork and helped voters get Justice Riggs over the line in 2024.
With a D leaning environment, hopefully Earls wins reelection by a point or more since there won’t be two GOP candidates splitting the vote like in 2018.
The CO-03 rating shift was ill-advised. They moved it because Hurd managed to secure Trump's endorsement, seemingly closing the door on a rightwinger primarying him out. But at the last moment he did end up pulling a primary challenge anyway. Regardless, Hurd won by just 5 points in 2024, safe GOP in this environment is nuts.
My unsubstantiated opinion/guess is that I think there was a small chunk of voters in CO-03 who were so put off by Boebert they punished the GOP as a whole, or thought Boebert was still running in the district.
It’s more my spidey sense, than anything else concrete, but a Trump +8 district shouldn’t have been that close considering how the other Trump district Republicans performed on the same ticket and how many seats they won in Harris/bare Trump territory.
Something is/was missing in 2024 results to create that 5 point win in a district that’s still very red, so that’s my hypothesis on why that happened. Maybe Cook had data that showed a voter penalty, so they decided the district was safer than it looks at first glance with Hurd instead and Boebert no longer being on the ballot at any point in the cycle.
That said, regardless of why, I agree with you it shouldn’t be considered safe in this cycle.
I'd argue that Frisch's massive fundraising advantage and higher name recognition probably explains his 5 point overperformance.
To me that's a tossup or at most tilt R in this environment.
NY-AD-38: Yeah, Rajkumar seems screwed. It might even be an upset to say she would win re-nomination.
MN-Sen: Fundraising, though a good aid and parameter, doesn't make or break a campaign that often, and as you said, voter enthusiasm is clearly on Flanagan's side.
CO-3: I think this race will be around a 3-5 point victory for Hurd, so much lower than current estimates. The two Democrats are corporate oriented establishment types, Dwayne Romero and Alex Keloff, in the same group as two-time nominee Adam Frisch.
NV-Gov: I think Lombardo will probably win re-election - not that I'm a Nevada politico, but he appears popular, while commentary I've seen on Ford skews negative more often than not.
NC-Sen: Cooper has never lost a race, and I wouldn't expect him to start losing now, even at the most pivotal election in his career.
I’d also add that in special elections, almost every single Democrat who won their race was badly outraised by the Republican. Harris also outraised Trump and lost. Money can only do so much when voters want something other than what a party is offering in a candidate.
Regarding MN-Sen, Craig was the one who made the first ask for primary debates, and candidates who are more likely to win usually don't do that.
I would like to see some discussion of the various entities purporting to advance Democratic fortunes in the vast field of local races. I am especially interested in officeholders who administer elections in localities. Some among these entities are Run for Something, Boosting Future Leaders Onward, State and Local Elections Alliance, and Contest Every Race. There are probably others. Maybe many others.
Any of these outfits got any kind of a track record? Any showing promise?
Good question. I don't have an answer off the top, but I have a semi-related one:
Why is James Carville endlessly taken out of cold storage and asked for his opinion on, well, anything? It's like it's Groundhog Day since the release of the actual movie (1990 or so) and he's the groundhog.
I think Charles Gaba keeps track of such things but then he has his own organization, so, meh? Who watches the watchers etc
I do think some fresh and rigorous thinking is much needed.
Why?
*He can speak in soundbites.
*He's colorful and gives them usable pull quotes
*The older audiences for broadcast TV and newspapers know who he is.
More NewDems endorsements:
-Jessica Killin (CO-05)
-Donna Miller (IL-02)
-Sean McCann (MI-04)
-Jamie Ager (NC-11)
-Chaz Molder (TN-05)
-Johnny Garcia (TX-35)
https://newdemactionfund.com/press-releases/2026/4/17/new-dems-endorse-six-candidates-in-colorado-north-carolina-illinois-michigan-tennessee-and-texas
Interesting that they haven't endorsed Pulido, he's the only Blue Dog endorsee that haven't joined. The other double endorsements are: Jasmeet Bains (CA-22), Jamie Ager and Johnny Garcia today, and Rebecca Cooke (WI-3). McCann and Molder are the first caucus endorsements in those districts, but both are on the DCCC's Red to Blue list.
