So polls underestimated Trump (again), by about 2-3 points in all seven swing states and nationally, presuming the pop vote closes to about Trump +1.5 in the end. Needless to say it missed in a number of lightly polled safe states as well, though some pollsters (NYT/Siena...long sigh...) were way better than others. Generally speaking the major online panel pollsters (YouGov, Morning Consult) were trash. Bad year for TIPP, CNN, Fox, Marist, Marquette, Monmouth. Quinnipiac was ??? before the election and remains ??? after. F-tier pollsters include Focaldata, Research Co, RMG research, Bullfinch Group, and the disreputable king of them all St. Pete Polls in Florida. As for Selzer she lets her polls float, is what it is. Trafalgar/Insider Advantage get no credit because they just show Republicans up 1-3 points every time in every race and sometimes they're right. Stopped clocks right twice a day!
Polling post-mortem: https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1855226801812836636
So polls underestimated Trump (again), by about 2-3 points in all seven swing states and nationally, presuming the pop vote closes to about Trump +1.5 in the end. Needless to say it missed in a number of lightly polled safe states as well, though some pollsters (NYT/Siena...long sigh...) were way better than others. Generally speaking the major online panel pollsters (YouGov, Morning Consult) were trash. Bad year for TIPP, CNN, Fox, Marist, Marquette, Monmouth. Quinnipiac was ??? before the election and remains ??? after. F-tier pollsters include Focaldata, Research Co, RMG research, Bullfinch Group, and the disreputable king of them all St. Pete Polls in Florida. As for Selzer she lets her polls float, is what it is. Trafalgar/Insider Advantage get no credit because they just show Republicans up 1-3 points every time in every race and sometimes they're right. Stopped clocks right twice a day!
LEAD CHANGE: George Whitesides (D) is now ahead of GOP Rep. Mike Garcia in #CA27.
This is the still-uncalled district in Los Angeles County. After today's batch, Whitesides leads Garcia by 0.8% (2,114 votes).