Looking at the fundraising reports, I had forgotten that Van Hilleary was trying to return to Congress. I remember reading a book called The Freshmen, by Linda Killian, in the fall of 1998 as class assignment. If I remember right, Hilleary was featured prominently in the book. Worth checking out.
There's a decent chance he'll lose that Republican primary to state Rep. Johnny Garrett.
That’s a really great book, all the GOP kooks they profile elected in 1994 would be moderates today.
Things that stand out to me from the latest fundraising reports:
Senate
CO - Gonzales with a pretty pedantry quarter. Hickenlooper will obviously raise more cash then her, however, I don’t think we should be surprised if she holds him to the 60’s in the primary, which would be a pathetic showing for a longtime statewide elected official.
IA - The primary may be too late for Turek to win (tbd on that), however, I do think it’s notable that he outraised Wahls in the latest quarter, when in Q4 Wahls actually led. Not by huge numbers, but it perhaps suggests some amount of momentum for Turek. That said, it’s minuscule amounts of cash raised difference, so take fwiw to you.
🔵 2025 Q4 Wahls $739k
🔵 2025 Q4 Turek $672k
🔵 2026 Q1 Turek $1.12
🔵 2026 Q1 Wahls $1.119
ID - Won’t mean anything, but Achilles running as an I is raising credible sums, so don’t be surprised if the incumbent Republican faces his closest race ever as a Republican Senator (which again means like a 20-30 point loss here, it’s not in play).
⚪️ Achilles Q1 $192k
🔴 Risch Q1 $290k
KS - A mess of a primary, no candidate is raising what’s needed to put this seat in play. Even put together their fundraising is very weak for Democrats. I still think our best shot is with the moderate incumbent congresswoman Sharice Davids, but even she would likely face a 5-10 point loss. KS is very red federally, but open to Democrats in state government. If she doesn’t run, pretty close to taking it off the board barring some candidate’s campaign catching fire with voters there on a local issue.
MA - Markey is not taking his race as seriously as he did when Joe Kennedy ran and he has a way more likely chance of losing than most here want to admit. I’m very worried here, very.
ME - Collins raised $13m so far this cycle, Platner raised $12m and Mills raised $5m. Pretty clear what’s going to happen.
MI - Mallory FINALLY breaks away from the rest of the pack based on a huge number of grassroots small dollar donors. Her campaign choosing a lane between El-Sayed and Stevens looks to be gaining momentum, which is great to see.
MS - Colom almost outraising Hyde-Smith. That was one I definitely didn’t have on my bingo card. It would be amazing to elect a black Democrat to MS, but with white voters refusing to budge from Republicans federally and the racist attitudes still prevalent among rural folk, put me down in the he won’t win camp.
🔵 Colom $596k
🔴 Hyde-Smith $633k
Overall: Our Democratic nominees in competitive races are raising semi trailers of cash, but that’s going to be needed with the Half Bil+ the GOP has to spend in the midterms from Super PAC’s and national groups. Last note, or, rather, reaction: Lol Talarico, he’s literally Beto on steroids. It’s ludicrous how much he’s raising (which to all those lurkers out there, maybe pick another campaign to donate to if you want Democrats to win a Senate Majority).
That’s all for now, I will do the House when I have some time to go through in a separate post. Happy weekend all!
The idea of John Hickenlooper and Ed Markey potentially losing in the same cycle is surreal.
Fantastic analysis as always Dragonfire. Good work.
Yeah, it seems absolutely bizarre for someone to possibly lose to a progressive and someone else to possibly lose to a moderate in the same cycle, until you realize the same problem is why both Markey and Hickenlooper aren’t winning their primaries by massive margins.
A past time Democrat who isn’t realizing our party base wants fighters who look and feel like they will beat the crap out of Trump and Republicans that won’t shy away from controversial issues and will own their position loudly and proudly. If either of those 2 aspects are amiss for any incumbent or front runner, our voter base will not all come on board for a candidate regardless of anything else.
The former problem is what dogs Markey’s campaign because he’s too old in a time of extremely high age concerns among Democrats and the latter is what dogs the Hickenlooper campaign because he’s all about working with Republicans to get things done with messaging that worked in the 2018 era, but is no longer persuasive for 2026.
This is also why Mills is DOA in her primary and Craig despite swamping Flanagan’s campaign in fundraising, is behind her in voter support in the state. This through line has been pretty consistent, from NC-04 to primary polling, which tells me it’s a common pattern likely to repeat again in the primaries to come.
I don’t see why it’s too late for Turek to win in Iowa. There hasn’t been any independent polling and Turek’s allies have had the airwaves to themselves.
For Kansas, would love Laura Kelly to change her mind, but alas. I think she would have a real shot in the year it’s shaping up as.
I agree, but the conventional sentiment is that Turek started his campaign too late, while Wahls got almost all of the crucial labour groups backing. Not saying I agree with the sentiment, because I don’t, but since there’ve been 2 polls showing Wahls with above a majority of the vote in the Democratic primary, I think it’s entirely reasonable for people to believe that even if I and you don’t.
Both Democratic campaigns have enough money to run full fledged statewide campaigns in Iowa, so it’s up to the voters mostly now.
I'm okay without having another 76 year old, 22 year elected official in federal office as a freshman Senator. And she has stated repeatedly that she is done with politics. Besides, state wins only sometimes translate to federal wins - take Larry Hogan's failed Senate bid, or even Pat McCrory's Senate run.
Usually I’d agree, but when she’s probably the only one that can win, and at such a critical moment in our national history with a tyrannical president, I’m for throwing everything we possibly can at the wall to see what sticks. This is different from Maine where we don’t need a 70+ year old governor to win.
I also know she has said no. People change their minds. I think it’s worth seeing whether an appeal of duty to country could motivate her to take a swing at it.
You’re definitely right that Kelly would put this in play almost immediately, as a 1 term capstone to an extremely successful political career, but the amount of times she’s said no, that she’s done entirely with politics, makes me believe she actually means it, which is fair!
Not everyone wants to do politics for their entire lives and Kelly wasn’t even all that gung-ho on running for Governor in the first place in 2018 and again for re-election in 2022. So she’s done a lot and the KS Supreme Court is now a Democratic Majority because of her sacrifices to run.
We’ve got 10-20 years of blocking MAGA state policy in a red state because of her and her alone. She’s done enough imo for our party/the state and deserves to enjoy her well earned retirement.
Amen. Being in the Senate sucks and I think she's taken enough hard campaigns for the team. I also feel like it helps our chances of holding the Governor's mansion if there aren't a ton of ads running attacking her tenure and dragging down her popularity. Unlike LA last cycle and KY next cycle, I haven't given up hope on us winning KS gov.
I agree. I don't think we really have a shot at KS-Sen, but if there's ever a year and a candidate to try it, it's this year and Kelly.
I'm kinda surprised and disappointed at the lack of any visible candidate, let alone fundraising reports for KS-02. It's a reach district sure, but if ever there was a time to target reach districts, now's that damn time. Plus, Kelly won the 2nd in both of her governor elections, even in 2022 which was a year Democrats still lost. Paul Davis came within less than a point of winning here in 2018, which is arguably thus far proving to be less blue leaning than 2026 seems to potentially be. Aside from a disappointing 2024, Democrats have consistently been able to win at least 40% in the 2nd so hopefully someone credible runs here and doesn't squander the opportunity.
KS-02 got significantly more conservative in redistricting. The strongly liberal college town of Lawrence was removed and added to the 1st, which is still heavily Republican. Manhattan, another college town, was also removed.
KS-02 voted for Trump by 20%. That's probably a little bit too much even for a year like this.
Probably, but still worth a shot.
Yes! This is precisely the point. And it's not just about winning, but building a grassroots network and creating more visibility and credibility in all areas, including those Democrats are weaker in. Also mind you that Laura Kelly still managed to win KS-02 in 2022 post redistricting and in a GOP leaning midterm year. So this district is still very much a seat worth contesting, even if it's a longshot.
I think you are right, Michael. This is one that the DCCC should be going for, imo.
I know that the two years are very different, but 1974 was so bad for Republicans that they were losing seats, outside of the South, where Nixon had gotten as much as 74-76% of the vote (the IN-6 of the time, now the 5th district), and if you throw in Oklahoma, a Republican by the name of Happy Camp was defeated for reelection in a 79% Nixon district. If things get bad enough for them, it’s possible that districts that voted for the felon by 20 points could be vulnerable. Also, some districts that voted for President Obama by 20 points in 2008 probably flipped in 2010. The Syracuse district is probably one of them
I don’t exactly know the boundaries for this seat, but is Wichita still in it? The former Democratic mayor Brandon Whipple, who was beat by a Libertarian in the 2023 election, could be a decent get for Democrats, but he’d still almost certainly lose for the reasons you outlined here. Tough to get a quality Democrat to run in a hopeless congressional race that actually has been elected to office before.
When I saw Markey and Moulton's fundraising last quarter I started to get a bit worried. This quarter only cements that.
I'd still expect Markey is favored, but I would have assumed he was safe before. I agree it's more likely than most people think, even if it's still not outright likely. I have no idea why Markey is being so lazy here.
He should have stepped aside for Pressley or someone else he favored.
If Moulton wins the Senate race, I suspect he may get a left-wing challenge the next time he's up anyway. He's despised among progressives.
I do worry that him winning would validate the anti-trans people in the Dems -- he was one of the people who started this shit and the media will pounce on it as vindication. I sincerely hope not.
I hope you're right on the former, but I'm less optimistic. I think if Moulton somehow wins that we'll be stuck with him for a while. Unless he self-sabotages. He'll either get no serious challengers or a clown car of too many challengers.
It will be like Auchincloss winning the 2020 primary to replace Kennedy. Everyone expected him to see serious challenges going forward because the primary electorate was majority progressive. Instead, he's only facing his first primary opponent since 2020 this year.
I'd fear we would see the same with Moulton. Hopefully we never find out because Markey wins.
The problem is a “too moderate for a deep blue seat” politician looks weak to any progressive (rightfully so to be fair) feeling it’s a pretty easy lift to defeat him, so a ton of candidates all see the same thing and pile into the primary, splitting the anti-incumbent vote and ironically dooming all of the progressives who sense an opening to beat the incumbent.
Oddly enough if Moulton as Senator shows surprising strength among MA voters, it’s more likely he loses a primary because it’s more likely only 1 progressive will want to take on such a huge challenge. The irony cannot be understated here obviously. This problem, which has repeated itself many times, most recently in IL, is exactly why I’m a pro-RCV person for all Democratic primaries.
Our Democratic nominees should all be able to win 50% of our voters, a majority of them in order to represent our party. We would get a lot less troublesome nominees (on the left or right) if this system was used everywhere, but it isn’t, so the left has to consolidate, which they almost never do, because the incumbent or primary leader is viewed as out of touch by our base and makes an easy target for ambitious politicians, in order to win these races.
Markey will win comfortably.
How is it lazy to raise 811k? Moulton's outpaced him by about 200k? Definitely not small potatoes, but I mean, compare what Craig is outpacing Flanagan by.
I believe you are right where it comes to my home state of Kansas. Our legislature went home for the year without gerrymandering Congresswoman Davids into a corner. So I feel it is very unlikely she will tee it up against the dastardly Roger Marshall. I really like Sandy Sidel Neumann. But there is something to be said for each of the Democratic aspirants. But a bushel basket full of cash is not what can be said for any one of them.
ME - Collins raised $13m so far this cycle, Platner raised $12m and Mills raised $5m. Pretty clear what’s going to happen.
What do you mean?
To me what is clear is that learned his lesson will lose unless the maine ssc steals the seat again which they are in the process of doing.
I quite honestly don’t understand what you’re saying here.
As for my post, it’s stating, with a lot of evidence behind it, including fundraising that Platner will win the Democratic Primary. Mills waited wayyy too late to start attacking him, waited wayyy too late to start her campaign and now enough Maine voters have met Platner that no amount of attacks or campaigning can overcome his run, regardless of his past statements/votes whatever reason someone uses.
Maine Democrats have met him and like him, while Mills still has to be Governor and fulfill her duties of office while Platner has no other obligations. It’s why he’s run circles around Mills campaign even with most of his campaign team that walked away after the scandals broke, which would’ve hobbled or ended any other Democratic campaign, especially one with no other elected office experience, in the past.
Daniel, your last sentence is a bit garbled. Could you edit and clarify?
On Risch, according to Wikipedia, he was renominated to his seat in the Idaho Senate in 2000 by 51 votes. That was likely the closest race he’s ever had.
Also according to Wikipedia, he was actually defeated for reelection to the Senate in 1988. Not that it matters now, but he has actually lost. By the way, that loss to a Democrat actually helped the Democrats get to a tie in the state senate after 1990, I believe.
Yes, I should’ve specified in a general election. I actually didn’t know he was so close to losing a race in his career, even if it was for the GOP primary and for a seat in the state senate, not the Senate seat, but thank you for informing me on something I didn’t know! Always love to learn new things.
EDIT: Also, thanks to you, I found out there was someone who literally ran as a candidate named “Pro-Life” in the 2008 Senate election running as an independent who got 1.34% of the vote that year, or 8,662 votes in the Idaho Senate race, which was actually the first term Risch won with 58% of the vote. The useless facts you can learn about elections are wild lol.
On the personal side of things, I've been out of a job since the end of last year due to federal cuts to the industry I had been working in. Today I accepted a job offer that will be taking me out of NH and into the Boston area sometime late next month.
Means my vote will unfortunately lose a lot of its impact. It will be mostly only valuable in primaries going forward. But I've wanted to be in the Boston area for a while now so this works out awesome for me on a personal level.
I'm sorry to hear that you're leaving New Hampshire! I still hope you enjoy your new job.
That's great news that you've found a new position, and I wish you success in that new position and happiness in your new location.
congrats on getting hired. In this market, that's an achievment.
Congratulations! Boston is a great city, and you can still visit New Hampshire on weekends.
Congrats on the new job! Much bigger win for you than the marginal impact one vote will have in a more competitive state.
You probably know this but If you're ever in a sticky situation with some locals, defaulting to Yankees Suck will get you out of it. Also appropriate for championship parades regardless of which sport you are celebrating.
Congrats on the new job!
https://rollcall.com/2026/04/17/former-house-member-david-mckinley-dies-at-79/
Obituaries: Former Republican Rep. David McKinley, a moderate that was my representative from 2011 until his primary defeat in 2022, is dead at 79.
McKinley was a favorite son of his lifetime home of Wheeling, a small industrial Ohio River city that was once the capital of West Virginia. A state delegate and state Republican Party chair, he flipped my district in the northern part of the state in 2010 after now-Republican state Sen. Mike Oliverio (my state senator, who I'll be really happy to see lose in November) primaried Democratic Rep. Alan Mollohan, a scandal-plagued congressman from my hometown of Fairmont. Despite having conservative bonafides, McKinley lost re-nomination in 2022 after the district of former Rep. Alex Mooney in Charleston and the Eastern Panhandle was dismantled.
Was always sad this twerp played macho on him and won.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/30/cawthorn-mckinley-gop-house-floor-501796
And now McKinley is dead and Cawthorn could make a triumphant return to Congress. You win some, you lose some.
I hope he doesn't but that's such a clusterfuck primary that who knows who'll win lol
Hungary: Magyar's party up to 140 seats after recounts (UPDATE: now 141 seats):
https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos
I also learned this week that he was banned from TV by Orban and only made his debut on air after winning.
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/kim-lane-scheppele-on-hungary
I finally got a chance to read this fantastic interview. Everyone who can devote the time should read it. You'll learn a lot.
if you haven't seen the video of magyars appearance on the broadcaster... watch it if you can... he just lays into them right infront of their faces, and essentially says "this entire place is getting shut down",
This isn't directly political, but funny as hell about a senator we despise:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2026/04/17/texas-hotel-billionaires-set-to-foreclose-on-greenbrier-owner-senator-jim-justice/
It seems Jim Justice could be losing the Greenbrier hotel to foreclosure. Just following in Trump's footsteps.
apparently he is now almost a billion dollars in debt, and has a negative net worth.
womp womp
https://www.kron4.com/news/politics/inside-california-politics/6-candidates-confirmed-for-next-weeks-inside-california-politics-california-governors-debate/amp/
We finally are having a California governor candidate debate next Wednesday night, carried across the state. Hilton, Bianco, Steyer, Becerra, Porter and Mahan made the cut.
This debate will be about 2 weeks before ballots are mailed.
I seriously think we’re creeping back to top-two lockout territory. Hilton strangely hasn’t really pulled away despite the Trump endorsement, and it seems like Swalwell’s support isn’t going to the other 2 frontrunners (Steyer and Porter) and instead lifting up Becerra and Mahan to their tier. Pre-scandal it certainly seemed like Swalwell was separating from the other Dems. Now we could be looking at 19-16 for the 2 Reps and 15-14-13-12 for these Dems.
I still think a top 2 Republican lockout is unlikely with over 20% undecided that is probably voting Democratic and not looking at voting for a loser.
We were having this conversation a couple of weeks ago, and the consensus was we should rally around Swalwell. I'm glad that didn't happen.
I also believe that when people get ballots in hand, support for people who aren't going to be our next governor dries up.
We just need to get rid of Top Two once and for all. It seems we worry about this scenario every four years. Let’s just gut it or make it RCV.
With anyone but Newsom as Governor that should be possible. He’s been vehemently anti-RCV for years. Probably because he wouldn’t have become governor with it in place.
A straight up primary would be better than top two
Even just top 4 and then RCV. Most anything is better than top 2.
Absolutely.
Mahan shouldn't be there. AI money from Silicon Valley shouldn't be enough to get into the debate, and that's basically all Mahan has right now.
The only Dems who should be invited are Steyer, Porter, and Becerra.
I do not like Mahan but he did meet the polling requirement (5% in Emerson). ("A candidate must have received at least 5 percent in the ballot test poll question (i.e., who do you plan to vote for?) that includes all party aligned candidates on the ballot in a primary election . . .")
https://www.kron4.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2026/03/Nexstar-Debate-Criteria-2025-002.pdf
So mahan was the reason they cancelled the first debate so why are they allowed back in this one.
What is the last date John James could go back to running for Michigan's 10th? Or is that a 0% chance of happening?
James just wants to win statewide so he can run for president but all of his options look pretty bad right now. If he wins the MI Gov primary and loses, he is a 3 time statewide loser who disobeyed Trump. If he loses the MI Gov primary, he is a 3 time loser who disobeyed Trump. If he goes back to running for MI-10 he makes Trump briefly happy but that race is an uphill battle too. What's the best path for his presidential fantasies?
Perhaps president of the local garden club?
After what we learned about Detroit area garden clubs last year, John James should probably steer clear of them:
See Grosse Pointe Garden Society:
https://m.imdb.com/title/tt26748764/
This is probably the winner for this week's obscure reference contest. 😁
What they should really be worried about is morose international assassins coming back to town for their 40th high school reunion
John Cusack helped stop Cyrus “The Virus” Grissom from escaping after he and the other cons hijacked that prisoner transport plane, give him a break!
If he has presidential fantasies he would have to be a statewide winner. But it doesn’t seem like it’s in the cards.
Filing deadline is Tues (4/21): https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-2026-election-calendar
And he would need to get signatures too right?
I assume but don't actually know haha.
I think it's been pretty clear since his '18 run that John James has a very high opinion of himself, so I'd be shocked if he dropped out of the race. If he loses in either the primary or general, I fully expect him to keep running for office every two years, even if he loses consistently. His ego was inflated too much about all the glowing stories about how he was the next generation of GOP leadership in MI.
https://x.com/bluestein/status/2043863806154031506?s=61&t=ur470cc8I-pVBsEowCJVTg
There was only about $4,000 spent on ads this week by the entire Democratic field running for Georgia governor compared to $6M on the GOP side. As of right now there are no planned ad reservations by any of the six Democrats running and the primary is in less than a month.
The lack of energy on the Dem side just does not match the fact they have a decent shot at flipping the governorship this year. I wish people had as much interest in these state elections as federal given what we’ve seen with redistricting being decided at the state level.
Maybe they're waiting for the primary to be over, given how many candidates are running? Agreed that we should really be running more ads though.
Esteves was the only one spending on ads before. Maybe he’s gotten to a point where he’s confident in making the runoff? Or he’s holding his fire power for the last couple weeks? I imagine most of them are doing that.
He did not make last week's debate because of not making the polling requirement. (Three candidates made it.) "Atlanta’s NBC affiliate only allowed candidates to participate if they had at least 5% of support “in a professionally conducted, nonpartisan poll released within 120 days of the primary. The station said Esteves failed to reach that threshold. " https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/04/georgia-democrats-take-the-stage-and-play-it-safe-here-are-the-takeaways/
He cannot be sure of making the runoff. He has time and I hope he makes it though.
He got screwed. There’s been scarce polling of this race they literally had to rely on one poll from Emerson that was taken back in February before he started running ads. NBC set a polling criteria but didn’t even bother is conducting their own poll.
Yes, that February poll is basically useless now. He’s been the only Dem running ads the past month.
While your Supreme Court is debating the birthright citizenship case, our Parliament passed a law a few weeks ago that may allow some of you to claim Canadian citizenship. Wondering if anyone here might qualify or be interested in investigating it: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/bill-c-3-canadian-citizenship-by-descent-american-interest-9.7112724
Already looking at it.
According to the article I linked, you certainly aren't alone in that. I know each side of the political divide has members who spout off about leaving the country whilst the other party has power, but there definitely seems to be a rise in American immigrants, both through this act and because of doctors, nurses, scientists and intellectuals fleeing to safer environments.
Lots of people have at least some Franco/Quebecois ancestry with how big that diaspora was in New England and the Midwest, which helps
Or willing to share it by marriage lol
While flattered, I'm already spoken for ;)
You or anyone newly acquiring citizenship lol
I wish you would extend it to siblings of Canadian citizens and not just descendants.
I'd love to move to Montreal, and I speak French pretty well. But I'd also love pie in the sky. :-)
moi aussi, on both counts. Plus you can't beat Montreal as a hockey city...
Yes. Too bad about the Expos baseball team, though.
That's great! Sadly, I believe I don't qualify: no direct ancestors from Canada.
Yeah, my Dad was one of the "Lost Canadians" who received citizenship automatically in 2009, via my grandmother who was born in Canada in 1915 as a British subject and lost that citizenship by marrying a U.S. citizen. More than a dozen new Canadians automatically in my family as of December 2025 (my Dad's 4 kids by blood, 5 of my first cousins, and a handful of 1st cousins once removed). My Dad did the paperwork to document his and I'm going to get copies from him and apply to document mine when he's back in the U.S. next month.
Funnily enough, my U.S. born grandmother on the other side lived in Alberta for much of her childhood. Her mother is buried there. But nobody on that side was born there AFAIK.
I'll admit i'm a little jealous when people get to go live and work in Europe cuse grandad was born in Italy or whatever. The vast majority of my family has been here since the 1600's so no jaunting off to wherever at least until i have a non-working income, which won't be soon.
But what if Platner is another Fetterman?
Janet Mills: Hold my beer.
It’s almost as if she’s trying to lose.
https://www.pressherald.com/2026/04/17/janet-mills-says-she-opposes-attempts-to-stop-funding-israels-defenses/
I will note that I-P-related discussion is not allowed here.
Not getting into the discussion. It was a legitimate congressional vote and I think it’s fair to point out how they will/have voted. Especially for those who believe Platner will be another Fetterman.
Her saying this does not in any way mean he's not sketchy.
I don’t really care for either of them. Platner is too much of a wild card and Mills is too feckless for these times. But I’ll take the wild card if it’s the only viable option.
I normally wouldn't, because I'd consider him more likely to lose to Collins, but these are not normal times and he probably is actually more likely to beat her this year.
As you said. These aren’t normal times. People aren’t looking for normal candidates. I wish we had better choices but it is what it is. I don’t love the choices we have in California either.
Still, I’d err on the side of caution.
Yea she's going to lose, I would drop out if i were her.
Well her ads against planter failed.
Janet Mills' Attack Ad Against Platner Backfires With Maine Democrats
https://crooksandliars.com/2026/03/janet-mills-attack-ad-against-platner
Janet Mills Attack Ad Against Graham Platner Backfires With Maine Democrats
https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/leaked-video-janet-mills-attack-ad-graham-platner-voter-reactions
For what it's worth, she seems more than a bit confused about what the vote was about, it wasn't about iron dome weapons, but bulldozers and large bombs. It comes across poorly on her part in terms of competence, but not malicious, aka Fetterman-tier.
I think the core element for the hate and frustration with Fetterman is not isolated to the single banned topic. It's not the primary element at all.
Fetterman is consistently taking an antagonistic approach to our base, and finding the most absurd chances to align with senate republicans on major matters. He opposed the shutdown for ACA subsidies, and opposes the shutdown over DHS/ICE. Supports the tariffs introduced over the last 18 months. Supports Greenland joining the US, even if he didn't state explicit support for military annexation. Opposes war powers resolutions to block military action against Venezuela or Iran.
The pattern there seems to be less ideological than in reveling in our response to his actions, and him choosing high profile cases specifically to deviate from party orthodoxy as a result.
He doesn't just take his stance but frequently ties it with some statement attacking anyone who disagrees with it as some out of touch idiot extremist on the left. He is enjoying how we react. He's not like Manchin or Sinema in that sense but more like Lieberman instead.
The consistency and method of his actions are why he's hated by our party now.
I know that this is not strictly election race related but I just had to post it.
Looks like uncle tom and gorsuch are starting to get their wish.
It looks like new york times v sullivan may be starting to be gotten rid of.
Oddly enough it may be the new york times that gets rid of their own case.
The alabama ssc (yes the same one that ruled that frozen eggs are living breathing children under state law) has ruled that the new york times must give up its confidential informants.
Alabama Supreme Court limits reporter privilege in NY Times lawsuit
https://www.courthousenews.com/alabama-supreme-court-limits-reporter-privilege-in-ny-times-lawsuit/
Between this and the scrotus saying it is legal to jail journalists and cadet bonespurs threatening that as well I feel that the new york times v sullivan is gone.
'Give it up or go to jail': Trump issues open threat to journalist at White House event - Raw Story
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-2676670655/
A Texas woman was jailed for 'basic journalism'. Supreme Court declines case
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/03/23/supreme-court-case-citizen-journalist-appeal/88086502007/
Justice Sonia Sotomayor dissented from the decision to not take the case, calling it a 'grave error.' 'It should be obvious this arrest violated the First Amendment,' she said.
Supreme Court rejects appeal from online citizen journalist over her arrest in Texas
https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-texas-journalist-arrest-dd58304fb47ab000c5d318bb5033b93c
US Supreme Court turns away online Texas journalist's case over arrest
https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-supreme-court-turns-away-online-texas-journalists-case-over-arrest-2026-03-23/
Supreme Court rejects citizen journalist's case against Texas officials who arrested her for reporting
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-rejects-citizen-journalists-case-texas-officials-arreste-rcna252422
Supreme Court upholds ruling in case of Texas journalist's arrest
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/news/supreme-court-upholds-ruling-in-case-of-texas-journalist-s-arrest/ar-AA1ZeBMi
Supreme Court rejects appeal from online citizen journalist over her arrest in Texas
https://www.oaoa.com/local-news/courts/supreme-court-rejects-appeal-from-online-citizen-journalist-over-her-arrest-in-texas/
US Supreme Court Turns Away Online Texas Journalist's Case Over Arrest
https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2026-03-23/us-supreme-court-turns-away-online-texas-journalists-case-over-arrest